So who wants to remain in the EU?

[TEKNOPUG]

walm said:

TEKNOPUG said:

It just seems to be a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric or propositions about the future that bare no reflection to the evidence of the present.

The problem is that no one knows what agreements might be put in place to allow free trade and free movement of labour (like the Swiss) post-Brexit, so it is all speculation.
You are asking the impossible.

What is a fact, is that if you are thinking about building a new factory that will make stuff to export to the EU and have a choice between the UK and Spain, you might opt for Spain simply because you can't run the risk of punitive import tariffs making your products far too expensive to sell vs. EU made products.

I'm referring to unsubstantiated rhetoric or propositions about the future that bare no reflection to the evidence of the present, with regards to staying in the EU...I'd like some evidence as to why being in the EU is beneficial, where it is going and how those benefits can only be enjoyed by remaining in the EU.

Your example of building a factory only relates to exporting your goods to the EU. If your major markets are outside the EU, which the majority of the World is, the UK might be a more attractive location.

Edited by TEKNOPUG on Wednesday 10th February 14:13

[TEKNOPUG]

Mario149 said:

1.6% of our public spending. Even if we did get all of that back and didn't lose anything, you're not going to notice any huge change for the better same as you wouldn't if someone gave you a 1.6% pay rise.

If I give you my Paypal details, can you send me 1.6% of your annual salary please?

[fido]

plasticpig said:

In case it escaped your notice we live a parliamentary democracy. Parliament undoubtedly did vote for all those things as they voted on the bills in parliament that ratified the Maastricht and Lisbon treaties.

More the reason to have a referendum.

You cite the Lisbon treaty - from Wiki :- "this was abandoned after being rejected by 54.67% of French voters on 29 May 2005[7][8] and then by 61.54% of Dutch voters on 1 June 2005".

[plasticpig]

s2art said:

FFS, there will be no punitive import tariffs! The WTO rules see to that. Assuming no FTA and therefore trading under WTO the average tariff would be approx 1-2% other than vehicles. That is less than currency fluctuations. Because vehicle tariffs are higher (10% max) Germany will bust a gut to ensure there IS an FTA.

If there will be no punitive import tariffs why does Norway have a tariff of 277% for importing Cheddar cheese?

[s2art]

plasticpig said:

s2art said:

FFS, there will be no punitive import tariffs! The WTO rules see to that. Assuming no FTA and therefore trading under WTO the average tariff would be approx 1-2% other than vehicles. That is less than currency fluctuations. Because vehicle tariffs are higher (10% max) Germany will bust a gut to ensure there IS an FTA.

If there will be no punitive import tariffs why does Norway have a tariff of 277% for importing Cheddar cheese?

I was referring to manufactured goods. The CAP does complicate things, fortunately for us outside the EU we will be able to buy food at world prices, saving the average family several hundred pounds a year.

Also see https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/ag_in...

Edited by s2art on Wednesday 10th February 14:26

[FiF]

s2art said:

walm said:

TEKNOPUG said:

It just seems to be a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric or propositions about the future that bare no reflection to the evidence of the present.

The problem is that no one knows what agreements might be put in place to allow free trade and free movement of labour (like the Swiss) post-Brexit, so it is all speculation.
You are asking the impossible.

What is a fact, is that if you are thinking about building a new factory that will make stuff to export to the EU and have a choice between the UK and Spain, you might opt for Spain simply because you can't run the risk of punitive import tariffs making your products far too expensive to sell vs. EU made products.

FFS, there will be no punitive import tariffs! The WTO rules see to that. Assuming no FTA and therefore trading under WTO the average tariff would be approx 1-2% other than vehicles. That is less than currency fluctuations. Because vehicle tariffs are higher (10% max) Germany will bust a gut to ensure there IS an FTA.

Tariffs are old hat, and worrying about them is counter productive. Indeed the people who worry about the removal of tariffs is all that is needed to set up a free trade area are behind the times.

Where it's at today is the removal of technical barriers to trade. Take a look at the Global Alliance for Trade and implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. Then again harmonisation of standards is also working towards the same ends.

All the above takes place at global level in supranational organisations and I'm not going to give up saying it, even if it gets tiresome to have to keep up the repetition. The EU denies member states to have any say in these processes, well 1/28th of a say, in theory, but all animals nations are equal and all that. No say, no ability to form alliances, no ability to lobby. Then it just has to take these regulations en bloc, fanny around converting them into EU legislation. It's just like an expensive, irrelevant and inefficient layer of middle management.

It's time to cut the apron strings
Note this was written when it was expected that during his negotiation Cameron would get a two speed EU with treaty change. How wrong can you be, but the rest of it is still valid.

An old blog from Pete North but it's about cars so PH appropriate, though some won't be interested in that, being about cars that is. Loads of other articles in similar vein, this one chosen for the car element.


