Brexit Poll 1/2/16

Poll: Brexit Poll 1/2/16

Total Members Polled: 1469

Stay: 23%
Leave: 48%
Leaning towards Stay: 8%
Leaning towards Leave: 17%
Don't know yet: 4%
Author
Discussion

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
berlintaxi said:
Where are all these French, German and other EU states migrants hiding? The migrants all appear to be either Syrian,Afghani or African and leaving the EU will make no difference to them trying to come in, unless you are proposing completely sealing off the UK.
Huh? Why do you think they are hiding? The official stats probably underestimate the real figures but there was approx 230,000 (net 184,000) immigrants from the EU last year. Mainly from eastern and southern Europe. Nothing to do with M.E, few of them made it this far.
The vast majority of EU citizens who migrate to the UK come to fulfil jobs and return within a few years to their home country.
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?

Rapid rental

462 posts

223 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi. I think you are wrong on the lamb point, may i draw your attention to the below analysis, it states that only a third of the lamb consumed in the UK is now imported from New Zealand.

http://www.globalmeatnews.com/Analysis/Focus-on-Ne...

On the beef front, I dont think the EU even allows the import of South American beef as they cannot agree a trade deal.

Again you are entitled to your opinion but you are definitely wrong on the Commonwealth. Courtesy of Anthony Bailey from the Telegraph. Among its 53 members the Commonwealth contains at least seven of the fastest-growing global countries with ballooning new markets collectively exporting more than £1.5 trillion of goods and services each year.

Some of the biggest leaps in UK exports - of both goods and services in the last two years have been to Commonwealth countries – via a 33.5 per cent rise in exports to India , 31.2 per cent to South Africa, 30 per cent to Australia, 18.3 per cent to Canada. As the world’s sixth biggest trader, Britain exports £54 billion to the Commonwealth - less than a quarter of its European trade but growing at over 10% a year.

The full article is here. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/


don4l

10,058 posts

177 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
Import New Zealand lamb again? Was not aware we had ever stopped seeing as 79% of all lamb imported into the UK between 2013 and April 2015 came from New Zealand whilst the amount of lamb imported from Europe fell during the same period.

Referring to the empire and trading with the commonwealth is all a bit naive in my opinion
Why is it naive?

It is easy to trade with people who speak the same language and have similar laws.


berlintaxi

8,535 posts

174 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?
Possibly because the majority of migrants don't come from within the EU.

berlintaxi

8,535 posts

174 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Why is it naive?

It is easy to trade with people who speak the same language and have similar laws.
How many in the commonwealth speak the same language and have similar laws, whilst having markets of a scale that is economically worth trading with, a couple at best.

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?
Possibly because the majority of migrants don't come from within the EU.
Last stats say they do. 330,000 net with 184,000 from EU. That's a majority. And even that is an under estimate going by the N.I. stats.

Rapid rental

462 posts

223 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
The language of international commerce is English. Diplomacy is French.
berlintaxi said:
How many in the commonwealth speak the same language and have similar laws, whilst having markets of a scale that is economically worth trading with, a couple at best.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

199 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
Rapid rental said:
The language of international commerce is English. Diplomacy is French.
berlintaxi said:
How many in the commonwealth speak the same language and have similar laws, whilst having markets of a scale that is economically worth trading with, a couple at best.
I would happily take India, Canada and Australia in exchange for Italy, Spain and France any day thank you.

PRTVR

7,120 posts

222 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
don4l said:
Why is it naive?

It is easy to trade with people who speak the same language and have similar laws.
How many in the commonwealth speak the same language and have similar laws, whilst having markets of a scale that is economically worth trading with, a couple at best.
And how many in the EU if you broke them down in to their individual countries are worth trading with and speak the same language?

CAPP0

19,604 posts

204 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
I'm not 100% decided yet, so I read the BBC comparison pages over lunch: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

If you take a step back and look at these from a not-committed-either-way position, the Remain responses look increasingly desperate (to me, anyway).

Notwithstanding DC's (public) Remain stance, is there any particular political leaning on this, eg, left-wing generally Remain, right-wing generally leave, or vice versa?

don4l

10,058 posts

177 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?
Possibly because the majority of migrants don't come from within the EU.
Last stats say they do. 330,000 net with 184,000 from EU. That's a majority. And even that is an under estimate going by the N.I. stats.
What is truly shocking is that Cameron promised to get the figure down to "tens of thousands". He hasn't even done this with non-EU migration.

berlintaxi

8,535 posts

174 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?
Possibly because the majority of migrants don't come from within the EU.
Last stats say they do. 330,000 net with 184,000 from EU. That's a majority. And even that is an under estimate going by the N.I. stats.
Really?

