Brexit Poll 1/2/16

[Mario149]

Timmy40 said:

Mario149 said:

don4l said:

This morning, on R4, we had Anna Soubry going on about the demographic of the typical "leave" voter. Apparently we tend to be old, pale and male. She managed to leave out "uneducated" but it was implied.

So she is telling the truth and that somehow winds you up?

No but resorting to racially sterotyping people who vote against what you beleive is pretty desperate and IMO disgraceful politics.

What would your view been had the leave camp resorted to the same tactics?

They do on here: apparently university educated folk are all socialists who haven't got the faintest idea

Edited by Mario149 on Friday 3rd June 10:20

[Mario149]

Timmy40 said:

Mario149 said:

don4l said:

This morning, on R4, we had Anna Soubry going on about the demographic of the typical "leave" voter. Apparently we tend to be old, pale and male. She managed to leave out "uneducated" but it was implied.

So she is telling the truth and that somehow winds you up?

No but resorting to racially sterotyping people who vote against what you beleive is pretty desperate and IMO disgraceful politics.

What would your view been had the leave camp resorted to the same tactics?

They do on here: apparently young university educated folk are all socialists who haven't got the faintest idea

Edited by Mario149 on Friday 3rd June 10:21

[Mario149]

Found this today which I think sums up pretty well why I want Bremain:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/dear-...

[Mario149]

Also found this which looks at a side of the debate I've not heard so far:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/leaving...

[Mario149]

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

Found this today which I think sums up pretty well why I want Bremain:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/dear-...

Two ways of looking at everything.

It backs up why I'm for exit....showing that our exports to China and India are low compared to the EU tells me we're under achieving with those markets rather than the importance of the EU, bear in mind these two countries have a combined population of over 2.5BN and growing...significantly over a third of the world's population. The EU doesn't have trade agreements with either of these markets whereas Iceland and Switzerland do and so would we if free from horse-trading with 27 others.

I think it's admirable to want to do more trade, but to me it seems foolish to give up the good stuff we have. And look at what China did to Switzerland ref trade agreements. The Swiss got shafted. It's all about how much market you bring to the table, so if we approach China with 60M people, they're going to turn round with their 1.5B and give us a good shafting

[Mario149]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Mario149 said:

Also found this which looks at a side of the debate I've not heard so far:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/leaving...

OK so are you now saying you will re-consider your position? C'mon Mario, vote out!

Nice try It makes me want to vote in even more, just thought that article was interesting as the potential negative effects on the regions mentioned hadn't been brought up before

[Mario149]

Murph7355 said:

Mario149 said:

Also found this which looks at a side of the debate I've not heard so far:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/leaving...

I don't recall EU solidarity helping us much in 1982. I don't recall any of our allies being conclusively supportive (though Reagan chipped in).

Or for that matter in any recent angst with Gib or the previous troubles in NI.

Always good to know you can rely on your EU member friends though. The fact that Hague was regularly having discussions with Spain etc and having to ask "sir" in the EU to come and help speaks volumes the other way to me.

More ifs, buts and maybes, wild conjecture and guesswork.

I think you're reading that in a somewhat twisted way. The point was with Spain we had leverage to apply pressure via the EU. Don't confuse that with having zero recourse which is where we'd be outside of the EU. Unless you want to start putting holes in their ships.

[Mario149]

Esseesse said:

Mario149 said:

Also found this which looks at a side of the debate I've not heard so far:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/leaving...

Article said:

Whenever an Argentine president launches a new diplomatic drive against the self-determination of the islanders, as the last one did, they receive no hearing at all in European capitals. Remove the obligations to Britain in the European treaties, and a future troublesome president will sense the chance to be bolder.

In 1982 weren't the French delivering missiles to the Argentinians, despite us both being in the happy EEC club?

Yes, the actions of the French 35 years ago are definitely a reason to vote out. Definitely.

Edited by Mario149 on Monday 6th June 13:54

[Mario149]

blindswelledrat said:

Digga said:

do business in China, as Captainslow says, if you want a rude awakening to the true picture of China, then get into any prosperous city and check out the cars in and around the better hotels - no Western premium or sports brand is out of place. The elite have plenty of disposable income, this despite strong tariffs and duties on luxury cars and the fact the average office worker (let's forget the poor factory grafters who might work 28 days in a month) will be earning about a third of the equivalent UK salary.

In the mid to long term, wages in China are rising fast, it is developing quickly, and there is a gradual rise in consumerism. Western 'stuff', including British, is well valued.

Given (likely) projections that the combined Chinese and Indian economies will be around $89tn (at 2012 prices) in 30 year's time, as opposed to a mere $28.3tn for the EU (of which $4.3tn is the UK), then getting these trade deals right - whether or not independent of the EU (although they show little aptitude for getting the job done for us) - is the bigger game in town.
.

I don't disagree that
a)There are a number of wealthy people in CHina and India
b)They have awesome economic potential

I disagree violently that at this point in time we could offset loss of exports to the EU with an increase to China, as Captian Slow believes We export relatively little of interest to them in their current status.
The idea that we could export loads to them but we somehow choose not to because we are in Europe is nonsensical.

