How long would the EU last post Brexit?

[matsoc]

Given how slowly decisions are taken within the EU I think that at least 2-3 years would be necessary.
Anyway I am not even considering Brexit at the moment, I would see it as a huge step backward.

[TEKNOPUG]

ATG said:

TEKNOPUG said:

That will explain the dozens of EU politicos & bureaucrats from France, Germany and beyond who are more than happy for us to leave and certainly haven't issued any post Brexit threats, as we are such insignificant contributors and we'd be no loss to them, at all. Just buttons as you say. Glad you've cleared that up for us.

So France & Germany, being the big two Euro countries, should actually be encouraging us to leave, so that the Eurozone can expand and we can stop interfering with their integrationalist policies? That doesn't appear to be the case though, does it?

The contribution is buttons to the EU. The key thing that gets overlooked is that it is buttons to the UK economy too. If anyone seriously thinks redirecting that 10bn to education, defence, NHS or whatever is going to make much difference, they clearly have no idea how much money the UK state sector spends each year.

Of course our EU partners don't want us to leave. We bring a lot to the EU. Does that mean it'll collapse if we leave? No. Not sure why you think there is some contradiction?

If it's the square root of fk all, why are we and indeed anyone else being asked to pay it? Why are we giving Greece a £7bn "bridging loan"? Just write it off, it's fk all anyway.

The money is not really the point though, is it? YOU said "If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists."

Who are the big Euro economies? France & Germany.
Who of the big integrationalists? France & Germany.

So by your logic, it would be in their interests for us to leave the EU so that they can get on with their Euro economy and Federalist plan. They should actually be encouraging it.

Yet they clearly are opposed to us leaving. So either your logic is flawed or their's is.

[ATG]

TEKNOPUG said:

If it's the square root of fk all, why are we and indeed anyone else being asked to pay it? Why are we giving Greece a £7bn "bridging loan"? Just write it off, it's fk all anyway.

The money is not really the point though, is it? YOU said "If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists."

Who are the big Euro economies? France & Germany.
Who of the big integrationalists? France & Germany.

So by your logic, it would be in their interests for us to leave the EU so that they can get on with their Euro economy and Federalist plan. They should actually be encouraging it.

Yet they clearly are opposed to us leaving. So either your logic is flawed or their's is.

The third option is that your assumptions and deductions are flawed.

[TEKNOPUG]

ATG said:

The third option is that your assumptions and deductions are flawed.

It's your evidence. I can only work with what I'm given.

[ATG]

TEKNOPUG said:

ATG said:

The third option is that your assumptions and deductions are flawed.

It's your evidence. I can only work with what I'm given.

No, it's your model. You're the one saying simplistic stuff like "Germany is a big integrationist" and drawing conclusions from that assertion.

[lenny007]

I think assuming France and Germany will make up the shortfall is naive. It'll be spread amongst the 26 member states and for the smaller countries, that'll be where the contention is.

Lets see what happens when Malta, Portugal, Cyprus, Estonia, etc think when they've got to find their portion of the £10bn.

Just because someone can pay doesn't mean they'll want to.

[deltaevo16]

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.

If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.

While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.

So you think further expansion of the EU rather than shrinking, so how do you see further expansion?
I don't see this happening tbh, more likely a UK brexit will encourage more members seeking different terms, or maybe voting leave altogether. As much as you think Germany and France can continue to cough up, I see countries getting a little tired of the EU expansionist policies. Certainly the growth of the right in Germany and France could see a rather different picture in years to come.

I love how you think we have any real influence in Europe by the way. I said before that people who think we are better in, so we can be a voice for change, live in la la land.

[PoleDriver]

Who cares?

[Dr Jekyll]

ATG said:

The contribution is buttons to the EU. The key thing that gets overlooked is that it is buttons to the UK economy too. If anyone seriously thinks redirecting that 10bn to education, defence, NHS or whatever is going to make much difference, they clearly have no idea how much money the UK state sector spends each year.

UK defence budget is about 34 billion, another 10 would certainly make a difference.

[Northern Munkee]

Depends who is next? If we're the only one it'll continue, but if we're a domino, and I saw talk of a Nexit (Dutch) if we go as an original. Then I think it'll be over in 10years.

