Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan

[kurt535]

Dr Jekyll said:

kurt535 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

kurt535 said:

Rhetoric works when you can trust the companies and workforce.

I have no doubt a lot of companies will relocate out of uk due to higher costs of being other side of the EU fence. Economically, why wouldn't they? Right now, my eldest is being asked how it affects their future. I said look to work abroad...game changer when Leave win next week. If I was younger, I'd happily look at NZ, Oz, Canada...

If you said France Germany or Greece that would at least be consistent. But none of the countries you list are in any rush to joint the EU so what's the advantage?

Sorry don't get your point? Its probably me being thick. But, my feeling is cost of borrowing, wages, availability of staff will see companies migrate/close shop. Also just seen this which is kind of inevitable too.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36548460

You think leaving the EU will mean disaster, but you can solve the problem not by moving to a country remaining in the EU, but to a country that isn't in the EU.
Why not move to France if you think the EU is so great?

I haven't used the word disaster; I'm more rational in my thoughts? I do feel the rise of the populist right both in the UK and Europe will damage my children's chances, especially in the UK on the back of a leave vote. i base this off all available economic fundamentals and what the markets are currently shorting. I really really hope I am wrong but would be far happier seeing my children a long way away from our country's ills.

[Murph7355]

kurt535 said:

I think he may have hoped for a stronger global economy. Right now the vote is taking places in the middle of gathering global financial storm clouds!

I totally agree with you on the global storm gathering. My view is that trying to unpick and determine what of that was Brexit related will be (and is) nigh on impossible. The sh*t's going to hit the fan no matter what we decide to do next week. Will Brexit make a material difference to that? Impossible to say, only to hypothesise.

My view - we need as much flexibility as we can muster. And being shackled to the EU at this stage with those growing storm clouds is not wise. There are too many basket case nations in the EU now, too many fundamental issues with the way it's run and there's way too much of an undercurrent against the leadership growing across Europe. This is another "Euro" moment we have in front if us with the cognoscenti screaming we must join, only for history to say something somewhat different.

Mrr T said:

While I have little time for BG we must recognise the public has little time for cutting the government teat. Look at working family tax credit we all know it distorts the market and is very expensive to maintain but when BG tried to cut it his own party would not support him.

Agree with this too. I had a lot of sympathy for him in the run up to the general election. I thought he (and to be fair, I think Danny Alexander etc also played his part) did a good job in difficult circumstances/ I voted for them in 2015.

Since then, they've won a majority and are still buckling to implement meaningful reform on our own shores. With a majority they should have been able to find ways of sorting that out - he may be many things, but I do not believe BG is stupid. My sympathy was therefore running out.

Then he opens his mouth as he has on the Remain campaign. All respect and sympathy is well and truly dried up now. He's proving hugely ineffectual in everything he's been doing since the general election, and I no longer trust/believe anything he says. If he told me today was Thursday I'd get a calendar to check it.

[hornet]

don4l said:

Derek Smith said:

hornet said:

Free movement of people is one of the key principles of the EEA agreement. If we wish to retain access to the single market in a post-Brexit world, I don't see any evidence to suggest we wouldn't have to accept it. Joining EFTA would see control over agriculture and fisheries, but freedom of movement is still required for an EFTA member to participate in the EEA.

If we went the non-EFTA bilateral route, what evidence is there to suggest we wouldn't be subject to the same requirements as Switzerland? Treaties in their two bilateral treaty tranches are deemed mutually dependent and subject to a "guillotine clause". They have no power to pick and choose the terms of their access, and I don't see how using that to infer a likely outcome of possible EU/UK trade deals can be considered either nonsense or discredited? I don't understand where this confidence comes from that we can just rock up to negotiations, pick and choose what we want and expect to get our way without every other signatory saying "um, hang on, why do they get preferential treatment?".

I don't see how any of the above can be considered nonsense or scaremongering, given it's based on precedent (Swiss situation) and the foundational principles of the internal market agreement we're apparently just going to rock up to and partially circumvent without any other member states kicking up a stink?!

If you stick your fingers in your ears and hum loudly all these problems will disappear.

We will be dictated to. There is a majority in parliament to remain in the EU. If there is an exit then the closest thing to it will have a lot of pressure behind it. The EU will be pushing at an open door.

