So who wants to remain in the EU?

So who wants to remain in the EU?

Author
Discussion

Mario149

7,750 posts

177 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
Tannedbaldhead said:
5. Can you guarantee that should we leave Europe we bugger the place up and end up with an economic basket case on our doorstep because if there is that will impact on us very badly.
I think this is a point worth considering. We are one of the major contributors to the EU, and from the charts I've seen our money equals that given by the 15 bottom countries or so. If we leave and without us it does go tits up, that's gonna have a pretty major effect on us.

Mario149

7,750 posts

177 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
So, what has the EU ever done for us? I mean really done for us, not just the usual politicians trick of trying to take the credit for anything good that has happened since WWII.

For our net £33M per day we should have something to show for it. If this is all good value for money then a list of what we get should be easy. For that amount of money we should have something Google could drive it's camera cars around and make us an online virtual tour! It would be stupid to pay them all that money, plus £1.7Bn shakedowns at will, for nothing.
On the *big* assumption we did actually get a net gain of £33M a day by leaving, I think you have an inflated view of what that money would give us. It's the equivalent of 1.6% of our gov spending last year, hardly going to have major national repercussions.

Or look at it another way, if you had 1.6% increase in income, I suspect you wouldn't notice much difference in your life.

Axionknight

8,505 posts

134 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
Mario149 said:
I think this is a point worth considering. We are one of the major contributors to the EU, and from the charts I've seen our money equals that given by the 15 bottom countries or so. If we leave and without us it does go tits up, that's gonna have a pretty major effect on us.
Perhaps the EU should consider that very point before offering the UK a few derisory "reforms" that amount to absolutely squat.

superlightr

12,842 posts

262 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
Axionknight said:
Mario149 said:
I think this is a point worth considering. We are one of the major contributors to the EU, and from the charts I've seen our money equals that given by the 15 bottom countries or so. If we leave and without us it does go tits up, that's gonna have a pretty major effect on us.
Perhaps the EU should consider that very point before offering the UK a few derisory "reforms" that amount to absolutely squat.
perhaps the UK should have a 15x voting weighting?



Axionknight

8,505 posts

134 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
Far too undemocratic IMO.

Even for the EU.

FiF

43,960 posts

250 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
DavidJG said:
In Economic terms: I've said it before, I'll say it again: no-one truly knows what will happen to the UK if we vote to leave. What we can predict is that it's unlikely to be good. We'd effectively have to start from zero in terms of trade - almost all of our trade agreements and partnerships are through the EU. We won't be able to build new agreements overnight - it can take years of negotiation. Short term economic recession is almost certain, and the recovery time is unknown, but best case would be around 5 years of economic turmoil, with at least another 5 years to recover to where we are now. Politically, Scotland would have a strong case for a new independence vote, and would probably leave the UK to join up with the EU. This would weaken the UK further, and deepen a recession that was started by Brexit.

In short - if you don't mind a recession, if you don't mind watching unemployment soaring, if you think people who come here to work are a bad thing, then by all means vote to leave. But, if the UK leaves the EU then I and many others like me who employ people in areas that depend on the EU may just take ourselves, our money, and our jobs out of the UK.
A link to the below has been posted before, so one relevant bit from that said:-

"We have the presumption of continuity as laid down in international law so that we can carry on trading with third parties as normal, and we don't have to renegotiate trade deals, there are no tariffs - and there is no regulatory divergence any time in the next ten years at least. As far as business is concerned, nothing will change much and the pace of change will be glacial. Thus we can say with complete confidence that the scares promoted by europhiles are complete, total and absolute fiction. "

Like your post, complete fear based fiction, though if the exit is not conducted sensibly then chaos will ensue imo. But such stupidity would not be allowed to occur by the civil service tasked with dealing with a an exit scenario.

Edited by FiF on Tuesday 9th February 10:17

irocfan

40,153 posts

189 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
DavidJG said:
Hmmmm. Last time I looked, large elements of the NHS were staffed by migrants. In some areas, we'd struggle to run the NHS without them.

An article from the Daily Fail hardly counts as the most trustworthy place to find facts.

