What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?

[Thankyou4calling]

A simple question.

50% ? Less, more.

Does anyone have an informed opinion, are there any stats out there as to how much interest there is in actually voting?

[Welshbeef]

Well as a gauge the 1975 referendum was a 65% turnout - my parents we in the middle of moving house and neither were able to vote.

[anonymous-user]

Yougov have an interactive thingy. Where you can adjust the overall turnout % and see what effect it could have https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=54&a...

Personally I reckon 50% ish maybe less.

[Beati Dogu]

The turnout at the 2011 national referendum (the only one since 1975) on alternative vote was 42.2%.

The Scottish independence referendum turnout in 2014 was 84.59%.

I think the June referendum will likely be around 60-65%.

[eatcustard]

71%

with vote OUT winning

[Blaster72]

I'm predicting less than 50% with the result sadly to stay in.

[Smollet]

62.913876521765320971% with exactly the same for leaving as for not.

[MrBarry123]

Smollet said:

62.913876521765320971% with exactly the same for leaving as for not.

But with the percentage you have given, that outcome would be impossible as you'd end up with a fraction of a person on either side.

[irocfan]

Blaster72 said:

I'm predicting less than 50% with the result sadly to stay in.

this ^^^^

[Slaav]

MrBarry123 said:

Smollet said:

62.913876521765320971% with exactly the same for leaving as for not.

But with the percentage you have given, that outcome would be impossible as you'd end up with a fraction of a person on either side.

You sure about that?

Maybe that %age of the voting population means that there is an even number of votes cast? Or am I getting it wrong?

There is also the issue of spoiled ballots and even if that is an odd number, if one ballot was spoiled..... etc etc.

[Mothersruin]

Saw Ed Mliband earlier urging kids to get on the electoral role as they're three times more likely to vote Remain.

Interesting they're worried about the turnout for that demographic.

[Funk]

irocfan said:

Blaster72 said:

I'm predicting less than 50% with the result sadly to stay in.

this ^^^^

I sadly concur.

[Smollet]

Blaster72 said:

I'm predicting less than 50% with the result sadly to stay in.

I think the lower the turnout will favour leave

[Mothersruin]

I'm hoping the Leave people will be more motivated rather than the Remain who will be more apathetic to the status quo staying as is.

[ianrb]

I don't think many people are interested, a position not helped by the dire campaigns. So less less than 40% turnout, with a small majority for remain.

[Crush]

146% turnout voting remain

[wc98]

anything less than 50% and we will vote to leave i think. my guess on turnout will be 55 -60%.

[Beati Dogu]

Crush said:

146% turnout voting remain

Yes, they're so desperate now they may overdo the postal vote fraud.

[Norfolkit]

65% turnout and I've no idea what the result will be.

[Johnnytheboy]

I think turnout is going to have a big effect.

My gut feeling is that Brexit supporters are a bit likelier to turn out, even if it's a horrible day.