Oil: how low can it go?

Author
Discussion

NRS

22,133 posts

201 months

Tuesday 15th December 2015
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A lot of us got the same deal a few months ago. They haven't had a big application for them (not sure why, wink) so have extended it to the whole company. However it's conditional so if they require your skills they will still turn you down even if you have applied. The people I know who took the previous round are leaving the industry to do other things (PhD, become a teacher etc.). The package with the biggest acceptance is the early retirement package, which is very very good.

Tell me about it, transferring money home is horrible now compared to a few years ago.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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$36 a barrel now, its lowest since 2004.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35152037

Steve vRS

4,845 posts

241 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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It's too low now. The result will be that many projects will be put on hold and older assets decommissioned meaning that in a couple of years time, the supply will be vulnerable, apart from the baddies (RSA, Russia etc.).

Back up to $70-80 would be nice. Low enough to keep fuel costs reasonable but high enough for the North Sea to operate biggrin

Steve

ukwill

8,903 posts

207 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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On paper I've lost a fair bit on oil over the past 18mths. I'm left holding the paper, hoping that we'll see a turn, but I just can't see it occuring in the next few years. Which makes me weeping I just hope the company I invested in can ride the storm...

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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Steve vRS said:
It's too low now. The result will be that many projects will be put on hold and older assets decommissioned meaning that in a couple of years time, the supply will be vulnerable, apart from the baddies (RSA, Russia etc.).

Back up to $70-80 would be nice. Low enough to keep fuel costs reasonable but high enough for the North Sea to operate biggrin

Steve
perhaps it will give the north sea a bit of time to refill again biggrin

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm

Johnnytheboy

24,498 posts

186 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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Every time I read a thread like this, I remember that smug eco phrase "peak oil" and have a little chuckle.

turbobloke

103,863 posts

260 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
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Johnnytheboy said:
Every time I read a thread like this, I remember that smug eco phrase "peak oil" and have a little chuckle.
Watch out for peak renewables wink

NRS

22,133 posts

201 months

Tuesday 22nd December 2015
quotequote all
ukwill said:
On paper I've lost a fair bit on oil over the past 18mths. I'm left holding the paper, hoping that we'll see a turn, but I just can't see it occuring in the next few years. Which makes me weeping I just hope the company I invested in can ride the storm...
If you were active you could have done a lot of shorting and repositioned yourself for the upturn in x many years. Think you could still do it now, but closer to the bottom so more risky. What company is it that you're in?

RDMcG

19,139 posts

207 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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Well...looks like $30 is approaching. I think it will go lower.

Edited by RDMcG on Thursday 7th January 12:41

turbobloke

103,863 posts

260 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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RDMcG said:
Well...looks like $30 is approaching. I then it will go lower.
Quite possible.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/...

Link said:
Brent oil will slump to $30 in the next 10 days, according to Nomura Holdings Inc., while UBS Group AG sees an oversupply pushing prices even lower.

2fast748

1,091 posts

195 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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skyrover said:
perhaps it will give the north sea a bit of time to refill again biggrin

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm
I read that article and thought it was quite interesting, then I went to the sites homepage......

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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Indy ref SNP Scotland were banking on $110 per barrel - good job it was a bonus and not a component part to their budget.


I wonder how Norway is looking now?

NRS

22,133 posts

201 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Indy ref SNP Scotland were banking on $110 per barrel - good job it was a bonus and not a component part to their budget.


I wonder how Norway is looking now?
Absolutely screwed over here! Lots of jobs gone. Statoil has offered everyone in the company a voluntary redundancy package for example. Kroner value has fallen off a cliff. Think we haven't got to a big housing market collapse yet, but think it will be dropping in some places soon (Stavanger for example). At least there is a massive government savings account though, unlike what Scotland would have had.

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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2fast748 said:
skyrover said:
perhaps it will give the north sea a bit of time to refill again biggrin

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm
I read that article and thought it was quite interesting, then I went to the sites homepage......
fair does... here's the NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/26/science/geochemi...

Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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I wonder how long the Saudi's will make everyone bleed for? Quite a bit longer if Iran and they are still having this spat I guess. Can't be too many people who can punish both Iran and USA at one go ! biggrin

Ironically of course this is one of the arguments for wind etc, only God can turn on/ off the taps. Pro's and con's for all energy sources of course.






Edited by Gandahar on Thursday 7th January 13:47

number 46

1,019 posts

248 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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I'm calling $25 !!! there you go!

Smollet

10,528 posts

190 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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number 46 said:
I'm calling $25 !!! there you go!
I reckon we'll see $20

turbobloke

103,863 posts

260 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
quotequote all
2fast748 said:
skyrover said:
perhaps it will give the north sea a bit of time to refill again biggrin

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm
I read that article and thought it was quite interesting, then I went to the sites homepage......
Take a break from shooting the messenger! If you found the concept of deep / abiotic oil to be of interest there are several other sources.

http://www.gasresources.net/

http://principia-scientific.org/the-true-origin-of...

It's quite some time since researchers at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm proved that fossils from animals and plants are not necessary for crude oil and natural gas to be present, but the topic remains highly controversial.

R8Steve

4,150 posts

175 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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Smollet said:
number 46 said:
I'm calling $25 !!! there you go!
I reckon we'll see $20
I'm going against the trend then with a long from $33.50! I don't think we'll see much lower.

GT03ROB

13,262 posts

221 months

Thursday 7th January 2016
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Only need Saudi & Iran to continue their current fall out & it will rise very rapidly!!

My client here (Kuwait Oil Company) are reckoning on $20!