Brexit Poll 1/2/16

[Pooh]

Interesting report on trading with the EU.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-warnings-wrong-tr...

[Rapid rental]

Postal vote arrived today, after much deliberation, it boils down to mass immigration and the NHS being overun for me. I have voted to Leave.

[KrissKross]

Boosted LS1 said:

I think that if we leave, the EU will have to trade with us.

No they wont, please just forget the EU, if it disappeared in a puff of smoke you wouldn't even notice.

Trade is done by consumers or businesses needing something, to give you an example I was discussing this week:

I have a Samsung S7 phone, origination is Korea, probably manufactured in China. I wanted this particular item so I bought it.

It really is that simple, what we need are more engineers, inventors and entrepreneurs in the UK, creating "things" that global consumers want.

The EU and politicians play no part in any of this, they just leach after those who are successful at the above.

[TheGreatSoprendo]

REALIST123 said:

He's not entitled to lie to us, feed us blatant propaganda and not explain or justify his 'opinion'.

And, either way, I believe he'll live to regret that he has.

He does seem to have changed his tune somewhat!

https://www.facebook.com/100003662834496/videos/81...

[///ajd]

Boosted LS1 said:

I think that if we leave, the EU will have to trade with us. They can't go it alone. Aren't we Germany's biggest trading partner and the second biggest economy in the EU?

There's also the rest of the world to trade with. We'll be in a strong position so no need to accept a whole load of migrants if we don't want them. Let them stay in France and Germany who after all wanted them. I hope this pack of cards falls down and countries like Sweden and Norway can deport the migrants they don't want.

I think this is over played

In 2015 we were third biggest export market for germany but amongst lots of countries with very big markets. The rankings are quite flat.

We are actually only 7% of german exports, so the third place tag can be a little misleading.

EU is 45% for us.

The EU will call the shots, naive to think otherwise.

At only 7%, for example, if BMW are asked if they can stomach a 10% tariff in the UK they may well say ok, given the reciprocal benefits in other EU markets that their rivals like jaguar would be penalised in. Given current real prices a 3 series would still be cheaper than an XF anyway.

Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 28th May 19:48

[PRTVR]

///ajd said:

Boosted LS1 said:

I think that if we leave, the EU will have to trade with us. They can't go it alone. Aren't we Germany's biggest trading partner and the second biggest economy in the EU?

There's also the rest of the world to trade with. We'll be in a strong position so no need to accept a whole load of migrants if we don't want them. Let them stay in France and Germany who after all wanted them. I hope this pack of cards falls down and countries like Sweden and Norway can deport the migrants they don't want.

I think this is over played

In 2015 we were third biggest export market for germany but amongst lots of countries with very big markets. The rankings are quite flat.

We are actually only 7% of german exports, so the third place tag can be a little misleading.

EU is 45% for us.

The EU will call the shots, naive to think otherwise.

At only 7%, for example, if BMW are asked if they can stomach a 10% tariff in the UK they may well say ok, given the reciprocal benefits in other EU markets that their rivals like jaguar would be penalised in. Given current real prices a 3 series would still be cheaper than an XF anyway.

Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 28th May 19:48

So the EU is about protectionism, in a modern global economy where I bought a LED volt display from China in two weeks is this the way you think we should be heading?

[///ajd]

PRTVR said:

///ajd said:

Boosted LS1 said:

I think that if we leave, the EU will have to trade with us. They can't go it alone. Aren't we Germany's biggest trading partner and the second biggest economy in the EU?

There's also the rest of the world to trade with. We'll be in a strong position so no need to accept a whole load of migrants if we don't want them. Let them stay in France and Germany who after all wanted them. I hope this pack of cards falls down and countries like Sweden and Norway can deport the migrants they don't want.

I think this is over played

In 2015 we were third biggest export market for germany but amongst lots of countries with very big markets. The rankings are quite flat.

We are actually only 7% of german exports, so the third place tag can be a little misleading.

EU is 45% for us.

The EU will call the shots, naive to think otherwise.

At only 7%, for example, if BMW are asked if they can stomach a 10% tariff in the UK they may well say ok, given the reciprocal benefits in other EU markets that their rivals like jaguar would be penalised in. Given current real prices a 3 series would still be cheaper than an XF anyway.

Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 28th May 19:48

So the EU is about protectionism, in a modern global economy where I bought a LED volt display from China in two weeks is this the way you think we should be heading?

Yes! Finally Yes! The EU is still a bit protectionist! We might not like it but its a market for 45% of our exports and who is to say that protectionism doesn't help our industry to an extent - of course it does!

So, instead you want to unilaterally leave our biggest export market without reforming its protectionist ways first? That will go well. Perhaps you'd like to shoot ourselves in both feet while we're at it!?

[PRTVR]

///ajd said:

PRTVR said:

///ajd said:

Boosted LS1 said:

I think that if we leave, the EU will have to trade with us. They can't go it alone. Aren't we Germany's biggest trading partner and the second biggest economy in the EU?

