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[Camoradi]

Puggit said:

I suspect we import a lot more than Germany?

Correct. Which is part of the problem which needs addressing. We don't HAVE to buy an Audi/ VW / BMW etc

[JagLover]

405dogvan said:

He talked about how people from the UK would be able to continue to live and work and travel in the EU - any EEA-style deal would likely require that to work both ways?

He then talks about points systems - something I'm pretty sure the EU have absolutely ruled-out in the past and aren't likely to entertain now? I'm sure we've already asked for this and been slapped down??

Seems to me he's promising more than Cameron did (level of immigration control) and Cameron failed to deliver that (and was told it was impossible) - not sure exactly what the plan is here as nothing has changed in that respect (just because we want it more doesn't make it more likely to happen?)

Seems to me he is therefore giving the EU a choice. They either abandon their fetish for completely free movement of people (it has long been more than just workers) or we leave the single market.

They will no doubt not accept it, but he is showing that will be their choice and he wanted to stay in.

[walm]

Camoradi said:

walm said:

It makes things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.
Recessions are usually consumer-led.
The bank may be forced to lower rates to help the consumer out and then the pound will weaken further.
Repeat.

But surely that's on the basis that we can't change our economy to a different, more manufacturing and export led model.

It makes IMPORTED things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.

It will make British made products more attractive to overseas buyers.

If low currency rates work for Germany, why could they not work for us?

Mostly because we don't really make much, sadly.
Unlike Germany.

[turbobloke]

Asked whether he could serve in a government committed to leaving the EU, Osborne said: “It is my country right or wrong. And I intend to fulfil my responsibilities to the country.”

Arrogant little st gets it half wrong himself.

His country right or wrong...Wrong in his self-interested short-term view maybe.

He talks about waiting until the autumn and a new PM for a full statement, but he may be sacked at that time for calling it wrong and initially talking the country down. Gove may yet get his job so he wants to score points while he can, being an odious twerp has come naturally to him after some considerable success previously.

I thought Osborne was worth putting up with until the referendum campaign, at which point the facts changed and so did my view.

[tenfour]

turbobloke said:

Asked whether he could serve in a government committed to leaving the EU, Osborne said: “It is my country right or wrong. And I intend to fulfil my responsibilities to the country.”

Arrogant little st gets it half wrong himself.

He talks about waiting until the autumn and a new PM for a full statement, but he may be sacked at that time for calling it wrong and initially talking the country down. Gove may yet get his job so he wants to score points while he can, being an odious twerp has come naturally to him after some considerable success previously.

I thought Osborne was worth putting up with until the referendum campaign, at which point the facts changed and so did my view.

Cant argue with the facts though: 11% deficit down to 3%

He's done (or is doing) what he said he'd do.

[Camoradi]

walm said:

Mostly because we don't really make much, sadly.
Unlike Germany.

So we can all agree on the root problem, which is negative balance of trade. Historic poor management of our economy and industry would seem to be the root cause. Much of this has taken place during the period of our membership of the EU, whilst Germany has forged ahead. Sad really.

[turbobloke]

walm said:

Camoradi said:

walm said:

It makes things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.
Recessions are usually consumer-led.
The bank may be forced to lower rates to help the consumer out and then the pound will weaken further.
Repeat.

But surely that's on the basis that we can't change our economy to a different, more manufacturing and export led model.

It makes IMPORTED things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.

It will make British made products more attractive to overseas buyers.

If low currency rates work for Germany, why could they not work for us?

Mostly because we don't really make much, sadly.
Unlike Germany.

And with a currency drop there's an incentive to make more, and for those who alreadu make, to export more.

International buyers won't be snivelling about being on the wrong side of a referendum result, they'll snap up bargains.

[walm]

turbobloke said:

And with a currency drop there's an incentive to make more, and for those who already make, to export more.

International buyers won't be snivelling about being on the wrong side of a referendum result, they'll snap up bargains.

The problem is that the Euro is weakening too and Euro buyers aren't overly keen to forge new purchasing agreements with a country they may not be able to buy from in 24 months.
So you are left trying to sell to USD denominated countries which would in theory want your cheap stuff but since so much of the cost of buying stuff is USD denominated it won't be all that cheap.

Sadly, it isn't just as easy as saying "well just export more".

[Sway]

walm said:

Camoradi said:

walm said:

It makes things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.
Recessions are usually consumer-led.
The bank may be forced to lower rates to help the consumer out and then the pound will weaken further.
Repeat.

But surely that's on the basis that we can't change our economy to a different, more manufacturing and export led model.

It makes IMPORTED things a lot more expensive for UK consumers.

It will make British made products more attractive to overseas buyers.

If low currency rates work for Germany, why could they not work for us?

Mostly because we don't really make much, sadly.
Unlike Germany.

We make more than every other country, bar eight.

Just let that sink in. Out of a hundred and ninety odd countries, many significantly bigger than us, and we make more than a hundred and eighty of them.

[walm]

Sway said:

We make more than every other country, bar eight.

Just let that sink in. Out of a hundred and ninety odd countries, many significantly bigger than us, and we make more than a hundred and eighty of them.

