Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan

[kurt535]

Jinx said:

lostkiwi said:

Greg66 said:

kurt535 said:

Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?

Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?

What happens to Government Gilts?

Is our credit rating lowered?

Does the housing market stop?

Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?

IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess.

Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.

Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.

Totally agree.
I've mentioned about the lack of a plan and how we are effectively being asked if we want to jump off a cliff in the hope the water is deep enough to soften the landing but as usual just get smart answers and no substance.
The levels of unknowns in a Brexit are enormous.

The leavers are not in government. Will not be in government on the 24th June and do not have a mandate to run the country. This is a question over the whether to remain a member of the political entity called the EU. The running of the economy and the country will still fall to the Houses of Parliament and the BoE. The fact is if a Brexit vote comes to pass many more options over the economy will be viable - if that scares you then perhaps I'd step away from the trading desk.

Sorry Jinx, we will agree to disagree. Politics and UKOK are the smokescreen to the economic issues that have not been addressed by Brexit. if it was just politics, £ and FTSE wouldn't be getting hit.

[Jinx]

kurt535 said:

Sorry Jinx, we will agree to disagree. Politics and UKOK are the smokescreen to the economic issues that have not been addressed by Brexit. if it was just politics, £ and FTSE wouldn't be getting hit.

Politics always effects exchange rates and the FTSE - since the crash the market is in constant panic mode - US labour rates, China's slight dip in GDP increase - Brazil's virus/tourism problems - when you are monitoring the markets as closely as we do you can't sort the signal from the noise. So you can blame brexit fears or brexit hopes, climate change or the man in the moon and correlate on any particular day what ever you want. Until long after the event it is only noise in the markets.

[gp1699]

If the leave vote wins... When or how long will it take to be officially be out?

[lostkiwi]

gp1699 said:

If the leave vote wins... When or how long will it take to be officially be out?

At least two years but likely to be much longer than that.
I've seen one estimate of 7 years.

[PositronicRay]

As has been said a vote leave is a mandate to start to work everything out.


The Sceptic Isle, Flexcit (but nobody's listening to them) have produced the only credible plan of how it could work. We'll have plenty of political turmoil whatever happens.

https://thescepticisle.com/blog-3/

[ralphrj]

gp1699 said:

If the leave vote wins... When or how long will it take to be officially be out?

Under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty the clock starts ticking when a Member State notifies the European Council of their intention to exit the EU.

The Member State then has to negotiate an exit treaty with the EU within 2 years (unless both parties agree to extend the period).

The exit treaty would have to be approved by the European Council and then the European Parliament.

If an exit treaty can not be agreed and neither can agree to an extension then the member state automatically leaves after the end of 2 years.



So to answer your question, it depends.

A negotiated exit could take maybe 10 years.

A chaotic exit could take as little as 2 years.

[don4l]

kurt535 said:

Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?

Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?

What happens to Government Gilts?

Is our credit rating lowered?

Does the housing market stop?

Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?

Don't worry. If we vote Leave a large asteroid will land near Birmingham and we will all be instantly vapourised. You won't feel a thing.

The extra weight of the asteroid will affect the gravitational relationship between the Earth and Sun. The Earth will immediately head straight towards the Sun. 10 minutes later the planet will be consumed. The Sun will now exceed the Chandrasekhar limit and will go supernova. The rest of the planets, the asteroid belt and the Oort cloud will all be blown away.

Then it will become very, very quiet. It will be incredibly peaceful.


Or perhaps sod all will change.


Cameron will go, but who cares?

[kurt535]

OP - markets getting whacked due to economic problems associated with leaving. Politics not moving £ FTSE at the moment.

My heart is happy to leave but my financial head sees us being launched into a global economy that is very unstable. Therefore, the image of UK, the plucky Brit, forging ahead post EU is not working for me. We won't automatically have a wave to ride. And the bond market situation is still largely unknown by Joe Soap......

[CrutyRammers]

stongle said:

We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).

Yeah, because, sod democracy, it's all about the money, right?

[markh1973]

ralphrj said:

gp1699 said:

If the leave vote wins... When or how long will it take to be officially be out?

Under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty the clock starts ticking when a Member State notifies the European Council of their intention to exit the EU.

