Implications of Brexit!
Discussion
chrispmartha said:
This is one thing i am struggling to get my head around. Why has the leave vote made you and the other people in your working class northern town made you so optimistic sbout the future? (Im being genuine here by the way).
It looks quite possible we could have a tory government with Boris Johnson at the helm and there is a real possibility of the economy taking a downturn for a few years at least. That doesnt sound like a thing to be optimistic about for a working class northern town.
As i say i am genuinely interested as to why this is being hailed as a victory for 'ordinary' working class people.
I have to admit that this is an element of the Brexit vote that I cannot get my head around as they've almost certainly slit their own throats by voting for even more austerity and fewer enforced benefits from the EU. It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over but then these people have been consistently lied to by their leaders that the EU is to blame for all their woes and consistently stabbed in the back by successive Governments, none more so than Labour. It looks quite possible we could have a tory government with Boris Johnson at the helm and there is a real possibility of the economy taking a downturn for a few years at least. That doesnt sound like a thing to be optimistic about for a working class northern town.
As i say i am genuinely interested as to why this is being hailed as a victory for 'ordinary' working class people.
Unless they are suddenly willing to do the jobs that immigrants are brought in for (which they won't be) or a Govt suddenly shifts employment to the North (which it won't) then they have bafflingly voted for more misery in many regards. They only thing that could benefit them is if we have a proper correction in the value of resi property along with laws to prevent investment capital from snapping up all the assets (which won't happen).
sanf said:
A genuine question and hopefully someone on PH will have the knowledge on this.
The current trade deficit with then EU is £23.9bn, so we buy more than we sell. If the EU decides that the trade deal with the UK will be based on 10% tariffs. You would have to hope the UK government with make these reciprocal.
If that was the case - does that make the deficit £23.9bn + 10% on anything coming into the UK?
If so what would stop the government using the 10% income to rebate all the companies exporting from the UK, thus giving them a net cost of £0, while accessing the single market?
Businesses care about profit, so if access to the market is maintained with no extra cost will that have an impact?
I appreciate this may have over-simplified the issue slightly, but is the above possible? The government would be collecting our tariffs, and being outside the EU, could they spend this however they saw fit?
As you say, reciprocal tariffs will help no one but the trade balance figures don't include services where we have a positive balance, so the negotiation is a little more nuanced.The current trade deficit with then EU is £23.9bn, so we buy more than we sell. If the EU decides that the trade deal with the UK will be based on 10% tariffs. You would have to hope the UK government with make these reciprocal.
If that was the case - does that make the deficit £23.9bn + 10% on anything coming into the UK?
If so what would stop the government using the 10% income to rebate all the companies exporting from the UK, thus giving them a net cost of £0, while accessing the single market?
Businesses care about profit, so if access to the market is maintained with no extra cost will that have an impact?
I appreciate this may have over-simplified the issue slightly, but is the above possible? The government would be collecting our tariffs, and being outside the EU, could they spend this however they saw fit?
If they try to stop access for us to sell services, we might take a more robust view on trade tariffs, which will hurt them, so where is the compromise...?
Anglade said:
DonkeyApple said:
It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over
Exactly.Look at the areas that voted massively for Brexit - all Labour's traditional heartlands.
Where were the strong Labour voices warning about the ramifications?
Where in the f*ck was Corbyn?
ATG said:
harry henderson said:
There seems to be some real bitterness on here. More people wanted out than in, simple as that. If after 40 years of being in this is the best Britain can be then I say lets try being out. According to some of these posts and the names and accusations that they imply then I must be a real nasty piece of work for daring to want to try a different route to improve things for me and my family.
There's nothing wrong with wanting to improve things for you and your family. But our problems are home grown. They aren't caused by EU membership. Leaving the EU just makes our economic prospects worse.The other uncomfortable economic truth is that just how are elderly people from the regions going to 'make Britain better'. I'm not having a jibe at all but merely looking at the cold reality. If they have the actual ability to make Britain better than it was then why have they not done so to date? Nothing has been stopping them.