What problems?

Seriously.

The absolute worst case scenario is that we trade with the EU under the WTO rules. Currently, 56% of our exports take place under this system. Why on Earth do you fear it so much?

We would lose access to the "Free Circulation" principle. Excise goods would no longer be able to travel under suspension throughout the EU, the liability would instead be payable on exit of the UK. That increases costs, if only through the additional administration involved. The flip side is goods traveling from the UK into the EU would move to "non-preferential origin" status. They would still need to comply with EU legislation (Community Customs Code), over which we'd have no influence as a Third Country, plus would become subject to import duties. That would indeed be based on WTO guidelines, to which the CCC is harmonised, but it would mean costs on import where previously there were none, which would make our goods less desirable to EU buyers, who would likely apply pressure to UK vendors to reduce costs. That could impact on UK jobs.

There's no reason to believe we wouldn't negotiate an FTA with the EU, but that wouldn't be the work of a moment and is something that really ought to be mapped out ahead of a vote. We would revert to Third Country status in the interim and there's no guarantee concensus would be reached over the most contentious issues. There may well be an agreeable resolution, but it would introduce considerable uncertainty in the mean time. It's not unreasonable to imagine companies with large EU trade and no UK-specific resource requirement would look at that and conclude it would be far simpler to relocate into EEA territory (EU/EFTA), rather than remain until negotiations were concluded. It's not an irrational position to adopt and not scaremongering to suggest it's a consideration.

[don4l]

kurt535 said:

I haven't used the word disaster; I'm more rational in my thoughts? I do feel the rise of the populist right both in the UK and Europe will damage my children's chances, especially in the UK on the back of a leave vote. i base this off all available economic fundamentals and what the markets are currently shorting. I really really hope I am wrong but would be far happier seeing my children a long way away from our country's ills.

I agree that we are seeing a resurgance of the right.

I also do not think that anything can be done to stop it. It is the backlash to the leftward shift of the centre ground in the political landscape.

This topic is worthy of a thread in its own right.

[Digga]

don4l said:

kurt535 said:

I haven't used the word disaster; I'm more rational in my thoughts? I do feel the rise of the populist right both in the UK and Europe will damage my children's chances, especially in the UK on the back of a leave vote. i base this off all available economic fundamentals and what the markets are currently shorting. I really really hope I am wrong but would be far happier seeing my children a long way away from our country's ills.

I agree that we are seeing a resurgance of the right.

I also do not think that anything can be done to stop it. It is the backlash to the leftward shift of the centre ground in the political landscape.

This topic is worthy of a thread in its own right.

By no means restricted to the UK.

The hard right are, unfortunately, always about, but it is a fairly well documented fact that in times of austerity or where the actions of the political elite are too far adrift from the wishes of the majority, that extreme parties are better able to attract support.

[stongle]

Tbh, if leave had come out and said as a hedge to anything remotely nasty happening or the "it's alright, alright, everything's go a be alright" & they would reintroduce national service and invade Greenland they might have more integrity and respect. Instead it's BAU, Andrea Leadstrum says Carney's latest comments risked financial stability... GBP down on uncertainty, BOE comes out and observes this fact; but typical leave interprets as a precursor event or yet more conspiracy.

Markets move by sentiment (or pesky algos), no ones going to wait for these treaties to become law. Instability is bad, it creates volitility; which in turn pushes up the cost of money. I can't be bothered to explain Reg CVA, or market risk adjustments, impact of IFRS 9 on bad loans (it backs up Kurt535's observation on cost of money, risk). Just look it up.

Edited by stongle on Thursday 16th June 16:57

[kurt535]

stongle said:

Tbh, if leave had come out and said as a hedge to anything remotely nasty happening or the "it's alright, alright, everything's go a be alright" & they would reintroduce national service and invade Greenland they might have more integrity and respect. Instead it's BAU, Andrea Leadstrum says Carney's latest comments risked financial stability... GBP down on uncertainty, BOE comes out and observes this fact; but typical leave interprets as a precursor event or yet more conspiracy.

