RBS: Panic! Sell everything! Meltdown looming!

RBS: Panic! Sell everything! Meltdown looming!

Author
Discussion

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
Since the government are fumbling around in the dark (because none of them have a fking clue how the rest of us generate the tax revenues they leech from) with the productivity conundrum, it might be an idea if people of all professions suggested a good place to start was our road transport network. Polishing turds by adding the odd extra lane or variable speed limits is merely a sticking plaster.

Increasing the mobility of goods services and labour has to be a good thing, as does reducing general overheads of GDP. It's frightening to think of all the salaries and wages being paid and the productive opportunity cost in all the many and various traffic jams about the land.

turbobloke

104,042 posts

261 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Since the government are fumbling around in the dark (because none of them have a fking clue how the rest of us generate the tax revenues they leech from) with the productivity conundrum, it might be an idea if people of all professions suggested a good place to start was our road transport network. Polishing turds by adding the odd extra lane or variable speed limits is merely a sticking plaster.

Increasing the mobility of goods services and labour has to be a good thing, as does reducing general overheads of GDP. It's frightening to think of all the salaries and wages being paid and the productive opportunity cost in all the many and various traffic jams about the land.
yes

Then reduce energy taxes by scrapping the expensive and pointless Turbine Toryism strategy to achieve blackouts, reduce fuel duty rather than be tempted to increase it with low oil prices, reduce corptax more as of now, and sod the EU over red tape (leave the EU).

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
That an increase capital allowances for investment in plant and equipment. Current levels are a bloody joke; our engineering division can blow the whole lot with one fairly modestly spec 'do CNC machine tool. I'm sure Italian engineering SMEs (some of the best knitted works about IMH) get considerably better deals.

227bhp

10,203 posts

129 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
speedy_thrills said:
227bhp said:
Has there ever been a recession starting so close to another one ending?
Yes, though it depends how you define recession of course. Every 8 to 10 years you tend to get a period of negative GDP growth.

We've had a pretty good bull market and valuations now looked well stretched by some traditional measures. Companies have returned a lot to shareholders through financial engineering so have concentrated risk and return a lot over the last few years. Many are struggling with top line growth at the moment as inflation adjusted wages (partially masked by CPI recently) and productivity are little changed. It's been a good time for investors and companies to pause and reflect on the last few years.
It depends when you think the last one was over maybe, as far as The Guardian and I are concerned it only ended around two years ago.
Source: Me. smile and
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/...

I was hoping for a few more years to make some money frown

Sam All

3,101 posts

102 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?

Esseesse

8,969 posts

209 months

Sunday 7th February 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
I don't think looking at O&G companies and seeing job losses should be much of a surprise.

UK unemployment down to its lowest level in a decade.
I hear that at the start of a recession unemployment is normally low.

V8 Fettler

7,019 posts

133 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Western economies are built on confidence, that confidence fell apart in 2008 when interbank trading based on Aaa securities crap fell off a cliff. That confidence needs to be rebuilt.

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

244 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
227bhp said:
speedy_thrills said:
227bhp said:
Has there ever been a recession starting so close to another one ending?
Yes, though it depends how you define recession of course. Every 8 to 10 years you tend to get a period of negative GDP growth.

We've had a pretty good bull market and valuations now looked well stretched by some traditional measures. Companies have returned a lot to shareholders through financial engineering so have concentrated risk and return a lot over the last few years. Many are struggling with top line growth at the moment as inflation adjusted wages (partially masked by CPI recently) and productivity are little changed. It's been a good time for investors and companies to pause and reflect on the last few years.
It depends when you think the last one was over maybe, as far as The Guardian and I are concerned it only ended around two years ago.
Source: Me. smile and
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/...

I was hoping for a few more years to make some money frown
I tend to think about recession in terms of market trends that don't often correlate well to underlying economic growth. In terms of the S&P 500 growth is still well ahead of trend even given recent falls:

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
No idea. I think I'll be sticking with beef, pork and chicken though.

turbobloke

104,042 posts

261 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Sam All said:
The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
No idea. I think I'll be sticking with beef, pork and chicken though.
Likewise. And lamb chops lick

Zod

35,295 posts

259 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
Well, that's clear science, so I'm convinced.

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
Sam All said:
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
Well, that's clear science, so I'm convinced.
Actually, I blame the planets aligning. A bit more scientific but no more plausible or rigorously proven.

turbobloke

104,042 posts

261 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Zod said:
Sam All said:
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
Well, that's clear science, so I'm convinced.
Actually, I blame the planets aligning. A bit more scientific but no more plausible or rigorously proven.
Virgo rising in the age of Aquarius. It's obvious, really.

Sam All

3,101 posts

102 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
Sam All said:
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
Well, that's clear science, so I'm convinced.
How's your portfolio doing?

Glad you think the cold winds from the east have nothing to with this correction. And you think this cannot turn into a sentiment led rout.

So what's your prognosis?

wc98

10,424 posts

141 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
That an increase capital allowances for investment in plant and equipment. Current levels are a bloody joke; our engineering division can blow the whole lot with one fairly modestly spec 'do CNC machine tool. I'm sure Italian engineering SMEs (some of the best knitted works about IMH) get considerably better deals.
when i worked in the industrial ceramics industry i spent a bit of time in european end customers plants and capital equipment manufacturing plants in europe, including italy. the very first thing i noticed was they all had the latest tech ,whereas in the uk people are still working with equipment that is 50 years old plus in some cases. it is no wonder many of our manufacturing industries are struggling when costs for many things are far higher than mainland europe .

Zod

35,295 posts

259 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
Zod said:
Sam All said:
Even at 0%, cash seems a good option right now. Prefer return of capital than uncertain return on capital.

The year of the Monkey is considered unlucky year for Chinese. And the rest?
Well, that's clear science, so I'm convinced.
How's your portfolio doing?

Glad you think the cold winds from the east have nothing to with this correction. And you think this cannot turn into a sentiment led rout.

So what's your prognosis?
I blame the immigrants.

anonymous-user

55 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Sam All said:
So what's your prognosis?
That once 'retail' investors are screaming the end of the world it's time to buy.

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
wc98 said:
Digga said:
That an increase capital allowances for investment in plant and equipment. Current levels are a bloody joke; our engineering division can blow the whole lot with one fairly modestly spec 'do CNC machine tool. I'm sure Italian engineering SMEs (some of the best knitted works about IMH) get considerably better deals.
when i worked in the industrial ceramics industry i spent a bit of time in european end customers plants and capital equipment manufacturing plants in europe, including italy. the very first thing i noticed was they all had the latest tech ,whereas in the uk people are still working with equipment that is 50 years old plus in some cases. it is no wonder many of our manufacturing industries are struggling when costs for many things are far higher than mainland europe .
Quite. I've been to a number of Italian engineering firms over the years. Not all are tooled-up to the eyeballs, but the ones that are are absolutely amazing and you simply would never see any equivalent SME in the UK. Never.

One of the best specialist firms is one we've dealt with for 20 odd years. In the space of that time, and given that even back in 1999 their CNC machines on the shop floor all linked centrally to their production planning system and were laid out in optimum configuration in a workshop which was perfect for the job, they have almost doubled in size.

Sam All

3,101 posts

102 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
fblm said:
Sam All said:
So what's your prognosis?
That once 'retail' investors are screaming the end of the world it's time to buy.
The Buffett plan.

Sam All

3,101 posts

102 months

Monday 8th February 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
I blame the immigrants.
Au contraire, they provide fresh blood and keep costs contained. smile