The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

[anonymous-user]

Hosenbugler said:

We'll find out when we leave. There is zero reason as to why trade will not go on UK/rest of Europe as it currently is. They sell us more than we buy from them, they will go to lengths to preserve that.

Meanwhile, we can persue trade on mutual terms with the rest of the world who comprise the vast majority of the world's economies. Freed of the EU straightjacket , and adopting a low tax free trade economy this country would absolutely fly .

But half of that deficit is with two countries-Germany and the Netherlands iirc

We have to get assent from all of the countries, some of which we run a surplus with.

[grumbledoak]

cookie118 said:

But what happens if France want to put a restrictive clause about agricultural funding? Do we just take it or leave it?
Or if the eu holds out for free movement of people and we don't want to-take or leave?

Have you heard of CAP? It would save us a fortune to tell the EU "No thanks" to agricultural "funding".

And I doubt free movement would be a deal breaker - successive governments have wanted and allowed mass immigration from inside and outside the EU.

And all the while, we wouldn't be able to buy German cars...

[Murph7355]

cookie118 said:

Ah yes-the old Germany will get what it wants and that is a free trade deal with the U.K.

But what happens if France want to put a restrictive clause about agricultural funding? Do we just take it or leave it?
Or if the eu holds out for free movement of people and we don't want to-take or leave?

This is played out thousands of times for each free trade deal and is why they take so long-but we'd be done in 2 years because germany says so? I'm not so sure. Surely we'd have free trade deals already in place with whoever Germany wants already then?

The article quoted also says that deals take so long because 28 countries have to agree-this contradicts this view of Germany gets their way all the time!

I wonder how many times this sort of thing has been tested...

As an example, we are the biggest export market for German cars. So that particular litmus test hasn't been fully tested yet as by definition there is only one "biggest". Yes, places like the US are massive markets too, but that's potentially where dealing with another massive trading block doesn't allow quite so much agility.

It will be interesting to see just how far some of the vetos play out, and how well the electorate in the individual member nations receive the deals the EU would do with us on their behalf. I happen to think rather a lot of people across Europe are as sick of the EU as we are and would love for it to revert to a trading block only. But the EU politicos won't let that be tested.

Ref France, btw, the UK is an important automotive sector export market for them too. So I suspect it's less likely for them to kick off on that front (though the French being French you never can tell). I suspect it's more likely that nations like Poland will resist unless free movement of people isn't abandoned, or Greece will resist unless our contributions to the EU funds are continued. But as noted, it will be interesting to see how this would pan out in a test case that I don't believe has ever been tested previously.

Also...there was a woman on Newsnight the other day that suggested the average amount of time taken to negotiate trade deals with the EU is 28mths. That doesn't seem like an inordinate amount of time to me, and not massively beyond the 2yr transition period that I've heard mentioned before...where there's a will etc. And I see both sides (UK and EU) having a lot of will to ensure trade doesn't collapse as it's in both parties' interest.

Unless the EU is less interested in trade and more interested in political objectives/motivations (as I strongly suspect)....in which case ask yourself if remaining is really a good idea.

[anonymous-user]

grumbledoak said:

cookie118 said:

But what happens if France want to put a restrictive clause about agricultural funding? Do we just take it or leave it?
Or if the eu holds out for free movement of people and we don't want to-take or leave?

Have you heard of CAP? It would save us a fortune to tell the EU "No thanks" to agricultural "funding".

And I doubt free movement would be a deal breaker - successive governments have wanted and allowed mass immigration from inside and outside the EU.

And all the while, we wouldn't be able to buy German cars...

Yes-if FRANCE wanted to keep CAP or apply similar to the uk-would we hold out-oh but then we wouldn't be able to buy GERMAN cars. The article states each country has to satisfy its own demands but you say they don't and Germany overrides everything?

[FiF]

Being a bit dim, but I'd like to hear in more detail this argument about France insisting on applying CAP post Brexit. Explanation needed please.

