How long would the EU last post Brexit?

[MrBarry123]

Axionknight said:

It won't collapse should we leave, it might even help them on the path towards a federal Europe since they wont have a nay sayer on the fringes casting doubt over such things.

Good luck to'em I say.

[anonymous-user]

lenny007 said:

I think assuming France and Germany will make up the shortfall is naive. It'll be spread amongst the 26 member states and for the smaller countries, that'll be where the contention is.

Lets see what happens when Malta, Portugal, Cyprus, Estonia, etc think when they've got to find their portion of the £10bn.

Just because someone can pay doesn't mean they'll want to.

Good post.

[ATG]

deltaevo16 said:

So you think further expansion of the EU rather than shrinking, so how do you see further expansion?
I don't see this happening tbh, more likely a UK brexit will encourage more members seeking different terms, or maybe voting leave altogether. As much as you think Germany and France can continue to cough up, I see countries getting a little tired of the EU expansionist policies. Certainly the growth of the right in Germany and France could see a rather different picture in years to come.

I love how you think we have any real influence in Europe by the way. I said before that people who think we are better in, so we can be a voice for change, live in la la land.

I said the Euro zone is likely to expand, not the EU.

I have no doubt you've said some people live in la la land. I think you're in la la land. So what?

[ATG]

TEKNOPUG said:

So you're saying that Germany isn't a driving force for further integration? And I presume that France aren't either? Even though they are both the driving forces behind the Euro Zone?

So who are these "integrationalists" then?

So UK contributions are buttons and won't effect the EU if we leave?
If we leave, it will increase integration and strengthen the Euro Zone?
So why are the EU concerned about the UK leaving? It appears to benefit them.

Could it be that actually our contributions are a substantial amount to them and they are worried about how to make up the shortfall?
Could it be that they are concerned that others countries may also want to leave - but I thought that the EU was a great thing for all member states?
Or could it be that they'd regard us as a threat to their economy and project if we were outside it? Which would suggest that they fear that the UK would prosper from Brexit?

Either it doesn't matter to the EU if we leave, in which case we'd hear very little from the EU regarding Brexit.
Or they'd benefit from us leaving in which case we'd hear lots of positive Brexit talk from the EU
Or, as seems to be the case, it will damage the EU in some way if we leave, which is why we are hearing lots of negative comments from the EU about Brexit?

Tech, you can keep repeating this as much as you like, but it still doesn't make any sense. You think there's a big push from France and Germany for a type of integration that the UK is currently opposing. There isn't. Removing the UK from the picture doesn't help the current French or German governments with shoring up the euro zone. It is to everyone's short term advantage for us to stay in the EU. There might well be a handful of die hard federalists out there hoping that we'll leave, but they're as mad as your average kipper brexiteer.

Over the longterm without the UK in the EU, the eurozone members will become a much larger percentage of the entire EU economy, hence why our exit will lead to the increasing marginalisation if the other non eurozone EU members. As I said, I expect this will encourage more of them to join the eurozone.

[ATG]

fblm said:

GDP isn't income! Both your initial comparison and analogy make no sense at all. 10bn might be 'buttons' but it's buttons all of you have to borrow because your GDP per capita is falling.

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

[turbobloke]

Europe cannot wait any longer France and Germany must drive ahead

Waiting for Godot a federal EU superstate. How absurd.

[wc98]

turbobloke said:

Europe cannot wait any longer France and Germany must drive ahead

Waiting for Godot a federal EU superstate. How absurd.

learn all about it here, or somewhere near you https://www.eventbrite.com/e/everything-you-always...

[deltaevo16]

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.

If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.

While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.

So you think further expansion of the EU rather than shrinking, so how do you see further expansion?
I don't see this happening tbh, more likely a UK brexit will encourage more members seeking different terms, or maybe voting leave altogether. As much as you think Germany and France can continue to cough up, I see countries getting a little tired of the EU expansionist policies. Certainly the growth of the right in Germany and France could see a rather different picture in years to come.

I love how you think we have any real influence in Europe by the way. I said before that people who think we are better in, so we can be a voice for change, live in la la land.

[paulrockliffe]

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Tax receipts would be a far more relevant measure than GDP. But the reality is that these countries are all running deficits and tax rises will harm growth, so it would all have to be borrowed. So GDP is largely irrelevant.

[ATG]

turbobloke said:

Europe cannot wait any longer France and Germany must drive ahead

Waiting for Godot a federal EU superstate. How absurd.

French socialist talks bks shocker

[ATG]

paulrockliffe said:

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Tax receipts would be a far more relevant measure than GDP. But the reality is that these countries are all running deficits and tax rises will harm growth, so it would all have to be borrowed. So GDP is largely irrelevant.

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

I said the Euro zone is likely to expand, not the EU.

