Results

[Guvernator]

jjlynn27 said:

Trabi601 said:

This was far too big a question to give to the general population. Most people who voted seem to not have the slightest clue what they were actually voting for.

Pretty much sums up all the threads about ref.

It's weird isn't it, we often complain that we don't have enough democracy and the powers that be have too much control then the one chance we get to prove otherwise and we make a right balls up of it.

[jjlynn27]

Esseesse said:

AJS- said:

I expect we will see lots of headlines about companies relocating because of Brexit. Especially while they're desperately trying to find any possible way to reverse or ignore the decision. I also expect most will be overblown or will be attributed to Brexit even if they would have happened anyway.

Everything you previously got used to hearing 'because of Tory austerity' will now be 'because of Brexit'.

Why people keep saying this? The option of staying in is not feasible. There is no appetite for reversion within EU even if there was, theoretically, in UK. We'll need to get someone good to start moving this country forward. My impression is that A LOT of people, regardless of how they've voted will be disappointed with the outcome.

[405dogvan]

Let's just tidy-up this argument a bit.

Before the referendum, pretty-much everyone thought it would be 'Remain' - that includes the currency/investment markets and businesses.

The result changed everything and created a lot of uncertainty (and yes, opportunity) but no-one really knows what's going-on and that's not a situation we want to continue with.

The Tories are unfking themselves, Labour need to unfk themselves and we need to get one with some sort of plan ASAP because right now we're the guy who shouted "fk" in a crowded room, everyone is wondering WTF we do next.

Are we nutters or do we have a cunning plan - we need to clear that up (and I have to admit, with May in the lead I have NO idea what's going on cos she was pro Remain - with Gove clearly swinging out to a 'fk the EU completely' position already??)

[Guvernator]

Genuine question, can anyone really see the EU surviving in it's current form in the next 5 years? Personally I don't think the great EU project is working and was doomed to some sort of failure sooner or later but interested to hear others viewpoints on the matter, especially from remain supporters.

[Stickyfinger]

walm said:

Absolute rubbish.
"Most" would NOT have called the GBP over valued before the referendum.
In fact a lot of uncertainty was priced in.
Look how it soared to USD1.50 as traders thought Remain was going to win.

Before Brexit, we were going to see a little rate rise of some sort in the near future.
Now it's going to be a cut.

Right now - we have no PM. At the very moment when we desperately need someone to lead the country we won't have one until September.

And owing to the rapid move in currency and the risk around investing in a country facing serious trade negotiations they just aren't prepared for... people are actively pushing out UK investments.

I am literally looking at a Credit Suisse report showing how their Contstruction volume growth forecast for 2017 has dropped from +5% to -4%.
(They'll be wrong of course but it gives you an idea of the magnitude.)
Those sorts of swings are the very definition of unstable... aren't they...?

Stickyfinger - what would it take for you to describe the economy as unstable?
Given we aren't a third world country, nor about to be taken over by Russia... In relative terms of the developed world we are HUGELY unstable right now, IMHO.

Funny how all the financial and Political Experts are on a Car Forum at 4pm in the afternoon smile

PM, is on working notice. & strong candidates up for election soon, Chancellor still in place as is the head of the BoE.
Pound is NOT in free fall.
A small slow down is acceptable to me for Political Freedom from an autocratic and dictatorial (failing) EU.
EU banks (bar German) are fked, Euro has a massive over debt problem far exceeding that of the £.
Small swings are not badly effecting the Stock Market.

No, we are not "Unstable" but we have uncertainty ahead I agree. We/UK is has the capability of overcoming it.

Get of your dead horse, dust off your doom and get on with life/business/Great Britain

Edited by Stickyfinger on Friday 1st July 16:22

[youngsyr]

Guvernator said:

Genuine question, can anyone really see the EU surviving in it's current form in the next 5 years? Personally I don't think the great EU project is working and was doomed to some sort of failure sooner or later but interested to hear others viewpoints on the matter, especially from remain supporters.

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

[turbobloke]

Guvernator said:

jjlynn27 said:

Trabi601 said:

This was far too big a question to give to the general population. Most people who voted seem to not have the slightest clue what they were actually voting for.

Pretty much sums up all the threads about ref.

It's weird isn't it, we often complain that we don't have enough democracy and the powers that be have too much control then the one chance we get to prove otherwise and we make a right balls up of it.

That's a matter of opinion, and while you're entitled to yours concerning the ballsup, there are plenty of people who worked out that they didn't want to stay in the EU and whether anyone else approves of their reason(s) is irrelevant. The issue was rightly put to the people and the outcome is that we're leaving the EU.

[Jockman]

youngsyr said:

Guvernator said:

Genuine question, can anyone really see the EU surviving in it's current form in the next 5 years? Personally I don't think the great EU project is working and was doomed to some sort of failure sooner or later but interested to hear others viewpoints on the matter, especially from remain supporters.

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

Good Reply.

Which is exactly what you are going to get

[London424]

youngsyr said:

Guvernator said:

Genuine question, can anyone really see the EU surviving in it's current form in the next 5 years? Personally I don't think the great EU project is working and was doomed to some sort of failure sooner or later but interested to hear others viewpoints on the matter, especially from remain supporters.

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Debt, no growth, bail-outs, enforced austerity, pissed off electorates, some sort of combination of those things most likely.

