Implications of Brexit!

Author
Discussion

zygalski

7,759 posts

145 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Morgan Stanley moving 2000 staff out of London to Frankfurt & Dublin.

Moonhawk

10,730 posts

219 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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I do wonder whether other countries might look to offer referendums - especially where opinion is on the fence.


Steve Campbell

2,136 posts

168 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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If you look at the big "fallers" so far on the stock exchange, banks are obviously there, but so are most of the big house builders ? Why are they so linked to what's going on. I understand the banks.....but not so clear on building trades....

ucb

953 posts

212 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Availabiltiy of cheap manual labour perhaps?
Obviously not today but in the future

4x4Tyke

6,506 posts

132 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Steve Campbell said:
If you look at the big "fallers" so far on the stock exchange, banks are obviously there, but so are most of the big house builders ? Why are they so linked to what's going on. I understand the banks.....but not so clear on building trades....
Pound has weakened, interest rates will rise, monthly mortgage payments will rise, stifling new house purchases.

Tom Logan

3,222 posts

125 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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greymrj said:
That does affect my 'toys'. The S was to be resprayed, that is immediately on hold at least until we can see where we will stand financially (one less job for the garage!). We had planned to take it abroad again but the costs have just risen significantly.
How absolutely awful for you.

giger

732 posts

194 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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4x4Tyke said:
Pound has weakened, interest rates will rise, monthly mortgage payments will rise, stifling new house purchases.
Interest rates may well stay the same or be cut to stem of any inflation.

I can't understand why shares in building firms have fallen, there is still an undersupply of housing and joe public is unlikely to feel any financial changes for a couple of years (bar currency purchases etc).

zbc

853 posts

151 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Steve Campbell said:
If you look at the big "fallers" so far on the stock exchange, banks are obviously there, but so are most of the big house builders ? Why are they so linked to what's going on. I understand the banks.....but not so clear on building trades....
One of the Brexit reasons was the unavailability of housing due to immigration. I imagine the assumption is that immigration will decrease and thus demand for housing which will hit new house prices but will also suggest a lower valuation of the large land banks that many builders carry. A weaker economy generally will also have a similar effect

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

124 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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marcosgt

11,021 posts

176 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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giger said:
4x4Tyke said:
Pound has weakened, interest rates will rise, monthly mortgage payments will rise, stifling new house purchases.
Interest rates may well stay the same or be cut to stem of any inflation.

I can't understand why shares in building firms have fallen, there is still an undersupply of housing and joe public is unlikely to feel any financial changes for a couple of years (bar currency purchases etc).
Instability will make banks more cautious about lending and workers more cautious about taking on long term commitments.

The housing market will slow down unless the markets stabilise and big companies stop offshoring jobs...

M

xjay1337

15,966 posts

118 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Any American or European company upping ship from the UK is doing so not out of any reason of trepidation (ultimately their workers maketh the business, no?) but as a cost saving excersize and they will be using EU referendum result as an excuse - pure and simple.

avinalarf

6,438 posts

142 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Danattheopticians said:
WELL DONE BRITAIN!!! Well done on: Crashing the Stock Market: Ruining Pensions: Crashing the value of our currency to a 31 year low: all overnight! Hopefully the NEW TVR plant in Wales will help restore some of the damage and bring the country back to it's feet!
52% of the country are waking up this morning with a hangover from hell thinking "What the "F" did I do last night?!"
What we did last night was to say "we've had enough ".
Enough of the greed and corruption in the EU.
Enough of the lack of reform of the EU that fails to ensure that greedy multi national companies and banks are properly penalised.
Enough of our own politicians that are donkeys leading lions.
Enough of governments that manage to find the money to shore up the greedy corrupt banks that have stunted economies for the past 8 years.
Enough that laws are never put in place to penalise those individuals that rape their companies pension schemes.
I could go on........