Quite. It took me 5 mins the other day to find some 2014 trade figures that showed that if we lost 20% of our exports to the EU we'd either have to increase exports to the States by 60%, or increase our exports to our next EIGHT biggest export markets by 100% (i.e. double it).

Edited by Mario149 on Monday 6th June 13:54

[Mario149]

Pooh said:

Exactly, and the idea that some 25 year old who has just come out of university automatically has a better idea of whether or not we should be in the EU compared to somebody twice their age with far more life experience is laughable.

Except that everyone seems to assume when we're talking about graduates it's only the recent ones. It's the ones who've been out of uni and earning their crust successfully for 10, 20, 30 years that are also voting stay.

[Mario149]

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

Quite. It took me 5 mins the other day to find some 2014 trade figures that showed that if we lost 20% of our exports to the EU we'd either have to increase exports to the states my 60%, or increase our exports to our next EIGHT biggest export markets by 100% (i.e. double it).

Well it's a good job the EU is the global growth market then isn't it, otherwise someone may realise putting all our eggs in one basket is stupid.

European Union is currently growing at about 2% which last time I check is roughly the rate at which we're growing. This is what makes no sense about the Leave economic arguments. We have it good right now, things are going well for us and contrary to popular Brexit belief we're not over-regulated and stifled. I get that people like a punt on potentially doing better, I like the idea too. But when something like 90% of economists say leaving will disadvantage us even in the long term, and when everyone who's been in charge of the the UK/UK economy since god knows how long says it's also a bad idea, and pretty much all (maybe actually all) the major financial institutions/groups around the world say leaving is bad, it takes a special kind of mindset by the Leave campaign to say "no, they're all wrong, we'll be significantly better off" when they can't even decide on what trading status they're aiming for post-Brexit.

[Mario149]

garyhun said:

Mario149 said:

It's the ones who've been out of uni and earning their crust successfully for 10, 20, 30 years that are also voting stay.

Not from my experience.

It's a good job that all those figures showing that uni grads earn more and are more successful say otherwise then.

[Mario149]

CaptainSlow said:

As we currently don't have a trade agreement with China we don't have to accept unfavourable terms to get one, we could just carry on without one.

Yeah good luck with that. Why would they agree? We would need them far more than they need us. Put better here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHFp3-qE_T8

[Mario149]

don4l said:

Mario149 said:

I think it's admirable to want to do more trade, but to me it seems foolish to give up the good stuff we have. And look at what China did to Switzerland ref trade agreements. The Swiss got shafted. It's all about how much market you bring to the table, so if we approach China with 60M people, they're going to turn round with their 1.5B and give us a good shafting

What makes you say that the Swiss got shafted?

I think that you just made that up, and you that we were too stupid to notice.

See link above

[Mario149]

Esseesse said:

Who said it was a reason to vote out? I just think being in is no guarantee that the EU will unanimously back British interests overseas.

Don't play coy, you implied it. You didn't post your response as a pro Bremain statement, or even a neutral one.

[Mario149]

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

Quite. It took me 5 mins the other day to find some 2014 trade figures that showed that if we lost 20% of our exports to the EU we'd either have to increase exports to the states my 60%, or increase our exports to our next EIGHT biggest export markets by 100% (i.e. double it).

Well it's a good job the EU is the global growth market then isn't it, otherwise someone may realise putting all our eggs in one basket is stupid.

European Union is currently growing at about 2% which last time I check is roughly the rate at which we're growing. This is what makes no sense about the Leave economic arguments. We have it good right now, things are going well for us and contrary to popular Brexit belief we're not over-regulated and stifled. I get that people like a punt on potentially doing better, I like the idea too. But when something like 90% of economists say leaving will disadvantage us even in the long term, and when everyone who's been in charge of the the UK/UK economy since god knows how long says it's also a bad idea, and pretty much all (maybe actually all) the major financial institutions/groups around the world say leaving is bad, it takes a special kind of mindset by the Leave campaign to say "no, they're all wrong, we'll be significantly better off" when they can't even decide on what trading status they're aiming for post-Brexit.

90%...is that another of those made up numbers? Is is less than that for the number that think we will be disadvantaged in the short term...and by that they mean lower growth not decline.

Bit of both actually, I had 9/10 in my head, turns out is was 88% for the part I remembered over 5 years, and 72% over 10-20 years:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...

ipsos mori said:

Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment.

88% thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market
72% thought it the most likely outcome would be a negative impact on UK real GDP over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market

[Mario149]

KrissKross said:

Mario149 said:

I think it's admirable to want to do more trade, but to me it seems foolish to give up the good stuff we have. And look at what China did to Switzerland ref trade agreements. The Swiss got shafted. It's all about how much market you bring to the table, so if we approach China with 60M people, they're going to turn round with their 1.5B and give us a good shafting

How much trade do you do with China Mario, you seem to know a lot about the subject?

Not so much. But I have the ability to consume and digest information that doesn't come straight from the Brexit campaign (or Bremain for that matter).

