So who wants to remain in the EU?
Discussion
Guybrush said:
Do you really think it will be a 'leap into the dark' or have you been primed to 'think' this by the inner's propaganda? Just think of countries who are already in the 'dark' who are prospering quite nicely without the giant hand of remote state control. Don't be confined by proximity either, not just Switzerland, but even say Australia who are quite happy to manage their own affairs.
Tuvalu seems to do OK managing its own affairs and it is 26 square KMs 
Guybrush said:
Do you really think it will be a 'leap into the dark' or have you been primed to 'think' this by the inner's propaganda? Just think of countries who are already in the 'dark' who are prospering quite nicely without the giant hand of remote state control. Don't be confined by proximity either, not just Switzerland, but even say Australia who are quite happy to manage their own affairs.
If it's not a 'leap into the dark' then please tell me what the effects will be on the UK economy, trade & jobs in the first 5 years after an exit from the EU. Also, please tell me your calculations for both the cost/benefit analysis for Brexit & how you came to those figures.Many thanks in advance.
zygalski said:
If it's not a 'leap into the dark' then please tell me what the effects will be on the UK economy, trade & jobs in the first 5 years after an exit from the EU. Also, please tell me your calculations for both the cost/benefit analysis for Brexit & how you came to those figures.
Many thanks in advance.
worst case scenario we exit we don't get a free trade deal with EU and we trade with them like the rest of the world do the maximum Terrace will get hit with is approximately 2% the only way to me outside of this is cars currently attract 10%.Many thanks in advance.
assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
Scuffers said:
zygalski said:
If it's not a 'leap into the dark' then please tell me what the effects will be on the UK economy, trade & jobs in the first 5 years after an exit from the EU. Also, please tell me your calculations for both the cost/benefit analysis for Brexit & how you came to those figures.
Many thanks in advance.
worst case scenario we exit we don't get a free trade deal with EU and we trade with them like the rest of the world do the maximum Terrace will get hit with is approximately 2% the only way to me outside of this is cars currently attract 10%.Many thanks in advance.
assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
I'll ask my chief economist to sift through those figures & let me know if we're better off in or out of the EU. It may take some time though, since you have kindly provided so much empirical data to analyse.
Scuffers said:
worst case scenario we exit we don't get a free trade deal with EU and we trade with them like the rest of the world do the maximum Terrace will get hit with is approximately 2% the only way to me outside of this is cars currently attract 10%.
assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
What about agricultural/food products? The average EU tariff is 18% on those.assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
plasticpig said:
Scuffers said:
worst case scenario we exit we don't get a free trade deal with EU and we trade with them like the rest of the world do the maximum Terrace will get hit with is approximately 2% the only way to me outside of this is cars currently attract 10%.
assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
What about agricultural/food products? The average EU tariff is 18% on those.assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
plasticpig said:
Scuffers said:
worst case scenario we exit we don't get a free trade deal with EU and we trade with them like the rest of the world do the maximum Terrace will get hit with is approximately 2% the only way to me outside of this is cars currently attract 10%.
assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
What about agricultural/food products? The average EU tariff is 18% on those.assuming we mirin the same tariffs then I really don't see it such a big deal bearing in mind Europe is only a market of 500 million people the rest of the world is a market at 6 and a half a billion people
point is so what?, they are inflated over the world price, so we simply do not bother with the EU, we sell our produce onto the world market, in fact we export very little agri produce to the EU, we import a hell of a lot more, that we could buy cheaper on the world market.
for the stuff we do export, we can just go on paying subsidies to our farmers the same way the CAP does not, but much more in-efficiently (the EU have dressed it all up in the single farm payment wrapped up with environmental b
ks to boot).we used to buy most of our milling wheat (for bread etc) from Canada before we turned our backs on them and joined the EEC, so we now pay through the nose to get it from Spain (and it's arguably lower quality).
plasticpig said:
s2art said:
We import far, far more than we export.
That doesn't help the producers who are reliant on exports to the EU though does it?Edited by fido on Tuesday 23 February 18:39
Thorodin said:
Hopefully, and especially in the media as opposed to inglorious struggles on-line, the arguments will mature into evidential facts that can be relied on. Although it is very early yet, only two days, amazingly little is actually 'known', be it In or Out. Further, there are very few credible observers giving views without an axe being ground.
