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[turbobloke]

whoami said:

RichB said:

turbobloke said:

whoami said:

turbobloke said:

Young educated voters are young and educated but may well lack the wisdom to make accurate judgements.

Like, apparently, actually bothering to vote.

That would indeed have been wise.

Just seen on the BBC that of the 18-24 age group on 36% turnout and they still moan!

Indeed.

Whatever "education" they may have, it seems that the fact you have to get off your arse to place your vote, rather than bleat on Twitter or FB, seems to have escaped them.

It says it all.

Quite unbelievable really. Then read vonuber and you'd think there was a valid and justifiable youth supremacy movement where degrees confer near-infallibility.

[sidicks]

youngsyr said:

When the figures aren't over one day, but four days and show moves that we haven't seen in a generation, I'd suggest that the conclusion to be drawn is a serious one.

What 'moves that we haven't seen in a generation' are you referring to?

[youngsyr]

vonuber said:

Sam All said:

Oh dear.

Oh dear all you like - it's true. I see the pound is now at a historic 32 year low against the dollar currently.
I'm currently worrying that projects with overseas investment are going to be pulled which will be catastrophic for our company with huge knock on effects.

Still, roll your sleeves up eh! We can all turn into fisherman overnight!

Funny you should mention that - the 12 (yes 12!) fisherman shown in their local market (built with EU funds - oh the irony!) shown on the news over the weekend were understandably quite happy with the result.

Edited by youngsyr on Monday 27th June 11:38

[youngsyr]

sidicks said:

youngsyr said:

When the figures aren't over one day, but four days and show moves that we haven't seen in a generation, I'd suggest that the conclusion to be drawn is a serious one.

What 'moves that we haven't seen in a generation' are you referring to?

How about the 10% fall in GBP:USD over four hours, to a 32 year low?

Or perhaps gilt yields down to <1%, an all time low (dating back a couple hundred years)?

[turbobloke]

youngsyr said:

turbobloke said:

What goes down will go up. Some bargains are to be had not least in terms of our exports benefiting from GBP.

Shame we import 67% more than we export then, eh?

No, that's the past. It's probably not even the present.

GBP has changed, so will exports but not in a few hours.

We may do more business at home and imports will change, but not in a few hours.

You're living in the past when a whole new future of opporunity is about to come our way.

[vonuber]

turbobloke said:

Quite unbelievable really. Then read vonuber and you'd think there was a valid and justifiable youth supremacy movement where degrees confer near-infallibility.

Not what i said was it. I see reading is not your strong point is it.

As an aside what's going to be the impact on pensions?

[mattmurdock]

turbobloke said:

The answer is easy - it's the new PM, whoever is elected, the new Cabinet they appoint, and the specialists invited to assist them in negotiations;

C'mon Turbo, I'd expect a shoulder slope from an elected official, but not from you .

The new PM, whoever is elected, based on comments from the main leaders of Vote Leave and the fact that around 500 MPs were in favour of Remain is on balance much more likely to steer us towards a free movement, single market, net contribution situation. If this is not what the people who voted leave want, what exactly are they going to do about it?

I cannot see a single current MP (perhaps with the exception of Carswell) taking it any other way - so who is going to bring forward the changes you believe are required?

turbobloke said:

There was evidence, for example Juncker, and Treaties.

It wasn't pure guesswork.

OK, so where is the similar evidence showing we will completely divorce from the EU and no longer be net contributors? Because otherwise this supposed long-term upside is also complete guesswork.

A common debating technique amongst creationists is to claim uncertainty means equal probability of outcome regardless of evidence (it is just a best guess, it is only a theory etc.).

[walm]

turbobloke said:

What goes down will go up. Some bargains are to be had not least in terms of our exports benefiting from GBP.

Yeah.
People were saying that on Friday too, and are losing their shirts today.

Again, I hope you are right!

[Sam All]

youngsyr said:

sidicks said:

youngsyr said:

When the figures aren't over one day, but four days and show moves that we haven't seen in a generation, I'd suggest that the conclusion to be drawn is a serious one.

