Labour MP Jo Cox Shot

[Vaud]

An awful, brutal murder but a false correlation to the vote outcome I think.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

It was certainly presented at the time as proof that the Leave vote was a toxic pool of violent right wing extremism. I put that down to the Remain campaign's desperation in the final days of the campaign but I don't think it influenced many people.

[Bullett]

My recollection was that the majority of polls were saying remain to win.

[Hosenbugler]

I recall seeing a graph that showed the vote was approx 55/45 in favour of leave , but then it narrowed on the event of her murder. It could be coincidence , but if i were a betting man , I'd bet on it not being so.

[rscott]

JPJPJP said:

Andrew Lilico on Twitter

It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/ doesn't seem to show a 10% lead?

[Wobbegong]

The murder was certainly used to the max by team Remain, and perhaps it did take some votes from the Leave side. However I don’t remember anywhere predicting a Leave win or suggesting they were ahead?

Probably not the best tweet to make considering the mental fragility and faux outrage of Twitter users, he’s certainly poked the nest

[Jonesy23]

The Twitter outrage was of course completely predictable. Back in the real world no one will notice.

[RJG46]

rscott said:

JPJPJP said:

Andrew Lilico on Twitter

It's impossible to avoid the thought that that 4-6% margin that the murder of Jo Cox cost the Leave vote in 2016 has had a profound impact on politics. (Leave was 10% ahead & rising, before her horrific murder.) One of the most influential assassinations in British history.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/107320095...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/ doesn't seem to show a 10% lead?

No, polls mostly showed a win for Remain.

[Amateurish]

He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...

[anonymous-user]

Funny thing that I seem to remember some of the pious types giving lectures on here too
One pro upset type wished the whole business over with for the divisions it caused
Hasn't stopped him banging on about it since mind

[JagLover]

Amateurish said:

He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...

I think the problem for the pollsters was that many unengaged with politics came out to vote in the referendum. The raw data would (likely) have been adjusted for like-hood to vote so the pollsters systematically underestimated Leave support.

I vaguely recall there was a study that corrected for this and found the Cox murder moved voters from Leave to Remain by a couple of percentage points.

[B'stard Child]

JagLover said:

Amateurish said:

He seems like a troll, but the polls do seem to bear out the fact that there was a noticeable shift to remain:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...

I think the problem for the pollsters was that many unengaged with politics came out to vote in the referendum. The raw data would (likely) have been adjusted for like-hood to vote so the pollsters systematically underestimated Leave support.

I vaguely recall there was a study that corrected for this and found the Cox murder moved voters from Leave to Remain by a couple of percentage points.