There's also the rest of the world to trade with. We'll be in a strong position so no need to accept a whole load of migrants if we don't want them. Let them stay in France and Germany who after all wanted them. I hope this pack of cards falls down and countries like Sweden and Norway can deport the migrants they don't want.

I think this is over played

In 2015 we were third biggest export market for germany but amongst lots of countries with very big markets. The rankings are quite flat.

We are actually only 7% of german exports, so the third place tag can be a little misleading.

EU is 45% for us.

The EU will call the shots, naive to think otherwise.

At only 7%, for example, if BMW are asked if they can stomach a 10% tariff in the UK they may well say ok, given the reciprocal benefits in other EU markets that their rivals like jaguar would be penalised in. Given current real prices a 3 series would still be cheaper than an XF anyway.

Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 28th May 19:48

So the EU is about protectionism, in a modern global economy where I bought a LED volt display from China in two weeks is this the way you think we should be heading?

Yes! Finally Yes! The EU is still a bit protectionist! We might not like it but its a market for 45% of our exports and who is to say that protectionism doesn't help our industry to an extent - of course it does!

So, instead you want to unilaterally leave our biggest export market without reforming its protectionist ways first? That will go well. Perhaps you'd like to shoot ourselves in both feet while we're at it!?

Not quite, I want to leave because I believe the EU in its present form will not reform, it over the years has not shown any flexibility and I do not see that changing, on the point on cars what happens if we leave and do a free trade agreement with Japan, all of the EU car manufacturers will be at a disadvantage, I am sure they will be happy that the only market in Europe that is growing has a tariff attached to their vehicles.

[wc98]

///ajd said:

if you think we'd be worse off out of the EU - as I do - and it seems the PM does - them wants the harm in expressing that view?

now the pm appears to have changed his mind , will you be changing yours

[Norfolkit]

wc98 said:

now the pm appears to have changed his mind , will you be changing yours

What's Cameron changed his mind about?

[turbobloke]

Norfolkit said:

wc98 said:

now the pm appears to have changed his mind , will you be changing yours

What's Cameron changed his mind about?

Possibly this.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/834/cpsprodpb/CA6E/pr...

[///ajd]

turbobloke said:

Norfolkit said:

wc98 said:

now the pm appears to have changed his mind , will you be changing yours

What's Cameron changed his mind about?

Possibly this.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/834/cpsprodpb/CA6E/pr...

He hasn't changed his mind, he's just said we'll still do 'OK' outside the EU, but critically he still thinks we'd do better in the EU so his words are being spun to feed the gullible. Technically we'd still be 'thriving' if our GDP was 2-5% worse under brexit than in the EU, just not thriving as much. You can even argue 2-5% of GDP is not worth worrying about. Its only just over £4k each per year, LOL!

I'm surprised something so transparently spun has been lapped up, quite remarkable.

[turbobloke]

///ajd said:

turbobloke said:

Norfolkit said:

wc98 said:

now the pm appears to have changed his mind , will you be changing yours

What's Cameron changed his mind about?

Possibly this.

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/834/cpsprodpb/CA6E/pr...

He hasn't changed his mind, he's just said we'll still do 'OK' outside the EU, but critically he still thinks we'd do better in the EU so his words are being spun to feed the gullible. Technically we'd still be 'thriving' if our GDP was 2-5% worse under brexit than in the EU, just not thriving as much. You can even argue 2-5% of GDP is not worth worrying about. Its only just over £4k each per year, LOL!

I'm surprised something so transparently spun has been lapped up, quite remarkable.

At this point it's a tough call as to whether the Express is spinning more than the post above ^.

[paulrockliffe]

GDP is not a proxy for household income.

[///ajd]

paulrockliffe said:

GDP is not a proxy for household income.

GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.

If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!

[turbobloke]

///ajd said:

GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.

If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!

Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).

"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"

Which is fine, but...

"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."

Spot the third factor.

http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...

In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.

[anonymous-user]

Regarding migration if Brexit win
What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?

[turbobloke]

Jimboka said:

Regarding migration if Brexit win
What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?

Some thoughts on some of the above:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/18/eu-fact...

http://www.carterlaw.co.uk/if-britain-leaves-the-e...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/645667/Brex...

[RYH64E]

Jimboka said:

Regarding migration if Brexit win
What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?

And what difference will it make to the numbers of Syrian/Afghan/Somalian asylum seekers jumping out of the back of lorries?

[///ajd]

turbobloke said:

///ajd said:

GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.

If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!

Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).

"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"

Which is fine, but...

"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."

Spot the third factor.

http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...

In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.

There maybe other factors but I don't see any evidence for wages rising as GDP falls in your link or elsewhere. Employment is also a key factor for all.

It really isn't possible to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than a bad thing!