Lots of angry people today.

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lostkiwi

4,584 posts

125 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Nothing concrete is likely to happen till they resolve the power vacuum in Westminister.
Until the internal bickering of the Tories and Labour parties is resolved we will just be in limbo with statements made that cannot be implemented until some one strong enough to lead and activate article 50 is found.
There was an interesting comment on the Guardian comments pages about how the leadership of the Tory party is a tainted for whoever takes it on. Its certainly a risky place to be as if the Brexit strategy fails the blame will be squarely laid at the feet of the person who pushed the button but similarly if it isn't pushed then the blame for that will likewise be laid at their feet.

Murph7355

37,768 posts

257 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
Nothing concrete is likely to happen till they resolve the power vacuum in Westminister.
Until the internal bickering of the Tories and Labour parties is resolved we will just be in limbo with statements made that cannot be implemented until some one strong enough to lead and activate article 50 is found.
There was an interesting comment on the Guardian comments pages about how the leadership of the Tory party is a tainted for whoever takes it on. Its certainly a risky place to be as if the Brexit strategy fails the blame will be squarely laid at the feet of the person who pushed the button but similarly if it isn't pushed then the blame for that will likewise be laid at their feet.
I'm not sure Cameron's reputation will escape with the way he's behaved over this debacle, however...

Why is it all so negative? Anyone taking on that role and it succeeding will presumably be in power for a good 9yrs. Maybe longer. Happy days smile

Kermit power

28,696 posts

214 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
JagLover said:
Kermit power said:
So far, all the leaders of the leave camp seem to have been doing is backtracking on every belief their supporters had, whilst making it clear that they're going to have nothing to do with that greasy little oik Farage moving forward.
Its been three days and so far all we have had is an article from Boris saying immigration should now be subject to a points based system.

If they still allow free movement as a price for being in the single market then yes they will have betrayed many leave voters. But we don't know yet.
And also Hannan on Newsnight talking about envisaging free movement in the future, but the reality is that it doesn't matter what system we bring in, I think Leave voters are going to feel betrayed.

The problem, as I see it, is that there are completely conflicting views of what immigration looks like.

If you look at it on a national scale, then we'd need to take in about 300,000 immigrants every year just to keep population numbers stable by replacing the people who've left.

Add to that the fact that increases to pension age have lagged woefully behind increases to life expectancy, and just keeping the population stable just isn't enough. Every year, we have more and more ageing, non-working people, thus creating demand for more workers to support them, both directly in terms of providing good and services and indirectly in terms of taxation to pay for it all. Couple this with the fact that we're getting on for as close as is feasibly possible to full employment, and I don't see that it's possible to argue against significant future immigration, and not just for certain specialist jobs.

Look, though, at the motivations for people who voted leave, and it's a very different picture. Understandably, they're just looking at their own lives and immediate environment, and the picture is very different. From reading articles recently, I'm utterly perplexed by the notion that anyone from anywhere would actively choose to go and live in Hartlepool, for example, but it is evident that for whatever reason, despite the apparent lack of any sort of decent prospects for the future, lots of Eastern Europeans have made this baffling choice.

So, if you're a resident of Hartlepool and you already had next to no prospects in life, I can fully understand that any immigration at all would be considered a betrayal of your leave vote. It doesn't matter that there are other areas of the country at full employment already who desperately need immigrants because they can't get the workers they need in any other way, you're only interested in Hartlepool, and you've been screwed over, whether it's a points system or otherwise.

Kermit power

28,696 posts

214 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
I'm not sure Cameron's reputation will escape with the way he's behaved over this debacle, however...

Why is it all so negative? Anyone taking on that role and it succeeding will presumably be in power for a good 9yrs. Maybe longer. Happy days smile
You are assuming that any of them think it will succeed!

There has been much talk since the result about how out of touch Westminster leaders were with the rest of the country, and guess what? Gove, Johnson and co were all Westminster leaders too!

Cynical me suspects that they went into the campaign thinking that if they did win, they'd take over the reins of the Tory party, create a more right wing environment, deliver continued membership of the single market and the ensuing free movement of labour and do some tinkering around human rights and benefits payments to give the appearance of a brave new independent Britain which still kept most of the existing structures in place.

