The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2
Discussion
Tony427 said:
I was in my sister's pub this evening, a fairly typical small pub in the North West. There were about 15 people around the bar and everyone was for Brexit. The young barman was the only one who hadn't made his mind up which he explained was because he hadn't read enough about the pro's and cons.
Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
This is how I've been putting it to people for a good couple of months now. It changed my liberal loony best friend from a remainer to a definite outer. Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
Tony427 said:
I was in my sister's pub this evening, a fairly typical small pub in the North West. There were about 15 people around the bar and everyone was for Brexit. The young barman was the only one who hadn't made his mind up which he explained was because he hadn't read enough about the pro's and cons.
Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
Again, Tony. Missing the point.Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
We are where we are as a result of being members of the EU. The attitudes of the man in the pub might be very different had our economy been struggling since the mid 1990's.
The economists think we're better off in:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/ec...
Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income.
Nine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit, according to the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted.
zygalski said:
Tony427 said:
I was in my sister's pub this evening, a fairly typical small pub in the North West. There were about 15 people around the bar and everyone was for Brexit. The young barman was the only one who hadn't made his mind up which he explained was because he hadn't read enough about the pro's and cons.
Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
Again, Tony. Missing the point.Earlier on in the evening I had put forward the question that seemed to distill the Remain or Exit quandry into a single concept and someone suggested I put the question to him.
I simply asked
" If the UK was not a member of the EU today, would you vote to join?"
He thought for a few seconds and said " No, not with all the problems in the EU it would be totally daft to join"
"So why should you want to remain a member of a club you don't want to join." I continued.
" I think you've made my mind up " he said.
Who in their right mind would say yes, and how would they justify their choice?
Cheers,
Tony
We are where we are as a result of being members of the EU. The attitudes of the man in the pub might be very different had our economy been struggling since the mid 1990's.
The economists think we're better off in:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/ec...
Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income.
Nine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit, according to the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted.
Anyway, former HSBC chief has just outlined seven reasons we'd be better off outside the EU:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3613669/Th...
... enable Britain to regain power over taxation, ditch costly Brussels red tape and shelter the Square Mile from the fallout of a future eurozone crisis.
...And he warned that the proposed EU ‘financial transaction tax’ on banks could have an impact on Britain even if – as George Osborne has promised – we do not take part in it.
...Remaining could mean multi-billion-pound tax raids on the UK, less influence on international bodies and a reduced chance to promote the City as an international financial centre, his report warned.
In his report, written with independent risk consultant Peter Udale,
‘Over the course of many years, the UK Government has failed to stop damaging EU financial sector regulation, has ceded control to the eurozone and has suffered an erosion of its sovereign powers in areas such as taxation.
Our conclusion is that a vote to leave would allow the UK to take back control over the City, would reduce the risk of future euro-contagion to the UK financial services sector and the wider UK economy, would return primacy over areas such as taxation to the UK and, over the long term, would make the City a more competitive, prosperous global financial centre.’
Among their seven reasons for leaving, the authors highlighted the risk that Britain could be outvoted by the eurozone.
Quitting the EU, they said, means empowering the Bank of England rather than having ‘inflexible, rule-based regulation from Brussels’, better regulation of our financial sector and less exposure to a future eurozone crisis.
‘Unlike the French, who have a veto over EU legislation relating to agriculture, the UK has no such control over a key part of its economy – financial services,’ said the report.
It also claimed the proposed EU ‘financial transaction tax’ on banks could cost UK taxpayers an extra £4billion a year in higher interest rates. Even if we do not sign up to it, Brussels could still force us to collect taxes under what is called ‘EU enhanced co-operation’.
We know already that propaganda works to a degree.
None of the respondents know what GDP will do next year, whether the vote is In or Out.
If the EZ goes titsup all bets are off and if it doesn't the position changes from nobody knows to nobody knows.
As to what GDP will be in the more distant future, it's time for propagandised people to think of a result to suit their predisposition.
In addition, what the poll doesn't show is whether those replying have placed fairytales about GDP as their priority for decision-making regarding Leave or Remain.
Any interpretation of the survey which claims an implication for the vote is making that assumption.
As to running with the 600 that's cool unless they're heading for the cliff edge.
None of the respondents know what GDP will do next year, whether the vote is In or Out.
If the EZ goes titsup all bets are off and if it doesn't the position changes from nobody knows to nobody knows.
As to what GDP will be in the more distant future, it's time for propagandised people to think of a result to suit their predisposition.
In addition, what the poll doesn't show is whether those replying have placed fairytales about GDP as their priority for decision-making regarding Leave or Remain.
Any interpretation of the survey which claims an implication for the vote is making that assumption.
As to running with the 600 that's cool unless they're heading for the cliff edge.
If we are working to a principle of Informed Consent - then surely the Remain side should be pointing out that a vote for them is a vote for Economic & Monetary Union by 2025 for countries in terms EZ which clearly requires political union to achieve being a single voice on the global stage.
Hysterical? No.
Just what the 5 EU Presidents' report says from less than a year ago.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5240_en...
Hysterical? No.
