Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan
Discussion
kurt535 said:
back on topic....flight to german bunds at the expense of buying uk gilts.......it is, whatever way you look at it, a vote of economic no confidence in uk.....
so, whats the leave camp's answer to calming exit concerns?
You can't fight the markets. if anything, that flight is a done deal and possibly reflects a greater likelihood of Brexit. There is no saying there will be an ongoing flight, merely that Brexit is now priced in.so, whats the leave camp's answer to calming exit concerns?
Jockman said:
PositronicRay said:
Jockman said:
Derek Smith said:
There is a follow-on from an exit which a friend of my wife brought up a few days ago, based somewhat on the lack of plan for an exit.
The exit will mean that Cameron will probably resign earlier than he intended and a replacement hurried into position. When I suggested it might be Johnson she shook her head. However, during the next two years the economy is likely to suffer. With uncertainty, as someone else mentioned, goes a drop in spending and with a drop in spending goes lower profits. With lower profits go fewer jobs and with fewer jobs we get less spending, etc.
When the next election arrives there will be a certain degree of resentment generated and, as she says, blame will have to be apportioned.
Will the tories, with their new leader, be the recipient of the blame? After all some of the exit lies will be revealed and all moans that the others lied as well will be of no importance.
She is one of the most knowledgeable people I know on politics and it was said somewhat tongue in cheek, but the logic makes one a little cold.
The unelectable suddenly becoming acceptable as an alternative.
Still, no matter. Everything will be rosy on leaving. Everyone will have lots more money, they will be giving houses away, and not in the sense of Thatcher's right to buy, and the new national sport will be maypole dancing.
That and the new socialist empire of Corbyn.
Take a look between your legs, Derek. If there's nothing there then you need to grow a pair. Your wife will love you more for it. The exit will mean that Cameron will probably resign earlier than he intended and a replacement hurried into position. When I suggested it might be Johnson she shook her head. However, during the next two years the economy is likely to suffer. With uncertainty, as someone else mentioned, goes a drop in spending and with a drop in spending goes lower profits. With lower profits go fewer jobs and with fewer jobs we get less spending, etc.
When the next election arrives there will be a certain degree of resentment generated and, as she says, blame will have to be apportioned.
Will the tories, with their new leader, be the recipient of the blame? After all some of the exit lies will be revealed and all moans that the others lied as well will be of no importance.
She is one of the most knowledgeable people I know on politics and it was said somewhat tongue in cheek, but the logic makes one a little cold.
The unelectable suddenly becoming acceptable as an alternative.
Still, no matter. Everything will be rosy on leaving. Everyone will have lots more money, they will be giving houses away, and not in the sense of Thatcher's right to buy, and the new national sport will be maypole dancing.
That and the new socialist empire of Corbyn.
ks 
Cmon...creating a causal link between brexit and a Corbyn socialist state would stretch even my testes !!
I can see that, political turmoil, Conservative party in disarray.
The best we could hope for is a hung parliament, maybe even 3 parties. How decisive is this going to be.
Jockman said:
bks
Cmon...creating a causal link between brexit and a Corbyn socialist state would stretch even my testes !!
Out of curiosity, why do you think it couldn't happen?ks Cmon...creating a causal link between brexit and a Corbyn socialist state would stretch even my testes !!
If Brexit happens it is unlikely to be smooth, plain sailing. There will be at the very minimum short term damage to the economy just from the uncertainty. This will impact living standards and voters tend to notice that.
Labours share of the vote post-1945 has never dropped below 27.5%. It is safe to assume that these are the ones who will always vote Labour. 2005 showed that they need only 35.5% to form a Government. Therefore only 8% of the electorate need to have the view that it is time for someone else to govern and you will have a far-left Government in the UK.
ralphrj said:
2005 showed that they need only 35.5% to form a Government. Therefore only 8% of the electorate need to have the view that it is time for someone else to govern and you will have a far-left Government in the UK.
That was before the UKIP became the third party who for political reasons would never side with Labour.PositronicRay said:
Jockman said:
PositronicRay said:
Jockman said:
Derek Smith said:
There is a follow-on from an exit which a friend of my wife brought up a few days ago, based somewhat on the lack of plan for an exit.
The exit will mean that Cameron will probably resign earlier than he intended and a replacement hurried into position. When I suggested it might be Johnson she shook her head. However, during the next two years the economy is likely to suffer. With uncertainty, as someone else mentioned, goes a drop in spending and with a drop in spending goes lower profits. With lower profits go fewer jobs and with fewer jobs we get less spending, etc.
When the next election arrives there will be a certain degree of resentment generated and, as she says, blame will have to be apportioned.
Will the tories, with their new leader, be the recipient of the blame? After all some of the exit lies will be revealed and all moans that the others lied as well will be of no importance.
She is one of the most knowledgeable people I know on politics and it was said somewhat tongue in cheek, but the logic makes one a little cold.
The unelectable suddenly becoming acceptable as an alternative.
Still, no matter. Everything will be rosy on leaving. Everyone will have lots more money, they will be giving houses away, and not in the sense of Thatcher's right to buy, and the new national sport will be maypole dancing.
That and the new socialist empire of Corbyn.