The Member State then has to negotiate an exit treaty with the EU within 2 years (unless both parties agree to extend the period).

The exit treaty would have to be approved by the European Council and then the European Parliament.

If an exit treaty can not be agreed and neither can agree to an extension then the member state automatically leaves after the end of 2 years.



So to answer your question, it depends.

A negotiated exit could take maybe 10 years.

A chaotic exit could take as little as 2 years.

Didn't Gove say we will still be in in 2020?

[anonymous-user]

Jinx said:

The fact is if a Brexit vote comes to pass many more options over the economy will be viable

Colour me a pedant, but I don't really find that level of detail reassuring.

[chow pan toon]

CrutyRammers said:

stongle said:

We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).

Yeah, because, sod democracy, it's all about the money, right?

Considering the industrial quantity of bullst from both sides do you consider the electorate sufficiently informed to make an educated decision?

[Zod]

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 14th June 09:00

ignorance is bliss, eh?

There are already FTAs in force between the EU and 18 of the 50 Commonwealth states (36% of the remaining Commonwealth). The EU has agreed FTAs with 14 of the other countries (28%), subject only to completing the ratification process. It is negotiating or about to start negotiating FTAs with a further 13 states (26%). That leaves only 5 Commonwealth states (10% of the non-EU total) that the EU is not planning FTA talks with.

[Jockman]

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 14th June 09:00

ignorance is bliss, eh?

There are already FTAs in force between the EU and 18 of the 50 Commonwealth states (36% of the remaining Commonwealth). The EU has agreed FTAs with 14 of the other countries (28%), subject only to completing the ratification process. It is negotiating or about to start negotiating FTAs with a further 13 states (26%). That leaves only 5 Commonwealth states (10% of the non-EU total) that the EU is not planning FTA talks with.

Not sure what is being said here. Zod, are you confirming that there are no FTAs between the UK and the rest of the Commonwealth as has been stated? Are you also confirming that the UK cannot make such deals whilst in the EU as has been stated?

Or are you simply saying there is no need because the EU has it all in hand (sort of, ish, maybe) which wasn't the point being made?

[SeeFive]

lostkiwi said:

Totally agree.
I've mentioned about the lack of a plan and how we are effectively being asked if we want to jump off a cliff in the hope the water is deep enough to soften the landing but as usual just get smart answers and no substance.
The levels of unknowns in a Brexit are enormous.

Nah. We are just being asked if we want to be in the very different position going forward to make our own decision with limited external, unelected interference on whether to dredge it or not and make it a popular place for our own people to jump from safely in future.

[Zod]

Jockman said:

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 14th June 09:00

ignorance is bliss, eh?

There are already FTAs in force between the EU and 18 of the 50 Commonwealth states (36% of the remaining Commonwealth). The EU has agreed FTAs with 14 of the other countries (28%), subject only to completing the ratification process. It is negotiating or about to start negotiating FTAs with a further 13 states (26%). That leaves only 5 Commonwealth states (10% of the non-EU total) that the EU is not planning FTA talks with.

Not sure what is being said here. Zod, are you confirming that there are no FTAs between the UK and the rest of the Commonwealth as has been stated? Are you also confirming that the UK cannot make such deals whilst in the EU as has been stated?

Or are you simply saying there is no need because the EU has it all in hand (sort of, ish, maybe) which wasn't the point being made?

I'm confused that you are confused. We are (at the moment) in the EU. The EU has active FTAs with 18 Commonwealth countries, finalised FTAs with 14, negotiations underway with 13 and nothing with the final five. The idea that we cannot trade with the Commonwealth because we are in the EU is utter nonsense.

[Jockman]

Zod said:

Jockman said:

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 14th June 09:00

ignorance is bliss, eh?

There are already FTAs in force between the EU and 18 of the 50 Commonwealth states (36% of the remaining Commonwealth). The EU has agreed FTAs with 14 of the other countries (28%), subject only to completing the ratification process. It is negotiating or about to start negotiating FTAs with a further 13 states (26%). That leaves only 5 Commonwealth states (10% of the non-EU total) that the EU is not planning FTA talks with.