[DMN]

I'd like to hear more about the German car industry single handily delivering us a trade deal. Because it does not sound complete pie in the sky at all.

[Poisson96]

Time to plant my flag I think. Have been undecided but now want to leave. However, a lot in my age group (19-25) want to stay, seemingly fearful of change or scared by the Remain campaign.

[chris watton]

I cannot listen to the news any longer, it is all out 100% propaganda.

Listening to SKY this morning, apparently, if we leave, we 'may' (yeah, always the cop out 'may', 'possibly' or 'could') have to cut the welfare, NHS/public services and tax would go up to boot!

So that's the demographic spectrum dealt with, then, to make us fear that no matter what our position is in the UK, you too 'could/may/possibly' be worse off.

This is 2016, and we're being spoken down to like children with these (ever more) ridiculous false forecasts! It is thoroughly depressing.

[turbobloke]

DMN said:

I'd like to hear more about the German car industry single handily delivering us a trade deal. Because it does not sound complete pie in the sky at all.

Is that in the same vein as those who would like to hear more about this trade deal thing, given that (for example) the EU has never yet at any time in its history had a trade deal with America, yet the EU has been and is involved with the US in hundreds of billions of euros of imports and exports:



Also in view of the fact that trade between the EU and the US, and UK trade with the US – with whom we have no trade deal – has grown, whereas UK trade with the EU, despite the single market, has fallen.

[turbobloke]

chris watton said:

I cannot listen to the news any longer, it is all out 100% propaganda.

Cameron's face and voice are now out of bounds.

[Hosenbugler]

chris watton said:

I cannot listen to the news any longer, it is all out 100% propaganda.
Listening to SKY this morning, apparently, if we leave, we 'may' (yeah, always the cop out 'may', 'possibly' or 'could') have to cut the welfare, NHS/public services and tax would go up to boot!
So that's the demographic spectrum dealt with, then, to make us fear that no matter what our position is in the UK, you too 'could/may/possibly' be worse off.
This is 2016, and we're being spoken down to like children with these (ever more) ridiculous false forecasts! It is thoroughly depressing.

I'm of a similar frame of mind. I'm also deeply suspicious of the DT poll that suggested that the "leavers" of the elder generation are turning away from the leave vote. Polls can be easily skewed to get a result the pollster wants (yes I do have experience) and I would not be surprised if thats what has been done in that case.

That perception is reinforced by what I hear from people . Virtually everyone I have talked to wants out. My daughter and son in law take little or no interest in politics, yet they cannot wait to vote out, and frequently mention the matter. Son in law travels widely in the UK in doing the specialist job he has, and mentions that he sees large numbers of leave posters/signs and very few remain.

About the only claim I have not heard from Remainians is that the Moon may spin out of orbit and the seas dry up if we vote for Brexit , still, give them time I think, near another month to go!

[wc98]

cookie118 said:

You said you'd keep it on the front page until it had been answered-that seems pretty demanding to me.

And I did contribute-I pointed out that when the government of Poland and the eu's monitoring was raised as an example of bad behaviour by the eu that the polish government has been accused very strongly bunts journalists of trying to turn the media into a tool of government and a propaganda machine.

I'm pretty sure that if the uk government threatened the media for reporting about pro-brexit stories and brought in powers meaning it'd fine and fire people that disagreed with it you'd want something done? But that doesn't happen in the uk....
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-r...

you will not get any disagreement from me on that article. i think boris is a buffoon (being an arse myself it is easy to spot) and wouldn't let him take my dog for a walk never mind run the leave campaign. his performance has been abysmal to date and i do not expect it to get any better.

no truck with you, as you say, you responded to the post. that statement by juncker has to be the most worrisome that he has uttered during his tenure. i find it incredulous that people supposedly involved a debate(in the case of ///ajd heavily involved) around membership of the organisation he effectively runs have nothing to say on this.

[Murph7355]

FiF said:

Being a bit dim, but I'd like to hear in more detail this argument about France insisting on applying CAP post Brexit. Explanation needed please.

