What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?

[CaptainSlow]

clonmult said:

I see a good few people in my facebook feed who are pro leave. And a few who are in the remain camp. And the only ones who can hold a decent discussion on the merits of their view are those in the remain camp.

Means naff all really other than I know people from all walks of life.

Complete opposite to what I'm seeing. Ask anyone why they wish to remain they all regurgitate "facts" and figures spouted by Cameron and Osborne that have already been discredited.

[clonmult]

CaptainSlow said:

clonmult said:

I see a good few people in my facebook feed who are pro leave. And a few who are in the remain camp. And the only ones who can hold a decent discussion on the merits of their view are those in the remain camp.

Means naff all really other than I know people from all walks of life.

Complete opposite to what I'm seeing. Ask anyone why they wish to remain they all regurgitate "facts" and figures spouted by Cameron and Osborne that have already been discredited.

I've seen similar for the "facts" splurged out by the leave campaign too. Both sides are just making it up and trying to scare people into their way of thinking.

[Nick Grant]

66% turnout

55% remain
45% leave

[rossi1001]

Visited my parents last week in South Essex (Benfleet, Southend, Leigh etc) and saw loads of leave posters and not a single remain!

My parents are both voting out as is everyone they know. My dad's an electrician and my mum a secretary,so both working class backgrounds.

I live in North Essex (Braintree) and I've not seen any posters for either side near here. I'm undecided which way myself although probably leaning towards Brexit.

I think turnout will vary wildly in different areas of the country,but overall I would expect a higher turnout than a general election.

I think somewhere in the 60% range.

[clonmult]

Nick Grant said:

66% turnout

55% remain
45% leave

Turnout will be high, but unsure if it'll be quite that high.

Reckon it'll probably just swing towards remain, but way closer than that. When the votes are counted, will there likely be a breakdown by area? It'll be interesting to see how different parts of the country vote.

[dandarez]

rossi1001 said:

Visited my parents last week in South Essex (Benfleet, Southend, Leigh etc) and saw loads of leave posters and not a single remain!

My parents are both voting out as is everyone they know. My dad's an electrician and my mum a secretary,so both working class backgrounds.

I live in North Essex (Braintree) and I've not seen any posters for either side near here. I'm undecided which way myself although probably leaning towards Brexit.

I think turnout will vary wildly in different areas of the country,but overall I would expect a higher turnout than a general election.

I think somewhere in the 60% range.

Re your comment at the top, I do a regular bit of business with an Essex company north of you. I'm in Camoron town, Oxfordshire. I had mailed the PDF of a job over to this company, which for once needed some clarification on the phone. As we were chatting about the job we got on to the current state of business, and he said 'All will be fine once we've left ...oops, sorry perhaps I shouldn't have said that?'
I said, 'Don't worry, I'm an Outer.'
We had a good old chat about business and he said that he had yet to meet a single person in his area who wanted to remain, apart from his own son!'

I have no idea what the turnout will be. But I voted in the last Ref and was on the winning side. I was young and naïve, but I hope to be on the winning side again. OUT!

[Johnnytheboy]

Exactly like the Scotland indy referendum.

The side that shouts loudest isn't necessarily going to win.

[irocfan]

Johnnytheboy said:

Exactly like the Scotland indy referendum.

The side that shouts loudest isn't necessarily going to win.

thing is both sides are shouting as loudly (and inanely) as the other

[djc206]

High I hope. This is far bigger than any general election where you just choose the colour of tie that 650 aholes wear for the subsequent 4-5 years.

My money is on around 2/3 with 55-45 leave vote. I think the old crusties and the tabloid reading racists will win it for leave (I'm erring towards leave by the way). 200,000 people will be too busy listening to Corbyn harp on about nuclear disarmament at Glasto to cast their votes for remain unless they remember to register for a postal vote in the next week.

[hidetheelephants]

clonmult said:

Turnout will be high, but unsure if it'll be quite that high.

Reckon it'll probably just swing towards remain, but way closer than that. When the votes are counted, will there likely be a breakdown by area? It'll be interesting to see how different parts of the country vote.

Assuming it's just the same routine as the indyref the counts are conducted by the same folk as a GE and the areas declare individually through the night, which was pretty dull compared to an election; TBH I wish I hadn't bothered sitting up and watching, even through beer goggles.

[rossi1001]

dandarez said:

rossi1001 said:

Visited my parents last week in South Essex (Benfleet, Southend, Leigh etc) and saw loads of leave posters and not a single remain!

My parents are both voting out as is everyone they know. My dad's an electrician and my mum a secretary,so both working class backgrounds.

