Implications of Brexit!

[B'stard Child]

ATG said:

B'stard Child said:

Boring_Chris said:

I realise this is a combative post (for PH) but if anyone can convince me with facts and figures why the leave vote is the right one, I'll happily settle down.

Because it was a vote for a better future - you can't see it - don't worry you will

There were no accurate fact in the "debacle" both side called a campaign just polar opposite views and there in the lost in all of that was the true middle ground

And democracy could see it

The man said "facts and figures" and you've answered with flatulence. Congratulations.

There are none everything used in the campaign was guess or spin or lies or exaguration and sometimes all of them

No one knows - we just stepped of a cliff no idea if the beech was 12 inches or 120 feet

I think it's a couple of feet bend your knees when landing

[SVS]

B'stard Child said:

No one knows - we just stepped of a cliff no idea if the beech was 12 inches or 120 feet

And off the cliff we go!

It looks like the EU may try to give us a hard landing, in order to make an example of the UK to discourage other countries from following suit. A Norway-style deal could be off the cards for us.

[B'stard Child]

SVS said:

B'stard Child said:

No one knows - we just stepped of a cliff no idea if the beech was 12 inches or 120 feet

And off the cliff we go!

That's the spirit

[AlexC1981]

So many Brexit threads it's hard to choose one to post to! There are just a three points I wanted to make.

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide.

Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay. Obviously I'm not talking about something like a particular car manufacturer. If European cars become too expensive there are alternatives. I would be happy driving a non-European car for a few years until the EU sees sense or even forever if necessary.

There is a benefit to a reduced level of immigration and I think we can breathe a sigh of relief that we are out before Turkey joined up. This is not intended to express a racist point of view as I have nothing against the Turks. With reduced levels of immigration we can let our housing stock catch up with the population to say nothing of our roads, schools, hospitals and other services and infrastructure.

Just googled for some back-up and according to the article below, our population rose by 6.1 million people from 1992 to 2012. This is a rise of 11% of our population in just 20 years. According to the article 40% of those people were immigrants. This is a significant number that should not be ignored.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2386812/Im...

This website shows the figures slightly higher with an increase from 3.8 million migrants in total in 1993 to over 8.3 million in 2014.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings...

Housing is very expensive where I live in the South East. London and the South East has by far the highest proportion of migrants and you can't tell me this is not a contributing factor to the high cost of housing.

My third point was that I will be glad if we no longer pay money to the EU then get a portion back as a rebate. That portion we didn't get back was partially being spent developing other EU countries. Much more sensible to spend it on our own housing and infrastructure instead.

[Kolbenkopp]

AlexC1981 said:

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide. Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay.

You've got this the wrong way around I think. The question is how is the UK going to pay for anything it would like to import? What is made in UK where an alternative does not exist anywhere? A part from light weight sports cars, F1 teams and warm beer (2 out of 3 will be tricky )?

The EU will be more than glad to keep on selling goods to the UK without any tariffs. Once the UK is fully out, it can decide if wants to protect the home market with import duties. But so can the EU. And the UK is in a weaker bargaining position due to the relative size of the markets, already doing over 50% of it's trade with the EU and not having any geopolitical orientation it could bargain with. Assuming the UK does not suddenly leave NATO and decides to ally with Russia...

[DukeDickson]

AlexC1981 said:

So many Brexit threads it's hard to choose one to post to! There are just a three points I wanted to make.

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide.

Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay. Obviously I'm not talking about something like a particular car manufacturer. If European cars become too expensive there are alternatives. I would be happy driving a non-European car for a few years until the EU sees sense or even forever if necessary.

There is a benefit to a reduced level of immigration and I think we can breathe a sigh of relief that we are out before Turkey joined up. This is not intended to express a racist point of view as I have nothing against the Turks. With reduced levels of immigration we can let our housing stock catch up with the population to say nothing of our roads, schools, hospitals and other services and infrastructure.

Just googled for some back-up and according to the article below, our population rose by 6.1 million people from 1992 to 2012. This is a rise of 11% of our population in just 20 years. According to the article 40% of those people were immigrants. This is a significant number that should not be ignored.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2386812/Im...

This website shows the figures slightly higher with an increase from 3.8 million migrants in total in 1993 to over 8.3 million in 2014.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings...

Housing is very expensive where I live in the South East. London and the South East has by far the highest proportion of migrants and you can't tell me this is not a contributing factor to the high cost of housing.

My third point was that I will be glad if we no longer pay money to the EU then get a portion back as a rebate. That portion we didn't get back was partially being spent developing other EU countries. Much more sensible to spend it on our own housing and infrastructure instead.

The first very much works both ways.
Given we don't have a pile of natural resources, we seem to be banking on being sufficiently different and/or better. Only time will tell, though I obviously have my own view on this.

The second probably does as well. Is it really going to become some apparent nirvana?

The third, who really knows? Yes we won't pay the club membership fee (assuming we aren't even doing a Norway/Switzerland thing, we don't really have the cash anyway), but the wider financial implications could quite possibly wipe that positive out, and some. Then again, there is always a chance of something better.