[eatcustard]

The EU as we know it will be gone within 5 years, other countries will want a referendum and st will hit the fan when they want out.

I can see a new EU as just a free trading area

[vsonix]

considering all this money is basically just mythical and doesn't exist tangibly in any one place, it does render the whole thing a bit fantastical.

[ClaphamGT3]

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.

If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.

While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.

Get out of here with your reasoned, logical arguments - as enny fule no, the EU will spontaneously combust on the 30th June, giving just enough time for the plague of locusts, disease, pestilence, famine and war to be visited on the member states in the week after the referendum

[Mr GrimNasty]

vsonix said:

considering all this money is basically just mythical and doesn't exist tangibly in any one place, it does render the whole thing a bit fantastical.

Some people believe countries should just print vast quantities of money to 'fight' climate change. It's a bit like sprinkling fairy dust on the hooves of unicorns to defeat the bogeyman under the bed.

[Guybrush]

It's worth noting that the EU won't remain in its current state of decline, the decline will accelerate - our leaving won't help, but the worst part is the imminent joining of Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. About 88 million people. All pretty much basket case economies desperate for some western EU money. Of course, if we vote 'in' they'll have access to the UK - NHS, jobs market, housing, schools.

[anonymous-user]

Kermit power said:

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ...

Careful! You're not allowed to use logic in discussing the EU on here!

Fortunately he hasn't. Comparing budget contributions to GDP is illogical. Greek GDP is ten times your EU budget contributions. So what? The risk to the EU of a Brexit isn't one of budget deficits but of nationalist contagion. In fact if you're going to bring GDP into this it's perhaps worth considering what happens to the GDP per capita of the EU if you leave.

(ps The EU has a GDP/capita of $36k compared to yours of $46k!)

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 2nd May 16:06

[turbobloke]

ClaphamGT3 said:

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.

If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.

While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.

Get out of here with your reasoned, logical arguments -

Surely the reasoning would have been logical if it had compared the GDP of France and Spain with UK GDP - or compared contributions as already suggested.

Better still...look at confidence aspects.

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

It's a sensible comparison because it shows how easily they could find an additional EUR10bn to plug the hole we'd leave. It's a tiny percentage of their economy.

If you me and Dave went to the pub for a few drinks and agreed to shove a fiver each into the kitty, you can't tell how affordable that fiver is to reach of us by looking at the other's contributions. You have to look at our individual incomes.

GDP isn't income! Both your initial comparison and analogy make no sense at all. 10bn might be 'buttons' but it's buttons all of you have to borrow because your GDP per capita is falling.

[TEKNOPUG]

ATG said:

TEKNOPUG said:

ATG said:

The third option is that your assumptions and deductions are flawed.

It's your evidence. I can only work with what I'm given.

No, it's your model. You're the one saying simplistic stuff like "Germany is a big integrationist" and drawing conclusions from that assertion.

So you're saying that Germany isn't a driving force for further integration? And I presume that France aren't either? Even though they are both the driving forces behind the Euro Zone?

So who are these "integrationalists" then?

So UK contributions are buttons and won't effect the EU if we leave?
If we leave, it will increase integration and strengthen the Euro Zone?
So why are the EU concerned about the UK leaving? It appears to benefit them.

Could it be that actually our contributions are a substantial amount to them and they are worried about how to make up the shortfall?
Could it be that they are concerned that others countries may also want to leave - but I thought that the EU was a great thing for all member states?
Or could it be that they'd regard us as a threat to their economy and project if we were outside it? Which would suggest that they fear that the UK would prosper from Brexit?

Either it doesn't matter to the EU if we leave, in which case we'd hear very little from the EU regarding Brexit.
Or they'd benefit from us leaving in which case we'd hear lots of positive Brexit talk from the EU
Or, as seems to be the case, it will damage the EU in some way if we leave, which is why we are hearing lots of negative comments from the EU about Brexit?

[vsonix]

Mr GrimNasty said:

vsonix said:

considering all this money is basically just mythical and doesn't exist tangibly in any one place, it does render the whole thing a bit fantastical.

Some people believe countries should just print vast quantities of money to 'fight' climate change. It's a bit like sprinkling fairy dust on the hooves of unicorns to defeat the bogeyman under the bed.

As long as they use hemp paper and sustainable inks, I don't see the problem...