Not sure what is being said here. Zod, are you confirming that there are no FTAs between the UK and the rest of the Commonwealth as has been stated? Are you also confirming that the UK cannot make such deals whilst in the EU as has been stated?

Or are you simply saying there is no need because the EU has it all in hand (sort of, ish, maybe) which wasn't the point being made?

I'm confused that you are confused. We are (at the moment) in the EU. The EU has active FTAs with 18 Commonwealth countries, finalised FTAs with 14, negotiations underway with 13 and nothing with the final five. The idea that we cannot trade with the Commonwealth because we are in the EU is utter nonsense.

That idea I agree is utter nonsense mon ami. I just don't see who is proposing it.

[Zod]

Jockman said:

Zod said:

Jockman said:

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

Edited by Pan Pan Pan on Tuesday 14th June 09:00

ignorance is bliss, eh?

There are already FTAs in force between the EU and 18 of the 50 Commonwealth states (36% of the remaining Commonwealth). The EU has agreed FTAs with 14 of the other countries (28%), subject only to completing the ratification process. It is negotiating or about to start negotiating FTAs with a further 13 states (26%). That leaves only 5 Commonwealth states (10% of the non-EU total) that the EU is not planning FTA talks with.

Not sure what is being said here. Zod, are you confirming that there are no FTAs between the UK and the rest of the Commonwealth as has been stated? Are you also confirming that the UK cannot make such deals whilst in the EU as has been stated?

Or are you simply saying there is no need because the EU has it all in hand (sort of, ish, maybe) which wasn't the point being made?

I'm confused that you are confused. We are (at the moment) in the EU. The EU has active FTAs with 18 Commonwealth countries, finalised FTAs with 14, negotiations underway with 13 and nothing with the final five. The idea that we cannot trade with the Commonwealth because we are in the EU is utter nonsense.

That idea I agree is utter nonsense mon ami. I just don't see who is proposing it.

PPP.

[stongle]

CrutyRammers said:

Yeah, because, sod democracy, it's all about the money, right?

Pretty much. Most people vote with their pockets; the Brexit debate has done nothing but increase partisan politics. This in turn will return weaker governments (making it more difficult to pass reforming legislation).

Pan Pan Pan said:

How about starting trading again with former common wealth countries, and others that we are not allowed to make trade deals with whilst we were in the EU?

And what do you think will happen to these countries and BRICs when the Fed starts hiking / returns to a "normal" interest rate policy. 3, 5, 10 years of recession? - how many Range Rovers will Brazil be buying if no one can f**king eat? (upside, we might export a lot of water cannons though). This could be a generational issue. If you don't understand macro economics; you ought not be voting.

This is a poorly timed spectacle, given highly fragile global economics & cycle. Its actually now a decision between a seat at the table to (positively influence) events or the abyss.

And for the record, my heart favours leave and self determination. Head says its simply not practical, given Global events / economy and the poor state of UK politics.

Edited by stongle on Tuesday 14th June 11:19

[andy_s]

CrutyRammers said:

stongle said:

We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).

Yeah, because, sod democracy, it's all about the money, right?

He's got a point, The Scum & The Wail are the largest selling papers, says something about the general populace...

And it's your money too don't forget.

-

I don't think either way it goes will mean utter disaster, that's just the various proponents sexing up their respective dossiers.

The problem is ourselves, a lot of people think the UK is like Hobbiton and getting out of the EU will be like freeing ourselves from our dark overlords and stopping 'nasty foreigners' coming over here and stealing our jobs. Truth is we should have told the EU to fk off a bit more often and no one comes here to steal jobs, the jobs go to those competent and willing to work so 'nasty foreigners' just end up doing everything we either consider below ourselves or are too idle to do anyway as we're too busy ranting and reading the Scum.

If we leave, I hope that we are quick to adapt to the new circumstances - remember it's not survival of the fittest but survival of those quickest to adapt - and use them to our best advantage.
Unfortunately it's obvious that despite this issue lurking in the background for years no one has anything cogent to offer as a plan - just like the Scottish referendum - and given the dearth of visionary leaders and the general unambitious, self-serving malaise of the political set I don't expect anything too bright or beneficial any time soon.

We are always quick to complain and point the finger, but hardly ever at ourselves.