Just what the 5 EU Presidents' report says from less than a year ago.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5240_en...
zygalski said:
But it does show a wide consensus regarding the economic implications of Brexit among economists.
I put more faith in them in judging the economic costs/benefits than the man in the pub.
Sure there can be comfort to be had with large numbers of people around you who think the same way, but it doesn't mean the herd is right (or wrong).I put more faith in them in judging the economic costs/benefits than the man in the pub.
zygalski said:
That prediction could both be accurate and also have no impact on GDP per head.Adding 250K or so workers a year of course increases real GDP, other things remaining equal. Prosperity depends on increasing the amount going to the existing population.
Another good article about the diminishing role of the EU in global trade:
http://www.adamsmith.org/stuck-in-the-middle-with-...
http://www.adamsmith.org/stuck-in-the-middle-with-...
zygalski said:
Again, Tony. Missing the point.
We are where we are as a result of being members of the EU. The attitudes of the man in the pub might be very different had our economy been struggling since the mid 1990's.
The economists think we're better off in:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/ec...
Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income.
Umm....hang on here. The UK economy was collapsing in the early 90's and why? Because the Government had followed the advice of all the economists who told them we'd be better off as a ERM member.We are where we are as a result of being members of the EU. The attitudes of the man in the pub might be very different had our economy been struggling since the mid 1990's.
The economists think we're better off in:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/ec...
Poll shows 88% of 600 experts fear long-term fall in GDP if UK leaves single market, and 82% are alarmed over impact on household income.
The early 90's are not a good era to mention in the same sentence as economists if you are promoting their current views!
zygalski said:
But it does show a wide consensus regarding the economic implications of Brexit among economists.
I put more faith in them in judging the economic costs/benefits than the man in the pub.
The problem is that on the two huge economic decisions we have had to make as a nation in the last 30 years with regard to Europe the man in the pub turned out to be right and the economists wrong. I put more faith in them in judging the economic costs/benefits than the man in the pub.
zygalski said:
2 vs 600. Seriously?
I'll back the 600 thanks.
One of the problem with economists is they are not that good at predicting the future. Especially when the sample being used to base these predictions on is 0.I'll back the 600 thanks.
I've sat through many presentations from some very, very good economists, since about 2001. None of them predicted the economic crash 2008. Post 2008 all have been very good at saying why it happened, analysing what has happened since (in details), and then some have done a very small piece on where they think the economy is going - most have again been off the mark. At the end of each presentation those have then put huge caveats on what they have said, basically saying anything could happen.
The economic argument on both sides is totally flawed due to their being no precedent - this is a totally unique situation, a large economy leaving a free trade area. The sample is zero. If you were to ask a company to build a financial services model and they used a sample of zero there is no way anyone would accept it as creditable. It should be recognised for what it is - best guess scenario's from both sides.
FiF said:
And of course that question includes the criteria of "leaves the single market" which as often mentioned rigs the table in the direction of getting the answer you want. Thus it's not as meaningful and killer argument that people think it is. Sorry.
Right.....So we're definately staying in the single market are we?
This is NOT what the official leave campaign is saying at all - nor will it change the four freedoms in any way.
So, no change to immigration, in the single market, less influence but maybe pay a bit less. That's Norway.
Its either that or you are proposing some cake and eat it Norway option, for free, with no immigration, cos we're Great Britain. The Davies QT flag waving rule britannia proposal.
///ajd said:
FiF said:
And of course that question includes the criteria of "leaves the single market" which as often mentioned rigs the table in the direction of getting the answer you want. Thus it's not as meaningful and killer argument that people think it is. Sorry.
Right.....So we're definately staying in the single market are we?
This is NOT what the official leave campaign is saying at all - nor will it change the four freedoms in any way.
So, no change to immigration, in the single market, less influence but maybe pay a bit less. That's Norway.
Its either that or you are proposing some cake and eat it Norway option, for free, with no immigration, cos we're Great Britain. The Davies QT flag waving rule britannia proposal.
No one would design a new car and say OK we're making a new car, it's going to be a Vauxhall Corsa.
It's stupid and insulting to the electorate for the remain side failing to accept that the conversation is more complicated than simply who will you copy.
Edited by John145 on Sunday 29th May 10:02
///ajd said:
Right.....
So we're definately staying in the single market are we?
This is NOT what the official leave campaign is saying at all - nor will it change the four freedoms in any way.
So, no change to immigration, in the single market, less influence but maybe pay a bit less. That's Norway.
For me, and I appreciate that most in the Brexit camp will not agree, that would be ideal. I would prefer to remain in the single market, accept that will mean paying some money, some compromises and the free movement of people.So we're definately staying in the single market are we?
This is NOT what the official leave campaign is saying at all - nor will it change the four freedoms in any way.
So, no change to immigration, in the single market, less influence but maybe pay a bit less. That's Norway.
It is the long term political union crap I am sure the UK will get caught up in I would like to be out of. If CMD had actually managed to come up with something which excluded us from all of that and maintained full membership of the single market I would enthusiastically be voting "in". As he did no such thing I am instead veering out.
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