What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?

What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?

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Discussion

Crush

15,077 posts

168 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
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gothatway said:
Big "Leave" hoardings have appeared on a neighbour's land, where he normally puts his UKIP ones. These are the only ones I've seen so far on private property.

FWIW, I think the turnout will be 50 +/- 5%, and the result will be in the same ballpark. I do hope that the Leave campaign get some less strident voices on board, rather than relying on the same old white male professional politicians.
I've noticed the same in the Labour areas. Where you'd normally see anti-Tory/Pro Labour placards at election time there are 'Get out' and 'Leave' posters.

Not seen much promoting remain, but I guess they don't need it with the media promotion on radio/tv/newspapers.

hidetheelephants

23,772 posts

192 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Collectingbrass said:
The bookies would disagree with many of you.



I've never met a poor bookie...
I know a few people who keep the bookies in business and they're always broke because they'll bet on any damn thing if it's odds-on.

irocfan

40,153 posts

189 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Have we had any doorknockers for this yet?

ukaskew

10,642 posts

220 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
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Mothersruin said:
Saw Ed Mliband earlier urging kids to get on the electoral role as they're three times more likely to vote Remain.

Interesting they're worried about the turnout for that demographic.
They polled over 2000 students at the Uni I work at, remain won by a massive, massive margin (something like 92%). No wonder they want that age group registered.

Even though the Leave voters would appear to be more passionate and therefore likely to vote, I think the sheer volume of coverage and scaremongering for the Remain campaign will mean a comfortable victory for them.

PorkInsider

5,877 posts

140 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
ukaskew said:
Even though the Leave voters would appear to be more passionate and therefore likely to vote, I think the sheer volume of coverage and scaremongering for the Remain campaign will mean a comfortable victory for them.
Definitely agree with that ^^

I also think it will be like the general election: the incredibly vocal (read loud-mouthed) lefty population making all the noise on social media while the more right-leaning kept quiet.

When it comes to the EU vote it seems to be that on Twitter, etc, people feel confident shouting about supporting 'Leave' but the 'Remainers' are less vocal.

Just my perception but I think it will be proved correct.

I'm undecided still, myself...

Norfolkit

2,394 posts

189 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
PorkInsider said:
Definitely agree with that ^^

I also think it will be like the general election: the incredibly vocal (read loud-mouthed) lefty population making all the noise on social media while the more right-leaning kept quiet.

When it comes to the EU vote it seems to be that on Twitter, etc, people feel confident shouting about supporting 'Leave' but the 'Remainers' are less vocal.

Just my perception but I think it will be proved correct.
Whereas my experience is completely different. To be honest I've not seen much comment at all on social media from the people I know, but someone picked up the BBC poll about voting intention by age and socio-economic grouping, the first reply was

"To me Brexit = Arrogant and/or Selfish and/or Greedy and/or Racist and in some cases all of them!"

and it carried on like that. Everyone who so much as tried to show support for Brexit was "shouted down", more often than not with the race card.

Probably why there's been so little comment.

XCP

16,876 posts

227 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
I have told everyone that I am friends with that I will defriend anyone who forwards me referendum propaganda via Facebook. As I have voted they are wasting my time anyway.
So far I have defriended 10 people in 3 days. All are pro-exit/Kippers.
No-one has sent me Remain material.

S10GTA

12,645 posts

166 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
67% turnout and remain, hopefully

Sam All

3,101 posts

100 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
S10GTA said:
67% turnout and remain
yes

Blaster72

10,774 posts

196 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
XCP said:
I have told everyone that I am friends with that I will defriend anyone who forwards me referendum propaganda via Facebook. As I have voted they are wasting my time anyway.
So far I have defriended 10 people in 3 days. All are pro-exit/Kippers.
No-one has sent me Remain material.
Is that satire or are you being serious?

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
XCP said:
I have told everyone that I am friends with that I will defriend anyone who forwards me referendum propaganda via Facebook. As I have voted they are wasting my time anyway.
So far I have defriended 10 people in 3 days. All are pro-exit/Kippers.
No-one has sent me Remain material.
How old are you? I'm early 30's and my Facebook is chock full of remain stuff, tiny number of leavers.

XCP

16,876 posts

227 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Blaster72 said:
Is that satire or are you being serious?
Totally serious. Why do you ask?

XCP

16,876 posts

227 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
XCP said:
I have told everyone that I am friends with that I will defriend anyone who forwards me referendum propaganda via Facebook. As I have voted they are wasting my time anyway.
So far I have defriended 10 people in 3 days. All are pro-exit/Kippers.
No-one has sent me Remain material.
How old are you? I'm early 30's and my Facebook is chock full of remain stuff, tiny number of leavers.
Mid 50's. So are most of my friends. I don't know anyone who has sent me pro-stay material.

Blaster72

10,774 posts

196 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
XCP said:
Blaster72 said:
Is that satire or are you being serious?
Totally serious. Why do you ask?
It seemed so absurd that it had to be an attempt at comedy.

anonymous-user

53 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Collectingbrass said:
The bookies would disagree with many of you.



I've never met a poor bookie...
All the odds tell you is the weight of betting in each direction. You could move the odds by placing a big enough bet either way but by doing so you have not changed the probability of the outcome in any way. That said the change in odds is consistent with the move in gbp and the banks have done their own private polĺing...

Blaster72

10,774 posts

196 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
To be fair the bookies made a right hash of predicting the last election results.

XCP

16,876 posts

227 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Blaster72 said:
XCP said:
Blaster72 said:
Is that satire or are you being serious?
Totally serious. Why do you ask?
It seemed so absurd that it had to be an attempt at comedy.
Well it has certainly slowed the flow of unsolicited rubbish I am receiving. I will refriend ( if that is a term) them after the referendum. I honestly can't see the point of trying to influence someone who has already voted, can you?

EddieSteadyGo

11,726 posts

202 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
XCP said:
Well it has certainly slowed the flow of unsolicited rubbish I am receiving. I will refriend ( if that is a term) them after the referendum. I honestly can't see the point of trying to influence someone who has already voted, can you?
Over enthusiasm

SpeedMattersNot

4,506 posts

195 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Blaster72 said:
To be fair the bookies made a right hash of predicting the last election results.
They got the Premiership Football League spot on, though.

clonmult

10,529 posts

208 months

Tuesday 31st May 2016
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
XCP said:
I have told everyone that I am friends with that I will defriend anyone who forwards me referendum propaganda via Facebook. As I have voted they are wasting my time anyway.
So far I have defriended 10 people in 3 days. All are pro-exit/Kippers.
No-one has sent me Remain material.
How old are you? I'm early 30's and my Facebook is chock full of remain stuff, tiny number of leavers.
I see a good few people in my facebook feed who are pro leave. And a few who are in the remain camp. And the only ones who can hold a decent discussion on the merits of their view are those in the remain camp.

Means naff all really other than I know people from all walks of life.