So who wants to remain in the EU?

[TEKNOPUG]

Timmy40 said:

Mandalore said:

Who would the replacment trade partners be if we left and IF Germany, France & Poland decided to block UK imports and services to europe??


Its pretty clear, they would throw their toys out of the pram, if the UK stopped paying intra to cover their inflated farm subsidies and unemployment benefits.

So you mean IF Europe decided to cut itself off from it's largest single export market at a time when the EU economy is already teetering on falling back into recession? Do you really think there is even the remotest chance they would do that?

Pfft! It's only £8bn a month. A drop in the ocean for EU countries. Their companies won't even notice it. The UK is probably just a rounding in their accounts. They'll easily be able to find other countries to buy an additional £8bn worth of goods and services every month. Judging by the strength of their economies, they must have countries queuing up to buy from them. Us on the other hand, well we'd have to find someone else to spend £8bn with every month....some tiny little market like India, China, Brazil, the USA....who will take our money?! We're doomed....

[Timmy40]

Zod said:

el stovey said:

I was surprised that generally older people want to leave the EU. I thought usually they are the group that vote for no change and stability.

They want things to be the way they were when they were brought up. Everything was perfect then.

Things haven't changed much, zee Germans still want to tell everyone else what to do but Russia is running rings around them, the French are craven to the Germans, the Italians and Spanish are a mess, and we're holding out against it all.

[Derek Smith]

Beati Dogu said:

Did your research cover the period before 1973? You know, the bit about trading with the world etc. Real insular stuff.

There's something I didn't know. I thought we were still allowed to trade with the rest of the world despite being in the EU.

[s2art]

Derek Smith said:

Beati Dogu said:

Did your research cover the period before 1973? You know, the bit about trading with the world etc. Real insular stuff.

There's something I didn't know. I thought we were still allowed to trade with the rest of the world despite being in the EU.

Well, yes, but why dont we have a free trade agreement with NAFTA, or India, or etc etc.

[anonymous-user]

Derek Smith said:

There's something I didn't know. I thought we were still allowed to trade with the rest of the world despite being in the EU.

AFAIK you are only allowed to trade with non-EU countries on the terms agreed by the EU. You can't go and agree free trade between the UK and USA, you have to impose EU tariffs. So yes you can trade with the ROW but not on your own terms.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 3rd February 15:37

[crankedup]

Out and sooner the better. Big World to trade with, on our terms. A UK without the constant meddling from the EU, that will do me.

[TEKNOPUG]

I always think it's worth imagining that currently the UK is out of the EU. Then look at how the EU has been run over the last 5 years, how it's member countries have faired, how it's citizens have faired, how it has managed it's finances and how it has dealt with crises and then ask yourself whether it's something you'd like to be a part of.

Rather than BREXIT, imagine if it was a BRENTRY referendum. Most of the arguments for either case seem to centre around fear of the unknown - what will happen if we leave/join and always veer towards negativity. Human nature I guess. However, if you can't make a reasoned argument for joining the EU, how can you make a reasoned argument for remaining? The key issues should be the same.

[wolves_wanderer]

Timmy40 said:

So you mean IF Europe decided to cut itself off from it's largest single export market at a time when the EU economy is already teetering on falling back into recession? Do you really think there is even the remotest chance they would do that?

What, take some pain to make an example of the first country to leave? Yes, I think they probably would if they thought it would encourage everyone else to stay.

I'm still on the fence personally but a lot of the arguments to leave remind me enough of Alex Salmond before the Scottish referendum - "we can keep all the good stuff, get rid of the things we don't like and everything will be better now we aren't ruled by foreigners" to make me pause.

[Derek Smith]

fblm said:

AFAIK you are only allowed to trade with non-EU countries on the terms agreed by the EU. You can't go and agree free trade between the UK and USA, you have to impose EU tariffs.

I write about trade regulations. I can say that most of EU regs would apply whether we were inside the EU or outside if we wanted to trade with them. Most non-EU countries have their own regulations. If anything, companies get a benefit from overarching regs. Deal with one country and you can deal with them all. The only difference is that there is a chance of influencing any legislation from within.

I've just finished a couple of articles which include the promises of a national regulatory body for data management by 2019 at the latest. Outside the EU we would be told what is required.

At the moment the EU has a bit of pull. Safe harbour was destroyed and the Americans will modify their habits to ensure that they can still exchange data. We wouldn't have the bottle to challenge them if we were on our own.

The EU will look after its own. The USA and India (as someone mentioned) will do so.

I can see the argument that we should do what's best for us rather than have the EU dictate, but if we leave, we will still be dictated to but with considerably less chance of influencing decisions.

Although not my speciality, I read about pressure from the USA with regards build regulations for motor cars. The EU was able to push its interests. I know we don't build cars other than for foreign companies in the main, and the likelihood is that we'd build a site fewer if we left the EU, I would assume that the same goes for other products.

My problem is that I can only trust my understanding if I have researched the matter thoroughly. There are not enough hours in the day to cover 10% of the subject of an EU exit. However, in that little bit that I do know, and write about, I see much that is posted by some who suggest an exit will save us £billions is wrong. Not a miscalculation but wrong.

It is easy, but perhaps wrong, to extrapolate that to every pro exit poster. However, there is a certain distrust when vast figures are quoted as to benefits with no evidence.

As I said, I can be convinced either way if the evidence is produced in a manner that I could verify, but let's face it, that ain't going to happen.

My kids think being in the EU will benefit them and their children. At the moment, that's good enough for me. But they, and I, know nothing is certain.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Efbe said:

fatjon said:

You seem to be confusing Lefties, Guardian readers and Independent readers with well educated and clever people.