In terms of migration, we have to consider two areas - firstly, people who come to the UK from within the EU to work. Errr, is this such a bad thing? People who contribute to our economy, pay taxes, add something to our society? Perhaps they could even be responsible for elements of economic growth? Is this such a bad thing? Secondly, we have the non-EU refugee issue. This is a very real issue. I suspect that were the UK to leave the EU, these people would attempt to sail to the UK in the false belief that it's better here than in mainland Europe. However, we have to consider that most of these are human beings fleeing very real persecution. As part of the developed world maybe, just maybe, we should think about doing something to help them rather than simply complaining about all the bl**dy foreigners who want to come here and scrounge off the state? Of course, we need some form of screening programme as not all of the migrants from the middle east / north Africa are entirely what they seem to be but the percentage of 'bad' ones is quite small.

In Economic terms: I've said it before, I'll say it again: no-one truly knows what will happen to the UK if we vote to leave. What we can predict is that it's unlikely to be good. We'd effectively have to start from zero in terms of trade - almost all of our trade agreements and partnerships are through the EU. We won't be able to build new agreements overnight - it can take years of negotiation. Short term economic recession is almost certain, and the recovery time is unknown, but best case would be around 5 years of economic turmoil, with at least another 5 years to recover to where we are now. Politically, Scotland would have a strong case for a new independence vote, and would probably leave the UK to join up with the EU. This would weaken the UK further, and deepen a recession that was started by Brexit.

In short - if you don't mind a recession, if you don't mind watching unemployment soaring, if you think people who come here to work are a bad thing, then by all means vote to leave. But, if the UK leaves the EU then I and many others like me who employ people in areas that depend on the EU may just take ourselves, our money, and our jobs out of the UK.
so let's see: you say (correctly) that no-one truly knows what'll happen if we leave - and then go on to predict a doomsday scenario. scratchchin

FredClogs

14,041 posts

160 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
grumbledoak said:
So, what has the EU ever done for us? I mean really done for us, not just the usual politicians trick of trying to take the credit for anything good that has happened since WWII.

For our net £33M per day we should have something to show for it. If this is all good value for money then a list of what we get should be easy. For that amount of money we should have something Google could drive it's camera cars around and make us an online virtual tour! It would be stupid to pay them all that money, plus £1.7Bn shakedowns at will, for nothing.
You have to go to Spain, apparently we paid for some wonderful roads.
There are lots of EU funded projects in the UK, especially Wales...

http://gov.wales/funding/eu-funds/2014-2020/?lang=...

PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
irocfan said:
DavidJG said:
Hmmmm. Last time I looked, large elements of the NHS were staffed by migrants. In some areas, we'd struggle to run the NHS without them.

An article from the Daily Fail hardly counts as the most trustworthy place to find facts.

In terms of migration, we have to consider two areas - firstly, people who come to the UK from within the EU to work. Errr, is this such a bad thing? People who contribute to our economy, pay taxes, add something to our society? Perhaps they could even be responsible for elements of economic growth? Is this such a bad thing? Secondly, we have the non-EU refugee issue. This is a very real issue. I suspect that were the UK to leave the EU, these people would attempt to sail to the UK in the false belief that it's better here than in mainland Europe. However, we have to consider that most of these are human beings fleeing very real persecution. As part of the developed world maybe, just maybe, we should think about doing something to help them rather than simply complaining about all the bl**dy foreigners who want to come here and scrounge off the state? Of course, we need some form of screening programme as not all of the migrants from the middle east / north Africa are entirely what they seem to be but the percentage of 'bad' ones is quite small.

In Economic terms: I've said it before, I'll say it again: no-one truly knows what will happen to the UK if we vote to leave. What we can predict is that it's unlikely to be good. We'd effectively have to start from zero in terms of trade - almost all of our trade agreements and partnerships are through the EU. We won't be able to build new agreements overnight - it can take years of negotiation. Short term economic recession is almost certain, and the recovery time is unknown, but best case would be around 5 years of economic turmoil, with at least another 5 years to recover to where we are now. Politically, Scotland would have a strong case for a new independence vote, and would probably leave the UK to join up with the EU. This would weaken the UK further, and deepen a recession that was started by Brexit.