Whatever I might actually think of the decision, gut feel says there may be some hard yards ahead. Whether or not there's light after that - ?

[AlexC1981]

Kolbenkopp said:

AlexC1981 said:

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide. Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay.

You've got this the wrong way around I think. The question is how is the UK going to pay for anything it would like to import? What is made in UK where an alternative does not exist anywhere? A part from light weight sports cars, F1 teams and warm beer (2 out of 3 will be tricky )?

The EU will be more than glad to keep on selling goods to the UK without any tariffs. Once the UK is fully out, it can decide if wants to protect the home market with import duties. But so can the EU. And the UK is in a weaker bargaining position due to the relative size of the markets, already doing over 50% of it's trade with the EU and not having any geopolitical orientation it could bargain with. Assuming the UK does not suddenly leave NATO and decides to ally with Russia...

That's interesting, thank you. Looking at last years GDP figures we are 21% the size of the entire EU in terms of GDP if you exclude the UK from the EU figure, so not exactly tiny + we buy more from them than they do from us. I would hope any tariffs raised by the EU would be countered by the UK at the negotiating table. I agree that the fact that the UK sells 50% of our stuff to the EU greatly helps the EU's position, but I think the trade deficit should help ours. In the meantime, we must make stronger trading ties with the rest of the world.

[AlexC1981]

DukeDickson said:

The first very much works both ways.
Given we don't have a pile of natural resources, we seem to be banking on being sufficiently different and/or better. Only time will tell, though I obviously have my own view on this.

The second probably does as well. Is it really going to become some apparent nirvana?

The third, who really knows? Yes we won't pay the club membership fee (assuming we aren't even doing a Norway/Switzerland thing, we don't really have the cash anyway), but the wider financial implications could quite possibly wipe that positive out, and some. Then again, there is always a chance of something better.


Whatever I might actually think of the decision, gut feel says there may be some hard yards ahead. Whether or not there's light after that - ?

Just regarding the second point, we wouldn't have got better the way things were going. Anyway, good luck to us all, our European friends included.

[Jader1973]

AlexC1981 said:

That's interesting, thank you. Looking at last years GDP figures we are 21% the size of the entire EU in terms of GDP if you exclude the UK from the EU figure, so not exactly tiny + we buy more from them than they do from us. I would hope any tariffs raised by the EU would be countered by the UK at the negotiating table. I agree that the fact that the UK sells 50% of our stuff to the EU greatly helps the EU's position, but I think the trade deficit should help ours. In the meantime, we must make stronger trading ties with the rest of the world.

You are assuming that the exporters stay in the UK and that EU residents keep buying UK made products. I'm struggling to think of anything made in the UK that isn't available in the EU except whiskey. I don't think they rely on the UK for anything.

Look at the car industry:
If for example the EU applied a 15% tariff on anything from the UK then I suspect Nissan would use their Renault relationship to shift production to France. The EU could also offer incentives to attract Toyota to Spain (for example) and Honda already have a plant in Turkey. GM have plants throughout Europe. JLR would probably bugger off to the US, and BMW would move Mini to Germany or Poland.

Apply that across everything UK made and there is a significant problem.

I'm afraid the Out voters have no idea of the potential implications of exiting.

[Wadeski]

AlexC1981 said:

Kolbenkopp said:

AlexC1981 said:

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide. Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay.

You've got this the wrong way around I think. The question is how is the UK going to pay for anything it would like to import? What is made in UK where an alternative does not exist anywhere? A part from light weight sports cars, F1 teams and warm beer (2 out of 3 will be tricky )?

The EU will be more than glad to keep on selling goods to the UK without any tariffs. Once the UK is fully out, it can decide if wants to protect the home market with import duties. But so can the EU. And the UK is in a weaker bargaining position due to the relative size of the markets, already doing over 50% of it's trade with the EU and not having any geopolitical orientation it could bargain with. Assuming the UK does not suddenly leave NATO and decides to ally with Russia...

That's interesting, thank you. Looking at last years GDP figures we are 21% the size of the entire EU in terms of GDP if you exclude the UK from the EU figure, so not exactly tiny + we buy more from them than they do from us. I would hope any tariffs raised by the EU would be countered by the UK at the negotiating table. I agree that the fact that the UK sells 50% of our stuff to the EU greatly helps the EU's position, but I think the trade deficit should help ours. In the meantime, we must make stronger trading ties with the rest of the world.

The big open switch here - financial services. The City of London gets a huge amount of press for 3% of UK GDP, but when you consider the knock-on effects a big dip in financial activity might have (on housing markets, construction, tech, higher education etc) and how uncertain it is whether membership of Europe is truly important to financial firms, its a massive economic gamble to take.

I'm sure someone will come on to say don't be silly, we had the City before Europe but we also had the worlds second largest car industry in the past, and conditions and times change. Its a massive gamble, and we shouldn't pretend that Frankfurt, Luxembourg and perhaps even new upstarts (a low-tax, in EU Dublin?) don't want to compete for that business.

