Results

[turbobloke]

vonuber said:

Surely just a two year wait before people who are non uk citizens can claim benefits (with NHS treatment recovered from the host country) along with paying a wage that incentivises the lazy arsed to actually go to work - so it's not worth being on benefits - is the most obvious solution to all of this?

Seems to me the majority of problems in this country are home grown - successive governments ignoring the regions (ironically leaving the eu to plug the investment gap, speak to cornwall for further details) along with a benefits system that can make work pointless due to low wages and tax credits subsidising employers.

Domestic matters can continue to be addressed as we remove ourselves from the EU. Then more so once we're out.

[youngsyr]

confused_buyer said:

95% of any deal could probably be agreed in a day as most of it is non-contentious. It is the last 5% which will take 2 years.

It is almost certainly going in the direction of a EEA/Norway ish style deal. We want access to the Single Market and they want access to ours with minimal disruption. We will have to pay something for this - probably around 50% of current contributions in line with Norway.

The argument will come down to two big things:

(a) Access to the Single Market with full financial passporting rights which we really want/need and the EU know this.
(b) Free movement of people which is politically difficult to us but something of a red line for the EU.

So, it will come down to a big argument of those two as a trade off against one another.

Of course, the somewhat unknown is how many people who start the negotiations will still be there when they finish 2 years later (on both sides).

Norway doesn't have Europe's finance services headquarters, unlike Britain.

France and Germany would very much like a piece of our £130bn financial services industry and I suspect this will be a big issue in the negotiations one way or another.

[Jimbeaux]

U.S. news this morning reports that Stock markets have already made some gains and that the British Pound has also regained some of its value, although there is room for much improvement. This is going to be OK I am betting.

[KTF]

The EU is playing hard ball by saying free movement is mandatory to gain access to the single market: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

[jjlynn27]

KTF said:

The EU is playing hard ball by saying free movement is mandatory to gain access to the single market: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland? To me that seemed like a foregone conclusion. I believe that now the only negotiation will be along the lines, do you want to access EU market? It comes with this this and this. Not negotiable. Now we can talk about how much that access will cost. (Obviously an example)

Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 15:13

[KTF]

jjlynn27 said:

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland?

Well as in you cant have one without the other which is as expected by everyone but those who campaigned to Leave.

[jjlynn27]

KTF said:

jjlynn27 said:

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland?

Well as in you cant have one without the other which is as expected by everyone but those who campaigned to Leave.

I made sneaky edit. But I do agree with that. It was obvious from the start. What I'm hoping for now is that they Leave campaign really had some hidden master-plan bar few (largely fictional) posters. I really do.

[turbobloke]

KTF said:

jjlynn27 said:

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland?

Well as in you cant have one without the other which is as expected by everyone but those who campaigned to Leave.

Not quite. You're making a large assumption on behalf of a lot of people.

[KTF]

turbobloke said:

Not quite. You're making a large assumption on behalf of a lot of people.

I meant from the politicians who campaigned, not what the the general public thought.

[don4l]

Welshbeef said:

FredClogs said:

Welshbeef said:

Visa and Vodaphone (HQ strongly looking to relocate) out of the U.K.

On Sky news breaking news!

I lived in Newbury for a few years whilst Vodaphone were building that HQ. That will leave a sizeable whole in that area if they do move out.

I've been to the site it's huge and far too many staff for the site hence they encourage working at home.

Still if that goes from Newbury (along with Bayer who announced they were moving to Reading long before the vote) then it's a massive loss of local employment. Sure it's not far to travel to Reading BUT the time it takes due to dire congestion is laughable.


Not good if it turns out to be true.


Visa moving out 2,000 staff from Paddington to Europe as part of a clause they had in the sale to Visa Inc is a forgone conslusion.

Hmm.

They are talking about their London HQ.

Newbury is quite safe.

[KrissKross]

///ajd said:

Is that why we need to leave the EU?

To break free of the shackles of the Single Market and set up wonderful trade deals across the globe!