What 'moves that we haven't seen in a generation' are you referring to?

How about the 10% fall in GBP:USD over four hours, to a 32 year low?

Does it affect you? Will the UK collapse as a result of this temporary currency volatility? JP Morgan have already said the £ will be stronger against the Euro in less than 2 years, and will not weaken much from current levels ( The £ has been significant weaker than this against the Euro in recent history - almost parity - and life carried on)

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

Some bargains are to be had

Such as British companies, now nice and cheap, to be bought by foreign companies?

[walm]

turbobloke said:

You're living in the past when a whole new future of opportunity is about to come our way.

Serious question but what opportunities?
A very slight pricing advantage for exporters?

[Puggit]

Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."

[Murph7355]

walm said:

...
Note that Murph is absolutely right though - being young and having a degree doesn't make you right or your vote worth any more.

Stats are a fascinating subject, and can be made to show all manner of things, sensible and not.

That chart quoting this as the strongest correlation at least is careful with the word it uses ("correlation"), but surely to prove something is the strongest you must demonstrate that every other correlation is weaker.

I wonder what the correlation is between the number of pairs of trainers a voter owns and how they voted. With some of the degrees people have these days, it may be more relevant (I was young with a degree once and my older self would laugh at my younger self being described as some are describing them now - I could be a proper nugget at times in those days and no way would I have known one end of the EU from the other at the time. I doubt (and indeed hope) graduates have improved significantly as a demographic in that respect. Unless they're studying politics).

It also misses one linkage where I think the word "causation" could be used. Which to me is far more important. And that's voter turnout. The young (and presumably equally educated) were, I believe, least likely to vote. It's no good being young and educated if you don't use your vote.

[Fittster]

Puggit said:

Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."

Without having to comply with EU regulations and laws?

[Puggit]

Fittster said:

Puggit said:

Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."

Without having to comply with EU regulations and laws?

Of course we would - when dealing with the EU. And yes, that would include freedom of movement.

[Fittster]

Greg66 said:

turbobloke said:

Some bargains are to be had

Such as British companies, now nice and cheap, to be bought by foreign companies?

"Sterling dropped 3 percent to $1.3275 at 11:05 a.m. in London on Monday, after reaching a three-decade low of $1.3222 that surpassed its weakest level reached in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the European Union. The extra losses added to the unprecedented 8.1 percent tumble on that day, which was almost double the 4.1 percent decline on Black Wednesday in 1992, when the U.K. was forced out of Europe’s exchange-rate mechanism."

Good job we export more than we import..... Oh.

[sidicks]

youngsyr said:

How about the 10% fall in GBP:USD over four hours, to a 32 year low?

You conveniently forget about the 6.5% increased in GBP-USD in the week prior to the vote. And the 5% rise immediately following the period you highlight. Which took it back close to the levels experienced at the start of the previous week.

youngsyr said:

Or perhaps gilt yields down to <1%, an all time low (dating back a couple hundred years)?

Expect the government bond curve post Brexit was basically unchanged from the government bond curve the week before Brexit, simply unwinding the speculation of the previous week!

[anonymous-user]

Fittster said:

Puggit said:

Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."

Without having to comply with EU regulations and laws?

Quite. Access isn't the problem. The terms of access are the problem.

[Fittster]

Puggit said:

Fittster said:

Puggit said:

Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."

Without having to comply with EU regulations and laws?

Of course we would - when dealing with the EU. And yes, that would include freedom of movement.

But that means the referendum would be pointless. We'd have to comply with EU rules without any saying in their creation.

[walm]

Murph7355 said:

That chart quoting this as the strongest correlation at least is careful with the word it uses ("correlation"), but surely to prove something is the strongest you must demonstrate that every other correlation is weaker.

Agree on the turnout point but usually the FT is pretty good on checking other correlations (trainers, ha!).
That chart has the strongest R^2 of any I have seen.

You're absolutely right though correlation =/= causation, here.