Can we talk about Germany for a bit?

[Hugo a Gogo]

Hugh Jarse said:

Maybe you dont understand population pyramids, even if tomorrow everybody had 2.2 kids, the population would still go up at least twice over one life time, because the pyramid changes to a rectangle over time.

erm, not it doesn't

unless everybody lives to the exact same age

[Hugh Jarse]

Hugo a Gogo said:

erm, not it doesn't, unless everybody lives to the exact same age

Hence I used 2.2 children to factor for that, not even factoring people are living longer.
So Syria pop 4m in 1950, now 24m, will be 48m in the lifetime of the children there.
That's assuming they stick to 2.2, which seems unlikely given cultural factors, religion and tradition.
You asked for evidence on the UK Muslim expansion above, yet you were already provided with hard facts from Oxford University on the previous page.

The MENA wars and or people exports from populous Islamic countries are not going to stop.
Nobody understands what the EU is doing "you are welcome", "but you are not welcome and must stay in Turkey" seems to be the message to refugees. Seems a very chaotic approach without any logic. I hope the region finds stability because it was the cradle of civilisation, but due to demographics, cannot see that happening in the near future, pity.
The discussion on Islamic expansion is not going to go away.

[Hugo a Gogo]

Hugh Jarse said:

Hence I used 2.2 children to factor for that, not even factoring people are living longer.
So Syria pop 4m in 1950, now 24m, will be 48m in the lifetime of the children there.
That's assuming they stick to 2.2, which seems unlikely given cultural factors, religion and tradition.

and assuming they don't all get killed or leave before having kids, and that won't be 48 million young blokes as you were suggesting

no people in modern cities have that many kids, no-one in a war zone has that many kids, I doubt very many people in Syria had that many kids, it was an expensive modern developed 'western' place in Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, before it went tits-up

Hugh Jarse said:

You asked for evidence on the UK Muslim expansion above, yet you were already provided with hard facts from Oxford University on the previous page.

I did? I asked where you got your figure of 8 kids per woman, I thought you were talking about Syria

anyway, it's all gone off on a wild tangent, so ah'm oot

[Hugh Jarse]

Hugo a Gogo said:

I did? I asked where you got your figure of 8 kids per woman, I thought you were talking about Syria
anyway, it's all gone off on a wild tangent, so ah'm oot

Yes you did, several posters including you at 1753 claimed the increase in UK muslim population was anecdotal despite me supplying a report by a Professor of Sociology at Oxford supporting the facts.

The tangent was created because several posters thought the EU was to blame for the civil war in Syria.
Then I suggested it was due to an explosion in population, increasing five times in two generations.
Then several posters including you claimed this was not the case and that Syria was having 2 kids per family.
The facts, pyramids and population increases have been supplied and there is no escaping from that.

IMO Europe is not obliged to take countries populations when they overspill/have civil wars due to kettled up over population, but we should help rebuild and stabilise those populations so they can enjoy quality of life in the future in their countries and zones of responsibility. This open border crap to chaotic populations is very disturbing.

The main worry is this.
Big families = increasing tension = reduced opportunities for youth = radicalisation = divisions in society = civil strife = ooooo look our country is unsafe = now we are coming to Europe = ahhhh but we are going to carry on with the culture that fked up our own country = and spread it to your country = the cycle of misery proliferates.
Thus we import chaos instead of exporting order which solves nothing.

As an engineer Im interested in solving problems not clutching my handbag and saying, oooo isnt it terrible for them. Lets also solve it while not breaking up the EU as is happening IMO. All instigated mainly by Merkel's shortsighted virtue signalling which is not particularly helpful to Syria's overall situation. An expensive way to achieve very little.

Thanks Hugo for asking questions so that I provided data to back up the claims. Sorry to have dominated the discussion for the last few pages, ill also take a break.

[Sam All]

Zod said:

So no evidence, just anecdotal.

All anecdotal, nothing to see here move on.

Ever wondered why the Issue is raised so often,even by the PM.

[robm3]

History is going to look very dimly on Merkel I suspect...

[MikeT66]

Hugh Jarse said:

Yes you did, several posters including you at 1753 claimed the increase in UK muslim population was anecdotal despite me supplying a report by a Professor of Sociology at Oxford supporting the facts.

The tangent was created because several posters thought the EU was to blame for the civil war in Syria.
Then I suggested it was due to an explosion in population, increasing five times in two generations.
Then several posters including you claimed this was not the case and that Syria was having 2 kids per family.
The facts, pyramids and population increases have been supplied and there is no escaping from that.