In short - if you don't mind a recession, if you don't mind watching unemployment soaring, if you think people who come here to work are a bad thing, then by all means vote to leave. But, if the UK leaves the EU then I and many others like me who employ people in areas that depend on the EU may just take ourselves, our money, and our jobs out of the UK.
so let's see: you say (correctly) that no-one truly knows what'll happen if we leave - and then go on to predict a doomsday scenario. scratchchin
Just what I was thinking, it boils down to be scared, be very very scared, we do not know of what but still be scared. hehe
If the EU is such a good thing for certain companies perhaps its time they started carrying a larger proportion of the cost scratchchin

DavidJG

3,507 posts

131 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
irocfan said:
so let's see: you say (correctly) that no-one truly knows what'll happen if we leave - and then go on to predict a doomsday scenario. scratchchin
It's my opinion, I don't know for certain, but I'd say the chances of economic problems are significantly higher if we leave than if we stay. The simple fact is that a large number of businesses in the UK are dependant on the EU for trade. Take that trade away, and it's clear that a number of those businesses will fail if they can't find alternative markets quickly enough. Most can't wait around a year or three while new agreements are negotiated.

KrissKross

2,182 posts

100 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
DavidJG said:
Hmmmm. Last time I looked, large elements of the NHS were staffed by migrants. In some areas, we'd struggle to run the NHS without them.
You walk into many doctors or NHS areas these days and its full of sick migrants being looked after by migrants.

PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
DavidJG said:
irocfan said:
so let's see: you say (correctly) that no-one truly knows what'll happen if we leave - and then go on to predict a doomsday scenario. scratchchin
It's my opinion, I don't know for certain, but I'd say the chances of economic problems are significantly higher if we leave than if we stay. The simple fact is that a large number of businesses in the UK are dependant on the EU for trade. Take that trade away, and it's clear that a number of those businesses will fail if they can't find alternative markets quickly enough. Most can't wait around a year or three while new agreements are negotiated.
Again fear of the unknown, The EU exports more to us than we export to them, trade will carry on, people will still be able to buy VW and audi cars and you will still sell into the EU, do you honestly believe trade will stop? do you think the countries that sell stuff to us will want to put their workers out of business?
Edit to add remember we were told of massive loss of jobs if we didn't join the Euro, look what happened there, nothing.


Edited by PRTVR on Tuesday 9th February 11:11

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
FredClogs said:
PRTVR said:
grumbledoak said:
So, what has the EU ever done for us? I mean really done for us, not just the usual politicians trick of trying to take the credit for anything good that has happened since WWII.

For our net £33M per day we should have something to show for it. If this is all good value for money then a list of what we get should be easy. For that amount of money we should have something Google could drive it's camera cars around and make us an online virtual tour! It would be stupid to pay them all that money, plus £1.7Bn shakedowns at will, for nothing.
You have to go to Spain, apparently we paid for some wonderful roads.
There are lots of EU funded projects in the UK, especially Wales...

http://gov.wales/funding/eu-funds/2014-2020/?lang=...
That's £822,000 of the 33m returned...

alfie2244

11,292 posts

187 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
DavidJG said:
It's my opinion, I don't know for certain, but I'd say the chances of economic problems are significantly higher if we leave than if we stay. The simple fact is that a large number of businesses in the UK are dependant on the EU for trade. Take that trade away, and it's clear that a number of those businesses will fail if they can't find alternative markets quickly enough. Most can't wait around a year or three while new agreements are negotiated.
Why will that trade be taken away? Do you know this for a fact or is it a guess?

eta you do seem to switch from not knowing for certain,to being clear, to opinion, to facts randomly through your post.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 9th February 11:09

wolves_wanderer

12,356 posts

236 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
alfie2244 said:
Why will that trade be taken away? Do you know this for a fact or is it a guess?

eta you do seem to switch from not knowing for certain,to being clear, to opinion, to facts randomly through your post.

