The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

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Discussion

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
jjlynn27 said:
Esseesse said:
jjlynn27 said:
Let me get this straight; At the moment we have, democratically elected, but in from brexiter position, ineffective opposition. If we vote leave, that same opposition will become effective and be there to stop Dave from giving visas to Turks? Is that what you are saying?
I think our membership of the EU is arguably a good reason for the decline in our domestic politics where the main parties broadly agree on everything.
What decline? Main parties are democratically elected. I don't see the decline at all. Certainly, at least to me, it seems that it's much better now than when Blair's lot were in power. Again, relevance to Turkey/veto?
Relevance to Turkey: See previous replies. If you can't understand my point (happy to disagree) then I don't know what you're doing here.

Decline: I'm not talking Blair -> Now, more like since WW2. Look at the decline in the level of debate, differences in positions, and the decline in voter turnout for a start.
I did read your previous replies. They make very little sense. Since WW2?

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Pan Pan Pan said:
Zod said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
zygalski said:
Jon321 said:
Im losing track of all the badness that will happen to us post June 23rd if we leave. Holidays going up in price I see now has been added to the extensive list.

At the rate the doom and gloom has been put out there by Dave and Co I'm going to struggle to get up in the morning soon. I've a birthday in June, thankfully pre referendum, I suspect post Brexit birthdays will also reduce or perhaps be things we can't celebrate anymore or something.

Is the Black Death coming back if we leave? I've lost where we're up to now with it all.
That's nothing.
If we stay you'll hardly be able to spot a white face in a crowd in 10 years time. English will become the second language & we'll all be governed by Sharia Law. rolleyes
Why wait 10 years? This has already happened in East London where indigenous white people are in the minority, and to quote a resident, they feel like foreigners in their own land.
BBC 1. program on tonight at 10.45 is covering this, Could be interesting?
Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

It's funny, by the way, that you are talking about Asian immigration in a thread about the EU.
How do you know the program is about Asian immigration, it has not even been shown yet?
Did you assume non whites are likely to be Asian?
Have you looked at population statistics for East London boroughs? Have you ever been to East London?

What a bizarre question!

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

211 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

So you saw no Muslims in a pub?

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
Zod said:
Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

So you saw no Muslims in a pub?
sonar

Mrs TB visited a doctor's surgery last week to get a repeat prescription, she reckoned most of the people she saw in the waiting area looked a bit sickly. Whoda thunkit.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
Zod said:
Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

So you saw no Muslims in a pub?
the point being that, contrary to the hysteria, Brick Lane is not remotely monocultural.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
FiF said:
Zod said:
FiF said:
fblm said:
FiF said:
Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?
Ashcroft tweeted it today.
Oh yes and Ashcroft did such a good job last year, didn't he? Just wanting a result and writing down some figures that show the result you want is convincing only to those who like the result it shows.
In case you missed it, whatever the source of the calculation, already said it's wrong imo. HTH.

But correct, writing down some figures, with a few dodgy nested assumptions and methodological inaccuracies just for good measure, that end up showing the result you want is indeed only convincing to those who like the result it shows. Leave it to others to point out a few obvious examples that have been in the news.
I hadn't seen that when I posted. Odd that Ashcroft retweeted it.

Mr_B

10,480 posts

242 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Mr_B said:
Guess what ? I don't trust politicians. Out of the EU, the government has no pressure to accept an open door to Turkey or even this current deal which we are meant to believe is all about holiday rights for Turks. All that happens is that Turkey becomes just another one of a hundred or so that we may deal with and which people can apply to come and emigrate from.

Yes, a PM in a post-EU world could also open up the door to Turkey or even Somalia and Nigeria , or just give them all visa free travel to the UK. The chances of him doing so are nil, because the public wouldn't accept it and he'd commit electoral suicide.
When inside an EU that wants Turkey to join and with a rabidly pro Turkey PM, that chance rises hugely.
So outside EU, decision to allow free access to Turks is political suicide. But chances of that same political suicide are 'rising hugely' inside EU? Because of 'rabidly' pro Turkey PM.

