What will the turnout be at the EU referendum?

[anonymous-user]

Mario149 said:

A little voice in my head is saying Remain will win by a surprising margin.

Can't say why I think the latter might happen, but from what I've seen I just have this gut feeling that on average the Leave camp is far more vocal and passionate than the Stay camp and so may be over-represented.

It's anyones guess but the 'shy tory' effect is real and over the last 20 odd years has seen Tory popular vote outperforming the polls by between 5 and 10%; so successful was the left's campaign to brand conservative values as toxic and nasty. Likewise I wonder if the remain campaigns apparent success in asserting leavers are uneducated, miserable, old 'little englanders' and or racists isn't going to similarly skew the polls, possibly by even more.

[Mario149]

fblm said:

Mario149 said:

A little voice in my head is saying Remain will win by a surprising margin.

Can't say why I think the latter might happen, but from what I've seen I just have this gut feeling that on average the Leave camp is far more vocal and passionate than the Stay camp and so may be over-represented.

It's anyones guess but the 'shy tory' effect is real and over the last 20 odd years has seen Tory popular vote outperforming the polls by between 5 and 10%; so successful was the left's campaign to brand conservative values as toxic and nasty. Likewise I wonder if the remain campaigns apparent success in asserting leavers are uneducated, miserable, old 'little englanders' and or racists isn't going to similarly skew the polls, possibly by even more.

That's funny, I was thinking that the shy (moderate) Tory thing might go the other way i.e. it's quite "popular" (can't think of a better word at the mo) for those on the right of the current government ("real"/"old school" Tories?) who don't like DC to be vocal about Leaving. Whereas I think a lot of Tory voters who don't think DC is too bad and aren't eurosceptic, don't speak up due to being too Tory for the left wing (Labour et al) people and not Tory enough for the right wing.

Anyway, I've no evidence for this, it's just a feeling I have. But as with the GE, putting whether I like the result of the referendum or not to one side, it's certainly going to be an interesting time to live through and analyse in hindsight.

[anonymous-user]

Mario149 said:

Anyway, I've no evidence for this, it's just a feeling I have.

I'm extrapolating from a sample size of my parents to the entire population.

[anonymous-user]

Oh and one other thing, if the exiters are the little englanders we are lead to believe, they might not want their name on a list of those with seditious intent when they loose!

[Sam All]

Mothersruin said:

Given the 2 extra days for those kids that couldn't register in the last 2 hours of the official, written in law (but we'll fudge that..) deadline ,I expect a 102% turnout with a narrow Remain result.

Mugabe will be proud.

[AJL308]

irocfan said:

I must admit to not understanding... this has been on the horizon for the last 2 years, registration has been talked about for the last 2 months and yet people whinge when they can't register in the last 2 minutes. fk 'em, if they're that dumb or lazy they don't deserve to have a vote (whether outtie or innie)

I tend to agree.

However, in all fairness, people should be able to register right up to the deadline if they choose. If it were a postal deadline then anything postmarked on that date would be accepted.

A 48 hour extension is ridiculous though, especially as there were only said to be about 26K people on the site a few minutes prior to midnight anyway.

Does the site record their IP addresses? If so then they have evidence and should be allowed to register. By extending the deadline hugely people who had no hope (or intention) of registering can now do so.

If Parliament is going to lay down rules to govern elections they should be adhered to. Any extension to, or widening of, those rules should be done within the spirit of the rules solely so that people who had made genuine efforts to comply with them originally are able to take advantage of them.

[AJL308]

Mario149 said:

I'd like to think turnout will be really high, 75% or more, given how important a decision it is.

Me too.

To be honest, if we stay in after a poor turnout then no one can really complain when we end up as part of the basket case that the EU will end up as.

[Tony427]

Anything more than a 70% turnout and I think remain will narrowly win, anything less than 65 and leave have it, just.

It all depends on the youngsters. The crusties like me will have either already voted with a postal vote or will be out in force on the day doing their bit for the leave camp.

Remain will be desperately trying to get the youngsters out of their pits, out of the house/flat/squat and into the voting booth.

Cheers,

Tony

[mph1977]

Beati Dogu said:

They didn't vote for us to join a "European union", they voted for us to stay in a common market and were blatantly lied too by the powers that be. It's a case of "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".
.

i presume you've seen the materials from 'last time' which disabuse that BeLeaver Lie ( yet another one)

[anonymous-user]

Tony427 said:

Remain will be desperately trying to get the youngsters out of their pits, out of the house/flat/squat and into the voting booth.

The leave campaign should visit every campus and give out free pot noodles the day before then they would have no reason to leave the house and would play xbox and wnak all day.

[AJL308]

Tony427 said:

Anything more than a 70% turnout and I think remain will narrowly win, anything less than 65 and leave have it, just.

It all depends on the youngsters. The crusties like me will have either already voted with a postal vote or will be out in force on the day doing their bit for the leave camp.

Remain will be desperately trying to get the youngsters out of their pits, out of the house/flat/squat and into the voting booth.

Cheers,

Tony

I think you are right. At the last few elections I've voted late in the day as I always work late Thursdays.

This time I'm taking no chances and will be voting in the morning. If there's a queue at the polling station then I'll wait in it and be late for work if need be.

[AJL308]

mph1977 said:

Beati Dogu said:

They didn't vote for us to join a "European union", they voted for us to stay in a common market and were blatantly lied too by the powers that be. It's a case of "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".
.

i presume you've seen the materials from 'last time' which disabuse that BeLeaver Lie ( yet another one)

I totally agree that nothing was 'hidden' from the electorate as regards the issue of people believing that they were voting for a trade community not a political union. I do think though that the full extent of what was being voted on simply wasn't understood properly (by the media also) and that none of the 'stay' camp back then went out of their way to make the situation clear. They aren't doing that now either as 'ever closer union' means precisely that - an eventual Federal State.

If that is what you want then vote to stay. I don't so I will vote to leave.

[Welshbeef]

I'm going 83%

[cloggy]

Been here 34 years but still have Dutch nationality so have my son and daughter so we can't vote.
Ridiculous, you take our taxes but no representation for us.

Luckily Mrs Cloggy (who is British) will vote Out, she lived in Holland for 13 years and speaks fluent Dutch.

Nearly all of our Dutch family and friends want a referendum too to vote out.
That must tell you something.

Feck the EU corrupt politicians vote the feckers out (good bye Junkers, Kinnocks, Mandelson, etc, etc,)

[irocfan]

Mario149 said:

I
A little voice in my head is saying Remain will win by a surprising margin.

unfortunately I do agree with you - it's not what I want, but I agree with you

[B'stard Child]

irocfan said:

Mario149 said:

I
A little voice in my head is saying Remain will win by a surprising margin.

unfortunately I do agree with you - it's not what I want, but I agree with you

I agree too right now the vote is really too close to call

If you are remain you are unlikely to have your mind changed

If you are leave the unless you are an MP in the conservative party you mind is pretty much made up

The key to opening up a gap is with the undecided - I think the in the next two weeks or more probably in the last few days running up to the vote a bombshell with be dropped and have a large number of undecided scuttling towards remain.

I still think the turnout will be quite high - but it needs to be

[Mario149]

fblm said:

Oh and one other thing, if the exiters are the little englanders we are lead to believe, they might not want their name on a list of those with seditious intent when they loose!

Probably just gave a false name

[anonymous-user]

cloggy said:

Been here 34 years but still have Dutch nationality so have my son and daughter so we can't vote.
Ridiculous, you take our taxes but no representation for us.

Luckily Mrs Cloggy (who is British) will vote Out, she lived in Holland for 13 years and speaks fluent Dutch.

Nearly all of our Dutch family and friends want a referendum too to vote out.
That must tell you something.

Feck the EU corrupt politicians vote the feckers out (good bye Junkers, Kinnocks, Mandelson, etc, etc,)

It's not rediculous. Apply for UK citizenship if voting matters to you, no one is stopping you.

[anonymous-user]

Collectingbrass said:

The bookies would disagree with many of you.



I've never met a poor bookie...

I've only ever placed a bet once in my life. £50 was the sum bet. I took £2500 off Coral's.

Sometimes they get it spectacularly wrong.

[Tony427]

jsf said:

cloggy said:

Been here 34 years but still have Dutch nationality so have my son and daughter so we can't vote.
Ridiculous, you take our taxes but no representation for us.

Luckily Mrs Cloggy (who is British) will vote Out, she lived in Holland for 13 years and speaks fluent Dutch.

Nearly all of our Dutch family and friends want a referendum too to vote out.
That must tell you something.

Feck the EU corrupt politicians vote the feckers out (good bye Junkers, Kinnocks, Mandelson, etc, etc,)

It's not rediculous. Apply for UK citizenship if voting matters to you, no one is stopping you.

My mother is Dutch. She is 88 years old. She has lived in the UK since she was 24 years old. She has never been able to vote but would not relinquish her Dutch passport or nationality for anything. And I'm always the one taking her to London to get her passport, feeding the meter whilst she waits in the queue for her passport amongst all the other proud Dutchmen. It actually make me quite proud of my Dutch lineage.

The Dutch as a nation are the most stoic of people. You would no more ask a Dutchman to give up their nationality than you would ask a clergyman to renounce their religion.

If they could get out from under the EU yoke they would. But as the EU said following the last referendum in Holland, "they are only 24 million people they don't matter."

Cheers,

Tony