I live in North Essex (Braintree) and I've not seen any posters for either side near here. I'm undecided which way myself although probably leaning towards Brexit.

I think turnout will vary wildly in different areas of the country,but overall I would expect a higher turnout than a general election.

I think somewhere in the 60% range.

Re your comment at the top, I do a regular bit of business with an Essex company north of you. I'm in Camoron town, Oxfordshire. I had mailed the PDF of a job over to this company, which for once needed some clarification on the phone. As we were chatting about the job we got on to the current state of business, and he said 'All will be fine once we've left ...oops, sorry perhaps I shouldn't have said that?'
I said, 'Don't worry, I'm an Outer.'
We had a good old chat about business and he said that he had yet to meet a single person in his area who wanted to remain, apart from his own son!'

Interesting comments!

I could be wrong but I think Essex is very disproportionate to the rest of the country with a very significant vote leave majority. Clacton is North Essex of course, the seat of Douglas Carswell and you have places like Thurrock where UKIP have a large following.

[wc98]

rossi1001 said:

Interesting comments!

I could be wrong but I think Essex is very disproportionate to the rest of the country with a very significant vote leave majority. Clacton is North Essex of course, the seat of Douglas Carswell and you have places like Thurrock where UKIP have a large following.

well you have east anglia, the north west and the north east all likely to vote leave so i think it depends which area you look at when deciding what it is disproportionate to.

as for demographics, both Pakistani and indian friends say they will be voting leave so i think there are so many variables all the polls can be taken with a pinch of salt. there is only one that matters anyway.

[Sargeant Orange]

Surprised with the betting odds, doesn't reflect what you hear day to day

[Mothersruin]

FWIW, my Indian wife would be a staunch Leave voter as she's horrified at the state of the country. She thinks we've become a bunch of pussies that pander to everyone else but our own people and roll over far too easily.

She wonders where the heart and soul of the country that once ruled the world has gone. Ironic.

[oyster]

Beati Dogu said:

ben5575 said:

For me it's more interesting to see from that graphic that the generation that voted us into the EU are now the most keen for us to leave. Whilst the majority of those who won't be dead in 10 years want us to remain.

They didn't vote for us to join a "European union", they voted for us to stay in a common market and were blatantly lied too by the powers that be. It's a case of "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".

Perhaps when the current crop of supposedly pro-EU youngsters grow up, they'll have their chance to repent in another 40 years as well. Although I don't give the EU that long personally.

It's not that simple though.

Demographics for this referendum seem to rotate around a number of factors, some of which seem contradictory.
For example, older people are more likely to be in favour of Brexit. Wealthy people more in favour of Remain. But older voters tend to be more wealthy.
It's what makes targetting voters very hard.

[BlackLabel]

Authorities Prepare For 80% EU Vote Turnout. Sky News learns the electoral watchdog has told polling stations and returning officers to plan for record-breaking turnout.

skynews said:

Ms Watson said that this was not a formal prediction of turnout, but expectations and interest in the plebiscite are surging.

Independent polling companies now report levels of definite voting at or above those of 60% seen at the last general election.

Cabinet ministers have been privately bullish about turnout, suggesting a level over 65%.

Officials at Vote Leave have been highly sceptical, offering bets with journalists that turnout will be below 60%.

[Mothersruin]

Given the 2 extra days for those kids that couldn't register in the last 2 hours of the official, written in law (but we'll fudge that..) deadline ,I expect a 102% turnout with a narrow Remain result.

[irocfan]

I must admit to not understanding... this has been on the horizon for the last 2 years, registration has been talked about for the last 2 months and yet people whinge when they can't register in the last 2 minutes. fk 'em, if they're that dumb or lazy they don't deserve to have a vote (whether outtie or innie)

[Mario149]

I'd like to think turnout will be really high, 75% or more, given how important a decision it is. Another poster's comments on here about how much more important it is than electing the colour of 650 people's ties for 5 years is bang on I think, as well as funny

As for result? I think it's going to be close, very close and could go either way

OR

A little voice in my head is saying Remain will win by a surprising margin.

Can't say why I think the latter might happen, but from what I've seen I just have this gut feeling that on average the Leave camp is far more vocal and passionate than the Stay camp and so may be over-represented.

[Spice_Weasel]

I'm firmly out but think we'll see the following:

<65% turnout
Remain wins 55% against 45% for Leave
Turkey joins (or at least their citizens are allowed access)
We see a steady, creeping change towards full federalism
EU wide recession
Within 5 years we will see one of the other member states leave
We will wish we'd left when we had the chance
Within 8 years UK leaves the EU
Within 10 years EU collapses