In 2014, 13% of people migrating to the UK were British nationals, 42% were nationals of other EU countries, and 45% were nationals of non-EU countries, according to the office of national statistics.


turbobloke

104,025 posts

261 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
berlintaxi said:
s2art said:
How do you know? If that was true then why is the UK population predicted to grow to 70-80 million over the next 15-20 years?
Possibly because the majority of migrants don't come from within the EU.
Last stats say they do. 330,000 net with 184,000 from EU. That's a majority. And even that is an under estimate going by the N.I. stats.
Really?

In 2014, 13% of people migrating to the UK were British nationals, 42% were nationals of other EU countries, and 45% were nationals of non-EU countries, according to the office of national statistics.
It's very close.

Your 2014 stats are out of date, take the May 2016 update released 5 days ago for the year ending December 2015.

ONS said:
Net migration of EU citizens was estimated to be 184,000 (compared with 174,000 in YE December 2014; change not statistically significant). Non-EU net migration was 188,000 a similar level compared with the previous year (194,000).

The estimate of immigration for EU citizens was 270,000, compared with 264,000 in YE December 2014 (a non statistically significant change). Immigration of non-EU citizens saw a decrease from 287,000 to 277,000 (not statistically significant).
On the basis of NI information, the differences of 4,000 / 7,000 are within the error bars of the data, to put it kindly.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

199 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
CAPP0 said:
I'm not 100% decided yet, so I read the BBC comparison pages over lunch: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

If you take a step back and look at these from a not-committed-either-way position, the Remain responses look increasingly desperate (to me, anyway).

Notwithstanding DC's (public) Remain stance, is there any particular political leaning on this, eg, left-wing generally Remain, right-wing generally leave, or vice versa?
yes

I started out on the fence and have firmly jumped off. For the following reasons.

1 - Remain haven't made a single positive argument for remaining as far I can tell.

2 - I am sick and fed up of Osborne/Cameron we're going to scare ( bully ) you into voting remain. It's patronising and most of what they are spouting is so extreme it's clearly bks.

3 - I now genuinely don't think pulling out of the EU will make a hoots difference to trade. If the Germans and French with their extremely fragile economies decide to start a trade war with the UK it's pretty clear who the losers will be, we buy an awful lot more off them than they do off us.

number 46

1,019 posts

249 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
Bloomberg reporting that the GBP is dropping against the USD because of a new pole showing that the leave campaign are in the lead!!!! All we need is a few more ribs full of doctors and accountants and the leave vote will go up even further!!

Edited by number 46 on Tuesday 31st May 16:55

turbobloke

104,025 posts

261 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
number 46 said:
Bloomberg reporting that the GBP is dropping against the USD because of a new pole showing that the leave campaign are in the lead...
More from our luvverly Daily Mirror on this:

News item on the latest poll said:
The pound plunged in value today after a poll showed the Leave camp has taken the lead in the EU referendum .

Voters were backing Brexit by 52 to 48 points in both an internet and telephone poll conducted by ICM for the Guardian.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pound-falls-after-shock-poll-8089662

don4l

10,058 posts

177 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
don4l said:
Why is it naive?

It is easy to trade with people who speak the same language and have similar laws.
How many in the commonwealth speak the same language and have similar laws, whilst having markets of a scale that is economically worth trading with, a couple at best.
The numbers below are the population in millions.

Canada 30
India 1,300
Malaysia 31
Singapore 5.5
Sri Lanka 21
Barbados
Belize
Jamaica 2.7
Saint Lucia
St Kitts and Nevis
St Vincent and The Grenadines
Cyprus
Malta
Australia 20
New Zealand 4.6
Fiji


I'm not sure about the rest of the 55 countries, but I suspect that most of them speak English and have similar legal systems.

Trinidad and Tobago

berlintaxi

8,535 posts

174 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
And from that list how many have markets of a size which make it economically worth trading with the distances involved, only a couple.

don4l

10,058 posts

177 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
berlintaxi said:
And from that list how many have markets of a size which make it economically worth trading with the distances involved, only a couple.
Look at it again and stop being so silly.

India alone was twice the population of the EU and has a rapidly expanding economy. It has grown at an average annual rate of 7% for the past 20 years.

Why don't you check your facts before posting nonsense?

berlintaxi

8,535 posts

174 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Look at it again and stop being so silly.

India alone was twice the population of the EU and has a rapidly expanding economy. It has grown at an average annual rate of 7% for the past 20 years.

Why don't you check your facts before posting nonsense?
Resorting to personal insults just because someone disagrees with you, typical Brexiter!rolleyes

You reckon our agriculture industry could export their products to India, which has a large domestic agriculture industry, service industries, Oh no they are already out there, manufacturing, not very likely except for a few "luxury" items which are not going to be required in high numbers, and on top of that have you ever done business with India, a 1000 times more complicated than dealing with Europeans.

As for your list, I notice you could only find one country of note, great plan you've got.