And the final truth is that the UK is London centric. It's economic future will be determined by London's ability to go out in the world and fight for new business. Seeing as 75% of London voted to remain and in reality the 25% will have mostly been low skilled whites then what is the plan to assist the 75% to bring in the money needed to finance everything?
That's a genuine question as it really will have been that group of Londoners who will be desperately needed to rebuild, not an old man from Hartlepool who was sitting all last week on his sofa and will be sitting all next week on his sofa.
Unless, those people can suddenly give themselves an education and change their entire work ethic to become economic migrants then the 75% in London are going to need to keep bringing in immigrants to cover all the support work needed.
I voted Leave but because I vehemently disagreed with two things that I felt were extremely dangerous to my children's future. The first being the aggressive expansionist policy of the EU. Such actions only lead to war and the EU is out of control in that regard. The second the open borders to unskilled labour meant no one on the bottom rung of society will ever see any wage inflation and the rapid expansion of the EU wealth divide had to be halted. Excessive wealth divides cause war and oppression.
However, it will definitely mean less money for me and more work but it is something I feel strongly enough about to commit to. Ideally, is taking a third of the spending power away from the EU machine would lead to an EU revolution that over throws the expansionist, exploitative elite and a restructure to the original intent of a combine Europe but that may not happen and that means that all those people from the regions who voted for a better Britain and an end to immigration need to change their whole lifestyle if they want to achieve that and get on their bikes because London is not likely to be moving employment out and if those from the regions still refuse to get on their bikes then Lindon will continue to employ its support labour from places where people are willing to get on their plane.
Camlet said:
I hate the EU Commission. An undemocratic bunch of political oligarchs. Arrogant, dangerous, not elected, powerful. This alone was a good reason to Brexit.
But Brexit is too extreme, it's remarkably dangerous in itself. To us, Europe and beyond.
Here's the thing, until the UK government exercises article 50, the referendum is technically for information only.
Sure, no UK government would ignore the vote but the EU could use the time to introduce new terms. The EU with its bunch of pompous bulls
t Commission Oligarchs can see Hell is being unleashed. I voted Remain because the UK will be sucked into the malestrom. The EU can see the risk of total collapse is real.
New terms to massively reform the bloated Commission and return democracy to the markets, to de-politicize the EU might pull everyone back from the brink. This would allow the UK government to re-submit to the UK population via a second referendum.
And the vote would be positive to Remain. The UK would have helped re-shaped Europe for the better. It would avert disaster.
But what did I hear yesterday from the unelected Oligarchs in Brussels. Get the UK out asap.
Junkers said no to any reform. The reporters were silent. The only people clapping were Junkers fellow civil servants. Arrogance, self-interest, fking IDIOTS.
Brexit is going to screw everything. There is a window of hope, sure, it's a pipe dream but the window is there even if it's tiny.
The EU Commission is still not listening. Madness, utter madness. And UK Brexit voters don't even know the hell they've unleashed. Madness, utter madness.
I wish someone would stand up and use the window before article 50 is served no matter how small, how fanciful the window is. This is fking nuts.
Agree entirely. There is until October for the EU to rise up and eliminate the extremists at their helm and join Britain in making the EU about the people of Europe as intended or remain on their distorted path to destruction or for the Conservatives to elect a Remain leader who chooses not to invoke the article. But Brexit is too extreme, it's remarkably dangerous in itself. To us, Europe and beyond.
Here's the thing, until the UK government exercises article 50, the referendum is technically for information only.
Sure, no UK government would ignore the vote but the EU could use the time to introduce new terms. The EU with its bunch of pompous bulls
t Commission Oligarchs can see Hell is being unleashed. I voted Remain because the UK will be sucked into the malestrom. The EU can see the risk of total collapse is real. New terms to massively reform the bloated Commission and return democracy to the markets, to de-politicize the EU might pull everyone back from the brink. This would allow the UK government to re-submit to the UK population via a second referendum.