I have no idea what is supposed to be sinking in here, sorry!
Unless it is some weird geography lesson for 7-year-olds.

I was just explaining why the GBP drop is potentially bad.

[Camoradi]

walm said:

Sadly, it isn't just as easy as saying "well just export more".

I agree it won't be easy to revive industry after years of decline, but neither is it impossible. A few more Jaguars and Range Rovers to the US and Middle and Far East will be a start though.

[vonuber]

turbobloke said:

What an appalling statement to make.

Not a chance we all lost. Some Remainians think they 'lost' and are basically st-stirring out of petulance...also the realisation that like the BBC they are the ones out of step.

The regions which recieved hundreds of millions of eu funding have lost. That won't get replaced.

[sidicks]

vonuber said:

The regions which recieved hundreds of millions of eu funding have lost. That won't get replaced.

Why not, says who?

Where the money be spent instead?

[walm]

Camoradi said:

walm said:

Sadly, it isn't just as easy as saying "well just export more".

I agree it won't be easy to revive industry after years of decline, but neither is it impossible. A few more Jaguars and Range Rovers to the US and Middle and Far East will be a start though.

Again, just to make it completely clear... a huge proportion of the cost of a car is USD denominated. Labour is an important but not particularly significant chunk of the costs.

And for luxury cars you actually have a very weird economic effect since they are Veblen goods, where demand actually DROPS when you lower the price!!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good

[walm]

sidicks said:

vonuber said:

The regions which recieved hundreds of millions of eu funding have lost. That won't get replaced.

Why not, says who?

Where the money be spent instead?

Not sure if serious... it will be spent in the EU!

[turbobloke]

walm said:

turbobloke said:

And with a currency drop there's an incentive to make more, and for those who already make, to export more.

International buyers won't be snivelling about being on the wrong side of a referendum result, they'll snap up bargains.

The problem is that the Euro is weakening too and Euro buyers aren't overly keen to forge new purchasing agreements with a country they may not be able to buy from in 24 months..

It's about buying not marrying.

May I respectfully ask if you've run a business buying from abroad and selling to other countries? I enquire merely because it looks doubtful, but I appreciate you may be CEO of a FTSE 100 outfit. Mrs TB had such a business - import/export not FTSE 100 - and I 'interfered' from time to time by which I mean, helped out.

Buying was always about quality and if there are quality goods suddenly available for less than they were then they will be bought. There's no reason to keep with one supplier if there's a business basis for changing, so what happens in future is moot.

Moreover this country has no trade deal with the USA but she sold into the USA. You don't need a trade deal for a business to trade. This was one of those small businesses that are at the heart of the UK economy, they can easily grow into big businesses if current sclerotic big businesses take their eye off the ball for political reasons. Not that Mrs TB wants to be a fat cat, she's a retired slim kitten (she may read this).

Edited by turbobloke on Monday 27th June 09:10

[sidicks]

walm said:

Not sure if serious... it will be spent in the EU!

Where did that money come from in the first place?

[Sway]

walm said:

Sway said:

We make more than every other country, bar eight.

Just let that sink in. Out of a hundred and ninety odd countries, many significantly bigger than us, and we make more than a hundred and eighty of them.

I have no idea what is supposed to be sinking in here, sorry!
Unless it is some weird geography lesson for 7-year-olds.

I was just explaining why the GBP drop is potentially bad.

Well, you stated quite clearly that 'we really don't make very much'.

Yet clearly we do. In the top 5% of manufacturering nations in the world. That would seem like a hell of a lot.

Look at what happened to BMW/Merc/Audi after Germany instigated the Euro. Huge, massive growth from what we're previously fairly low volume 'luxury' or 'executive' cars, to huge market shares and now considered really rather mundane.

It's already been mentioned, but now look at the current image of JLR, and what is likely to happen now that their exports are cheaper.

My current client makes low volume, very high priced, legislation required kit for a specific growing industry. There are four players in the game, but really only two - one Canadian, one here. The one here has been selling well into China, the US, and Australasia, but on a basis of a greater level of technical excellence as opposed to price. Yet compared to the competition, we're only a couple of percent shy of beating them on price too.

That's just happened. The sales and commercial functions will be making hay, and it looks like I'll be engaged a while longer as they're now racing to get a larger manufacturing facility designed and built...

[turbobloke]

There really is an upside to a soft GBP.

[walm]

turbobloke said:

May I respectfully ask if you've run a business buying from abroad and selling to other countries? Mrs TB had such a business and I 'interfered' from time to time by which I mean, helped out.

Buying was always about quality and if there are quality goods suddenly available for less than they were then they will be bought. There's no reason to keep with one supplier if there's a business basis for changing, so what happens in future is moot.

Moreover this country has no trade deal with the USA but she sold into the USA. You don't need a trade deal for a business to trade.

Selling services, yes but I invest in a boat-load of international manufacturers, so know them reasonably well, although they are usually at the bigger end.

Ask your wife how much work it took to land that first US order.
You can't just drop the price and expect the phone to start ringing.
It all costs money: marketing, distribution, shipping.

Sure if you have an existing US presence it will help, but elasticity isn't usually 100% so you are still worse off.