[youngsyr]

Stickyfinger said:

walm said:

Absolute rubbish.
"Most" would NOT have called the GBP over valued before the referendum.
In fact a lot of uncertainty was priced in.
Look how it soared to USD1.50 as traders thought Remain was going to win.

Before Brexit, we were going to see a little rate rise of some sort in the near future.
Now it's going to be a cut.

Right now - we have no PM. At the very moment when we desperately need someone to lead the country we won't have one until September.

And owing to the rapid move in currency and the risk around investing in a country facing serious trade negotiations they just aren't prepared for... people are actively pushing out UK investments.

I am literally looking at a Credit Suisse report showing how their Contstruction volume growth forecast for 2017 has dropped from +5% to -4%.
(They'll be wrong of course but it gives you an idea of the magnitude.)
Those sorts of swings are the very definition of unstable... aren't they...?

Stickyfinger - what would it take for you to describe the economy as unstable?
Given we aren't a third world country, nor about to be taken over by Russia... In relative terms of the developed world we are HUGELY unstable right now, IMHO.

Funny how all the financial and Political Experts are on a Car Forum at 4pm in the afternoon

PM, is on working notice. & strong candidates up for election soon, Chancellor still in place as is the head of the BoE.
Pound is NOT in free fall.
A small slow down is acceptable to me for Political Freedom from an autocratic and dictatorial (failing) EU.
EU banks (bar German) are fked, Euro has a massive over debt problem far exceeding that of the £.
Small swings are not badly effecting the Stock Market.

No, we are not "Unstable"

Get of your dead horse, dust off your doom and get on with life/business/Great Britain

On the flip side, no-one knows who the next PM will be, when they'll be appointed, or even whether they or their government will last more than 5 minutes.

The £ is jumping all over the place as no-one has any clue what's going to happen to the economy for at least the next 5 years.

Now compare that to where we were before the referendum was announced - it's the definition of instability.

[Guvernator]

youngsyr said:

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

I'm not a financial expert but off the top of my head.

1) Look how much trouble one small country like Greece not being able to manage it's finances properly has caused. They aren't the only country in financial trouble.

2) Other countries are already making rumblings about leaving.

Yes the UK leaving may have accelerated some matters but I think it was in quite a lot of trouble already.

How would you have envisaged a slow withdrawal going? Surely at some point we'd have had to announce our intent to leave and you'd still have had fallout.

[Robertj21a]

youngsyr said:

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

How could you plan a more gradual withdrawal if there's no negotiating until S50 papers are submitted - and then you have 2 years max ?

[Jockman]

Robertj21a said:

youngsyr said:

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

How could you plan a more gradual withdrawal if there's no negotiating until S50 papers are submitted - and then you have 2 years max ?

Not true.

[walm]

Esseesse said:

walm said:

Before Brexit, we were going to see a little rate rise of some sort in the near future.

Did you believe that? The Fed was going to raise rates 4 times this year too.

Sadly as I am a muppet I did actually!! (Evidence - my 5 year fixed rate mortgage I just took on... IDIOT!)

[sidicks]

walm said:

Absolute rubbish.
"Most" would NOT have called the GBP over valued before the referendum.
In fact a lot of uncertainty was priced in.
Look how it soared to USD1.50 as traders thought Remain was going to win.

Many saw the USD as overvalued prior to the referendum given their economic situation.

walm said:

Before Brexit, we were going to see a little rate rise of some sort in the near future.
Now it's going to be a cut.

I'm not sure that is what was factored into the market!

[London424]

walm said:

Esseesse said:

walm said:

Before Brexit, we were going to see a little rate rise of some sort in the near future.

Did you believe that? The Fed was going to raise rates 4 times this year too.

Sadly as I am a muppet I did actually!! (Evidence - my 5 year fixed rate mortgage I just took on... IDIOT!)

I'm 2 years into a 5 year fix as I believed Carney the first time round!!

[Esseesse]

According to Delingpole, when the Swiss held a referendum on their EEA membership (in which they voted to leave) there was much similar predictions of woe from the establishment, Swiss Franc would become Zimbabwe Dollar etc etc...

[youngsyr]

Robertj21a said:

youngsyr said:

Well, flip the question around: why do you think the EU would fail within the next 5 years if we'd stayed in?

Personally, I think in the very long term (10-20 years) we'll be better off out - but I would have much preferred a planned and gradual withdrawal, rather than jumping out the window.

How could you plan a more gradual withdrawal if there's no negotiating until S50 papers are submitted - and then you have 2 years max ?

You discuss the options (Norway model, EFTA, etc) and likely processes to get there before the referendum and then have more than a simple in our out vote = you ask whether people want the status quo, option A, option B, Total withdrawal, etc.

That way at least some questions are answered before the vote.

As S50 starting gun and two year time limit, both could be completely ignored by back room discussions of the sort that happen every day in political circles.

[Stickyfinger]

youngsyr said:

Now compare that to where we were before the referendum was announced - it's the definition of instability.

We were under the yoke of an unelected bureaucracy presiding over a castrated EU Parliament which only functions by doing deals behind closed doors.

To me that is unstable and unsustainable, so your correct but not why you think.

Edited by Stickyfinger on Friday 1st July 16:36

[Balmoral]

youngsyr said:

in the very long term (10-20 years)

Let's not forget that there are members of the European Union right now that less than 30 years ago were on the other side of the iron curtain and were part of the Soviet Union. Big changes can happen in just a few decades. I don't think the EU will exist in a few decades time, I really don't. (Where will that leave Scotland?)