Discussion
youngsyr said:
Funny you should mention that - the 12 (yes 12!) fisherman shown in their local market (built on EU funds) shown on the news over the weekend were understandably quite happy with the result.
They might no be so happy if access to our waters is given as part of the bargaining. Fittster said:
Puggit said:
Fittster said:
Puggit said:
Guido tweeted: "Pierre Moscovici, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, tells @BloombergTV he doesn't rule out UK's continued access to single market."
Without having to comply with EU regulations and laws?turbobloke said:
youngsyr said:
turbobloke said:
What goes down will go up. Some bargains are to be had not least in terms of our exports benefiting from GBP.
Shame we import 67% more than we export then, eh?GBP has changed, so will exports but not in a few hours.
We may do more business at home and imports will change, but not in a few hours.
You're living in the past when a whole new future of opporunity is about to come our way.
Either way you look at it - we "were" importing more than exporting last month because there were advantages for us to do so, the imports were either cheaper, or better quality or both.
So, from in our bright new future, the goods we used to import will either be more expensive, lower quality or both.
Or, we simply stop buying the goods we used to - which results in less choice and lower living standards.
and they still moan! sidicks said:
youngsyr said:
How about the 10% fall in GBP:USD over four hours, to a 32 year low?
You conveniently forget about the 6.5% increased in GBP-USD in the week prior to the vote. And the 5% rise immediately following the period you highlight. Which took it back close to the levels experienced at the start of the previous week.youngsyr said:
Or perhaps gilt yields down to <1%, an all time low (dating back a couple hundred years)?
Expect the government bond curve post Brexit was basically unchanged from the government bond curve the week before Brexit, simply unwinding the speculation of the previous week!sidicks said:
Mario149 said:
Okay, you pick some figures you think are reasonable, run the calcs and show us what you get. What numbers do you get given that even the leave campaign acknowledged we'd have to take a short term hit?
If only we had people who actually did these forecasts for a job who were able to tell us what they thought would likely happen before the whole vote took place. Various groups of non-politicians who could provide advice so an informed decision could be made. Shame there were none and we were all left to guess
Shame those figures were based on preposterous assumptions that the UK would act against it's own interests...If only we had people who actually did these forecasts for a job who were able to tell us what they thought would likely happen before the whole vote took place. Various groups of non-politicians who could provide advice so an informed decision could be made. Shame there were none and we were all left to guess
HTH
Don't know if this has been mentioned, but I heard on Radio 5 last night that there were some polls done which suggest that turnout amongst younger age groups may have been as low as 40%.
Best I can find so far is this article (Turnout by age group figures down the page a little. Showing 36% turnout in 18-24 age group!)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016...
If this is anywhere near accurate then they have nothing to complain about.
Best I can find so far is this article (Turnout by age group figures down the page a little. Showing 36% turnout in 18-24 age group!)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016...
If this is anywhere near accurate then they have nothing to complain about.
Mario149 said:
So if you can't or won't do some maths yourself, or listen to the advice of people who knew more than you, will you tell me what were those assumptions and why were they preposterous?
This has been done to death already - do a search.And once again you fail to acknowledge that there is more than one viewpoint.
sidicks said:
Mario149 said:
Yes, if one makes the fairly massive assumption that all will in fact be milk and honey once we're completely extricated from the EU and that it always continues to be better than being in the EU.
Ignorant straw man nonsenseMario149 said:
It's somewhat ridiculous: I get shot down for predicting that, in line with virtually everyone including the Leave campaign, in the short and medium term we'll be less well off. But apparently the long term ramifications, where no one appears to have any real idea because they're long term, are a dead cert because it fits with the Brexit narrative and it had to be that way to make sense of the choice.
More ignorant straw man nonsense!Camoradi said:
Don't know if this has been mentioned, but I heard on Radio 5 last night that there were some polls done which suggest that turnout amongst younger age groups may have been as low as 40%.
Best I can find so far is this article (Turnout by age group figures down the page a little. Showing 36% turnout in 18-24 age group!)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016...
If this is anywhere near accurate then they have nothing to complain about.
Best I can find so far is this article (Turnout by age group figures down the page a little. Showing 36% turnout in 18-24 age group!)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016...
If this is anywhere near accurate then they have nothing to complain about.
Article said:
{The polling company} isn't claiming this is collected data - it's projected, and a subsequent tweet said it was based on "9+/10 certainty to vote, usually/always votes, voted/ineligible at GE2015". I've asked for more information on what this means, but for now it's enough to say it's nothing more than a guess.
A projection based on the 2015 general election turnout? So completely groundless then.Mario149 said:
How is that straw man?
Because I've not made the comments you are claiming.
Mario149 said:
You've presented literally nothing that shows otherwise apart from the usual "they're biased". And while we're at it, the reason why no economic bodies predict that it'll all be milk and honey in the distant future, or indeed carnage, after Brexit is because you can't predict what will happen that far ahead with any certainty.