Mr_B said:
The EU is already desperate for a deal to try and clear up their migrant mess and dealing with a corrupt , human rights abusing , leaky ISIS border/buying their oil government of Turkey. Who knows what kinda deal they'll do in the future with Turkey.
It's very simple, without the EU trying to force the PM and country in the direction they want, you get a PM more in tune with what the country wants.
I understand that it's hard for you to accept that country didn't want Farage, not as a PM, but even as an MP. Cameron is fairly elected and can be voted out. 'Who know what kind of deal...' is meaningless drivel.

Mr_B said:
I see you edited you other post regarding Penny Mordaunt after I'd replied to it. Your obsession with it and absolute demand that it is 100% clear and undeniable , says much about how blinkered you are in your rabidly pro EU stance. You might have noted I said it could be one way or the other, but that I believed it wasn't clear and she made a total mess of it.
You use 'rabidly' a lot. I edit posts mostly to fix abysmal Engrish. If I change the meaning of the post I do add ETA: explanation. In any case time of your reply is after the time of my edit so not sure how it's relevant.

You are desperately trying to construct scenario in which you'd be less obviously wrong.

Still fun to read. Enjoy your shopping.

smile


ETF : quoting (just in case)

Edited by jjlynn27 on Tuesday 24th May 10:16
I see you still can't actually comment on the things you pick an argument on. The again, you did the same when you declared Germany unanimously in favour of taking millions of migrants because you read 4 German PH peeps telling you the early wave of immigration was greeted positively.
People might be able to get a flavour of your level just seeing what you want to see from this alone.

It's no too hard to understand. Outside of the EU, our Turkey loving PM can just do a trade deal and Turks can apply to come and live and work here just the same as a hundred plus other countries can.
Inside the EU, our Turkey loving PM and his Turkey loving mates in the EU have a far higher chance of accepting them into the EU with possibly no restrictions. The EU is already happy to do a deal in panic to shove huge sums of money their way and possibly grant visa free access to the Euro zone, apparently to appease all those Turks desperate to holiday in the EU. Guess with net contributor EU country gets to fund that desperate EU bribe to Turkey. Oh yeah, its us.

I'm afraid within the EU it's far easier to push decisions on a dumb public by getting your government department to give a bullst assessment of why its nothing to worry about. In 2004 the same thing happened by letting half of eastern Europe have unrestricted access to the UK on a claim that only 13K a year will come. Had we been out of the EU, who would be demanding total unrestricted access otherwise ? You may look around and wonder why the government isn't calling for total unrestricted access for half of Africa. Why aren't they doing that ?

You edited your post from saying 'For the purpose of this discussion, it's irrelevant if Dave 'turns again' to include a whole lot more. I replied and quoted just this bit in my reply. Later on you whole a massive amount more. You couldn't even get this meaningless bit correct and wrote something about the need to correct your English. You don't even have a level of honesty when it comes to yourself, let alone debating the politics of scummy politicians and the EU.



FiF

43,962 posts

250 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
FiF said:
Zod said:
FiF said:
fblm said:
FiF said:
Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?
Ashcroft tweeted it today.
Oh yes and Ashcroft did such a good job last year, didn't he? Just wanting a result and writing down some figures that show the result you want is convincing only to those who like the result it shows.
In case you missed it, whatever the source of the calculation, already said it's wrong imo. HTH.

But correct, writing down some figures, with a few dodgy nested assumptions and methodological inaccuracies just for good measure, that end up showing the result you want is indeed only convincing to those who like the result it shows. Leave it to others to point out a few obvious examples that have been in the news.
I hadn't seen that when I posted. Odd that Ashcroft retweeted it.
Dunno, unless as someone else pointed out it's just in a bit of fun.

Thing is though, about the only thing one can pick fault with, apart from the issue I raised earlier, is the In/Out ratio split for each category. Even then one is simply tatting around the edges in order to get the result desired, as we've both observed above.

Anyway how are you? Sorry got a bit tetchy with you the other day, leg hurting like buggery, smashed knee joint, laid up, gone all stir crazy.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
FiF said:
Dunno, unless as someone else pointed out it's just in a bit of fun.

Thing is though, about the only thing one can pick fault with, apart from the issue I raised earlier, is the In/Out ratio split for each category. Even then one is simply tatting around the edges in order to get the result desired, as we've both observed above.

Anyway how are you? Sorry got a bit tetchy with you the other day, leg hurting like buggery, smashed knee joint, laid up, gone all stir crazy.
I'm fine, thanks. Good of you to extend the olive branch. I hope your knee gets sorted quickly.

