Results

[kurt535]

mondeoman said:

For all of you predicting the end of the world, here's a little tip.

You are perfectly placed to make an absolute killing on the stock market and exchange markets, because only you know whats going to happen in the future, so I hope to see ALL of you on here next week, boasting of the killing you've made putting your money where your mouth is and how your retirement is going.

Me, I'm going back to work as normal.

sad to say i spent last week hedging on a leave vote in the markets to offset predicted falls. most unwanted money i have ever made in the markets. sadly, mondeoman, i fear you are right about tomorrow's falls too.

[s2art]

AmitG said:

Agree, I think a lot of the hysteria at the moment is driven by the fact that there are no updates coming from the government, and frankly nobody seems to be in charge.

• Cameron made a resignation speech and then seemed to go quiet
• Osborne is still nowhere to be seen
• Boris - one short speech, then silence
• Gove - almost nothing
• May - nothing

If somebody senior in the government - anybody - would step forward and say

• This is the current situation
• These are the things we know, and the things we don't know
• This is what we are currently working on
• This is what we are proposing to do over the next few days/weeks

...then things would calm down. As it is, there is no information whatsoever, so everyone is speculating, and people are focussing on negative outcomes, which is human nature.

Maybe the government silence is because it's a weekend. But I suspect it's mainly because nobody wants to step forward, nobody is sure who is actually in charge now, and despite a Leave vote being a clear possibility for weeks, there isn't a plan.

I find this very scary - much more so than the actual result, which I am fine with.

I think you will find that most of them are heavily involved in leadership issues/discussions/plots. Cameron even, but also maybe Cameron is completely shattered. Give him a break.

[schmalex]

wc98 said:

schmalex said:

Oh. And don't forget no more little brown people, talking funny languages...

FFS. We've voted ourselves back to the dark ages by, seemingly, a heady mixture of ignorance, profound mid-selling and blind optimism.

Edited by schmalex on Sunday 26th June 19:46

oh i hope not, would not like to see my younger brother, sister and my step mother have to go "back where they came from" if that is what you mean. would only have to be step mother as my siblings were born here so i suppose i i get to keep two out of three that wouldn't be so bad .

seriously schmalex, come back and read what you just posted in a few years time , you will see how daft it sounds in less politically charged times.

Hang on a mo. Read what I wrote further on - this was what was told to me. It is absolutely not my belief

This was the reason that someone gave me for why they voted out of Europe; to keep blacks and Muslims out of our country. There followed a heated debate where I spent the best part of an hour trying to extol the benefits of a multi-racial, inclusive society, where I was generally shouted down for wanted to let anyone in.

The sad fact is that the vote Leave campaign allowed MANY people to identify with their anti-immigration stance in the mistaken belief that banning freedom of movement and not helping those in need is a good thing

[Robertj21a]

KTF said:

I thought the price of that had st the bed?

Precisely. The query was 'why can't Scotland stand alone ?'.

[sidicks]

schmalex said:

The sad fact is that the vote Leave campaign allowed MANY people to identify with their anti-immigration stance in the mistaken belief that banning freedom of movement and not helping those in need is a good thing

It is not clear that banning freedom of movement is not a good thing - this has nothing to do with race or colour.

And what has 'helping those in need' got to do with the referendum?

[schmalex]

Precisely. These particular people are totally unable to differentiate between EU freedom of movement and the immigration of people from outside of the EU. They just see the word "immigrant" and think "great. No more funny coloured people"...

Their whole exit vote was based on that

[sidicks]

schmalex said:

Precisely. These particular people are totally unable to differentiate between EU freedom of movement and the immigration of people from outside of the EU. They just see the word "immigrant" and think "great. No more funny coloured people"...

Their whole exit vote was based on that

I think you miss the point. In more ways than one!

[Mario149]

Einion Yrth said:

Mario149 said:

EY, the problem is for some people it has already, and probably will continue to do so to a greater or lesser extent for the next few years. See TannedBaldHead on the 2nd Referendum Please thread. As i said in another post, it's one thing to vote Leave knowing that you may be out of pocket, it's quite another to then be presented with it as fact by your employer the day after the result as a direct consequence of your choice.

Yes Mario, but the economy isn't fcked, yet, and may not be ever. We're undoubtedly in for some bad times before we get it turned around, but it's hardly the first time we've been there. I have a great deal of sympathy for those immediately impacted by the current state of play, as they say I've been rich and I've been poor, and rich is better. We are an incredibly inventive people, we gave the world the industrial revolution, we brought forth more Nobel prize winners than any other nation bar one. We'll be fine, we just have to get over a bit of a bump in the road first, and as I say I'm not in anyway unsympathetic to those whose bump will be more onerous than others, I've been there and I know it stinks, but we will come back stronger.