So far the only way to make one's mind up is to go to the people involved. When you look at those politicians involved in the Out camp there is not even one there that I would have confidence in following an Out vote.
B.Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith, Grayling, Farage, Galloway. A motley Cap'n Pugwash crew. That ship would sink at the first trade wind. Hope it gets better.
With the possible, and I stress possible exception of Johnson, who could be PM, but probably wouldn't be forgiven for the turmoil in the Tory Party (he'll be seen as the traitor who wielded the knife) if Cameron quit, then it could be Osborne, unless the Tories felt unable to govern after the loss (but I don't think they would), parties don't give up power lightly. I suspect with an out vote (that's a big if btw) it'll be the super negotiator CMD leading any exit negotiation. Or Osborne. I can't imagine Cameron or Osborne having any of the Tories in that Out group in govt after a Brexit vote.So far the only way to make one's mind up is to go to the people involved. When you look at those politicians involved in the Out camp there is not even one there that I would have confidence in following an Out vote.
B.Johnson, Gove, Duncan-Smith, Grayling, Farage, Galloway. A motley Cap'n Pugwash crew. That ship would sink at the first trade wind. Hope it gets better.
So you wouldn't need to worry about the first trade wind.
Northern Munkee said:
With the possible, and I stress possible exception of Johnson, who could be PM, but probably wouldn't be forgiven for the turmoil in the Tory Party (he'll be seen as the traitor who wielded the knife) if Cameron quit, then it could be Osborne, unless the Tories felt unable to govern after the loss (but I don't think they would), parties don't give up power lightly. I suspect with an out vote (that's a big if btw) it'll be the super negotiator CMD leading any exit negotiation. Or Osborne. I can't imagine Cameron or Osborne having any of the Tories in that Out group in govt after a Brexit vote.
So you wouldn't need to worry about the first trade wind.
If we vote for Brexit then CMD is a dead man walking. It will not be him negotiating.So you wouldn't need to worry about the first trade wind.
fido said:
Yes, it does - because they (Germany, France) will not want to risk losing their Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. exports against imposing tariffs on our food exports. The worse case is if they illogically want to shrink their economy (and ours) but we still have the rest of the world to trade with.
Don't think is as simple as that. Transport of perishable goods to non EU countries would be hideously expensive. Edited by fido on Tuesday 23 February 18:39
plasticpig said:
fido said:
Yes, it does - because they (Germany, France) will not want to risk losing their Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. exports against imposing tariffs on our food exports. The worse case is if they illogically want to shrink their economy (and ours) but we still have the rest of the world to trade with.
Don't think is as simple as that. Transport of perishable goods to non EU countries would be hideously expensive. Edited by fido on Tuesday 23 February 18:39
plasticpig said:
fido said:
Yes, it does - because they (Germany, France) will not want to risk losing their Mercedes, BMW, Audi etc. exports against imposing tariffs on our food exports. The worse case is if they illogically want to shrink their economy (and ours) but we still have the rest of the world to trade with.
Don't think is as simple as that. Transport of perishable goods to non EU countries would be hideously expensive. Edited by fido on Tuesday 23 February 18:39
Food is shipped round the planet all the time.
Where do you think bananas come from?
s2art said:
Northern Munkee said:
With the possible, and I stress possible exception of Johnson, who could be PM, but probably wouldn't be forgiven for the turmoil in the Tory Party (he'll be seen as the traitor who wielded the knife) if Cameron quit, then it could be Osborne, unless the Tories felt unable to govern after the loss (but I don't think they would), parties don't give up power lightly. I suspect with an out vote (that's a big if btw) it'll be the super negotiator CMD leading any exit negotiation. Or Osborne. I can't imagine Cameron or Osborne having any of the Tories in that Out group in govt after a Brexit vote.
So you wouldn't need to worry about the first trade wind.
If we vote for Brexit then CMD is a dead man walking. It will not be him negotiating.So you wouldn't need to worry about the first trade wind.
plasticpig said:
Not all foods can be shipped like bananas are. Try shipping fresh beef/salmon like you do bananas and you will run into problems.
Salmon is exported all over the world already, uae is a massive market for Scottish salmon.Beef is easy, refrigerated containers, same way new Zealand lamb used to be shipped here before we joined the eec
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