Edited by alfie2244 on Tuesday 9th February 11:09
I think that regardless of the prevailing mood on here it is just as reasonable to have doubts as to blithely assume that everything will be fine in a Salmondesque kind of way. None of us know what will happen so the way that people expressing doubts are pulled up to have facts demanded when no such demand is made of those assuming no change is pretty daft.

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
FredClogs said:
There are lots of EU funded projects in the UK, especially Wales...

http://gov.wales/funding/eu-funds/2014-2020/?lang=...
So very nice of them to take our money, then give a small portion of it back, as long as we spend it how they tell us. We couldn't possibly do that ourselves,

plasticpig

12,932 posts

224 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
CrutyRammers said:
So very nice of them to take our money, then give a small portion of it back, as long as we spend it how they tell us. We couldn't possibly do that ourselves,
£3.5 billion of it is returned as CAP payments to farmers. Not sure what the out camp would want to do about that. IIRC the biggest recipient of CAP payments is the National Trust.


Mothersruin

8,573 posts

98 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
FredClogs said:
PRTVR said:
grumbledoak said:
So, what has the EU ever done for us? I mean really done for us, not just the usual politicians trick of trying to take the credit for anything good that has happened since WWII.

For our net £33M per day we should have something to show for it. If this is all good value for money then a list of what we get should be easy. For that amount of money we should have something Google could drive it's camera cars around and make us an online virtual tour! It would be stupid to pay them all that money, plus £1.7Bn shakedowns at will, for nothing.
You have to go to Spain, apparently we paid for some wonderful roads.
There are lots of EU funded projects in the UK, especially Wales...

http://gov.wales/funding/eu-funds/2014-2020/?lang=...
Socialist organisation gives socialist run region lots of money.

Not seen that before.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
plasticpig said:
£3.5 billion of it is returned as CAP payments to farmers. Not sure what the out camp would want to do about that. IIRC the biggest recipient of CAP payments is the National Trust.
Completely reform the way that we subsidise agriculture in a way which would be impossible while trying to pacify all of the competing interests in the EU?

CAP stinks and always has done, it's a really bad argument for staying in.

don4l

10,058 posts

175 months

Tuesday 9th February 2016
quotequote all
Tannedbaldhead said:
I have some serious reservations addressed before I decide:

1. In the past I have worked in the Irish Republic, my brother has worked in Germany and the Netherlands and my sister still works in Italy. If we were to leave the EU can you guarantee that we would still have easy hassle free access to EU labour markets.

2. I have lived in Northern Ireland, Scotland, Co Durham and Cumbria at different points in my life. I've chosen to do so as when I worked in London and lived in Berkshire I would have had to earn £200,000pa to afford the life style, my houses and cars I enjoyed when I lived in poorer more rural regions. These sort of areas (along with Cornwall and Wales) have done and are doing well from EU rural funding, development area funding and agricultural subsidies. If we left the EU can you guarantee the UK government would maintain similar levels of support for the regions and not do something daft like blowing on tax cuts which would benefit an already wealthy South East.

3. My dad is 79. Rather than a pension he derives income from investment by means of an income draw-down scheme. To date he has done well. If markets are shaken it could effect his income drastically. If the UK leaves the EU can you guarantee there will not be a negative impact on stocks and share prices that will reduce my Father's income.

4. My local Italian restaurant employs Italian waiters and waitresses. My family is Italian. I can speak Italian and these factors combine to make my meals more of an experience. Can you guarantee my restaurant will have access to Italian staff?

5. Can you guarantee that should we leave Europe we bugger the place up and end up with an economic basket case on our doorstep because if there is that will impact on us very badly.

If not I vote to stay.
Dear God... just when you thought that the bedwetting couldn't get any worse.

If you think back to before we joined the EEC, you wil realise a few things.

1. There was free movement of people between Ireland and the UK. This has been the case for hundreds of years and has bugger all to do with the EU.

2. The areas that you mention get far less from the EU than we £350m a week that we pay to the EU.

3. Just take a look at Europe. It is the only declining economic bloc on the planet. So, yes, you can rest assured that your father's investments will do better if we leave... unless of course your father has invested in Europe.

4. What a stupid question. There were Italian restaurants here in 1972... they had Italian staff. We can allow Italians in without Europe's permission.

5. What?