Oil: how low can it go?
Discussion
Charlie1986 said:
R8Steve said:
It's not so much that extra demand is required, simply less supply.
I am long on oil and have bought physical shares this morning in a few of the mid level oilies. Ithica, Genel, Premier and Tullow. When the turn happens i can see big upwards corrections across the sector.
I could be wrong of course and it's pretty much going against every analysts thoughts but such a thought process has worked for me in the past.
Premier Oil suspended, As a newbie is this good news or bad news? I am long on oil and have bought physical shares this morning in a few of the mid level oilies. Ithica, Genel, Premier and Tullow. When the turn happens i can see big upwards corrections across the sector.
I could be wrong of course and it's pretty much going against every analysts thoughts but such a thought process has worked for me in the past.
Now, that could be taken several ways - It's hard to understand why they would be acquiring assets in this market with their current debt levels but I've heard that they are purchasing EONs North Sea assets. The confusion over the reverse takeover is simply because PMO's mCap is so low at the moment and the acquisition may be more than the current mCap
R8Steve said:
It all depends on the deal tbh, the RNS states 'Premier's ordinary shares have been suspended from trading on the London Stock Exchange with effect from 7.30am this morning pending an announcement of a potential acquisition of assets by Premier which may be classified as a reverse takeover under the FCA Listing Rules. Therefore, the Company has requested the temporary suspension of trading in its ordinary shares whilst clarification is sought from the UKLA.'
Now, that could be taken several ways - It's hard to understand why they would be acquiring assets in this market with their current debt levels but I've heard that they are purchasing EONs North Sea assets. The confusion over the reverse takeover is simply because PMO's mCap is so low at the moment and the acquisition may be more than the current mCap
R8Steve thanks for the info, Well hopefully its good news as I bought some yesterday that I was going to let and sit for a the year then have a think so will let this play out then see. ( but Tesco has risen nicely for so any loss is cancelled out by this) Now, that could be taken several ways - It's hard to understand why they would be acquiring assets in this market with their current debt levels but I've heard that they are purchasing EONs North Sea assets. The confusion over the reverse takeover is simply because PMO's mCap is so low at the moment and the acquisition may be more than the current mCap
Charlie1986 said:
R8Steve said:
It all depends on the deal tbh, the RNS states 'Premier's ordinary shares have been suspended from trading on the London Stock Exchange with effect from 7.30am this morning pending an announcement of a potential acquisition of assets by Premier which may be classified as a reverse takeover under the FCA Listing Rules. Therefore, the Company has requested the temporary suspension of trading in its ordinary shares whilst clarification is sought from the UKLA.'
Now, that could be taken several ways - It's hard to understand why they would be acquiring assets in this market with their current debt levels but I've heard that they are purchasing EONs North Sea assets. The confusion over the reverse takeover is simply because PMO's mCap is so low at the moment and the acquisition may be more than the current mCap
R8Steve thanks for the info, Well hopefully its good news as I bought some yesterday that I was going to let and sit for a the year then have a think so will let this play out then see. ( but Tesco has risen nicely for so any loss is cancelled out by this) Now, that could be taken several ways - It's hard to understand why they would be acquiring assets in this market with their current debt levels but I've heard that they are purchasing EONs North Sea assets. The confusion over the reverse takeover is simply because PMO's mCap is so low at the moment and the acquisition may be more than the current mCap
Good to hear you are in tesco as well, i am too - looking good for 170ish this week.
Apologies for the thread o/t. Back to Oil (which i'm glad to see getting a bit of a wriggle on)
NRS said:
I thought it was pretty clear from the title that it was just north sea jobs? Unless they edited the title afterwards? I would guess quite a lot of the worldwide jobs are people working in petrol stations. I know when we sold our petrol stations it was around 1/3 of the employees in the company that moved with them.
The job cuts announced yesterday relate to the "Upstream" part - finding, drilling, extracting. 1 in 5 to go, not just in the north sea. Approx 4000 out of approx 24,000."Downstream" - refining, selling etc will see similar cuts.
JungleJim said:
The job cuts announced yesterday relate to the "Upstream" part - finding, drilling, extracting. 1 in 5 to go, not just in the north sea. Approx 4000 out of approx 24,000.
"Downstream" - refining, selling etc will see similar cuts.
There is a s"Downstream" - refining, selling etc will see similar cuts.
t sight more than 24,000 people in BP's upstream BU globally, though.R8Steve said:
As i'm sure we've discussed on other threads, it's all a gamble at the end of the day, I've made a load of money on it on the way down, i now feel the tide is turning and, as you say, i am now long on oil. You pays yer money, you take yer chances 
Oil now in positive terms intraday as i type this.
Could take quite a while... USA about the start exporting oil for the first time in 40 years and Saudi's mortal enemy Iran about to open the taps as well.Oil now in positive terms intraday as i type this.
The any amount the Saudi's back off, the Iranians will just fill.