The media and politicians aren't going to talk about this so it's up to us and the blogosphere.

[Scuffers]

plasticpig said:

If there will be no punitive import tariffs why does Norway have a tariff of 277% for importing Cheddar cheese?

wow, that's a real biggie!

Now quantify this in £/pa

and I am sure there's probably some history here.

[plasticpig]

fido said:

More the reason to have a referendum.

You cite the Lisbon treaty - from Wiki :- "this was abandoned after being rejected by 54.67% of French voters on 29 May 2005[7][8] and then by 61.54% of Dutch voters on 1 June 2005".

The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe was abandoned. Lisbon was what occurred afterwards when they decided to just reform the current treaties rather than tearing up everything and imposing a complete new agreement which is what the Constitution for Europe was meant to do.

[walm]

TEKNOPUG said:

I'd like some evidence as to why being in the EU is beneficial, where it is going and how those benefits can only be enjoyed by remaining in the EU.

Well I for one enjoy employing skilled workers for half the usual price for Walm Towers home improvements.
In my team of 9 at work, 3 are from the EU not the UK. I don't want to lose them.
Although I could do without the chocolates the Polish guy insists on bringing back from home when he visits... urgh.

In fairness, like Switzerland I am sure it COULD be possible to maintain many of the benefits from outside but it is the UNCERTAINTY that I have a problem with.
That risk just isn't worth it given the benefit of exiting appears minimal.

[fido]

Scuffers said:

plasticpig said:

If there will be no punitive import tariffs why does Norway have a tariff of 277% for importing Cheddar cheese?

wow, that's a real biggie!

Now quantify this in £/pa

and I am sure there's probably some history here.

It's selfish but all countries (outside the EU anyway) do it. Presumably there would still be a couple of steel plants open in the UK if there was a similar tariff. As you say, the actual amount of affected trade is very small - and these things can always be used a bargaining chips. We could target German luxury cars, for example, if the EU started upping the game.

[s2art]

walm said:

TEKNOPUG said:

I'd like some evidence as to why being in the EU is beneficial, where it is going and how those benefits can only be enjoyed by remaining in the EU.

Well I for one enjoy employing skilled workers for half the usual price for Walm Towers home improvements.
In my team of 9 at work, 3 are from the EU not the UK. I don't want to lose them.
Although I could do without the chocolates the Polish guy insists on bringing back from home when he visits... urgh.

In fairness, like Switzerland I am sure it COULD be possible to maintain many of the benefits from outside but it is the UNCERTAINTY that I have a problem with.
That risk just isn't worth it given the benefit of exiting appears minimal.

Why minimal? Just paying world prices for food would save several hundred pounds a year. Not to mention a saving of approx 10+ billion on contributions. And you will still have a supply of Polish workers if there is a shortage of skilled workers in the UK, not to mention the ones that are already here.

[TEKNOPUG]

walm said:

TEKNOPUG said:

I'd like some evidence as to why being in the EU is beneficial, where it is going and how those benefits can only be enjoyed by remaining in the EU.

Well I for one enjoy employing skilled workers for half the usual price for Walm Towers home improvements.
In my team of 9 at work, 3 are from the EU not the UK. I don't want to lose them.
Although I could do without the chocolates the Polish guy insists on bringing back from home when he visits... urgh.

In fairness, like Switzerland I am sure it COULD be possible to maintain many of the benefits from outside but it is the UNCERTAINTY that I have a problem with.
That risk just isn't worth it given the benefit of exiting appears minimal.

And why can't you continue to employ these people post BREXIT? What risk? What does the EU provide, that only the EU could provide?

[MarshPhantom]

I'll vote to stay if only because we have no idea what may happen if we leave. There are no facts, it's all guesswork and lies, and I think we need more than that to make such a big decision.

[walm]

TEKNOPUG said:

And why can't you continue to employ these people post BREXIT? What risk? What does the EU provide, that only the EU could provide?

OK perhaps I have misunderstood the whole point of Brexit.
All the kippers seem to insist that we should be out because all these nasty Eurotrash have come over and either stolen our jobs or taken our benefits.

So if we Brexit then these people (EU migrants) will no longer be able to work in the UK, thus saving British Jobs for British Workers.

That means I won't be able to employ cheaper, better qualified and more hardworking Poles, doesn't it?

Unless of course there is still free movement of labour (like Switzerland) in which case there is no point Brexiting in the first place???

(I agree it would be nice not to throw money at Strasbourg but ignoring that bit for a moment and concentrating on the employment/immigration side...)

[Scuffers]

MarshPhantom said:

I'll vote to stay if only because we have no idea what may happen if we leave. There are no facts, it's all guesswork and lies, and I think we need more than that to make such a big decision.

that's a reallt lame argument.

plenty of info out there, you just need to look for it.

ignore the politicians, and look at the rest of the world.

we leave, the sky is not going to suddenly fall in.

the biggest risk is what our own domestic politicians do once we are freed from the EU, I can see some of them desperately trying to mirror the very shame policies and st we pulled out to avoid.

[MarshPhantom]

Scuffers said:

MarshPhantom said:

I'll vote to stay if only because we have no idea what may happen if we leave. There are no facts, it's all guesswork and lies, and I think we need more than that to make such a big decision.

that's a reallt lame argument.

plenty of info out there, you just need to look for it.

ignore the politicians, and look at the rest of the world.

we leave, the sky is not going to suddenly fall in.

the biggest risk is what our own domestic politicians do once we are freed from the EU, I can see some of them desperately trying to mirror the very shame policies and st we pulled out to avoid.

There may be "info" out there. Who wrote it and what is their agenda?

You have no way of knowing what the the future may hold after brexit.

[Zod]

MarshPhantom said:

Scuffers said:

MarshPhantom said:

I'll vote to stay if only because we have no idea what may happen if we leave. There are no facts, it's all guesswork and lies, and I think we need more than that to make such a big decision.

that's a reallt lame argument.

plenty of info out there, you just need to look for it.

ignore the politicians, and look at the rest of the world.

we leave, the sky is not going to suddenly fall in.

the biggest risk is what our own domestic politicians do once we are freed from the EU, I can see some of them desperately trying to mirror the very shame policies and st we pulled out to avoid.

There may be "info" out there. Who wrote it and what is their agenda?

You have no way of knowing what the the future may hold after brexit.

Scuffers doesn't know what he's having for tea.

[Scuffers]

MarshPhantom said:

There may be "info" out there. Who wrote it and what is their agenda?

You have no way of knowing what the the future may hold after brexit.

really?

is it that hard to figure out who wrote anything and figure out what (if any) agenda they have?

Here, I'll gibe you some starters:

Anything published by:

BBC, LSE, CBI, Lib/Lab/Con, Any university, Any company who is involved with government contracts (ie Serso/Capita/etc), Greens, JP Morgan and all their chums, any environmental group, etc. will all be lying to you.

the gravy train is MASSIVE, and they all have their snouts in the trough.

as for a single reason to leave?

Forget the financial's, immigration, etc.

the ONE reason alone is the supremacy of our own democracy.

we go to other countries and lecture them on the benefits of democracy, whilst giving ours away to the EUSSR.

I read animal farm as a kid, we were talked though it at school, and what I see now is EXACTLY that.

we need to stop sleep-walking into a totalitarian EU dictatorship.

[superlightr]

MarshPhantom said:

There may be "info" out there. Who wrote it and what is their agenda?

You have no way of knowing what the the future may hold after brexit.

Ok look at it from the other way around. Whats the agenda of the EU commission?

Ever closer union
An EU army and Navy
To control and make rules about every aspect of life which has gone beyond trade agreements.
Unable to audit or balance its own books - corrupt and corruption with no reform. Look how their have treated whistle blowers in the EU commission on accounts.

Free movement of people - (even migrants from out side of the EU it appears to make them EU citizens)
Compliance that the UK cannot stop the movement of people from the EU
Compliance that the UK must give the same out of work benefits to all EU members people.
Telling the UK to what to do - ie sovereignty.


Its always scary trying to change the satus quo but what if, what that... etc but come on the control and EU project has gone too far, is too corrupt, the Euro is failing and being kicked down the line on PIIGS debts. EU has no real boarder control.
Why would the UK want ever closer union with the EU - whats the benefit to us for our membership fee?

Edited by superlightr on Wednesday 10th February 15:30

[s2art]

MarshPhantom said:

Scuffers said:

MarshPhantom said:

I'll vote to stay if only because we have no idea what may happen if we leave. There are no facts, it's all guesswork and lies, and I think we need more than that to make such a big decision.

that's a reallt lame argument.

plenty of info out there, you just need to look for it.

ignore the politicians, and look at the rest of the world.

we leave, the sky is not going to suddenly fall in.

the biggest risk is what our own domestic politicians do once we are freed from the EU, I can see some of them desperately trying to mirror the very shame policies and st we pulled out to avoid.

There may be "info" out there. Who wrote it and what is their agenda?

You have no way of knowing what the the future may hold after brexit.

It will be similar to any other country not in the EU. Canada? Australia, the USA? How we do will depend on who we vote for, what policies are enacted, how good our infrastructure is etc etc.

Note we have no idea what happens if we stay. The EU is on a wild ride to political union, and we may have to pay for a lot of that. Out we control our own destiny.


Edited to add. John Redwood has written several articles on the subject, well worth reading. Go to http://johnredwoodsdiary.com

And read and think about the first half dozen or so blog entries.

Edited by s2art on Wednesday 10th February 15:27

Edited by s2art on Wednesday 10th February 15:38