Norfolkit

2,394 posts

189 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
Norfolkit said:
I'd be frankly astonished if most Conservative voters weren't way more Brexitish than the parliamentary party, which is why Cameron is going to have one seriously divided party after the referendum regardless of the result. .
I'm not at all convinced that Conservative voters are more Brexitish - in fact the Remain campaign on economics is really hitting home with them (which is cleverly targeted) and suspect the majority will vote for in.

I think Conservative voters who are activists, politically engaged or follow politics closely may well be Bexitish but the majority of voters are not of this type and don't follow that closely apart from every 5 years or on a major issue like this.

It is the most common mistake in politics for those actively interested to think others think the same as they do.
Maybe you're right but that's certainly not my personal experience. Maybe Norfolk Tories aren't typical (I'll accept that Norfolk generally is pretty Leaveish) but Cameron's campaign has not played well around here at all, mainly over the renegotiation (I use the term loosely), that really didn't fool anyone.

FiF

43,962 posts

250 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Anyway seeing as nothing better to do, courtesy Roland Smith, aka White Wednesday Adam Smith Institute fellow.

A short 3 minute read. Why vote to Leave? The short version

White Wednesday said:
Because in the event of a Remain vote:

The EU will never listen to us again — we will never again be able to argue credibly for any EU reform. We tried, we even ‘pointed a gun’ at them, we failed, but we chose to carry on anyway. That will have serious repercussions.

There will be no change to immigration into the UK from the EU— now or ever. It will stay literally out of control.

The EU’s push towards creating “a country called Europe” will accelerate. Britain, the awkward partner, will no longer act as a brake on political union.

The EU will feel it has greater authority to stamp on national democracy in pursuit of its goals. We will have accepted rule by unelected officials. There’s no such thing as a qualified remain vote — it’ll be taken by Brussels as a total endorsement.

George Osborne may become prime minister

We will have accepted the notion that living under our own laws (i.e. that thing called democracy) is now a minority viewpoint and over time will become a fringe viewpoint.

Politics in the UK will become ever more irrelevant and will be held in ever more contempt by the people.

“Anti-politics” in the UK will grow. So will reactionary (and very unpleasant) movements across the continent.

Britain will become ever more irrelevant on the world stage as the EU takes over.

The ‘status quo’ (staying where we are now) will have lost. Instead we will remain on a fractious journey towards political union.

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie” — Jean-Claude Juncker. This individual and this mindset will have won.

Those who championed Britain joining the euro will have won. Those who correctly predicted the euro disaster will have lost.

The question of Britain’s membership of the euro will come back into focus: “a logical next step in our membership”.

The EU will dominate the continent of Europe ever more. Non-EU countries like Norway and Switzerland will be bullied into conformity.

Fear will have triumphed over hope.

The essential message of the Remain camp is “Britain is weak and small, it can’t survive, let’s be done with it”. We will have accepted that position.

The banks, big business, Goldman Sachs, the international political quangocrats and the vast majority of Westminster politicians, will have triumphed. So will “New Labour” — Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson.

We will be told that the question of Britain’s EU membership is now settled once and for all.We will never again have the opportunity to leave. Never. Integration will have gone too far. If you thought
disentangling from the EU was difficult now, it’ll only get much worse.

The things that British voters have long complained about will still afflict our country.

A Remain vote is a vote of confidence in the whole rotten political system.

You will have voted for something whose objective (of political union) is rejected even by many/most Remain supporters. Indeed you will have voted for something that the Remain camp admits is rubbish.

And why should you positively vote Leave?

Because you want trade and friendship, but expressly do NOT want political union with 27 other countries.

Because you want to enter exit talks that might actually give us something instead of getting 40 more years of the same.

You will be returning better democratic control over the politics that governs us.

You will break the EU’s anti-democratic strangle-hold over the European continent.

You will confirm that Britain is still a country to be reckoned with.You will be moving Britain back to a normal state of affairs — that of national sovereignty — seen as completely normal everywhere in the world except in the EU.