And the vote would be positive to Remain. The UK would have helped re-shaped Europe for the better. It would avert disaster.
But what did I hear yesterday from the unelected Oligarchs in Brussels. Get the UK out asap.
Junkers said no to any reform. The reporters were silent. The only people clapping were Junkers fellow civil servants. Arrogance, self-interest, f
king IDIOTS.Brexit is going to screw everything. There is a window of hope, sure, it's a pipe dream but the window is there even if it's tiny.
The EU Commission is still not listening. Madness, utter madness. And UK Brexit voters don't even know the hell they've unleashed. Madness, utter madness.
I wish someone would stand up and use the window before article 50 is served no matter how small, how fanciful the window is. This is f
king nuts. Edited by Camlet on Saturday 25th June 07:49
Outside of this alternatives all of us must embrace the new Britain outside of the EU and everyone will have to work harder than they are used to and make those around them work harder if we are to achieve what we are capable of.
Anglade said:
DonkeyApple said:
It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over
Exactly.Look at the areas that voted massively for Brexit - all Labour's traditional heartlands.
Where were the strong Labour voices warning about the ramifications?
Where in the f*ck was Corbyn?
eccles said:
Anglade said:
DonkeyApple said:
It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over
Exactly.Look at the areas that voted massively for Brexit - all Labour's traditional heartlands.
Where were the strong Labour voices warning about the ramifications?
Where in the f*ck was Corbyn?
I cannot see the Conservatives not implementing Article 50, though Dave has tried to delay it. Britain must go it alone.
I also don't see the EU reforming. Even this will not be a big enough setback - those in control are completely protected from the consequences of their actions. They will continue in their self destruction, via expansion and the Euro, until something bigger stops them.
I also don't see the EU reforming. Even this will not be a big enough setback - those in control are completely protected from the consequences of their actions. They will continue in their self destruction, via expansion and the Euro, until something bigger stops them.
sanf said:
A genuine question and hopefully someone on PH will have the knowledge on this.
The current trade deficit with then EU is £23.9bn, so we buy more than we sell. If the EU decides that the trade deal with the UK will be based on 10% tariffs. You would have to hope the UK government with make these reciprocal.
If that was the case - does that make the deficit £23.9bn + 10% on anything coming into the UK?
If so what would stop the government using the 10% income to rebate all the companies exporting from the UK, thus giving them a net cost of £0, while accessing the single market?
Businesses care about profit, so if access to the market is maintained with no extra cost will that have an impact?
I appreciate this may have over-simplified the issue slightly, but is the above possible? The government would be collecting our tariffs, and being outside the EU, could they spend this however they saw fit?
I don't see why not but it may not help.The current trade deficit with then EU is £23.9bn, so we buy more than we sell. If the EU decides that the trade deal with the UK will be based on 10% tariffs. You would have to hope the UK government with make these reciprocal.
If that was the case - does that make the deficit £23.9bn + 10% on anything coming into the UK?
If so what would stop the government using the 10% income to rebate all the companies exporting from the UK, thus giving them a net cost of £0, while accessing the single market?
Businesses care about profit, so if access to the market is maintained with no extra cost will that have an impact?
I appreciate this may have over-simplified the issue slightly, but is the above possible? The government would be collecting our tariffs, and being outside the EU, could they spend this however they saw fit?
Say it costs a carmaker 15k to build a car in the UK and 10k of that is made up of parts imported from the EU. If the UK applied a 15% tariff (in response to a 15% tariff applied by the EU) then the car would cost 10% more to make (1.5k being 15% of the 10k).
The UK could choose to either waive the tariff, or give it back to the carmaker. If they did that the car would still be 15% more expensive when it was imported to the EU because of their tariff. The only way for the UK to offset that would be to give additional support by eating in to the money saved by not being in the EU.
