The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

[wc98]

///ajd said:

Spain would have lots of fun with UK/Gib after a brexit.

You might not care, but it doesn't make it untrue.

absolutely nowhere near as much fun as we could have with them regarding access to fisheries. do not underestimate the importance of this . currently the spanish have basically unhindered access to uk waters and basically fish with impunity regarding the rules. one port in scotland (peterhead from what i remember) has more fisheries inspectors that the whole of spain.

every single conservation measure introduced by the uk government to aid stock recoveries of various species has been applied only to the uk fleet,with even uk registered eu company owned boats able to ignore them. if you think the problems in france at the moment are big, they would be nothing compared to what the people of galicia would do if eu shenanigans threatened their fishing/processing industry.

[b2hbm]

Pan Pan Pan said:

I feel that after 40 years membership we should (ought to) know by now without doubt, that our membership of the EU has been, and is a good thing for the UK, but the reality seems to be, that as a nation we do not.
If it truly was such a good thing for the average UK citizen, we likely would not even be having, or need to have a referendum on whether we stay or leave. This alone sets off alarm bells regarding our continued membership, and study of what the EU has done in relation to the UK, over the years forces to me to vote for out. If I could know for certain that the EU `has' been a good thing for the UK, I would be amongst the first to vote to remain, but I have no such confidence that it has, and the remain campaign has even now not been able to come up with sound/solid reasons why the UK should remain in the EU. certainly no more or less than the leave group has been able to come up with reasons why we should leave, So in my case it must be a personal decision based on what I have learned about the, EU and the way it operates.

^^^ This is the one thing that I've yet to see the Remain side answer successfully - why on earth are we in a situation where there's sufficient groundswell against the EU to force a vote on this ?

I also voted in the 1975 referendum and I was one of the 70-odd % of the country which thought it was a great idea to team up with 8 other countries in what was then the "Common Market". Now older and more cynical I'm voting out. I can't see how something that was sold as a trading deal ended up wanting it's own army. And given the leadership I've seen so far, the last thing I want is someone like that playing with soldiers.

[FiF]

b2hbm said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

I feel that after 40 years membership we should (ought to) know by now without doubt, that our membership of the EU has been, and is a good thing for the UK, but the reality seems to be, that as a nation we do not.
If it truly was such a good thing for the average UK citizen, we likely would not even be having, or need to have a referendum on whether we stay or leave. This alone sets off alarm bells regarding our continued membership, and study of what the EU has done in relation to the UK, over the years forces to me to vote for out. If I could know for certain that the EU `has' been a good thing for the UK, I would be amongst the first to vote to remain, but I have no such confidence that it has, and the remain campaign has even now not been able to come up with sound/solid reasons why the UK should remain in the EU. certainly no more or less than the leave group has been able to come up with reasons why we should leave, So in my case it must be a personal decision based on what I have learned about the, EU and the way it operates.

^^^ This is the one thing that I've yet to see the Remain side answer successfully - why on earth are we in a situation where there's sufficient groundswell against the EU to force a vote on this ?

I also voted in the 1975 referendum and I was one of the 70-odd % of the country which thought it was a great idea to team up with 8 other countries in what was then the "Common Market". Now older and more cynical I'm voting out. I can't see how something that was sold as a trading deal ended up wanting it's own army. And given the leadership I've seen so far, the last thing I want is someone like that playing with soldiers.

Quite so, and let's not forget that should there be any plans for an EU military, being generous and putting an element of doubt in there, said plans are being held back so as not to spook the UK electorate. Plans held in secret, with very restricted admittance, no copies allowed, no electronic devices allowed in room. link

Of course we have a veto, claim the Remainders, but not under Enhanced Cooperation we don't, if the Foreign minister decided to apply it. Just needs 9 member states to agree.

[confused_buyer]

I believe, and I'd need to check to be sure, that in the case of an external trade deal the EU negotiates on behalf of all its members and then, once a deal is done, each individual member state signs a treaty with the external body concerned.

The EU, not being a sovereign state, can only sign agreements on behalf of its members so any actual treaty has to be on a bilateral state to state basis.

[s2art]

confused_buyer said:

I believe, and I'd need to check to be sure, that in the case of an external trade deal the EU negotiates on behalf of all its members and then, once a deal is done, each individual member state signs a treaty with the external body concerned.

The EU, not being a sovereign state, can only sign agreements on behalf of its members so any actual treaty has to be on a bilateral state to state basis.

Not quite that simple. See the link in my post above. Remember any bilateral agreement can be cancelled at any time by either party.

[anonymous-user]

s2art said:

cookie118 said:

s2art said:

cookie118 said:

-we'd lose the tariff free access negotiated by the EU to 58 countries

Not true. The agreement would continue unless one side or the other cancels it.

Really? That seems odd as surely the relationship is with the eu and we'd no longer be in the eu.

That 'fact' seems to keep on coming up but I've never seen any evidence or quotes from a reliable source to back it up?

See http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-trade-trea...

Its long.

I've read what I think are the relevant bits of it and it still seems that the default position is that we exit those arrangements unless the other country agrees to continue them. It sees 'no conceivable reason' why they would object to doing so but from what I can tell the arrangements are between the eu and the other nations and upon brexit they will end unless we agree to continue them.

In fact it says that what would happen is the 'rolling over of the terms of the existing EU FTAs into UK FTAs'.
That sounds like a new fta to me?

[gothatway]

///ajd said:

They are not having it both ways.

