RBS: Panic! Sell everything! Meltdown looming!
Discussion
hornetrider said:
Awesome news.It's probably about time we gave something else a try, eh? Like giving poor people some money... The thing is with giving poor people money is that they're almost always likely to just spend it, and if they do gamble with it it's on lotterys and horse races and that, you know - stuff that easy to understand.
Ever since we've started letting rich people look after the money things have gone to s
t.Have been expecting this type of news for some time now. Looks like The Telegraph is sharpening its economic pencils as they also reported this yesterday http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/house-...
Know a number of financiers who've been liquidating non-core assets for some 12 months now...add China, oil pricing, the worsening EU debacle, continual bad debt, Euro immigration and the extreme associated financial stress, Russia's faltering economy...
How long will it be before the much needed financial re-adjustment begins? And more importantly, with inflation at near 0%, how will the BoE control excessive deflation when the downturn arrives?
Or will Brussels and London simply sweep this under the carpet again with QE?
Know a number of financiers who've been liquidating non-core assets for some 12 months now...add China, oil pricing, the worsening EU debacle, continual bad debt, Euro immigration and the extreme associated financial stress, Russia's faltering economy...
How long will it be before the much needed financial re-adjustment begins? And more importantly, with inflation at near 0%, how will the BoE control excessive deflation when the downturn arrives?
Or will Brussels and London simply sweep this under the carpet again with QE?
FartKong said:
Any predictions on how this will affect the housing market? Our house is almost sold and its looking like it may be a good idea to hold off buying anything if its anything like the 2008 crash.
My guess (and it's just that) is that the property market is so fked up in the UK that houses (especially in the south east) are now considered a safe asset class. We're likely to see even more money piling in to the market in the short term if people start selling shares. I think buying would be a decent move, we won't be seeing a rate rise this year IMO.Ilovejapcrap said:
Can someone explain what's going on in basic speak.
I'm assuming another crash of the market is on the way ? Recession ? What ?
Have you seen the film trading places? I'm assuming another crash of the market is on the way ? Recession ? What ?
Well a couple of old fellas gambled on the price of oranges going up and they went down. Eddie Murphy is now running the Beijing trading floor and no one's notice how much Jamie Lee Curtis has aged (although I defo still would)
Ilovejapcrap said:
Can someone explain what's going on in basic speak.
I'm assuming another crash of the market is on the way ? Recession ? What ?
It's tricky to say. China's weird - many small investors, very prone to panicking if the market turns. There was a bubble there and the market still looks maybe 10% too high to my eye (just by looking at the graphs, no fancy analysis). That compounds the oil situation - China is nervous and is buying less, the US is drilling and buying less and the Dollar is gaining value rapidly due to the interest rate rise, and Saudi Arabia hasn't turned the taps off.I'm assuming another crash of the market is on the way ? Recession ? What ?
The UK stock market (especially the FTSE100) is heavily weighted towards oil and other commodities, which means that if commodities go south (and if oil does, generally they all do) so does the Footsie.
The markets are so risk averse that they've started pricing it in already though, so this isn't going to be a global bubble like last time. The problem is that if there's a local bubble in the UK or the EU there's not a whole lot that the government can do about it.
FartKong said:
Our house is almost sold and its looking like it may be a good idea to hold off buying anything if its anything like the 2008 crash.
Tricky one. I would probably hold off from buying if I was selling. But then you still have to pay rental in the meantime and for how long? Unless you have more than 1 home - then you play the long game.fido said:
Tricky one. I would probably hold off from buying if I was selling. But then you still have to pay rental in the meantime and for how long? Unless you have more than 1 home - then you play the long game.
Simple maths: if prices fall, the gap between your current house and the next will be smaller. I'm not in the market now, but I would not consider buying unless we're talking Midlands and Northern market towns not already overvalued.
Buying in London only if I had a nine figure sum to get out of somewhere and diversify into assets. Otherwise, madness. Probably the most overvalued housing market in history.
It may be alarmist but surely one of the issues of 2008 was that no-one was even aware that things were starting to go wrong? At least this time around some are pointing to the ocean and saying, "Erm....should we be preparing for whatever that is...?"
Housing market is still ridiculously overpriced, the gap between average earnings and average house price still means most on even a decent wage can't afford much - certainly in the southeast.
Housing market is still ridiculously overpriced, the gap between average earnings and average house price still means most on even a decent wage can't afford much - certainly in the southeast.
Axionknight said:
You should see the price of a place in Hong Kong it you think London is expensive! Although people have been touting that for a slump - we shall see.
I did 2 weeks ago .. was walking around Yau Ma Tei looking for a flat .. it's like Geneva where the cheapest place starts at £1m! "Simple maths: if prices fall, the gap between your current house and the next will be smaller."
well that only works if you have a small bid/ask spread and lots of liquidity which is the opposite of what happens in every slump - I had to sell and buy in 2009 and can tell you it was no fun.
Edited by fido on Tuesday 12th January 10:28
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