You seem to believe that there are only two possible outcomes - 'milk and honey' and 'disaster'. You're wrong.Mario149 said:
We can have a completely unrelated recession in 5 years. So long term Brexit economic forecasting relies purely on the hope that it will get better. I get that economic prosperity is significantly a function of confidence, but wishing it all goes well does not mean it will.
No one has said otherwise.youngsyr said:
turbobloke said:
youngsyr said:
turbobloke said:
What goes down will go up. Some bargains are to be had not least in terms of our exports benefiting from GBP.
Shame we import 67% more than we export then, eh?GBP has changed, so will exports but not in a few hours.
We may do more business at home and imports will change, but not in a few hours.
You're living in the past when a whole new future of opporunity is about to come our way.
English Takeaways in Beijing?!
People and businesses don’t just carry on and pay more when they can pay less for the same thing at the same quality level.
Mrs TB’s business imported from the far east because even with shipping and other costs, buying from suppliers there was between 10% and 50% cheaper than buying from domestic suppliers.
If one of the lines with a 10% differential became subject to a 12% increase in total cost and more so where volumes were high, she would without doubt have reverted to a home-made product. Buying British will be getting a boost at the moment.
The idea that a cost goes up and behaviour doesn’t change is bizarre and wrong. It was an error in pre-referendum analysis by Remain where the crystal ballers simply assumed people and businesses wouldn’t change their behaviour in a new market situation and that’s rubbish.
Of course there will be a sector or two where no domestic equivalent supplier exists, but by the same token there will be several where it does. So we’ve gone from all pessimism and all downside to a more neutral position and quite possibly a better place longer-term.
youngsyr said:
A projection based on the 2015 general election turnout? So completely groundless then.
Maybe, maybe not.Hardly conclusive either way, hence why my post was phrased more as an enquiry than a claim. I'd be interested if there were any accurate stats though as it was suggested before the vote that older voters were more likely to turn out. If you read further down there is also a link to a BBC article which shows that overall turnout was lower in areas with a greater percentage of 18-24 year olds.
With respect to your opinion which may be correct, I think you were a little too quick to jump in try and rubbish what I posted.
best regards
M3333 said:
Mario149 said:
Blue Oval84 said:
Just throwing this out there, a lot of people keep referring to the "will of the people" etc. but do we think that all 52% still think the same way today as they did on Thursday?
It seems to me, anecdotally, that there are quite a few of them who now think they were lied to "let's spend £350m on the NHS", "let's stop immigration" (it doesn't matter that it's not quite what was said, that was what they heard).
Now that they're waking up to some serious uncertainty, Downing St admitting it has no plan for this eventuality, Bo Jo himself looking like he didn't really want this outcome, admissions from Nigel Farrage that the NHS thing was "a mistake", and from Danial Hannan that they shouldn't expect us not to be accepting some free movement of people, do we honestly think all 52% are happy with the way they voted?
I think the government could quite easily get away with not implementing article 50 at this rate and, without having a sort of "are you sure you're sure?" referendum, it would be very hard to keep a straight face and say that all 52% are still in favour of leaving.
This^^. I know I'm biased as a Remainer, but I do genuinely think that in the last 48 hours or so when the ramifications of what has been voted for have started to become apparent, there are a statistically significant number of people who voted Leave who'd probably give a different Ref answer today than on Thursday as they were "soft" (i.e. it was a close run thing for them) Leavers. Conversely if you were a "soft" Remainer, I can't see anything that would push you the other way as I've seen literally no good short term news. And that doesn't even account for what I imagine would be a larger youth turnout and likely great Remain vote now that a great many of them would realise they can't be lazy and expect everything to be fine.It seems to me, anecdotally, that there are quite a few of them who now think they were lied to "let's spend £350m on the NHS", "let's stop immigration" (it doesn't matter that it's not quite what was said, that was what they heard).
Now that they're waking up to some serious uncertainty, Downing St admitting it has no plan for this eventuality, Bo Jo himself looking like he didn't really want this outcome, admissions from Nigel Farrage that the NHS thing was "a mistake", and from Danial Hannan that they shouldn't expect us not to be accepting some free movement of people, do we honestly think all 52% are happy with the way they voted?
I think the government could quite easily get away with not implementing article 50 at this rate and, without having a sort of "are you sure you're sure?" referendum, it would be very hard to keep a straight face and say that all 52% are still in favour of leaving.
A lot of people seem to have quickly forgotten a lot and seem scared to embrace change, be brave and get on with it.
We will be fine. Just fine.
Mario149 said:
Ring up your pension fund and ask them how it's doing. Those types of ramifications. There are already people on threads here saying they're directly affected. Everyone else *thinks* they'll be okay just because. I have expat retired friends in France whose meagre income is in GBP. They can't afford the pound to become worth less or for the French economy to suffer as an indirect result. And bear in mind that all the damage done now will have to be undone.
Any idiot who invests in equities and is worried about short term volatility deserves all he gets!
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