Same would go for a carmaker that sourced 100% of the parts from the UK (although I doubt that is possible). They wouldn't be impacted by any UK import tariff but would be affected by an EU tariff. Any help would have to come from the money saved by being out of the EU.
Maybe. I'm just hypothesising tbh.
As for the other arguments about not wanting to have ruled forced on them by faceless EU rule makers, guess what, there will always be faceless rule makers, and there will always be rules you don't like.
Alucidnation said:
I thought i read somewhere that he said it 'could' go to the NHS?
Well promises either way are for nought aren't they, they are not within his power. I would say it talks more to his character or lack of it. Ironic given one of the claimed biggest causes of discontent is a distrust of political promises.grumbledoak said:
How did you come to believe that Nigel made "that commitment". He is not an MP. He could not make any such commitment. He wasn't even a part of the Vote Leave campaign.
I never believed it, but many people seem to.Camlet said:
I hate the EU Commission. An undemocratic bunch of political oligarchs. Arrogant, dangerous, not elected, powerful. This alone was a good reason to Brexit.
But Brexit is too extreme, it's remarkably dangerous in itself. To us, Europe and beyond.
Here's the thing, until the UK government exercises article 50, the referendum is technically for information only.
Sure, no UK government would ignore the vote but the EU could use the time to introduce new terms. The EU with its bunch of pompous bullst Commission Oligarchs can see Hell is being unleashed. I voted Remain because the UK will be sucked into the malestrom. The EU can see the risk of total collapse is real.
New terms to massively reform the bloated Commission and return democracy to the markets, to de-politicize the EU might pull everyone back from the brink. This would allow the UK government to re-submit to the UK population via a second referendum.
And the vote would be positive to Remain. The UK would have helped re-shaped Europe for the better. It would avert disaster.
But what did I hear yesterday from the unelected Oligarchs in Brussels. Get the UK out asap.
Junkers said no to any reform. The reporters were silent. The only people clapping were Junkers fellow civil servants. Arrogance, self-interest, fking IDIOTS.
Brexit is going to screw everything. There is a window of hope, sure, it's a pipe dream but the window is there even if it's tiny.
The EU Commission is still not listening. Madness, utter madness. And UK Brexit voters don't even know the hell they've unleashed. Madness, utter madness.
I wish someone would stand up and use the window before article 50 is served no matter how small, how fanciful the window is. This is fking nuts.
Agreed entirely.But Brexit is too extreme, it's remarkably dangerous in itself. To us, Europe and beyond.
Here's the thing, until the UK government exercises article 50, the referendum is technically for information only.
Sure, no UK government would ignore the vote but the EU could use the time to introduce new terms. The EU with its bunch of pompous bulls
t Commission Oligarchs can see Hell is being unleashed. I voted Remain because the UK will be sucked into the malestrom. The EU can see the risk of total collapse is real. New terms to massively reform the bloated Commission and return democracy to the markets, to de-politicize the EU might pull everyone back from the brink. This would allow the UK government to re-submit to the UK population via a second referendum.
And the vote would be positive to Remain. The UK would have helped re-shaped Europe for the better. It would avert disaster.
But what did I hear yesterday from the unelected Oligarchs in Brussels. Get the UK out asap.
Junkers said no to any reform. The reporters were silent. The only people clapping were Junkers fellow civil servants. Arrogance, self-interest, f
king IDIOTS.Brexit is going to screw everything. There is a window of hope, sure, it's a pipe dream but the window is there even if it's tiny.
The EU Commission is still not listening. Madness, utter madness. And UK Brexit voters don't even know the hell they've unleashed. Madness, utter madness.
I wish someone would stand up and use the window before article 50 is served no matter how small, how fanciful the window is. This is f
king nuts. Edited by Camlet on Saturday 25th June 07:49
Friday was not a true indication of where this will all settle out. We have two years after article 50 in invoked.