IMO Europe is not obliged to take countries populations when they overspill/have civil wars due to kettled up over population, but we should help rebuild and stabilise those populations so they can enjoy quality of life in the future in their countries and zones of responsibility. This open border crap to chaotic populations is very disturbing.

The main worry is this.
Big families = increasing tension = reduced opportunities for youth = radicalisation = divisions in society = civil strife = ooooo look our country is unsafe = now we are coming to Europe = ahhhh but we are going to carry on with the culture that fked up our own country = and spread it to your country = the cycle of misery proliferates.
Thus we import chaos instead of exporting order which solves nothing.

As an engineer Im interested in solving problems not clutching my handbag and saying, oooo isnt it terrible for them. Lets also solve it while not breaking up the EU as is happening IMO. All instigated mainly by Merkel's shortsighted virtue signalling which is not particularly helpful to Syria's overall situation. An expensive way to achieve very little.

Thanks Hugo for asking questions so that I provided data to back up the claims. Sorry to have dominated the discussion for the last few pages, ill also take a break.

Superb post.

[Digga]

Sam All said:

Zod said:

So no evidence, just anecdotal.

All anecdotal, nothing to see here move on.

Ever wondered why the Issue is raised so often,even by the PM.

After pure, mindless bigotry, the next most ignorant stance is debate-quashing and denial. Sweeping stuff under the carpet rarely solves anything.

[Dog Star]

Hugh Jarse said:

When I was born world population in 1970 was 3.7 billion, when I die peacefully hopefully, i expect the world to be way over 10 billion. Not good.

Hugh Jarse speaks more sense than anyone on this thread.

As an aside and not really on-topic there's an elephant in the climate change room here too with this massive population explosion - all this greenhouse gas business directly correlates to the fact that the population of the planet is rising so fast, surely?

I read somewhere that the optimum human population would be about a billion and a half. Another fifty years of this? I'll be dead in 30 or 40 and I'm glad, genuinely glad, that I've not brought kids into this world.

[Digga]

Dog Star said:

Hugh Jarse said:

When I was born world population in 1970 was 3.7 billion, when I die peacefully hopefully, i expect the world to be way over 10 billion. Not good.

Hugh Jarse speaks more sense than anyone on this thread.

As an aside and not really on-topic there's an elephant in the climate change room here too with this massive population explosion - all this greenhouse gas business directly correlates to the fact that the population of the planet is rising so fast, surely?

I read somewhere that the optimum human population would be about a billion and a half. Another fifty years of this? I'll be dead in 30 or 40 and I'm glad, genuinely glad, that I've not brought kids into this world.

Could not agree more with everything you've said here - my sentiments exactly. I know Malthusianism is not de-rigeur, but you cannot argue with the logic that any and every human life consumes a huge amount of resources and that whilst Western lives are often the worst culprits, they are by no means the only. Shanghai smog is an example.

[scherzkeks]

Hugh Jarse said:

I hope the region finds stability because it was the cradle of civilisation, but due to the bombs, cannot see that happening in the near future, pity.

Fixed.

[Jinx]

Digga said:

Could not agree more with everything you've said here - my sentiments exactly. I know Malthusianism is not de-rigeur, but you cannot argue with the logic that any and every human life consumes a huge amount of resources and that whilst Western lives are often the worst culprits, they are by no means the only. Shanghai smog is an example.

Energy is neither created nor destroyed. We do not consume anything - rent it for a bit then it all goes back. CO2 in the air is use by plants to grow. The sun is the main source of all our energy and not due to run out of hydrogen for a long time yet. The earth can support many more billions than it does at the moment - poor distribution is the primary problem. The earth is 2/3rds ocean and the land is vastly unpopulated.

[Liokault]

Jinx said:

The earth can support many more billions than it does at the moment - poor distribution is the primary problem. The earth is 2/3rds ocean and the land is vastly unpopulated.

Support vastly more with a 1st world life style, or support vastly more with a 3rd world life style?

[Digga]

Jinx said:

The earth can support many more billions than it does at the moment - poor distribution is the primary problem.

Poor distribution is merely a symptom of an abject lack of development and civilisation in large parts of the world and in particular the MENA. There's no fixing that fast, but what is beginning to happen, in increasing numbers, is an exodus of people fleeing those conditions and heading to the developed world, exacerbating crowding and calls on resources there, whilst at the same time, removing skills and workforce required for any development to take place.

[Zod]

Dog Star said:

Hugh Jarse said:

When I was born world population in 1970 was 3.7 billion, when I die peacefully hopefully, i expect the world to be way over 10 billion. Not good.

Hugh Jarse speaks more sense than anyone on this thread.