And if it floats your boat: you will also make Nigel Farage redundant.

confused_buyer

6,610 posts

180 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Norfolkit said:
Maybe you're right but that's certainly not my personal experience. Maybe Norfolk Tories aren't typical (I'll accept that Norfolk generally is pretty Leaveish) but Cameron's campaign has not played well around here at all, mainly over the renegotiation (I use the term loosely), that really didn't fool anyone.
Here in Essex I'd say they split into 2 camps:

Either retired or work locally, generally elderly, generally "pretty well off" and in many respects nothing to lose are for out.

However, younger, often commute into London, have good income but large mortgage, leased car, kids at school have sympathy with out but will vote in if they consider an out vote will have any impact on them financially.

Basically they are saying "I'm no fan of the EU but I don't care about it anywhere near enough to suffer any consequences to myself from leaving".

Cameron & Co's message is really getting through to them even if they don't like Cameron himself.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
Cameron & Co's message is really getting through to them even if they don't like Cameron himself.
ISWYM but it's curious that a group that's likely to be better educated on average are so willing to fall for Cameron's terminological inexactitudes and are unwilling to see the bigger picture beyond short-termisn. This sounds like a case of willingly worn blinkers.

528Sport

1,431 posts

233 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
If we leave the EU (fingers crossed) Will June 23rd be declared Independence Day? Could be a great way to celebrate going forward.






CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

211 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
ISWYM but it's curious that a group that's likely to be better educated on average are so willing to fall for Cameron's terminological inexactitudes and are unwilling to see the bigger picture beyond short-termisn. This sounds like a case of willingly worn blinkers.
I'd argue that the more educated are more used to believing what they are told.

Cobnapint

8,596 posts

150 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
johnxjsc1985 said:
the Telegraph suggesting older Conservative voters will vote "remain" ?. Its not my experience I know about a dozen of these old fogies and they are to a man and woman voting OUT.
Agreed. My retired dad, my two retired neighbours, and a retired guy I drink with twice a week - all out.

turbobloke

103,742 posts

259 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
turbobloke said:
ISWYM but it's curious that a group that's likely to be better educated on average are so willing to fall for Cameron's terminological inexactitudes and are unwilling to see the bigger picture beyond short-termisn. This sounds like a case of willingly worn blinkers.
I'd argue that the more educated are more used to believing what they are told.
Yes ISWYM, depending on what they were taught, where and by whom.

Back when I were a lad and it were all green fields around 'ere, we were taught above all to think critically and independently.

richardxjr

7,561 posts

209 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
Time to hope Leave has something good up it's sleave.

Betfair odds say it's all over already. Then what for the UK?


confused_buyer

6,610 posts

180 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
ISWYM but it's curious that a group that's likely to be better educated on average are so willing to fall for Cameron's terminological inexactitudes and are unwilling to see the bigger picture beyond short-termisn. This sounds like a case of willingly worn blinkers.
I think they know in their hearts it is rubbish but nonetheless if you repeat a message often enough eventually it puts doubts into the back of their minds.

It is classic "Lynton Crosby" style electioneering: keep repeating the same message and when people get into the polling booth if they have that small amount of doubt on their minds their pen will hover over "Leave" and then switch to "Remain" as the safe option. Get enough people to do this and you win.

It really is working and they haven't even started yet. Expect a deluge of further stuff followed by some inevitable damming reports from various international organisations in the few days before the poll.

Unless the Leave side have a rabbit in a hat somewhere (and thus far their campaign has been so bad I actually expect them to get worse) or something happens outside of everyone's control then Remain are really heading for quite a big win I think.

Rick_1138

3,656 posts

177 months

Tuesday 24th May 2016
quotequote all
I'm still on the fence, my mrs is a definate IN.

My main worries are if we vote to stay, France will use this as a perfect reason to exert more power over our decisions, i.e. 'You chose to be in Europe, now suck it up'

We will never be allowed to forget we voted Yes and will become ever increasingly irrelevant, and our rebate will probably disappear too as we will be depended on more and more for cash.

However seeing the party political broadcast last night from the leave group was like something out of starship troopers, i was waiting for "Would you like to know more" pop up, it was graphics showing we give £350m a week to europe (no mention of what we get back at the same time) and arrows showing movement of turks, all a bit dads army graphics. Then a hospital waiting room, showing in and out on each side, apparently, if we are out, it will be like the 50's again, and everyone wil be seen in second and treated and happy.

It was laughable. However the stay in stuff is getting ridiculous now with its doom mongering.

I am torn.