London424

12,829 posts

175 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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zygalski said:
Morgan Stanley moving 2000 staff out of London to Frankfurt & Dublin.
Nope...http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/morgan-stanley-brexit-eu-referendum-jobs-dublin-frankfurt-a7100911.html

LittleEnus

3,226 posts

174 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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greymrj said:
Me, me, hassle, money, me
I think that's what you said.

wst

3,494 posts

161 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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So other than going "argh, enough" what er, was the longer term plan? Leave never said "In 10 days/months/years we'll be working towards this" at any point.

I can get on board with a plan that consists of more than "argh... I'm frustrated!", once I'm shown it. Until then I reserve the right to feel disappointed.

mwstewart

7,614 posts

188 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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marcosgt said:
giger said:
4x4Tyke said:
Pound has weakened, interest rates will rise, monthly mortgage payments will rise, stifling new house purchases.
Interest rates may well stay the same or be cut to stem of any inflation.

I can't understand why shares in building firms have fallen, there is still an undersupply of housing and joe public is unlikely to feel any financial changes for a couple of years (bar currency purchases etc).
Instability will make banks more cautious about lending and workers more cautious about taking on long term commitments.

The housing market will slow down unless the markets stabilise and big companies stop offshoring jobs...

M
There's considerable overseas investment in UK property at the moment and it's not just confined to London. I think there was a recipie for a storm brewing long before the vote result came in.

Moonhawk

10,730 posts

219 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Danattheopticians said:
WELL DONE BRITAIN!!! Well done on: Crashing the Stock Market: Ruining Pensions: Crashing the value of our currency to a 31 year low: all overnight! Hopefully the NEW TVR plant in Wales will help restore some of the damage and bring the country back to it's feet!
52% of the country are waking up this morning with a hangover from hell thinking "What the "F" did I do last night?!"
The stock-market didn't crash - it had it's expected wobble and has trended back up throughout much of the day and has recovered most of what it lost. It's currently sitting around 6180 which is higher than it has been for much of 2016.....so why are pensions ruined?

The pound may have dipped low against the USD (again - an expected wobble and it only stayed there for about 2 hours before bouncing back up a bit). It's been heading down since 2014 so hardly surprising that we would see exchange rates around where we are now. It hit a similar level back in Feb and also in Jan 2009, so it's hardly unprecedented for it to be around the 1.38 level.

GBP against the Euro whilst having a wobble at the start of play - is still ok. Between 2008 and 2013 - GBP bounced around 1.15 and even hit as low as 1.03 during 2008. It's currently sitting at 1.24.

This scare mongering helps no-one. We are where we are and have to make the best of the situation.



ex1

2,729 posts

236 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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giger said:
Interest rates may well stay the same or be cut to stem of any inflation.

I can't understand why shares in building firms have fallen, there is still an undersupply of housing and joe public is unlikely to feel any financial changes for a couple of years (bar currency purchases etc).
Confidence. People hold off from big purchases when confidence is down. Large house builders are like oil tankers in that they cant react very easily. They are up to their nuts building new houses people wont be queuing up to buy while all this is going on.

greymrj

Original Poster:

3,316 posts

204 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Tom Logan said:
How absolutely awful for you.
Not sure if that was intended as a jibe or not! confused But please think about it. I am 69. I worked bloody hard all my life, I was also very active in the community in the UK and with links to Europe. I had planned for my retirement and restored the TVR as a retirement present. Leaving the EU does have forseeable financial implications for me and for others like me. But do not get me wrong, I put that post in the context of owning a TVR, my concerns are far wider; my partners job prospects, my daughters managerial job is on the line, my nephew's firm have advised staff the company will have to stay in the EU area, a friend has just moved from Scotland and is already having to plan to move back in the expectation of independence well within his working life, and so it goes on. Leave didnt think through the consequences.

eldar

21,763 posts

196 months

Friday 24th June 2016
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Moonhawk said:
This scare mongering helps no-one. We are where we are and have to make the best of the situation.
Very true. Problem is we don't understand where we actually are, and how to make the best of it. Far too many uncertainties to allow any degree of sensible forward planning. And, of course, no idea how long that uncertainty will last.

Interesting times.