I admire your optimism, but it's playing fast and loose with real people. People are going to lose their jobs in the near term through uncertainty, people are going to lose their businesses. For some people, ironically the elder generation, that might be it and they might not be able to get another job. And on top of that their pensions may get shafted. Damage will be done that cannot be undone, and saying it may be wonderful in 5-10 years is not going to fix that. You can do a set of simple calcs to get a rough idea:

Example:

Scenario 1 - stay in EU and keep growing GDP at a respectable but not earth shattering 2.5% per annum, an average of the last two years I believe
Scenario 2 - leave EU, GDP still grows but by only 1% per year due to uncertainty for next 4 years until Brexit is complete and we're out in the world. After that, GDP growth suddenly jumps to 3.5% per annum as we're getting a better deal now everything is up and running.

Under that not completely unreasonable comparison, which only assumes a modest growth while in the EU and only a slow in growth (not a recession due to Brexit) the Brexit GDP only catches up with the Stay GDP at the *12th* year. That's 12 years of fighting from behind where we should be. 12 years of lower tax receipts funding our infrastructure which will need to be undone with more spending later. 12 years of more people out of work costing us more in benefits. And that doesn't even cover the human damage that perpetuates when things go a bit tits up.

That's one hell of a gamble to take with our future. Even if you run more optimistic examples the time taken to come good with Brexit is 8-10 years. And if you go the other way and throw in a year of self inflicted recession and one year of no growth following it and as a result assume it only takes an extra year to get to your 3.5% mark, that 12 years becomes 16 years.

Then think about how in the UK we average a recession every 10-15 due to general cock-ups and throw that into the mix where you see fit.

Any way you sensibly cut it, if we do Brexit, we'll be paying for it for quite a while. I don't think a lot of people fully appreciate the gamble we might be about to take and how long it could possibly take to come good. Those that do, I almost actually admire as they must be truly bloody dedicated to our particular brand of government/democracy.

Me and mine? We'll be fine whatever. I'll start sorting myself a German or Italian passport in the next few weeks as a backup for work and relocating if it really goes tits up, we can wipe off our mortgage within a few months if really need be and even if I only worked 50% of the time we'd be fine. We can ride out what may happen. But there will be many, many who wouldn't be able to.

Edited by Mario149 on Sunday 26th June 20:54

[Wadeski]

I have a feeling (as a Remainer....) that the side of the Tory party that is very pro-business and pro-City of London is starting to have some very serious discussions with the Eurosceptic side.

Whether the City of London is over-sized compared to the rest of the UK economy has been debated here, but any substantial knocks to it will have a huge effect on the economy, tax revenues, etc.

What kind of a knock? Look at the EU banking passport that our negotiations will revolve around. Since other EU countries would like a slice of our financial services business, and its all-but essential to us to maintain, we are not going in from a position of strength.

The whole "EU will punish us" is, as many Leavers have said, probably bluster - but don't think that the Germans, French, and even Irish won't take an opportunity to use the negotiations to win business back from us, and they hold (at least) one huge ace.

I also wonder whether the UK population will be ready to re-shape government spending to attract business - we can go for Irish corporation tax rates, but when that means massive cuts (or Irish rate VAT and personal income tax rates), will people pay the piper?

[London424]

Not sure if posted as a million threads running but interesting days ahead for the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-...

[sidicks]

Mario149 said:

I admire your optimism, but it's playing fast and loose with real people. People are going to lose their jobs in the near term through uncertainty, people are going to lose their businesses. For some people, ironically the elder generation, that might be it and they might not be able to get another job. And on top of that their pensions may get shafted. Damage will be done that cannot be undone, and saying it may be wonderful in 5-10 years is not going to fix that. You can do a set of simple calcs to get a rough idea:

Example:

Scenario 1 - stay in EU and keep growing GDP at a respectable but not earth shattering 2.5% per annum, an average of the last two years I believe
Scenario 2 - leave EU, GDP still grows but by only 1% per year due to uncertainty for next 4 years until Brexit is complete and we're out in the world. After that, GDP growth suddenly jumps to 3.5% per annum as we're getting a better deal now everything is up and running.

Under that not completely unreasonable comparison, which only assumes a modest growth while in the EU and only a slow in growth (not a recession due to Brexit) the Brexit GDP only catches up with the Stay GDP at the *12th* year. That's 12 years of fighting from behind where we should be. 12 years of lower tax receipts funding our infrastructure which will need to be undone with more spending later. 12 years of more people out of work costing us more in benefits. And that doesn't even cover the human damage that perpetuates when things go a bit tits up.

That's one hell of a gamble to take with our future. Even if you run more optimistic examples the time taken to come good with Brexit is 8-10 years. And if you go the other way and throw in a year of self inflicted recession and one year of no growth following it and as a result assume it only takes an extra year to get to your 3.5% mark, that 12 years becomes 16 years.

Then think about how in the UK we average a recession every 10-15 due to general cock-ups and throw that into the mix where you see fit.