[Mario149]

garyhun said:

Mario149 said:

garyhun said:

Mario149 said:

It's the ones who've been out of uni and earning their crust successfully for 10, 20, 30 years that are also voting stay.

Not from my experience.

It's a good job that all those figures showing that uni grads earn more and are more successful say otherwise then.

Not really. I'll be voting the way I feel is right for his country rather than worrying if I'm going along with the 'educated' majority or any other group to be honest.

Shame, as it'll be the some or all of those other educated groups that actually know what they're talking about, rather than Brexit campaigners like this lady: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ero445tN598

garyhun said:

As I said earlier, it's a decision that will hopefully be based on intelligent consideration.

You do see how the bolded bit above is at odds with your tiny statistical sample not borne out by research below...

garyhun said:

I've seen enough graduates without intelligence to tell me that one does not equal the other but then again, it has no bearing on my voting intention at all so pretty inconsequential.

[Mario149]

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

CaptainSlow said:

Mario149 said:

Quite. It took me 5 mins the other day to find some 2014 trade figures that showed that if we lost 20% of our exports to the EU we'd either have to increase exports to the states my 60%, or increase our exports to our next EIGHT biggest export markets by 100% (i.e. double it).

Well it's a good job the EU is the global growth market then isn't it, otherwise someone may realise putting all our eggs in one basket is stupid.

European Union is currently growing at about 2% which last time I check is roughly the rate at which we're growing. This is what makes no sense about the Leave economic arguments. We have it good right now, things are going well for us and contrary to popular Brexit belief we're not over-regulated and stifled. I get that people like a punt on potentially doing better, I like the idea too. But when something like 90% of economists say leaving will disadvantage us even in the long term, and when everyone who's been in charge of the the UK/UK economy since god knows how long says it's also a bad idea, and pretty much all (maybe actually all) the major financial institutions/groups around the world say leaving is bad, it takes a special kind of mindset by the Leave campaign to say "no, they're all wrong, we'll be significantly better off" when they can't even decide on what trading status they're aiming for post-Brexit.

90%...is that another of those made up numbers? Is is less than that for the number that think we will be disadvantaged in the short term...and by that they mean lower growth not decline.

Bit of both actually, I had 9/10 in my head, turns out is was 88% for the part I remembered over 5 years, and 72% over 10-20 years:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/re...

ipsos mori said:

Ipsos MORI conducted an online survey of members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists on behalf of the Observer. The survey asked economists for their professional opinions on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU and the single market on a variety of economic indicators, including real GDP and unemployment.

88% thought it most likely that real GDP would be negatively impacted in the next 5 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market
72% thought it the most likely outcome would be a negative impact on UK real GDP over the next 10 to 20 years, if the UK left the EU and the single market

Always worth looking at the small print, I'm sure a response rate of 17% doesn't reflect negative sampling!!

"Technical note
639 respondents completed the online survey between 19th to 27th May 2016. The survey was undertaken online with invitations sent out to non-student members of the Royal Economic Society (RES) and the Society of Business Economists (SBE). Reported figures are based on unweighted data and so should only be taken as representative of those who responded. Overall 3,818 invitations were sent out, with a response rate of approximately 17%. For questions where respondents were asked to provide reasons for their answers, respondents were presented with a pre-defined prompt list"

Right, so you don't like the results so you're picking apart the polling itself, presumably not being a pollster yourself and knowing nothing about polling. Do you do that with polls where there are results you agree with as well? Thought not.

CaptainSlow said:

Also, when asked the question "Should the UK leave the EU?" economists tends be answer more closely to the general population.

"Should the UK leave the EU" - straw man in *this* particular discussion. The thread of what you and I are discussing is whether the economic argument stacks up. Which to clarify, a good sample of professional economists don't believe it does. But hey ho, let's ignore the people who do this for a job.

[Mario149]

KrissKross said:

Mario149 said:

KrissKross said:

Mario149 said:

I think it's admirable to want to do more trade, but to me it seems foolish to give up the good stuff we have. And look at what China did to Switzerland ref trade agreements. The Swiss got shafted. It's all about how much market you bring to the table, so if we approach China with 60M people, they're going to turn round with their 1.5B and give us a good shafting

How much trade do you do with China Mario, you seem to know a lot about the subject?

Not so much. But I have the ability to consume and digest information that doesn't come straight from the Brexit campaign (or Bremain for that matter).

Ok, well I trade in a small way with China, and also many other parts of the world over the last 20 years, including the EU (not Greece though, I wonder why )

I will vote to leave the EU (not Europe), why would you only listen to people who clearly have a vested interest in remaining, I fail to understand why telling the truth is met with so much hostility?

Again, like I said before, your experience may be different and so you hold a different view, but overall the vast majority of people with the knowledge about how trade agreements/economics works think leaving the EU is a daft thing to do in terms of our finances.

As for vested interests, they exist all over the place. I'm not naive to them, but take alook at the leave campaign: to think that someone like BJ or Farage aren't peddling the ridiculous to further their careers is nonsense as well