Take a look between your legs, Derek. If there's nothing there then you need to grow a pair. Your wife will love you more for it. The exit will mean that Cameron will probably resign earlier than he intended and a replacement hurried into position. When I suggested it might be Johnson she shook her head. However, during the next two years the economy is likely to suffer. With uncertainty, as someone else mentioned, goes a drop in spending and with a drop in spending goes lower profits. With lower profits go fewer jobs and with fewer jobs we get less spending, etc.
When the next election arrives there will be a certain degree of resentment generated and, as she says, blame will have to be apportioned.
Will the tories, with their new leader, be the recipient of the blame? After all some of the exit lies will be revealed and all moans that the others lied as well will be of no importance.
She is one of the most knowledgeable people I know on politics and it was said somewhat tongue in cheek, but the logic makes one a little cold.
The unelectable suddenly becoming acceptable as an alternative.
Still, no matter. Everything will be rosy on leaving. Everyone will have lots more money, they will be giving houses away, and not in the sense of Thatcher's right to buy, and the new national sport will be maypole dancing.
That and the new socialist empire of Corbyn.
ks Cmon...creating a causal link between brexit and a Corbyn socialist state would stretch even my testes !!
I can see that, political turmoil, Conservative party in disarray.
The best we could hope for is a hung parliament, maybe even 3 parties. How decisive is this going to be.
PositronicRay said:
Constructive.
I can see that, political turmoil, Conservative party in disarray.
The best we could hope for is a hung parliament, maybe even 3 parties. How decisive is this going to be.
History shows that the electorate is fickle. Most floating voters wander from mob to mob on the hope as to which will manage the economy the better. If we struggle financially on exit and the problems are not sorted by 2020 . . . ?I can see that, political turmoil, Conservative party in disarray.
The best we could hope for is a hung parliament, maybe even 3 parties. How decisive is this going to be.
Whistling happy tunes is not really a good way to refute it.
fido said:
That was before the UKIP became the third party who for political reasons would never side with Labour.
I think you will find that many left voters went to the UKIP. In fact it was reported as so on these threads. Further, the main base of the UKIP was how brilliant everything will be on exit. If that is shown to be a lie then will the left-leaning UKIP voters stay?
I don't know. Nor does anyone.
don4l said:
Jockman said:
Just found another bit in the same article about negative German bonds...
..... It reflects the persistent failure of the eurozone to generate a really convincing recovery from the financial crisis.
Exactly. The investors clearly think that the German stock markets are not going to do well in the next few years...... It reflects the persistent failure of the eurozone to generate a really convincing recovery from the financial crisis.
kurt535 said:
back on topic....flight to german bunds at the expense of buying uk gilts.......it is, whatever way you look at it, a vote of economic no confidence in uk.....
so, whats the leave camp's answer to calming exit concerns?
Personally, I wouldn't do anything about it. The various markets will always react however they want and are always likely to go into panic mode when there's any uncertainty. Once the decision to leave is confirmed it will be for the country to pull together and show the world how we can trade quite capably without the EU.so, whats the leave camp's answer to calming exit concerns?
Greg66 said:
IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess.
Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.
Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.
R4 commentator this morning was talking about interest rate cuts in event of Leave.Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.
Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.
Go figure.
Has anyone considered that a Brexit is worse for the EU than it is for us? We are one of the largest countries in the EU, with one of the highest GDP per capita. We have relatively low unemployment in comparison with the likes of Greece and Spain and still have a great amount of natural resources. We are not some tin pot country with no financial clout. Theres 65 million of us spending money on foreign goods and travel.
Chicken Chaser said:
Has anyone considered that a Brexit is worse for the EU than it is for us? We are one of the largest countries in the EU, with one of the highest GDP per capita. We have relatively low unemployment in comparison with the likes of Greece and Spain and still have a great amount of natural resources. We are not some tin pot country with no financial clout. Theres 65 million of us spending money on foreign goods and travel.
A Brexit would almost certainly be bad for the rest of the EU in its current format. And this is one reason that Remain believe we'll get nailed when trying to negotiate trade deals following a Leave. I can see that point of view, but would suggest that I think it would be important for the whole of the EU to avoid damaging the UK as an export market, and also that it would be symbolic of where the EU's priorities really lie (ie certainly not with our interests at heart...nor those of the poorer states within it in the cold light of day).
Chicken Chaser said:
Has anyone considered that a Brexit is worse for the EU than it is for us? We are one of the largest countries in the EU, with one of the highest GDP per capita. We have relatively low unemployment in comparison with the likes of Greece and Spain and still have a great amount of natural resources. We are not some tin pot country with no financial clout. Theres 65 million of us spending money on foreign goods and travel.
Not sure I'd say we had one of the highest GDPs in the EU. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_...
Murph7355 said:
one reason that Remain believe we'll get nailed when trying to negotiate trade deals following a Leave.
The reason you will get nailed on trade negotiations is the same reason you got nailed on negotiations over the EU extra payment, spineless politicians, the reason brexit exists.Mario149 said:
This thread is very telling. Someone who voted Leave from a heart PoV is asking what the economic plan is and the 70-odd percent of Brexit supporters on PH can't give any half decent answer.
Trust in our wonderful Government and advisors to have a plan, if they haven't quite got that sorted then I guess we may need a snap General ElectionGassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff