RBS: Panic! Sell everything! Meltdown looming!

[v8250]

fblm said:

HSBC is far too big to fail.

Of no it's not. Any commercial organization can, and often does, fail; see Lehman Brothers, Enron, RBS, Bear Stearns for sanity check. However, HSBC is slightly different...they would rapidly fire sale or close their non-core loss making divisions to protect their Asian base.

fblm said:

If it did, every bank and business in the UK would go under.

No they would not. No Western Gov't would permit this to happen. Even in times of war the UK needs business to survive, product, hardware, food, clothing all has to be made and supplied.

[anonymous-user]

v8250 said:

fblm said:

HSBC is far too big to fail.

Of no it's not. Any commercial organization can, and often does, fail; see Lehman Brothers, Enron, RBS, Bear Stearns for sanity check.

However, HSBC is slightly different...they would rapidly fire sale or close their non-core loss making divisions to protect their Asian base.

Rubbish. The only relevant bank you list is RBS which I seem to recall was bailed out. As for a fire sale of loss making divisions in the event a bank like HSBC is about to go under... I'll leave you to ponder just how many bids there would be. HSBC is FAR to big to fail, it is systemically important to the global economy, it would be rescued by multiple governments if push came to shove. If you want a sanity check how many people lost money deposited in the banks in 2008?

v8250 said:

fblm said:

If it did, every bank and business in the UK would go under.

No they would not. No Western Gov't would permit this to happen.

In your eagerness to disagree you perhaps missed the bit where I said exactly that.

fblm said:

HSBC is far too big to fail...It won't be allowed to happen.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 13th January 04:42

[Digga]

Never say never. Even Green Shield Stamps had their day.

[Camoradi]

Digga said:

Never say never. Even Green Shield Stamps had their day.

What! I'm still saving them for a new radiogram

[Digga]

Camoradi said:

Digga said:

Never say never. Even Green Shield Stamps had their day.

What! I'm still saving them for a new radiogram

Sorry mate, won't even buy you so much as a crappy set of decanters.

[fido]

On the argument of who is 'too big to fail' ..

http://b-i.forbesimg.com/halahtouryalai/files/2013...

RBS and UBS are in the same lower bracket (remember they both got bailed out) whereas HBSC and JPM are in the super-league. Pretty sure they would be given the same priority as the US mortgage giants (Fannie/Freddie) which were bailed out to the tune of $hundreds of billion. Not to mention AIG (yet all we hear about are the piddling banks!)

Edited by fido on Wednesday 13th January 12:29

[QuantumTokoloshi]

Justayellowbadge said:

Dogs and cats living together.

But, Who are you going to call?

[anonymous-user]

fido said:

...Pretty sure they would be given the same priority as the US mortgage giants (Fannie/Freddie) which were bailed out to the tune of $hundreds of billion. Not to mention AIG (yet all we hear about are the piddling banks!)

For sure. Don't forget GM. Fannie, Freddie, AIG and GM got over $300bn between them; double what the big banks got.

[wc98]

v8250 said:

Know a number of financiers who've been liquidating non-core assets for some 12 months now...add China, oil pricing, the worsening EU debacle, continual bad debt, Euro immigration and the extreme associated financial stress, Russia's faltering economy...

How long will it be before the much needed financial re-adjustment begins? And more importantly, with inflation at near 0%, how will the BoE control excessive deflation when the downturn arrives?

Or will Brussels and London simply sweep this under the carpet again with QE?

to the first point, similar to senior oil execs selling up in aberdeen before the house prices go tits up.

various national banks trying to artificially manipulate these situations is a big part of the problem as seen in the past. let them resolve naturally for a change,short term pan, long term gain. might not suit the big players that make pots of cash from chaos, but a damn sight better for the majority in the long run.

maybe it is time to let the senior management teams from ladbrokes,william hill etc have a go at running the worlds banks. they seem to be quite good at running speculative markets while maintaining a profit .

[turbobloke]

Any re-adjustment in terms of UK interest rates still looks more likely to see rates lower for longer i.e. slow re-adjustment with small hikes but not yet.

[Welshbeef]

I think it's fair to say that the last 15-20 years have been some of the most challenging in every way vs previous eras and we're still going

In some ways it's interesting others sad that more cultures and religions are driven further apart.


Will historians and economists look back st this time as a golden era for change (good and bad)

[Wills2]

Little piece about the potential gathering storm on CH4 news tonight by Paul Mason, commodities on their arse, demand weak, danger that deflation could get baked in and capital flight from China/and the potential for a Chinese devaluation + the teetering euro economies are still that.

I don't think it would take much to send us over the edge again, I think the outlook for 2016 is pretty grim and at best stagnant for the UK, at least there seems to be more vigilance than last time.

[anonymous-user]

Wills2 said:

Little piece about the potential gathering storm on CH4 news tonight by Paul Mason, commodities on their arse, demand weak, danger that deflation could get baked in and capital flight from China/and the potential for a Chinese devaluation + the teetering euro economies are still that.

I don't think it would take much to send us over the edge again, I think the outlook for 2016 is pretty grim and at best stagnant for the UK, at least there seems to be more vigilance than last time.

Just playing devils advocate here... there is always a gathering storm, cheap commodities are good for manufacturers and consumers, capital flight from china... to the rest of us, it never takes much to send us over the edge... Greece almost did, the outlook is always grim if you want it to be... see zerohedge. IME once everyone expects the economy to do something, it does the opposite.

[Welshbeef]

Wills2 said:

Little piece about the potential gathering storm on CH4 news tonight by Paul Mason, commodities on their arse, demand weak, danger that deflation could get baked in and capital flight from China/and the potential for a Chinese devaluation + the teetering euro economies are still that.

I don't think it would take much to send us over the edge again, I think the outlook for 2016 is pretty grim and at best stagnant for the UK, at least there seems to be more vigilance than last time.

So hold on tight when the ride gets bumpy

Hopefully people have been building up savings (or debt clearing or mortgage overpayments) if not there is still some time yet get it done and give yourself a good chance.


I used to buy property what I'd consider fairly often adding buy to let's or moving family home. And yet I'd say for the last 3 years I've been wary to the point no further purchases had been made instead paying down the debts hard in that time.

[turbobloke]

fblm said:

IME once everyone expects the economy to do something, it does the opposite.

Just thinking along those lines. December 2016, regroup and review...

[Wills2]

fblm said:

Wills2 said:

Little piece about the potential gathering storm on CH4 news tonight by Paul Mason, commodities on their arse, demand weak, danger that deflation could get baked in and capital flight from China/and the potential for a Chinese devaluation + the teetering euro economies are still that.

I don't think it would take much to send us over the edge again, I think the outlook for 2016 is pretty grim and at best stagnant for the UK, at least there seems to be more vigilance than last time.

Just playing devils advocate here... there is always a gathering storm, cheap commodities are good for manufacturers and consumers, capital flight from china... to the rest of us, it never takes much to send us over the edge... Greece almost did, the outlook is always grim if you want it to be... see zerohedge. IME once everyone expects the economy to do something, it does the opposite.

You sound like my MD in a budget meeting when my divisional forecast doesn't reach his expectations....(just kidding with you BTW)

[carinaman]

jshell said:

But, should I spend £100k on a battered old Fezza 400i, it's only going one way in terms of prices???

You're right. It's now £120K but it does have new Michelins alround.

[Guybrush]

Yes, there's going to be a crash, so everybody sell!

[turbobloke]

Guybrush said:

Yes, there's going to be a crash, so everybody sell!

Haven't some traders and also finance journalists faced arrest and jail time for manipulating markets using crystal balling of one kind or another? Reporting ends and manipulation starts at some point.

[Digga]

fesuvious said:

Justayellowbadge said:

Dogs and cats living together.

Who ya gonna call?

GOATBUSTERS!