I can't see oil going back up for some time.
Checking-in as an O&G worker who has been looking over his shoulder for the last 12 months!
I'm not 'in' any oil investments at the moment but there definitely appears to be some value if you firmly believe in the potential for big upside.
A war in the ME would shake things up. How bad can tensions between the Saudis and Iranians get? Not that I am wishing or want for that!!
My job is secure at the moment but if any more projects get delayed, I'll no doubt be out on my ear!
I'm not 'in' any oil investments at the moment but there definitely appears to be some value if you firmly believe in the potential for big upside.
A war in the ME would shake things up. How bad can tensions between the Saudis and Iranians get? Not that I am wishing or want for that!!
My job is secure at the moment but if any more projects get delayed, I'll no doubt be out on my ear!
skyrover said:
Could take quite a while... USA about the start exporting oil for the first time in 40 years and Saudi's mortal enemy Iran about to open the taps as well.
The any amount the Saudi's back off, the Iranians will just fill.
I can't see oil going back up for some time.
Agreed, this one will be for the long haul me thinks, sure we've had depressions like this before, but a lot more external factors are taking their toll on the price of a barrell this time around IMO. I'm predicting no price increase throughout 2016 and minimal gains throughout 2017. Fifty dollars a barrell, tops, if lucky, although percentage wise that's a fair bit I suppose The any amount the Saudi's back off, the Iranians will just fill.
I can't see oil going back up for some time.
OPEC played a big hand a big ballsey hand and it's backfired big time. Sure they might not have realised it coincided with China's issues but none the less they have boxed themselves in now.
Once price goes above $50 shale oil taps will be turned on preventing prices going North
USA played a blinder too - for decades forcing other countries to pump and pump their natural resource until it's low (ish) and then suddenly they can turn the taps on themselves totally transforming the market.
Sadly from a UK perspective a lot of jobs have and will be lost - highly skilled and highly paid. Our income tax in reality should increase now that we know UK oil tax revenues are essentially nothing.
Once price goes above $50 shale oil taps will be turned on preventing prices going North
USA played a blinder too - for decades forcing other countries to pump and pump their natural resource until it's low (ish) and then suddenly they can turn the taps on themselves totally transforming the market.
Sadly from a UK perspective a lot of jobs have and will be lost - highly skilled and highly paid. Our income tax in reality should increase now that we know UK oil tax revenues are essentially nothing.
Gandahar said:
I wonder how long the Saudi's will make everyone bleed for? Quite a bit longer if Iran and they are still having this spat I guess. Can't be too many people who can punish both Iran and USA at one go ! 
Ironically of course this is one of the arguments for wind etc, only God can turn on/ off the taps. Pro's and con's for all energy sources of course.
It's a bad argument for wind; without subsidy there wouldn't be a 'wind industry' and even if it was economic it would have no effect on the oil price. Other than that it's really relevant.Ironically of course this is one of the arguments for wind etc, only God can turn on/ off the taps. Pro's and con's for all energy sources of course.
Saudi are punishing themselves as much as everyone else; they've gone from a budget surplus 18 months ago to a whopping deficit.
FredClogs said:
Fella said on the radio the other day in relation to this "They didn't end the stone age because of a lack of stones"
The reality is we've talked ourselves into ending the dependency on oil, maybe a bit prematurely, and there's probably no going back from this point.
Quoted for when oil continues to be the lifeblood of capitalism well beyond 2050. the stone age ended when they invented bronze, give us a call when they actually replace oil.The reality is we've talked ourselves into ending the dependency on oil, maybe a bit prematurely, and there's probably no going back from this point.
hidetheelephants said:
Quoted for when oil continues to be the lifeblood of capitalism well beyond 2050. the stone age ended when they invented bronze, give us a call when they actually replace oil.
Indeed... the global economy is dependent on oil far beyond personal transport.Plastics, synthetic fibers, solvents, paints, commercial/mass transport fuels, all of which need oil and have no viable alternatives
number 46 said:
Well its dropping again after a fair bounce yesterday which caught me out a little I've now doing quite well again. I still think that there is some more downside before we go back up.
Have to agree. It could be very soon we get news about the sanctions being removed from Iran, which will probably cause a drop. It's probably not too much later after that when we would hit the bottom I think. My company thinks we're below the actual economic reasons for the current oil price and that the low price is now driven by market sentiment. However it will take a bit of time to recover due to the amount of oil in storage etc.NRS said:
number 46 said:
Well its dropping again after a fair bounce yesterday which caught me out a little I've now doing quite well again. I still think that there is some more downside before we go back up.
Have to agree. It could be very soon we get news about the sanctions being removed from Iran, which will probably cause a drop. It's probably not too much later after that when we would hit the bottom I think. My company thinks we're below the actual economic reasons for the current oil price and that the low price is now driven by market sentiment. However it will take a bit of time to recover due to the amount of oil in storage etc.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff