What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?
Discussion
Without going into my own personal opinion on stay or leave I tend to have a small voice at the back of my mind telling me that too many people in power have their noses in the EU trough to allow a vote leave to win, no matter what the turn out....dont know why, maybe I should make myself a tin hat?
hedgefinder said:
Without going into my own personal opinion on stay or leave I tend to have a small voice at the back of my mind telling me that too many people in power have their noses in the EU trough to allow a vote leave to win, no matter what the turn out....dont know why, maybe I should make myself a tin hat?
Your not alone in your thoughts, maybe that's why the postal votes have gone out early to gauge the response..... please post up your design for your tin hat for us all to share. 
Johnnytheboy said:
I think turnout is going to have a big effect.
My gut feeling is that Brexit supporters are a bit likelier to turn out, even if it's a horrible day.
I think you're right.My gut feeling is that Brexit supporters are a bit likelier to turn out, even if it's a horrible day.
Now you've got hardcore Remainers (Greens, Lib Dems etc) who will definitely vote.
You've got hardcore Leavers (Major's Tory b
ds, Mondeo man/white van man, most working class industrial areas, Kippers and Norfolk [except Norwich which is weirdly up itself and Green]) who will also definitely vote.Of those two groups I think the Leavers shade the numbers easily.
However there's also a lot of people in between who aren't really Leave or Remain in any big sense, I'd guess 50% or more of the electorate.
Some of those genuinely don't care one way or the other and probably won't vote.
Some of them fear change so will vote for the status quo, maybe not with any enthusiasm but they'll vote stay.
The rest are/were undecided, some will stay that way and won't vote, some will be frightened by Project Fear and will vote Remain, I don't think too many will move from undecided to Leave as that's not what electorates do.
I suspect the turnout of the "undecideds" will determine the result. Cameron's (self inflicted) problem is that he's run such a divisive and negative campaign that the "undecideds" won't be voting with any enthusiasm and might end up not voting at all.
Big "Leave" hoardings have appeared on a neighbour's land, where he normally puts his UKIP ones. These are the only ones I've seen so far on private property.
FWIW, I think the turnout will be 50 +/- 5%, and the result will be in the same ballpark. I do hope that the Leave campaign get some less strident voices on board, rather than relying on the same old white male professional politicians.
FWIW, I think the turnout will be 50 +/- 5%, and the result will be in the same ballpark. I do hope that the Leave campaign get some less strident voices on board, rather than relying on the same old white male professional politicians.
ben5575 said:
For me it's more interesting to see from that graphic that the generation that voted us into the EU are now the most keen for us to leave. Whilst the majority of those who won't be dead in 10 years want us to remain.
Experience teaches you what a bucket of bullst looks like. you tend not to stick you hand in the second time you see it.Try something more interesting, find out why so many people who voted in last time are voting out this time, maybe by asking a few, they can't all be mad.
gothatway said:
Big "Leave" hoardings have appeared on a neighbour's land, where he normally puts his UKIP ones. These are the only ones I've seen so far on private property.
FWIW, I think the turnout will be 50 +/- 5%, and the result will be in the same ballpark. I do hope that the Leave campaign get some less strident voices on board, rather than relying on the same old white male professional politicians.
there are quite a few "vote leave" banners round this way TBHFWIW, I think the turnout will be 50 +/- 5%, and the result will be in the same ballpark. I do hope that the Leave campaign get some less strident voices on board, rather than relying on the same old white male professional politicians.
ben5575 said:
For me it's more interesting to see from that graphic that the generation that voted us into the EU are now the most keen for us to leave. Whilst the majority of those who won't be dead in 10 years want us to remain.
They didn't vote for us to join a "European union", they voted for us to stay in a common market and were blatantly lied too by the powers that be. It's a case of "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me". Perhaps when the current crop of supposedly pro-EU youngsters grow up, they'll have their chance to repent in another 40 years as well. Although I don't give the EU that long personally.
If you have a play around with the yougov referendum voting simulator the variable that makes the most difference is turnout.
Even if Remain has a slight lead, say 4% , in the polls anything less than a 70 % turnout with a slight skew towards the older voter gives a 50/50 result. A 60% turnout gives a 49/51 result for Leave.
Basically Remain has to be a good 5% ahead in the polls and have a 74% turnout to win 51/49.
A 54% Turnout, even with Remain 5% ahead in the polls, gives victory to Leave.
Thats why Milliband et al are trying like hell to get the "yoof" out of bed, registered and voting.
I think that the Leave support is being under-reported and unrecognised given that I really do not know anyone who is for remaining in the EU.
Still lets hope that this indeed is the case as the "undecided but leaning towards remain voters " may think its a forgone conclusion and fail to turn up to vote.
Cheers,
Tony
Even if Remain has a slight lead, say 4% , in the polls anything less than a 70 % turnout with a slight skew towards the older voter gives a 50/50 result. A 60% turnout gives a 49/51 result for Leave.
Basically Remain has to be a good 5% ahead in the polls and have a 74% turnout to win 51/49.
A 54% Turnout, even with Remain 5% ahead in the polls, gives victory to Leave.
Thats why Milliband et al are trying like hell to get the "yoof" out of bed, registered and voting.
I think that the Leave support is being under-reported and unrecognised given that I really do not know anyone who is for remaining in the EU.
Still lets hope that this indeed is the case as the "undecided but leaning towards remain voters " may think its a forgone conclusion and fail to turn up to vote.
Cheers,
Tony
Edited by Tony427 on Sunday 29th May 01:47
Johnnytheboy said:
I think turnout is going to have a big effect.
My gut feeling is that Brexit supporters are a bit likelier to turn out, even if it's a horrible day.
Some of the polls have also asked if people intend to vote not just how. I know of some private research by a major investment bank that recons the bias is so large leave has been well ahead until recently. Now neck and neck.My gut feeling is that Brexit supporters are a bit likelier to turn out, even if it's a horrible day.
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