As an aside and not really on-topic there's an elephant in the climate change room here too with this massive population explosion - all this greenhouse gas business directly correlates to the fact that the population of the planet is rising so fast, surely?

I read somewhere that the optimum human population would be about a billion and a half. Another fifty years of this? I'll be dead in 30 or 40 and I'm glad, genuinely glad, that I've not brought kids into this world.

What a depressingly negative view of the world! Perhaps you should just go to Dignitas today and do your bit.

[Hugo a Gogo]

Hugh Jarse said:

Yes you did, several posters including you at 1753 claimed the increase in UK muslim population was anecdotal despite me supplying a report by a Professor of Sociology at Oxford supporting the facts.

I said nothing of the kind

[Esseesse]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Certainly our 'recovery' since 2008 has been weak, without mass immigration it would be far weaker. Apart from this I suspect Blair also considered Britain was/is too British.

[anonymous-user]

Another child molested

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3524048/Tw...

[Pony]

Some (local) news since Thursday last week. Only violent and/or sexual crime included (excluding the usual robberies, too many of those), to keep the list manageable.

Sexual:

Heilbronn: rape
Rendsburg: sex assault on two nine-year old girls (swimming pool)
Brueck: attempted rape
Unna: attempted rape
Halle (Saale): sex assault
Dietzenbach: three rapes
Chemnitz: attempted rape
Eichstaett: attempted rapes
Hattingen: sexual and physical assault
Hude: sexual assault on 11-year old girl (swimming pool)
Munich: sexual and physical assault
Wismar: sexual assaults on 8 and 13-year old girls (swimming pool)
Waldkraiburg: sexual assault
Puch/Hallein: sexual assaults, physical assault
Delbrueck: sexual assault on schoolboys in swimming pool; one of them raped in locker room
Feldkirch: highly violent group assault ("I'm going to stab your eyes out")
Stuttgart: sexual assault, public masturbation (@BuckFelize)
Hagenow: sexual assault on 14-year old girl
Hamburg: violent gang rape, woman hospitalised
Siegen: sexual assaults
Freiburg: sexual assault
Emmendingen: three massive sexual assaults in five days
Osnabrueck: sexual group assault
Steinfurt: sexual assault, exposure
Hude: attempted rape
Meschede: sex attacks
Halberstadt: group sexual assault on 13-year old girl, also being filmed by perpetrators
Harburg: violent rapist and (near) murderer escaped from care home
Gaggenau: sexual assault
Wetzlar: sexual assault, public masturbation
Puchheim: attempted rape
Stuttgart: violent sexual assault
Zuerich: violent sexual assault
Greiz: sexual assaults on children
Haar: violent gang rape
Eschwege: rape of very young child
Freiburg: violent sexual group assault

Violent:

Graz: mass brawl
Neuss: massive group assault on local, coma
Walsrode: stabbing
Hamm: stabbing
Freiburg: mass brawl, GBH
Babenhausen: mass brawl
Bielefeld: stabbing
Bonn: murder
Jesteburg: GBH
Jesteburg (again): stabbing
Seevetal: GBH
Rostock: mass brawl, GBH
Nuremberg: GBH / attempted murder of police officer
Wohlen: group GBH / attempted murder against locals
Felde: stabbing
Haar: mass brawl, tried to rip firearms off police officers
Peine: mass assault on local
Damme: stabbing
Ludwigshafen: unprovoked assaults
Lindau: attempted murder
Duisburg: group assault on locals
Heilbronn: mass brawls
Brugg: murder
Rathenow: random assault on local
Kandel: mass brawl, GBH
Leipzig: group assault on local
Bad Nauheim: attempted murder
Winterberg: murder (because the victim was a kuffar)
Hildesheim: massively violent assaults on dog owners, perpetrators coming from local mosque
Dusseldorf: mass violence & criminal damage as Syrians didn't want to be checked by female ticket inspector
Sonneberg: random group assault on locals / GBH, attempted murder
Fellbach: mass brawl, GBH
Chemnitz: stabbing / attempted murder
Munich: mass brawl
Chemnitz: stabbing / attempted murder
Essen: murder
Harburg: stabbing
Bozen: random stabbings
Vienna: violent assault on hospital staff
Bad Homburg: stabbing
Hanover: murder
Cologne: random stabbing of local
Hameln: massive group assault on local post delivery man
Wald-Michelbach: GBH
Erkelenz: GBH
Feldkirch: stabbing
Salzburg: massively violent group assault on local, GBH
Zweibruecken: GBH


all of these incidents occurred over 4 days

I've grabbed this list from another forum. the original post contains all the sources

http://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/the-great...

[irocfan]

to be fair though - how many of those are down to II's rather than 'normal' crime?