[Jader1973]

Wadeski said:

The big open switch here - financial services. The City of London gets a huge amount of press for 3% of UK GDP, but when you consider the knock-on effects a big dip in financial activity might have (on housing markets, construction, tech, higher education etc) and how uncertain it is whether membership of Europe is truly important to financial firms, its a massive economic gamble to take.

I'm sure someone will come on to say don't be silly, we had the City before Europe but we also had the worlds second largest car industry in the past, and conditions and times change. Its a massive gamble, and we shouldn't pretend that Frankfurt, Luxembourg and perhaps even new upstarts (a low-tax, in EU Dublin?) don't want to compete for that business.

I know a guy who works for a large US bank - from his home office in Melbourne.

I suspect Finance Services would be one of the easier things to move.

[anonymous-user]

80% debt of GDP still won't change after EU exit, hopefully use some of the money to pay it off.

When the EU was set up I think no country could have more than 30% debt against GDP, how things have changed.

[eccles]

SVS said:

And off the cliff we go!

It looks like the EU may try to give us a hard landing, in order to make an example of the UK to discourage other countries from following suit. A Norway-style deal could be off the cards for us.

Comments like this really make me chuckle.
All the way through the remain campaign two of the most popular words used were "could" and "may", and then they moan about the out campaigns lack of facts!
Both sides were bloody awful during the campaign, there is no moral high ground.

[eccles]

Boring_Chris said:

I realise this is a combative post (for PH) but if anyone can convince me with facts and figures why the leave vote is the right one, I'll happily settle down.

Isn't it a bit late to be asking for "facts"?
Right from the very beginning of the campaign one of the biggest complaints from "the man in the street" being interviewed was the lack of facts. Both sides ran with crappy scaremongering tactics and treated the voting public with contempt.

[MrCheese]

AlexC1981 said:

So many Brexit threads it's hard to choose one to post to! There are just a three points I wanted to make.

I've read a few times that people are worried about the big bad EU punishing us for exiting by refusing to agree fair trade agreements. Surely by doing this, they just make themselves an uncompetitive market and by default British based companies will buy internally or from other sources worldwide.

Is there anything made in Europe where an alternative does not exist elsewhere? Where a product sells there is always a competitor and in the rare cases that it is the only option, we'll just have to suck it up and pay. Obviously I'm not talking about something like a particular car manufacturer. If European cars become too expensive there are alternatives. I would be happy driving a non-European car for a few years until the EU sees sense or even forever if necessary.

There is a benefit to a reduced level of immigration and I think we can breathe a sigh of relief that we are out before Turkey joined up. This is not intended to express a racist point of view as I have nothing against the Turks. With reduced levels of immigration we can let our housing stock catch up with the population to say nothing of our roads, schools, hospitals and other services and infrastructure.

Just googled for some back-up and according to the article below, our population rose by 6.1 million people from 1992 to 2012. This is a rise of 11% of our population in just 20 years. According to the article 40% of those people were immigrants. This is a significant number that should not be ignored.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2386812/Im...

This website shows the figures slightly higher with an increase from 3.8 million migrants in total in 1993 to over 8.3 million in 2014.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings...

Housing is very expensive where I live in the South East. London and the South East has by far the highest proportion of migrants and you can't tell me this is not a contributing factor to the high cost of housing.

My third point was that I will be glad if we no longer pay money to the EU then get a portion back as a rebate. That portion we didn't get back was partially being spent developing other EU countries. Much more sensible to spend it on our own housing and infrastructure instead.

most of what you've written is related to the level of immigration....have you seen the interviews yesterday with Hannan etc...they are directly saying that levels won't fall....

[SVS]

Alex, the reason for all the comments about the "big bad EU" punishing us is that senior EU officials have said as much.

The reason the EU has to make it tough for the UK is because the EU's survival is impacted by this. If we get a good deal, with excellent trade deals, then it makes it look appealing for other countries to follow suit. That would be the end of the EU. Hence it's strongly in the interest of the EU to be tough on the UK.

EU officials have already commented that a Norway-style deal isn't on the table.

[Hub]

Unforeseen consequence: millions of us will need to fork out for new number plates!

[plasticpig]

Hub said:

Unforeseen consequence: millions of us will neednd to fork out for new number plates!

And photo driving licences , passports etc.

[Evanivitch]

The Spruce goose said:

80% debt of GDP still won't change after EU exit, hopefully use some of the money to pay it off.

When the EU was set up I think no country could have more than 30% debt against GDP, how things have changed.

Hang on, i thought all that money was for the NHS, science, farmers and poorer regions?

[spankbank]

For me personally I will not be building any more houses to sell for the next 2-3 years. It's just too much of a risk. So that's £500,000 minimum removed from the local economy and at least 2 less jobs.
Why would I risk my life savings?
That is an immediate result of the out vote.
Also we are seriously considering moving to Canada as well as we do not want to bring our children up in an inwardly looking country.
So enjoy the results of the leave vote. I am just one person but I believe those that can leave will.