BoE Base Rate, What if...

Author
Discussion

BigLion

1,497 posts

99 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Granfondo said:
BigLion said:
Gecko1978 said:
BigLion said:
This thread just highlights the lack of financial understanding of the markets within this forum and also demonstrate peoples desperate attempt to pretend they have the knowledge and pass this of as fact.

Honestly some of the things posted are laughable !!!
I disagree strongly the question what would happen if base rate rose is one of conjecture. If I knew exactly then I could become very rich with my crystal ball like ability. Facts as you say are hard to state when talking about future events. My own knowledge when working at LBG showed many books were what was a considered internally risky though pre the crash acceptable. The reality is many people do not have spare income to cover a large shock like a 4% rise as suggested. It does not need to be majority etc just a large minority defaulting and you have another crisis. An for the record I have 15 years credit and market risk experience so am happy I understand this.
I'm not sure I understand your response to my post - have you quoted the right person?
He is just letting you know that he is not one of the "laughable" posters!
So basically 15 years experience have taught you that some banks were operating beyond their means pre credit crunch vis-a-via a shock scenario - sorry but no st Sherlock.

BigLion

1,497 posts

99 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Jimboka said:
My Base rate + 0.59% IF mortgage taken out in 2008 was a lucky move. Not worth paying it off early, savings earn more.
As I'm costing them money, do mortgage companies cut a deal, lower settlement amount?
You are not costing them money. You can get a new fixed rate around that now.

No, they wont cut you a deal.
He may be costing them money depending on the liability side of the balance sheet - but no they won't be cutting you a deal !

anonymous-user

54 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
BigLion said:
gibbon said:
Jimboka said:
My Base rate + 0.59% IF mortgage taken out in 2008 was a lucky move. Not worth paying it off early, savings earn more.
As I'm costing them money, do mortgage companies cut a deal, lower settlement amount?
You are not costing them money. You can get a new fixed rate around that now.

No, they wont cut you a deal.
He may be costing them money depending on the liability side of the balance sheet - but no they won't be cutting you a deal !
Oh well, worth a try!
May as well let it run for the duration, or pay it off when/if the rates go up.
Funny how they write to me regularly though saying they may have more suitable deals (at far higher interest!!)
Can you really get a fixed rate @ 1,09% with no fees Gibbon? Doesn't make sense on the graphs

Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 24th April 18:06

Granfondo

12,241 posts

206 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
BigLion said:
Granfondo said:
BigLion said:
Gecko1978 said:
BigLion said:
This thread just highlights the lack of financial understanding of the markets within this forum and also demonstrate peoples desperate attempt to pretend they have the knowledge and pass this of as fact.

Honestly some of the things posted are laughable !!!
I disagree strongly the question what would happen if base rate rose is one of conjecture. If I knew exactly then I could become very rich with my crystal ball like ability. Facts as you say are hard to state when talking about future events. My own knowledge when working at LBG showed many books were what was a considered internally risky though pre the crash acceptable. The reality is many people do not have spare income to cover a large shock like a 4% rise as suggested. It does not need to be majority etc just a large minority defaulting and you have another crisis. An for the record I have 15 years credit and market risk experience so am happy I understand this.
I'm not sure I understand your response to my post - have you quoted the right person?
He is just letting you know that he is not one of the "laughable" posters!
So basically 15 years experience have taught you that some banks were operating beyond their means pre credit crunch vis-a-via a shock scenario - sorry but no st Sherlock.
I am not in the industry, just answering your stupid question but you crack on!

BigLion

1,497 posts

99 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
I was replying to the other guy who you answered on behalf of - sorry for the confusion!