At present nothing has really changed yet the markets reacted negatively.
I think we can expect to much more negativity in the markets once article 50 is invoked and that small window is nailed shut. I would expect the true impact won't be known until article 50 is concluded 2 years later and window gets plastered over. That's the point at which we truly do leave the EU.
In the intervening years it will be interesting to see how much foreign investment the UK gets. That will indicate if the lights go out when the window is plastered over or not.
Edited by lostkiwi on Saturday 25th June 12:21
grumbledoak said:
I cannot see the Conservatives not implementing Article 50, though Dave has tried to delay it. Britain must go it alone.
I also don't see the EU reforming. Even this will not be a big enough setback - those in control are completely protected from the consequences of their actions. They will continue in their self destruction, via expansion and the Euro, until something bigger stops them.
I think you are right. I also don't see the EU reforming. Even this will not be a big enough setback - those in control are completely protected from the consequences of their actions. They will continue in their self destruction, via expansion and the Euro, until something bigger stops them.
Now, given that those who voted Remain were voting for the status quo so if they had won would not have needed to do or change anything but just carried on as before but those voting Leave were committing to massive change and huge work and evolution, what is the plan of everyone who voted to Leave? What is each one planning to do to make their change work?
Are they planning to suddenly stop being old, stop being semi skilled, stop being angry, stop fighting, stop sitting around doing nothing positive? Or are they actually expecting the 75% of Londoners who voted to Remain to do it all for them while they carry on sitting on a bench in a decrepit town centre complaining about the immigrants etc?
I don't mean to deride my fellow Leave voters but the majority do appear to be people who have lived their lives having everyone else wipe their arse so how are they suddenly going to rise up and be dynamic and make Britain great again?
Anglade said:
DonkeyApple said:
It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over
Exactly.Look at the areas that voted massively for Brexit - all Labour's traditional heartlands.
Where were the strong Labour voices warning about the ramifications?
Where in the f*ck was Corbyn?
[/quote]
Interesting that they've already withdrawn one of the key items that won them the vote.
I've also read that the French have said they are going to push the border checks done in Calais back across the channel. So essentially the migrant camp is going to move to the UK. I bet all the south coasters who voted Out because of immigration scare stories will love that!
[/quote]
Bulls
t. The only person demanding that is the Mayor of Calais, and she's been demanding that for the last 2 years that I know of, saying that the jungle is an "English problem"DonkeyApple said:
I have to admit that this is an element of the Brexit vote that I cannot get my head around as they've almost certainly slit their own throats by voting for even more austerity and fewer enforced benefits from the EU. It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over but then these people have been consistently lied to by their leaders that the EU is to blame for all their woes and consistently stabbed in the back by successive Governments, none more so than Labour.
Unless they are suddenly willing to do the jobs that immigrants are brought in for (which they won't be) or a Govt suddenly shifts employment to the North (which it won't) then they have bafflingly voted for more misery in many regards. They only thing that could benefit them is if we have a proper correction in the value of resi property along with laws to prevent investment capital from snapping up all the assets (which won't happen).
I agree with this.Unless they are suddenly willing to do the jobs that immigrants are brought in for (which they won't be) or a Govt suddenly shifts employment to the North (which it won't) then they have bafflingly voted for more misery in many regards. They only thing that could benefit them is if we have a proper correction in the value of resi property along with laws to prevent investment capital from snapping up all the assets (which won't happen).
I simply think people dont understand. People now seem surprised that Cameron resigned, are you friggin kidding me? Of course he stood down. People wondering who will be the next pm? It will clearly be Boris, these people have created this situation by a lack of understanding of the issue, I think Labour hugely responsible for not rallying and mobilising their traditional voting base.
It is already starting -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
We are left with a divided nation, weak pound, lower credit waiting, falling GDP, Boris as PM, could easily have a debt crisis....i could go on.
How exactly are all you people that voted for this going to be better? And this is just the financial and economic focus of the situation, never mind the moral and social world view that we have failed to consider.
