Brexit Poll 1/2/16
Poll: Brexit Poll 1/2/16
Total Members Polled: 1469
Discussion
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.
If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"
Which is fine, but...
"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."
Spot the third factor.
http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...
In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.
It really isn't possible to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than a bad thing!
I responded to the correlation point you were discussing, and pointed out that with GDP falling it's possible to have a rise in real wages with deflation.
If you only believe things you see on the internet (trouble ahead, if so) but couldn't find anything 'elsewhere' - did you look very hard? - and given that you need a link for basic economics then try this economics helpline at point 4.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/978/economics/de...
HTHH
In terms of Brexit and GDP, look at the various links posted in this thread for the numerous analyses already undertaken. There's a range in outcome, from positive to negative in terms of GDP depending on the assumptions behind the models. You focus on model outputs from pessimistic assumptions and expect others to take them at face value, that's spin for you!
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.
If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"
Which is fine, but...
"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."
Spot the third factor.
http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...
In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.
It really isn't possible to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than a bad thing!
I responded to the correlation point you were discussing, and pointed out that with GDP falling it's possible to have a rise in real wages with deflation.
If you only believe things you see on the internet (trouble ahead, if so) but couldn't find anything 'elsewhere' - did you look very hard? - and given that you need a link for basic economics then try this economics helpline at point 4.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/978/economics/de...
HTHH
In terms of Brexit and GDP, look at the various links posted in this thread for the numerous analyses already undertaken. There's a range in outcome, from positive to negative in terms of GDP depending on the assumptions behind the models. You focus on model outputs from pessimistic assumptions and expect others to take them at face value, that's spin for you!
only loony toons economists cite both drop and growth as possible outcomes, but the assumptions are not credible for growth - way too much undeliverable cake and eat it.
i'm not sure why you are trying to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than bad. if you are making a point about your actual wage going up as our currency plumets and deflation envelops the country, then yes, technically this could happen. Is that you pitch for brexit - "don't worry chaps cronic currency drops and deflation will make you feel richer! Just don't try and go on holiday....."
Rapid rental said:
Postal vote arrived today, after much deliberation, it boils down to mass immigration and the NHS being overun for me. I have voted to Leave.
There's an advert (or was, seems to have been deleted from news sources/YouTube) suggesting that leaving the EU will result in less funding for the NHS (said something about £36 billion a year), less research funding and huge jobs losses in the NHS.Not sure if anyone else saw it. Was one of those annoying 90s university style adverts where they complete the end speech with several actors saying a couple of words each at the end
e.g
Actor 1 "That's why"
Actor 2 "I will"
Actor 3 "be voting"
Actor 4 "in"
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.
If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"
Which is fine, but...
"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."
Spot the third factor.
http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...
In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.
It really isn't possible to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than a bad thing!
I responded to the correlation point you were discussing, and pointed out that with GDP falling it's possible to have a rise in real wages with deflation.
If you only believe things you see on the internet (trouble ahead, if so) but couldn't find anything 'elsewhere' - did you look very hard? - and given that you need a link for basic economics then try this economics helpline at point 4.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/978/economics/de...
HTHH
In terms of Brexit and GDP, look at the various links posted in this thread for the numerous analyses already undertaken. There's a range in outcome, from positive to negative in terms of GDP depending on the assumptions behind the models. You focus on model outputs from pessimistic assumptions and expect others to take them at face value, that's spin for you!
It's a credible source, your criterion is totally artificial and spinnier than a spinny thing.
It's also basic common sense that shouldn't require a 'source'.
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
GDP is closely correlated with tax income, which has a link to wages, though the growth in wages relative to GDP has slowed in the last 20 years or so due to increased inequality, noting it was however previously highly correlated, and remains positively influenced by GDP growth.
If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
Yes quite possibly, but not neccessarily, because cause and effect don't have to feature in any binary correlation. There may be such a link or there can be a third factor influencing each of two variables the same way. Analysis shows this to be the case here (USA).If GDP growth slows, it sure ain't good news for wages, only bad!
"tax receipts is (are) highly correlated to GDP growth"
Which is fine, but...
"economic structural influences and secular trends play the dominant role in both GDP and tax receipts growth."
Spot the third factor.
http://www.ibtimes.com/correlation-among-income-ta...
In a period of falling GDP and deflation it's possible for real wages to rise as for those in work, wages tend to be sticky. Unemployment is another matter.
It really isn't possible to spin a drop in GDP as anything other than a bad thing!
I responded to the correlation point you were discussing, and pointed out that with GDP falling it's possible to have a rise in real wages with deflation.
If you only believe things you see on the internet (trouble ahead, if so) but couldn't find anything 'elsewhere' - did you look very hard? - and given that you need a link for basic economics then try this economics helpline at point 4.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/978/economics/de...
HTHH
In terms of Brexit and GDP, look at the various links posted in this thread for the numerous analyses already undertaken. There's a range in outcome, from positive to negative in terms of GDP depending on the assumptions behind the models. You focus on model outputs from pessimistic assumptions and expect others to take them at face value, that's spin for you!
It's a credible source, your criterion is totally artificial and spinnier than a spinny thing.
It's also basic common sense that shouldn't require a 'source'.
we need them more than they need us. we are only 7% for germany and much less overall for the EU. proven time and again.
look up the ngaire video if you've not seen it - very compelling
our GDP is on going one way
indeed this seemed to have been accepted above as someone tried to prove wages could go up as GDP goes down. Hmm. pick your battles carefully chaps, lest you find yourselves defending the indefensible.
Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 29th May 13:56
turbobloke said:
The 'result' of a GDP projection depends on how it's modelled particularly in terms of assumptions.
What assumptions would you input?
There's no need to reply
no need What assumptions would you input?
There's no need to reply
ping!the assumptions would probably revolve around the promises and ideas promoted by the leave campaign
this has been done, and it doesn't end well for brexit!
you've sunk my battleship!
///ajd said:
common sense is that cocking around with the trade terms of our biggest export market - lets face it in a potentially vexatious way given the bolshy talk - is only going to end one way.
we need them more than they need us. we are only 7% for germany and much less overall for the EU. proven time and again.
look up the ngaire video if you've not seen it - very compelling
our GDP is on going one way
indeed this seemed to have been accepted above as someone tried to prove wages could go up as GDP goes down. Hmm. pick your battles carefully chaps, lest you find yourselves defending the indefensible.
That's conjecture rhetoric.we need them more than they need us. we are only 7% for germany and much less overall for the EU. proven time and again.
look up the ngaire video if you've not seen it - very compelling
our GDP is on going one way
indeed this seemed to have been accepted above as someone tried to prove wages could go up as GDP goes down. Hmm. pick your battles carefully chaps, lest you find yourselves defending the indefensible.
Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 29th May 13:56
Similarly you could say the UK influence in the EU will have been completely neutered if we vote remain, and we will have to accept everything we find worst about the EU. We will certainly be dragged down economically and almost certainly end up bailing out the Euro/banks/loans directly or indirectly again.
Edit to add. The only reason we have superficial economic growth is the mass immigration, it's like a pyramid scheme, it isn't real growth. Even DC admits our growth is from immigration.
Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Sunday 29th May 14:10
turbobloke said:
Jimboka said:
Regarding migration if Brexit win
What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?
Some thoughts on some of the above:What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/18/eu-fact...
http://www.carterlaw.co.uk/if-britain-leaves-the-e...
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/645667/Brex...
Jimboka said:
turbobloke said:
Jimboka said:
Regarding migration if Brexit win
What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?
Some thoughts on some of the above:What date will fellow EU citizens be stopped from moving to UK?
What happens to EU citizens already in UK?
What will happen to British who already live in mainland Europe?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/18/eu-fact...
http://www.carterlaw.co.uk/if-britain-leaves-the-e...
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/645667/Brex...
Is there a suggestion that the Leave side should hold the hands of adults and tell them what their best options are when the people who can best work that out are the people involved, given that personal situations and priorities differ so widely?
Sure enough telling everyone what to do is an EU control freak type of government-knows-best response (it doesn't know best) but it's not necessary. With instability in the EZ growing (Spain), like quite a few other people I got rid of property there and closed my bank account. There was no instruction booklet. The same principle applies to EU nationals living here.
wc98 said:
the last coupe of days i seem unable to read the posts from those pushing remain in anything other than a shrill tone , will it be a full on scream in the few days before the referendum i wonder
They can sing the EU national anthem in that same tone in about thirty years when they are a citizen of a pan European Superstate.Mind you, David Cameron has "guarantees",
Edited by Axionknight on Monday 30th May 07:05
wc98 said:
the last coupe of days i seem unable to read the posts from those pushing remain in anything other than a shrill tone , will it be a full on scream in the few days before the referendum i wonder
I foresee the prevention of a major terrorist attack thanks to the sharing of intel with our EU brothers and sisters. Shortly followed by an EU politician circle-jerk Axionknight said:
wc98 said:
the last coupe of days i seem unable to read the posts from those pushing remain in anything other than a shrill tone , will it be a full on scream in the few days before the referendum i wonder
They can sing the EU national anthem in that same tone in about thirty years when they are a citizen of a pan European Superstate.Mind you, David Cameron has "guarantees",
Edited by Axionknight on Monday 30th May 07:05
Either Cameron or Graff Lambsdorff are telling a lie, the question is which one? Regardless of which turns out to be the liar, the bottom line is that CMD has NOT secured a reformed EU, so why does he keep referring to a `reformed' Europe?
If someone repeatedly tells you lies, which you know full well to be lies, and thinks you too stupid to know that he is telling you lies, then the logical next step is to stop believing anything that person tells you.
Why also do those who wish to remain in the EU act and treat it as though it were a fair, honest, democratic, accountable organization when clearly it is anything but. They want us to remain working with the corrupt overbearing monster the EU has become and would seem to be traitors to the UK.
Pan Pan Pan said:
WRT Camerons `guarantees' just a few days after Dave returned with his bit of paper waving in the air `guaranteeing a `Great deal for the UK', Alexander Graff Lambsdorff Vice President of the European Parliament publicly stated : The agreement is in no way a document of the European Union, but a text of hybrid nature, which is unspecified and NOT legally binding.
Either Cameron or Graff Lambsdorff are telling a lie, the question is which one?
Answers on a postcard addressed to CMD Either Cameron or Graff Lambsdorff are telling a lie, the question is which one?
Even old Tusky chose his words carefully, saying only that the agreement couldn't be reversed. He didn't say as far as I recall that it was legally binding, and as such the omission is telling.
As we know, a donkey fart cannot be reversed. This irreversibility spin says nothing in effect. A donkey fart also dissipates into the wind, and can be superseded by the stench from a barrel of rotten apples, much the same as the hot air on Cameron's piece of paper.
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