I think cookie was using it as a hypothetical example of how trade negotiations might pan out. e.g. if the Germans were to insist on zero tariffs on cars to protect their automotive exports to the UK, the French might agree to it only if CAP strings were attached to the deal.

As such, it's perfectly reasonable to think of it as a possibility. How likely it is to happen is anyone's guess.

How material any of this is to our own long term well being is also anyone's guess.

[Mr Whippy]

It's funny how the remain side is using negatives to want people to stay in, rather than positives. What the EU can offer us is ignored. Is that a sign it has no positives?

[Hosenbugler]

Mr Whippy said:

It's funny how the remain side is using negatives to want people to stay in, rather than positives. What the EU can offer us is ignored. Is that a sign it has no positives?

It has positives for politicains ,its their wet dream , power without accountability , it has positives for those with their snouts firmy in the trough, after all, the EU is corrupt , never had its accounts signed off. For the rest of us , nowt.

[FiF]

Murph7355 said:

FiF said:

Being a bit dim, but I'd like to hear in more detail this argument about France insisting on applying CAP post Brexit. Explanation needed please.

I think cookie was using it as a hypothetical example of how trade negotiations might pan out. e.g. if the Germans were to insist on zero tariffs on cars to protect their automotive exports to the UK, the French might agree to it only if CAP strings were attached to the deal.

As such, it's perfectly reasonable to think of it as a possibility. How likely it is to happen is anyone's guess.

How material any of this is to our own long term well being is also anyone's guess.

I'd like to hear the details of how he thinks something like this would work, in practice. Considering that the most likely post Brexit scenario we would be completely out from CAP, yet still supporting equivalent payments to farmers and regional development funds from UK government in order to keep stability in the industry.

Having thrown his assertion out there it needs backing up with some detail around the proposition, otherwise it is a worthless gambit.

Of course there will be some horse trading in the two year Article 50 negotiations, but as written before, both parties, EU and UK, will both be keen to minimise risks, neither side will want a drama. There may be some theatrical arm waving, but deep down no real drama desired.

[confused_buyer]

Hosenbugler said:

I'm of a similar frame of mind. I'm also deeply suspicious of the DT poll that suggested that the "leavers" of the elder generation are turning away from the leave vote. Polls can be easily skewed to get a result the pollster wants (yes I do have experience) and I would not be surprised if thats what has been done in that case.

ORB use a sample of 800 people so, in that, there were probably about 200 over 65s. Not a big sample and, as ever, to see a trend you'd need to look at the data from other polls.

There is still a huge, massive difference between phone and online polls at the moment. One polling method will look a bit silly come June 24. There have been a slew of phone polls in the last week showing Remain well ahead and extending their lead to "done deal" levels...yet today there is a YouGuv one out online showing it neck & neck.

[Puggit]

While we're talking about the French - let's not forget that they won't allow Strasbourg to be shut down. The ridiculous notion that for 4 days every month the EU, and all it's snouts in all the troughs, must move to another country.

Utterly crazy, and a sympton of how the EU is wasting money and cannot be reformed.

[paulrockliffe]

Puggit said:

While we're talking about the French - let's not forget that they won't allow Strasbourg to be shut down. The ridiculous notion that for 4 days every month the EU, and all it's snouts in all the troughs, must move to another country.

Utterly crazy, and a sympton of how the EU is wasting money and cannot be reformed.

It's ridiculous isn't it. Is there a justification for it beyond France wanting the EU to spend more money in France? Surely a pragmatic approach would be to make an adjustment somewhere else so that the cost benefit of having the EU based in any particular place would be negated.

[Sam All]

Puggit said:

While we're talking about the French - let's not forget that they won't allow Strasbourg to be shut down. The ridiculous notion that for 4 days every month the EU, and all it's snouts in all the troughs, must move to another country.

Utterly crazy, and a sympton of how the EU is wasting money and cannot be reformed.

Everyone in charge at the EU knows that is daft, and yet carry on.

That is the EU.