Be careful what you wish for.
DonkeyApple said:
I think you are right.
Now, given that those who voted Remain were voting for the status quo so if they had won would not have needed to do or change anything but just carried on as before but those voting Leave were committing to massive change and huge work and evolution, what is the plan of everyone who voted to Leave? What is each one planning to do to make their change work?
Are they planning to suddenly stop being old, stop being semi skilled, stop being angry, stop fighting, stop sitting around doing nothing positive? Or are they actually expecting the 75% of Londoners who voted to Remain to do it all for them while they carry on sitting on a bench in a decrepit town centre complaining about the immigrants etc?
I don't mean to deride my fellow Leave voters but the majority do appear to be people who have lived their lives having everyone else wipe their arse so how are they suddenly going to rise up and be dynamic and make Britain great again?
Well put.Now, given that those who voted Remain were voting for the status quo so if they had won would not have needed to do or change anything but just carried on as before but those voting Leave were committing to massive change and huge work and evolution, what is the plan of everyone who voted to Leave? What is each one planning to do to make their change work?
Are they planning to suddenly stop being old, stop being semi skilled, stop being angry, stop fighting, stop sitting around doing nothing positive? Or are they actually expecting the 75% of Londoners who voted to Remain to do it all for them while they carry on sitting on a bench in a decrepit town centre complaining about the immigrants etc?
I don't mean to deride my fellow Leave voters but the majority do appear to be people who have lived their lives having everyone else wipe their arse so how are they suddenly going to rise up and be dynamic and make Britain great again?
deadslow said:
Anglade said:
DonkeyApple said:
It really is a failure of Labour to get that explanation over
Exactly.Look at the areas that voted massively for Brexit - all Labour's traditional heartlands.
Where were the strong Labour voices warning about the ramifications?
Where in the f*ck was Corbyn?
While those unfit to govern outside of the EU within Labour and the Conservatives will ultimately be removed one big concern is Farridge. He is about to lose his very lucrative job and he won't have any place inside Westminster and his acolytes have no actual plan or ability to drive the country forward and effect the change that is needed. All he can really be going forward is a thorn in the side of those who will be doing the graft to make the change work for them. Unless he and his supporters are going to magically educate and motivate themselves to be the important workers structuring all the new deals and mobilising an army of regional sofa surfers to move to the South East to take over the roles of the economic migrants?
gibbon said:
DonkeyApple said:
I think you are right.
Now, given that those who voted Remain were voting for the status quo so if they had won would not have needed to do or change anything but just carried on as before but those voting Leave were committing to massive change and huge work and evolution, what is the plan of everyone who voted to Leave? What is each one planning to do to make their change work?
Are they planning to suddenly stop being old, stop being semi skilled, stop being angry, stop fighting, stop sitting around doing nothing positive? Or are they actually expecting the 75% of Londoners who voted to Remain to do it all for them while they carry on sitting on a bench in a decrepit town centre complaining about the immigrants etc?
I don't mean to deride my fellow Leave voters but the majority do appear to be people who have lived their lives having everyone else wipe their arse so how are they suddenly going to rise up and be dynamic and make Britain great again?
Well put.Now, given that those who voted Remain were voting for the status quo so if they had won would not have needed to do or change anything but just carried on as before but those voting Leave were committing to massive change and huge work and evolution, what is the plan of everyone who voted to Leave? What is each one planning to do to make their change work?
Are they planning to suddenly stop being old, stop being semi skilled, stop being angry, stop fighting, stop sitting around doing nothing positive? Or are they actually expecting the 75% of Londoners who voted to Remain to do it all for them while they carry on sitting on a bench in a decrepit town centre complaining about the immigrants etc?
I don't mean to deride my fellow Leave voters but the majority do appear to be people who have lived their lives having everyone else wipe their arse so how are they suddenly going to rise up and be dynamic and make Britain great again?
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff