How long would the EU last post Brexit?

[anonymous-user]

gothatway said:

fblm said:

it's looking increasingly like you won't leave

Really ? I get the feeling that it's going the other way.

I hope you're right but GBPUSD would suggest the big money thinks otherwise. Obama's intervention coincided with the turning point.

[Esseesse]

zbc said:

Because their GDP will have to pay our contribution.

The EU will do fine unless we manage to secure a particularly good deal when we leave. If this happens other countries will be tempted to leave and go for the same deal. This is one of many reasons why you can be sure it will not be easy to get a good deal if we leave.

But if they don't give us a 'good deal', what if we don't give them a 'good deal'. I'm not actually sure if much 'deal' needs to be done. Do we have a 'good deal' with China? IIRC I don't think we do, yet shops are crammed full of products that are made in China.

[TEKNOPUG]

ATG said:

Tech, you can keep repeating this as much as you like, but it still doesn't make any sense. You think there's a big push from France and Germany for a type of integration that the UK is currently opposing. There isn't. Removing the UK from the picture doesn't help the current French or German governments with shoring up the euro zone. It is to everyone's short term advantage for us to stay in the EU. There might well be a handful of die hard federalists out there hoping that we'll leave, but they're as mad as your average kipper brexiteer.

Over the longterm without the UK in the EU, the eurozone members will become a much larger percentage of the entire EU economy, hence why our exit will lead to the increasing marginalisation if the other non eurozone EU members. As I said, I expect this will encourage more of them to join the eurozone.

And how does the UK help shore up the Euro-zone? Other than giving them money? Why are we helping to bail out their failed project? They were ones who allowed the PIIGS to fraudulently cook their books in order to create this whole mess and they're the ones who have abjectly failed to deal with the Greece debt crisis and are happy to continue kicking the issue down the road.

"Removing the UK from the picture doesn't help the current French or German governments with shoring up the euro zone" I agree. It doesn't. It's their problem. They've created this mess, designed to specifically benefit their nations and now you want me to subsidise the German economy & industry as things start to inevitably go tits up? No thanks.

You say in it's in our short-term interest to remain. How short? When will it be in our interests to leave? It clearly think that at some point it will be prudent to leave

[zbc]

Esseesse said:

zbc said:

Because their GDP will have to pay our contribution.

The EU will do fine unless we manage to secure a particularly good deal when we leave. If this happens other countries will be tempted to leave and go for the same deal. This is one of many reasons why you can be sure it will not be easy to get a good deal if we leave.

But if they don't give us a 'good deal', what if we don't give them a 'good deal'. I'm not actually sure if much 'deal' needs to be done. Do we have a 'good deal' with China? IIRC I don't think we do, yet shops are crammed full of products that are made in China.

Not sure if serious? Products made in China are of reasonable quality and mostly much much cheaper than similar ones produced in the UK. Tariffs would need to be much higher to keep them out of shops. Costs across Western Europe are pretty similar to the UK, although Eastern Europe is cheaper though generally still costlier than China so even low tariff levels could have an impact. I don't think those impacts would be big but the EU represents about 40% of our exports so losing 10% of that would hurt a little. EU exports to us are much smaller as a proportion of total EU exports so losing 10% of them would have much less impact. We need a good deal a lot more than the rest of the EU needs one as well as for my original reasons noted above.

[Jinx]

ATG said:

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

And the Germans are so happy with Merkal they'll happily pay the short fall and bail out Greece again
You are very good at spending other countries money ATG are you sure you are not a Eurocrat?

[0000]

ATG said:

France and Germany have a combined GDP of about 6.5 trillion EUR. The UK's net contribution to the EU is about 10 billion EUR ... or in other words, it is buttons, the square root of fk all, compared to the size of the EU economies.

What does France and Germany's GDP have to do with the survival of the EU? And why is it being compared not with our GDP but our contribution to the EU?

[zbc]

0000 said:

What does France and Germany's GDP have to do with the survival of the EU? And why is it being compared not with our GDP but our contribution to the EU?

Because one of the posited reasons for the demise of the EU is financial collapse following the removal of the UK's contribution. The point here is that the amount is small compared to the size of the German and French economy. Ultimately there are many reasons why the EU will fail, and it will eventually of course, just like all other countries, empires, companies etc eventually do. The lack of 10 billion from the UK however will not be the direct cause.

[fido]

This is a good question, and perhaps why we are being coerced to stay in the EU. I don't think it will totally collapse but revert to the original founders France and Germany and perhaps Italy. Those countries which are traditionally independent e.g. Denmark & Sweden will follow us with their own referendum. Eastern Europe and ilk - will continue to drag down the Remainers akin to former East Germany whilst we will flourish outside. Germany will elect a Trump-a-like and build a huge wall along the border to keep them out.

[TEKNOPUG]

fido said:

This is a good question, and perhaps why we are being coerced to stay in the EU. I don't think it will totally collapse but revert to the original founders France and Germany and perhaps Italy. Those countries which are traditionally independent e.g. Denmark & Sweden will follow us with their own referendum. Eastern Europe and ilk - will continue to drag down the Remainers akin to former East Germany whilst we will flourish outside. Germany will elect a Trump-a-like and build a huge wall along the border to keep them out.

I'm pretty sure France & Germany don't want to be tied to a basket case economy like Italy - it's one cough away from life-support. In fact, the French economy is hardly a roaring success at the moment. If you were going to have a trading block and even political union, then it should be of like-minded countries, who share similar political, economic & social beliefs, have a shared history of people & language and similar cultures. So UK, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway & Sweden would work well. Trying to match them up with the Southern, latin countries, of which they share nothing in common other than physical proximity is simply folly.

[ATG]

Jinx said:

ATG said:

These "GDP aren't the right metric" posts are desperate. You could replace GDP with GNI or tax receipts if you like. They are all very highly correlated with GDP and tell you bugger all more when all we're trying to do is get a handle on the relative magnitude of 10bn euros. And IIRC Germany is running a budget surplus at the moment ... something like 0.5%, so bugger all really, yet still rather more than the UK's net contribution to the EU.

And the Germans are so happy with Merkal they'll happily pay the short fall and bail out Greece again
You are very good at spending other countries money ATG are you sure you are not a Eurocrat?

Enough. I'm out. I'm all for discussing this stuff, but this kind of response typifies the way all the Brexit threads on PH are going. Jinx your response literally makes no sense. You are confusing the UK contribution to the mechanisms used (and abused) to bail out Greece and you can't spell Merkel. And your final flourish is a pointless insult. Congratulations.

[fido]

TEKNOPUG said:

I'm pretty sure France & Germany don't want to be tied to a basket case economy like Italy - it's one cough away from life-support. In fact, the French economy is hardly a roaring success at the moment.

Well they are currently tied to 20+ basket cases. It's like how groups of pretty girls hang out with one or two uglies - either to make them feel better or themselves - or in EUSSR as a source of cheaper labour and a captive market for their produce. Who do you think buys all those filthy VWs? Also the cited reason for the formation of the EU was to keep Germany and France at peace. Of course NATO did away with that but we still need a buffer from Russia which is where Eastern Europe comes to play, though it has moved eastwards in recent times.

[TEKNOPUG]

fido said:

TEKNOPUG said:

I'm pretty sure France & Germany don't want to be tied to a basket case economy like Italy - it's one cough away from life-support. In fact, the French economy is hardly a roaring success at the moment.

Well they are currently tied to 20+ basket cases. It's like how groups of pretty girls hang out with one or two uglies - either to make them feel better or themselves - or in EUSSR as a source of cheaper labour and a captive market for their produce. Who do you think buys all those filthy VWs? Also the cited reason for the formation of the EU was to keep Germany and France at peace. Of course NATO did away with that but we still need a buffer from Russia which is where Eastern Europe comes to play, though it has moved eastwards in recent times.

Because 2 countries can't share a border without launching Armageddon on the world, everyone else has to fall in line with das projekt. It's just a ruse. Because NATO. Because French nuclear weapons. It's just an excuse for their economic policies. It's protectionist racket to support the inefficiencies of French industry and to subsidise the German industry; keep wages low and give money to the poorer countries so they can buy from the richer. And like all protection rackets, there are very implied threats should you ever wish to leave. Still, as least we've not had WW3, yet.

[Jinx]

ATG said:

Enough. I'm out. I'm all for discussing this stuff, but this kind of response typifies the way all the Brexit threads on PH are going. Jinx your response literally makes no sense. You are confusing the UK contribution to the mechanisms used (and abused) to bail out Greece and you can't spell Merkel. And your final flourish is a pointless insult. Congratulations.

Ultimately the people of Germany will pay (as the biggest net contributors) . There have already been many examples of unrest in Germany over the continued bail of Greece and the rest of the Mediterranean countries. The mechanism is irrelevent as the ones doing the paying are always the same.
Yes I can't spell Perkel but then again not many in Germany will be putting an X next to her name in the next elections no matter how it is spelt.
Eurocrat from Wiki - "a staff member of the administrative commission of the European Union" - I would have thought that was only an insult for the "Brexit" supporters It was purely in the context of your continued "it is only £10 Billion, France and Germany would barely notice it" defence of the EU and how quick you are to spend German and French taxpayers money to make up for any budgetary imbalance.

[AJL308]

TEKNOPUG said:

fido said:

This is a good question, and perhaps why we are being coerced to stay in the EU. I don't think it will totally collapse but revert to the original founders France and Germany and perhaps Italy. Those countries which are traditionally independent e.g. Denmark & Sweden will follow us with their own referendum. Eastern Europe and ilk - will continue to drag down the Remainers akin to former East Germany whilst we will flourish outside. Germany will elect a Trump-a-like and build a huge wall along the border to keep them out.

I'm pretty sure France & Germany don't want to be tied to a basket case economy like Italy - it's one cough away from life-support. In fact, the French economy is hardly a roaring success at the moment. If you were going to have a trading block and even political union, then it should be of like-minded countries, who share similar political, economic & social beliefs, have a shared history of people & language and similar cultures. So UK, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway & Sweden would work well. Trying to match them up with the Southern, latin countries, of which they share nothing in common other than physical proximity is simply folly.

And it will get much, much worse when Counties like Turkey are allowed in. Their culture and way of life is utterly different to that of North Western Europe. They are totally incompatible. The idea of counties with such different values being allowed in is scary, quite frankly.