I would have put the majority of the posters on this site as politically centre, mid to high income. Most are skilled/professional articulate people but there seems to be a massive majority in favour of out or leaning that way. I suspect these polls predicting an in vote will turn out to be nearly as accurate as the last GE polls. It really does not seem to be party political or educational/income based at all.

hahahaha, serious, politically centre?


PH is about as right wing a forum of this size there is.

Not really, I would say FJ`s view was about on the nail, perhaps it just `seems' like it to any lefty`s that come here.

[TEKNOPUG]

wolves_wanderer said:

Timmy40 said:

So you mean IF Europe decided to cut itself off from it's largest single export market at a time when the EU economy is already teetering on falling back into recession? Do you really think there is even the remotest chance they would do that?

What, take some pain to make an example of the first country to leave? Yes, I think they probably would if they thought it would encourage everyone else to stay.

They sound exactly like the sort of people that we should wish to have ever greater political union. I'm all for people punishing us and making examples of us if we don't behave how they want. What a great club.

[rolex]

My main concern is what's going to happen to the value of my equity ISA's if we pull out!

[wolves_wanderer]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Efbe said:

fatjon said:

You seem to be confusing Lefties, Guardian readers and Independent readers with well educated and clever people.

I would have put the majority of the posters on this site as politically centre, mid to high income. Most are skilled/professional articulate people but there seems to be a massive majority in favour of out or leaning that way. I suspect these polls predicting an in vote will turn out to be nearly as accurate as the last GE polls. It really does not seem to be party political or educational/income based at all.

hahahaha, serious, politically centre?


PH is about as right wing a forum of this size there is.

Not really, I would say FJ`s view was about on the nail, perhaps it just `seems' like it to any lefty`s that come here.

If you start miles to the right then even normal people look like lefties...

[Funkycoldribena]

Not one person I know wants in.I view it like one of these management companies that look after your block of flats for a fortune and slap a lick of paint up every 10 years and cut the lawns every 6 months.How many hospitals/police/homes for homeless etc could we have for 55 mil a day let alone the 1.7 bil. we paid last year?

[anonymous-user]

wolves_wanderer said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Efbe said:

fatjon said:

You seem to be confusing Lefties, Guardian readers and Independent readers with well educated and clever people.

I would have put the majority of the posters on this site as politically centre, mid to high income. Most are skilled/professional articulate people but there seems to be a massive majority in favour of out or leaning that way. I suspect these polls predicting an in vote will turn out to be nearly as accurate as the last GE polls. It really does not seem to be party political or educational/income based at all.

hahahaha, serious, politically centre?


PH is about as right wing a forum of this size there is.

Not really, I would say FJ`s view was about on the nail, perhaps it just `seems' like it to any lefty`s that come here.

If you start miles to the right then even normal people look like lefties...

There is no way PH represents anything approaching "political centre"

Any poll or politics thread will tell you that.

[ATG]

fblm said:

Derek Smith said:

There's something I didn't know. I thought we were still allowed to trade with the rest of the world despite being in the EU.

AFAIK you are only allowed to trade with non-EU countries on the terms agreed by the EU. You can't go and agree free trade between the UK and USA, you have to impose EU tariffs. So yes you can trade with the ROW but not on your own terms.

Edited by fblm on Wednesday 3rd February 15:37

When one considers how much more successful Germany is than us at exporting goods across the world, it is pretty obvious that our trade problems have nothing to do with our EU membership.

[ATG]

el stovey said:

There is no way PH represents anything approaching "political centre"

Any poll or politics thread will tell you that.

Quite. One nation conservatives get branded as Marxists round here.

[TEKNOPUG]

ATG said:

When one considers how much more successful Germany is than us at exporting goods across the world, it is pretty obvious that our trade problems have nothing to do with our EU membership.

You mean an economy that is industry driven, that requires a low-wage workforce and access to a market that has come into a lot of easy money/credit and it looking to buy consumer goods? It would be even better if it was in a single currency zone and if it's political leaders could heavily influence the finances and budgets of it's trading partners....

Some kind of economic & political union of countries, whereby the rich would subsidise the poor, so that the poor can buy German goods? And even if they can no longer afford to do so, we can just keep lending them more money? If it could also be arranged so that there is a constant flow of very cheap labour to keep costs down, that would also be of great help.

But that's just pure fantasy, the very idea that Germany could somehow massively benefit from such an arrangement when we all know they are an industrial exporting miracle without the need for any need of assistance...

[del mar]

The problem with the whole debate is that the general public will never get to know all the relevant facts - in the same way as Foreign Aid "Assists in people buying British", there is an economic value to Foreign Aid but it is rarely discussed. We will be asked to vote with only half the information. It would be impossible to make a decent decision.

If DC could negotiate back to the original principals of free trade we would all vote to stay in. The no vote is made up of "emotive popular issues", which may or may not benefit us in the long term.

I have a volume of business in Europe, but would vote to leave, then again my views are probably out of date and not reflect of the modern world.

[Guybrush]

fido said:

el stovey said:

I was surprised that generally older people want to leave the EU. I thought usually they are the group that vote for no change and stability.

Well the pluses for older people are they: have wisdom/experience, know what bullsh8t smells like, know what life was like before the EU. Not saying they are always right, far from it, but they have had more years to understand how the world works. And doesn't. Like the EU.

Exactly. As with age comes experience and usually wisdom at the same time. That's why, generally, people as they get older are more likely to have right of centre politics than when they were younger. Therefore, they are more likely to see through the BS that is the pro-EU campaign. All hot air and fear / uncertainty tactics.