So how would that work then? You are confusing yourself

[mondeoman]

ATG said:

paulrockliffe said:

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Tax receipts would be a far more relevant measure than GDP. But the reality is that these countries are all running deficits and tax rises will harm growth, so it would all have to be borrowed. So GDP is largely irrelevant.

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

Then they can pay our "share" and we'll stay

[mondeoman]

ATG said:

paulrockliffe said:

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Tax receipts would be a far more relevant measure than GDP. But the reality is that these countries are all running deficits and tax rises will harm growth, so it would all have to be borrowed. So GDP is largely irrelevant.

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

Then they can pay our "share" and we'll stay

[turbobloke]

wc98 said:

turbobloke said:

Europe cannot wait any longer France and Germany must drive ahead

Waiting for Godot a federal EU superstate. How absurd.

learn all about it here, or somewhere near you https://www.eventbrite.com/e/everything-you-always...

Waiting for Godot - an example of the genre absurdism.

Waiting for the EU superstate - an example of the genre only a matter of time.

ATG said:

turbobloke said:

Europe cannot wait any longer France and Germany must drive ahead

Waiting for Godot a federal EU superstate. How absurd.

French socialist talks bks shocker

[turbobloke]

mondeoman said:

ATG said:

paulrockliffe said:

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Tax receipts would be a far more relevant measure than GDP. But the reality is that these countries are all running deficits and tax rises will harm growth, so it would all have to be borrowed. So GDP is largely irrelevant.

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

Then they can pay our "share" and we'll stay

As long as we can ignore any and all Directives if the UK government so wishes... and the ever closer onions can stick Das Projekt up their market

[anonymous-user]

ATG said:

What measure of economic activity would you prefer to use as a yardstick of whether 10bn was a large or small about for a given country to find? Most economists' first port of call is going to be GDP.

National budget surplus would be a good place to start. Oh look, 10bn just swallowed all of Germanys 2015 record surplus! They are going to be thrilled. Most economists use GDP huh? Wow. As appeals to authority go, that's right down there.

ATG said:

Given didn't bother to explain why the analogies were inappropriate, let me answer you like this, "I'm right, you're wrong. Nah, nah, nah."

Well that's a better argument than comparing to GDP. GDP isn't income. I'd assumed that was explanation enough as to why your pub analogy doesn't work. They rarely do.

I already said a 10bn hole in the EU budget isn't going to break it. They are nothing if not adept at financial conjuring. As another poster has said, if you leave it might actually be good for the block, allowing them to federalise faster, which would also be good for you. Anyway, it's looking increasingly like you won't leave, at which point you'll have bluffed and lost and then they will fvck you, pour encourager les autre. Enjoy.

[powerstroke]

deltaevo16 said:

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies. The loss of our contributions would be of very little consequence to the EU.

If we leave the big impact is removing the one large non-Euro economy from the EU. This will shift the political centre of mass squarely into the Euro zone and will be a big boost to the integrationists. The other non-Euro EU members would likely start getting marginalised. So either the Euro zone expands or the EU shrinks. I expect the former. For the UK, we'll end up with a more tightly integrated, more protectionist neighbour with fewer members who are our natural economic allies.

While we remain in the EU we are a powerful voice and rallying point for liberal free market economics and we've been winning that fight comfortably for years. Seems daft to throw that influence away.

So you think further expansion of the EU rather than shrinking, so how do you see further expansion?
I don't see this happening tbh, more likely a UK brexit will encourage more members seeking different terms, or maybe voting leave altogether. As much as you think Germany and France can continue to cough up, I see countries getting a little tired of the EU expansionist policies. Certainly the growth of the right in Germany and France could see a rather different picture in years to come.

I love how you think we have any real influence in Europe by the way. I said before that people who think we are better in, so we can be a voice for change, live in la la land.

Yes the evil woman won't rule Germany for ever , seems its finally dawning on the average German there country is going down the toilet ....

[gothatway]

fblm said:

it's looking increasingly like you won't leave

Really ? I get the feeling that it's going the other way.

[deltaevo16]

ATG said:

deltaevo16 said:

So you think further expansion of the EU rather than shrinking, so how do you see further expansion?
I don't see this happening tbh, more likely a UK brexit will encourage more members seeking different terms, or maybe voting leave altogether. As much as you think Germany and France can continue to cough up, I see countries getting a little tired of the EU expansionist policies. Certainly the growth of the right in Germany and France could see a rather different picture in years to come.

I love how you think we have any real influence in Europe by the way. I said before that people who think we are better in, so we can be a voice for change, live in la la land.

I said the Euro zone is likely to expand, not the EU.

I have no doubt you've said some people live in la la land. I think you're in la la land. So what?

I expected nothing less from you, Your such a troll.