Finally free to err only buy stuff made in the UK cos foreign stuff is rubbish innit?

Its because of stupidity like this that people don't have the motivation to buy or manufacture on the UK, give it a rest.

[Mafffew]

KTF said:

I meant from the politicians who campaigned, not what the the general public thought.

I'd probably argue it's the other way around. Any politician with half a brain would have known the EU were going to say that, if they thought otherwise then they really shouldn't be in the job. They campaigned knowing it is likely they will have to agree to it.

A lot of people who voted leave will certainly be pissed if free movement is agreed to, but again if they didn't know then they really shouldn't have voted.

[don4l]

jjlynn27 said:

KTF said:

The EU is playing hard ball by saying free movement is mandatory to gain access to the single market: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland? To me that seemed like a foregone conclusion. I believe that now the only negotiation will be along the lines, do you want to access EU market? It comes with this this and this. Not negotiable. Now we can talk about how much that access will cost. (Obviously an example)

Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 15:13

We can have access to EU markets via WTO.

Clearly there is no point having negotiations while Junker and Tusk are in office.

If Merkel wants to protect her car industry she will sort them out.

[turbobloke]

KTF said:

I meant from the politicians who campaigned, not what the the general public thought.

So did I, several of the proposed or suggested Brexit routes priced in the cost of market access and included the accompanying details on what this would involve

[Efbe]

don4l said:

jjlynn27 said:

KTF said:

The EU is playing hard ball by saying free movement is mandatory to gain access to the single market: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36659900

Why do you think that that's playing hardball. Wasn't it always that? Even with Norway & Switzerland? To me that seemed like a foregone conclusion. I believe that now the only negotiation will be along the lines, do you want to access EU market? It comes with this this and this. Not negotiable. Now we can talk about how much that access will cost. (Obviously an example)

Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 15:13

We can have access to EU markets via WTO.

Clearly there is no point having negotiations while Junker and Tusk are in office.

If Merkel wants to protect her car industry she will sort them out.

out of interest, does anyone know would the expected cost of tariffs to us would be for us if not in the EU, and how that would pan out as an actual overall cost?

[Guvernator]

To be honest a lot of the tensions over some of the issues like immigration, dissatisfaction with poor government services and overspending where bubbling under the surface long before the referendum and the EU was the pressure valve that allowed it all to vent. Most people didn't really know what they were voting for. The leavers wanted something\anything to change and the remainers didn't want to rock the boat as they believed it was the safest course of action.

Realistically though I don't really think that was an option as things had been left to stew for far too long, a lot of these issues should have been headed off and dealt with ages ago and now we've had a referendum where the heart has ruled the head, this was in no way a logical vote. Crazy when you think about what could be at stake but I genuinely believe something would have blown up sooner or later even without it.

[s2art]

don4l said:

We can have access to EU markets via WTO.

Clearly there is no point having negotiations while Junker and Tusk are in office.

If Merkel wants to protect her car industry she will sort them out.

As part of a Flexit approach we could, initially, simply exit the EU but stay in the EEA and apply the emergency brake on immigration that is available. This enables us to keep tariff free access to the single market, gives more time to negotiate with whatever becomes of the EU and gives us time to negotiate FTAs with other countries. Seems a nice smooth exit to me with minimal shocks.

[andy_s]

Free movement of EU residents and do as we want with anyone else (status quo) seems fair enough to me; it was mainly the non-EU migrants people were focussing on....wasn't it....? People who didn't bother thinking further than their nearest UKIP poster just conflated the two/lumped the two in together, surely.

[s2art]

Efbe said:

out of interest, does anyone know would the expected cost of tariffs to us would be for us if not in the EU, and how that would pan out as an actual overall cost?

It would average out at approx 4-5%. But on cars it would be 10%.

[John145]

Does free movement of labour include freedom to claim benefits?

I'd expect a compromise could be anyone can come but only British passport holders can claim British benefits.