Any way you sensibly cut it, if we do Brexit, we'll be paying for it for quite a while. I don't think a lot of people fully appreciate the gamble we might be about to take and how long it could possibly come good. Those that do, I almost actually admire as they must be truly bloody dedicated to our particular brand of government/democracy.

Me and mine? We'll be fine whatever. I'll start sorting myself a German or Italian passport in the next few weeks as a backup for work and relocating if it really goes tits up, we can wipe off our mortgage within a few months if really need be and even if I only worked 50% of the time we'd be fine. We can ride out what may happen. But there will be many, many who wouldn't be able to.

You mean 'any way you cherry pick the figures'...

Edited by sidicks on Sunday 26th June 21:02

[HarryW]

Valid as your point may have been pre result it matters not a jot now. We've voted out and have to deal with it.

In some ways the scenario you've painted, whereas comparative improvement over staying will take 10years + to reap is poetic. There has been a fair bit of scorn put on the older generation for 'making' this happen, who in turn said it was for future generations. It seems by your sums they will only see the relative pain period, but those who follow on and have much more than 10 years + working lives left will be better off overall. A result, yes?

[Mario149]

sidicks said:

You mean 'anyway you cherry pick the figures'...

Okay, you pick some figures you think are reasonable, run the calcs and show us what you get. What numbers do you get given that even the leave campaign acknowledged we'd have to take a short term hit?

If only we had people who actually did these forecasts for a job who were able to tell us what they thought would likely happen before the whole vote took place. Various groups of non-politicians who could provide advice so an informed decision could be made. Shame there were none and we were all left to guess

[sidicks]

Mario149 said:

Okay, you pick some figures you think are reasonable, run the calcs and show us what you get. What numbers do you get given that even the leave campaign acknowledged we'd have to take a short term hit?

If only we had people who actually did these forecasts for a job who were able to tell us what they thought would likely happen before the whole vote took place. Various groups of non-politicians who could provide advice so an informed decision could be made. Shame there were none and we were all left to guess

Shame those figures were based on preposterous assumptions that the UK would act against it's own interests...

HTH

[Murph7355]

London424 said:

Not sure if posted as a million threads running but interesting days ahead for the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-...

Juncker is undoubtedly a weapons grade bellend, but hes not alone in the EU. Thinking that him standing down would change anything on its own is silly.

Maybe wider changes are possible though. Who knows.

[Jockman]

Mario149 said:

Okay, you pick some figures you think are reasonable, run the calcs and show us what you get. What numbers do you get given that even the leave campaign acknowledged we'd have to take a short term hit?

If only we had people who actually did these forecasts for a job who were able to tell us what they thought would likely happen before the whole vote took place. Various groups of non-politicians who could provide advice so an informed decision could be made. Shame there were none and we were all left to guess

Did not all of those groups input the same data and assumptions into the same NiGEM forecasting models?.........then arrive at the same conclusions?

Quelle surprise.

[Mario149]

HarryW said:

A result, yes?

Yes, if one makes the fairly massive assumption that all will in fact be milk and honey once we're completely extricated from the EU and that it always continues to be better than being in the EU.

It's somewhat ridiculous: I get shot down for predicting that, in line with virtually everyone including the Leave campaign, in the short and medium term we'll be less well off. But apparently the long term ramifications, where no one appears to have any real idea because they're long term, are a dead cert because it fits with the Brexit narrative and it had to be that way to make sense of the choice.

[sidicks]

Mario149 said:

Yes, if one makes the fairly massive assumption that all will in fact be milk and honey once we're completely extricated from the EU and that it always continues to be better than being in the EU.

Ignorant straw man nonsense

Mario149 said:

It's somewhat ridiculous: I get shot down for predicting that, in line with virtually everyone including the Leave campaign, in the short and medium term we'll be less well off. But apparently the long term ramifications, where no one appears to have any real idea because they're long term, are a dead cert because it fits with the Brexit narrative and it had to be that way to make sense of the choice.

More ignorant straw man nonsense!

[London424]

Murph7355 said:

London424 said:

Not sure if posted as a million threads running but interesting days ahead for the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-...

Juncker is undoubtedly a weapons grade bellend, but hes not alone in the EU. Thinking that him standing down would change anything on its own is silly.

Maybe wider changes are possible though. Who knows.

I think it's more the comments about the other countries and their thoughts on 'more integration'.

The cat really is amongst the pigeons now.

[plasticpig]

AmitG said:

Maybe the government silence is because it's a weekend. But I suspect it's mainly because nobody wants to step forward, nobody is sure who is actually in charge now, and despite a Leave vote being a clear possibility for weeks, there isn't a plan.

I find this very scary - much more so than the actual result, which I am fine with.

Cameron made it very clear early on that there was to be no government plan for an exit. So I don't know why you find it surprising. It's the main reason I voted remain. If the government had published a plan I might well have voted leave.