Granfondo

12,241 posts

206 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
BigLion said:
I was replying to the other guy who you answered on behalf of - sorry for the confusion!
beer

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Jimboka said:
Oh well, worth a try!
May as well let it run for the duration, or pay it off when/if the rates go up.
Funny how they write to me regularly though saying they may have more suitable deals (at far higher interest!!)
Can you really get a fixed rate @ 1,09% with no fees Gibbon? Doesn't make sense on the graphs
Not even close!

gibbon

2,182 posts

207 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Jimboka said:
Oh well, worth a try!
May as well let it run for the duration, or pay it off when/if the rates go up.
Funny how they write to me regularly though saying they may have more suitable deals (at far higher interest!!)
Can you really get a fixed rate @ 1,09% with no fees Gibbon? Doesn't make sense on the graphs

Edited by Jimboka on Sunday 24th April 18:06
Not without fees, but that wasnt the question. wink

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Not without fees, but that wasnt the question. wink
Who is offering a 1.09% fix?

Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Cheapest I can get is 1.19 with first direct - not a million miles away smile

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
Cheapest I can get is 1.19 with first direct - not a million miles away smile
beer

BobToc

1,776 posts

117 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Who is offering a 1.09% fix?
Yorkshire Building Society were offering one until quite recently (I remortgaged with them a few months ago), but it's now popped up to 1.22% (still close to the lowest in the market I believe).

gibbon

2,182 posts

207 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
1.07% Yorkshire building society last time i checked, that was a month ago though to be fair.

Xaero

4,060 posts

215 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Anyone who got a mortgage since 2012 should be able to cope with 6%, that was the whole point of the stress testing from then. It obviously wouldn't be nice, and assumes you have the same salary/ies or better though. I always wondered if they were going to wait out for those who took mortgages before then to start clearing them before putting the rates up, in which case, people in general should be able to cope.

As we're only 4 years from 2012, if this was actually true, we still have a good 10years+ of low interest rates, enough time to get saving and get a pay rise.

boxedin

1,354 posts

126 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
I've seen stress testing of over 9% recently.

gibbon

2,182 posts

207 months

Sunday 24th April 2016
quotequote all
Xaero said:
Anyone who got a mortgage since 2012 should be able to cope with 6%, that was the whole point of the stress testing from then. It obviously wouldn't be nice, and assumes you have the same salary/ies or better though. I always wondered if they were going to wait out for those who took mortgages before then to start clearing them before putting the rates up, in which case, people in general should be able to cope.

As we're only 4 years from 2012, if this was actually true, we still have a good 10years+ of low interest rates, enough time to get saving and get a pay rise.
Why do people keep thinking 'they' set the base rate primarily with the affordability or not of the housing market? Mortgages are a function of the base rate, not the other way around.

The base rate is primarily a function of inflation, something we dont have enough of, no where near the generally perceived target of 2%.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

173 months

Monday 25th April 2016
quotequote all
gibbon said:
Xaero said:
Anyone who got a mortgage since 2012 should be able to cope with 6%, that was the whole point of the stress testing from then. It obviously wouldn't be nice, and assumes you have the same salary/ies or better though. I always wondered if they were going to wait out for those who took mortgages before then to start clearing them before putting the rates up, in which case, people in general should be able to cope.

As we're only 4 years from 2012, if this was actually true, we still have a good 10years+ of low interest rates, enough time to get saving and get a pay rise.
Why do people keep thinking 'they' set the base rate primarily with the affordability or not of the housing market? Mortgages are a function of the base rate, not the other way around.

The base rate is primarily a function of inflation, something we dont have enough of, no where near the generally perceived target of 2%.
We have plenty of inflation, but this is not picked up on official measures

Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

Monday 25th April 2016
quotequote all
Healthcare inflation running at over 8% according to my broker last year.

Murph7355

37,736 posts

256 months

Monday 25th April 2016
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
We have plenty of inflation, but this is not picked up on official measures
Only in certain areas. And it would be bad form to assess targets against one benchmark only then to shift the benchmark used when it doesn't suit. (Not that political types are immune to doing such things).

Adam Ansel

695 posts

106 months

Monday 25th April 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Only in certain areas. And it would be bad form to assess targets against one benchmark only then to shift the benchmark used when it doesn't suit. (Not that political types are immune to doing such things).
We have massive house price inflation, our nation's biggest problem. The cost of a roof over a person's head is now a huge % of their income. Thus seriously eroding life quality for many millions.
The ONLY answer is a big relaxation of planning rules.