Just because the EU doesn't want us to leave doesn't mean brexit will be success. That is seriously flawed logic.

That would indeed be flawed logic, but I don't see anyone making that causal link.

///ajd said:

A brexit may encorage other Nationalistic sentiment to rise and break up the EU. This could be a disaster for everyone in the EU.

I'm sure that a successful Brexit would indeed encourage other nations to consider similar initiatives. While break up of the EU (in its current overbearing form) would indeed be problematic, would it really be a disaster for everyone in the EU (other than the ruling elite, of course) ? Consider - if Grexit had been allowed, wouldn't Greece be better off controlling its own destiny, and wouldn't Germany in particular have had to fork out less money ? I am assuming that the Greek debt will never be repaid in full.

I'm pondering why does the EU seem so desperate for the UK to stay despite us being so awkward in so many ways - is it idealism, or just our contribution or perhaps just fear of contagion ?

[0000]

Postal vote arrived.

[turbobloke]

Could this be taken as our daily reminder of Cameron's carefully reasoned and unchanging position on EU membership?

[loafer123]

Trade weighted average MFN tariffs for the EU are 3.6% overall and 2.3% for non-agricultural products.

This is what we revert to if they won't agree a trade deal and frankly these are a rounding error for business.

[///ajd]

loafer123 said:

Trade weighted average MFN tariffs for the EU are 3.6% overall and 2.3% for non-agricultural products.

This is what we revert to if they won't agree a trade deal and frankly these are a rounding error for business.

3.6% on £300Bn of exports to the EU is over £10Bn a year - way more than our total net contribution to the EU.

Total cost of the EU to the UK is just a rounding error then? It certainly appears a tiny amount compared to the trade benefits.

[wc98]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ladbrokes-data-shows...
what's the betting the "bookies are always right" brigade say they must be wrong now

[loafer123]

///ajd said:

loafer123 said:

Trade weighted average MFN tariffs for the EU are 3.6% overall and 2.3% for non-agricultural products.

This is what we revert to if they won't agree a trade deal and frankly these are a rounding error for business.

3.6% on £300Bn of exports to the EU is over £10Bn a year - way more than our total net contribution to the EU.

Total cost of the EU to the UK is just a rounding error then? It certainly appears a tiny amount compared to the trade benefits.

Except that agricultural tariffs are 22.3% which would result in huge reductions in cross border trade improving the market for our farmers and reducing the need for CAP style subsidies.

They will not want this to happen and a deal will be done.

Simply put, our net contribution will pay for the EU tariffs, should they be stupid enough to apply them.

[braddo]

wc98 said:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ladbrokes-data-shows...
what's the betting the "bookies are always right" brigade say they must be wrong now

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/

Currently saying 21% of Brexit.

[confused_buyer]

///ajd said:

3.6% on £300Bn of exports to the EU is over £10Bn a year - way more than our total net contribution to the EU.

Total cost of the EU to the UK is just a rounding error then? It certainly appears a tiny amount compared to the trade benefits.

I'd agree to a certain extent on the latter part - the cost (in terms of direct payments) really isn't a lot.

However, to reduce business risks of a few percentage points on costs of export either way you could argue joining the euro and removing currency risk is probably of more benefit to trade than removing tariffs.

Unknown factors which fluctuate are even worse than fixed known ones.

[Murph7355]

///ajd said:

3.6% on £300Bn of exports to the EU is over £10Bn a year - way more than our total net contribution to the EU.

Total cost of the EU to the UK is just a rounding error then? It certainly appears a tiny amount compared to the trade benefits.

Who pays tariffs?

[Funk]

Great comment in The Washington Post:

said:

The E.U. has a flag no one salutes, an anthem no one sings, a president no one can name, a parliament that no one other than its members wants to have more power (which must be subtracted from national legislatures), a capital of coagulated bureaucracies that no one admires or controls, a currency that presupposes what neither does nor should exist (a European central government administering fiscal policy), and rules of fiscal behavior (limits on debt-to-gross domestic product ratios) that few if any members obey and none have been penalized for ignoring.

Very interesting to hear debate from the other side of the pond as to the ramifications of the UK voting to leave:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/8an-indepe...

[gothatway]

Murph7355 said:

///ajd said:

3.6% on £300Bn of exports to the EU is over £10Bn a year - way more than our total net contribution to the EU.

Total cost of the EU to the UK is just a rounding error then? It certainly appears a tiny amount compared to the trade benefits.

Who pays tariffs?

Looks like ///ajd agrees with Harman - it's the exporter, right ? Oh hang on a mo.

[Tony427]

I was in my sister's pub this evening, a fairly typical small pub in the North West. There were about 15 people around the bar and everyone was for Brexit. The young barman was the only one who hadn't made his mind up which he explained was because he hadn't read enough about the pro's and cons.

Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.

I simply asked

" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"

He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"

"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.

" I think you've made my mind up " he said.


Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?

Cheers,

Tony

[Sam All]

Tony427 said:

I was in my sister's pub this evening, a fairly typical small pub in the North West. There were about 15 people around the bar and everyone was for Brexit. The young barman was the only one who hadn't made his mind up which he explained was because he hadn't read enough about the pro's and cons.

Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.

I simply asked

" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"

He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"

"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.

" I think you've made my mind up " he said.


Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?

Cheers,

Tony

Yes that does seem to elicit that response.

And what is the calibre of countries that have joined recently and are keen to join? Quality, and not quantity please.