Markets move by sentiment (or pesky algos), no ones going to wait for these treaties to become law. Instability is bad, it creates volitility; which in turn pushes up the cost of money. I can't be bothered to explain Reg CVA, or market risk adjustments, impact of IFRS 9 on bad loans (it backs up Kurt535's observation on cost of money, risk). Just look it up.

Edited by stongle on Thursday 16th June 16:57

Clearing houses have been raising their margin calls over the last few days; why you would go into this vote with a position is beyond me. The fact open positions exist means they are too big to unwind but subject to stops on big downside moves. More economic risk!

[tarnished]

ralphrj said:

People seem to forget that the remaining 27 countries of the EU combined have a much larger economy (5 to 6 times larger) than the UK alone.

I thought that was an great stat and quite surprising; that the 27 countries of the EU combined would only be as little as 5-6 times larger than the UK. Taken me a few days to get around to looking up some numbers but Wikipedia tells me nominal 2015 GDP values are:

EU - US$16.220 trillion
UK - US$2.849 trillion

By that measure I'd suggest the rest of the EU is about 4.7x larger than the UK. Which seems a remarkably poor effort for 27 varied countries, is there something I'm missing?

[Zod]

tarnished said:

ralphrj said:

People seem to forget that the remaining 27 countries of the EU combined have a much larger economy (5 to 6 times larger) than the UK alone.

I thought that was an great stat and quite surprising; that the 27 countries of the EU combined would only be as little as 5-6 times larger than the UK. Taken me a few days to get around to looking up some numbers but Wikipedia tells me nominal 2015 GDP values are:

EU - US$16.220 trillion
UK - US$2.849 trillion

By that measure I'd suggest the rest of the EU is about 4.7x larger than the UK. Which seems a remarkably poor effort for 27 varied countries, is there something I'm missing?

That's an utterly meaningless statement, unless you look at GDP per capita.

[tarnished]

So the EU won't be applying pressure on the UK because of the size of the market, just based on the GDP per capita?

[Zod]

tarnished said:

So the EU won't be applying pressure on the UK because of the size of the market, just based on the GDP per capita?

I don't understand your point. Both figures matter. Total GDP matters as a measure of our importance to the UK as a whole.

Instead of scorning the other 27 for not collectively adding up to a higher multiple of the UK's GDP, you need to look at GDP per capita,.

[stongle]

kurt535 said:

Clearing houses have been raising their margin calls over the last few days; why you would go into this vote with a position is beyond me. The fact open positions exist means they are too big to unwind but subject to stops on big downside moves. More economic risk!

That's the problem with CLearing Houses and CCPs, got their hands in your pocket like your wife but no spending limit.

Today's market moves really interesting, volitility is nuts. It's completely mental, but I'm looking at magic beans (sorry Bitcoin and ether) as a GBP hedge currently. BTC is trading around $730 and Ether broke $20.

[kurt535]

Bitcoins...forgot about that hedge....58-54 p/s for me on monday via City Index....

IMF weighed in today I see.

[Jockman]

kurt535 said:

Bitcoins...forgot about that hedge....58-54 p/s for me on monday via City Index....

IMF weighed in today I see.

Kurt wasn't the IMF report a routine one just a bit badly timed? IIRC when they issued their last report they were due to give their update the week before the referendum purely by coincidence?

[RobDickinson]

Zod said:

Instead of scorning the other 27 for not collectively adding up to a higher multiple of the UK's GDP, you need to look at GDP per capita,.

Well for a comparison of size of economies we really sholdnt care how many people are there but..

EU - US$16.220 trillion
UK - US$2.849 trillion


EU population 508 million
UK population 64 million

EU population without UK = 444 million

EU GDP per capita = $36
UK GDP per capita = $44

So 1/3rd more effective...

[RobDickinson]

Made a mistake there I forgot to remove UK's GDP from EU's, so EU is even worse...

[kurt535]

D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.

[Einion Yrth]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling.
It's been 3 days. Market volatility is to have been expected. Get a grip FFS.

[phil-sti]

kurt535 said:

D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.

It's ok we can just have a cup of tea.

[fizz47]

kurt535 said:

D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.

Your list is hilarious ... With some BS and cherry picking thrown in...


As for the economic plan - that's upto to those in power (eg the cabinet et al)to start sorting out except they never thought it would happen and are now throwing their toys out of the pram or burying their heads in the sand ...