I think Gove and Johnson have been caught out by the strength of populist feeling just as much as anyone else, and are now crapping themselves at the thought of how on earth they're supposed to try and do anything with it, hence the Leave leaders being amongst the most vocal in saying "well hang on a minute, we don't have to hurry this"!

AJS-

15,366 posts

237 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Funny to hear remainers complaining that 52% isn't much of a mandate, whenyou consider that they never had a mandate to be in the EU in the first place.

John145

2,449 posts

157 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
How many more times do people have to repeat the same nonsense to themselves in the hope it becomes the truth?

"Vast swatches voted to kick out europeans"

"Immigration was the key issue for most voters"

"Those that vote leave are uneducated and destroying the future of the next generation"


It was a population of people that voted for Brexit.

To label a population as racist, stupid, ignorant, whatever else is wrong.

When I consider politics I don't think about an individual, there will always be individuals who are stupid, populations of people are not. Infact populations of people tend to be of average intelligence.

The simple fact of the matter is, the argument for remain as presented failed to defeat the argument for leave.

Now the argument was lost, the electorate decided sovereignty was more important than short term economics.

Immigration is not a root cause, it is a symptom of a lack of sovereignty. The population realised this. The argument for control was won.

Any person who I have spoken to who voted remain I managed to defeat their arguments quite swiftly. They were mostly based on hopes and dreams that made Disney seem like real life.

If remain had won, let me ask, what would we be hearing on the news now with regards to the referendum? Nothing.

Nothing would be changing. We would pursue every closer union at the continued detriment of our democracy.

I also believe CMD's "agreed reforms" would fail to be integrated to the cries of you sold us a lie. There would be no impetus for the EU to reform as the UK agreed to become one with the EU wholly. Atleast that is how the EU would've seen the decision.

This was the right decision to leave. The argument was won. More than 17 million people believed in it.More than 17 million people took the risk, I'd further argue not only was the argument won but it has done so well it defeated the typical "status quo" that I genuinely believe most remainers were hoping for.

Kermit power

28,696 posts

214 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
AJS- said:
they never had a mandate to be in the EU in the first place.
How do you figure that one out?

We were taken into the EU by a democratically elected government to whom we had granted a mandate at the ballot box, and therefore there was a mandate for joining the EU. That's how British politics works.

If you want all decisions large or small to be decided by direct referendum to ensure that they have a recognisable individual mandate, we're all going to be rather busy moving forwards!

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

125 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
lostkiwi said:
Nothing concrete is likely to happen till they resolve the power vacuum in Westminister.
Until the internal bickering of the Tories and Labour parties is resolved we will just be in limbo with statements made that cannot be implemented until some one strong enough to lead and activate article 50 is found.
There was an interesting comment on the Guardian comments pages about how the leadership of the Tory party is a tainted for whoever takes it on. Its certainly a risky place to be as if the Brexit strategy fails the blame will be squarely laid at the feet of the person who pushed the button but similarly if it isn't pushed then the blame for that will likewise be laid at their feet.
I'm not sure Cameron's reputation will escape with the way he's behaved over this debacle, however...

Why is it all so negative? Anyone taking on that role and it succeeding will presumably be in power for a good 9yrs. Maybe longer. Happy days smile
Here is the comment (presented for interest):
comment said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

Murph7355

37,768 posts

257 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Kermit power said:
There has been much talk since the result about how out of touch Westminster leaders were with the rest of the country, and guess what? Gove, Johnson and co were all Westminster leaders too!
...!
But people on the Leave side of the debate...so as far as their high level stance is concerned, waaaaaaaaaaay more in touch than people like Cameron and Osborne. And they now know that there's a real need for politicians to listen and be transparent with reasoning.

Kermit power said:
...Cynical me suspects that they went into the campaign thinking that if they did win, they'd take over the reins of the Tory party, create a more right wing environment, deliver continued membership of the single market and the ensuing free movement of labour and do some tinkering around human rights and benefits payments to give the appearance of a brave new independent Britain which still kept most of the existing structures in place.

I think Gove and Johnson have been caught out by the strength of populist feeling just as much as anyone else, and are now crapping themselves at the thought of how on earth they're supposed to try and do anything with it, hence the Leave leaders being amongst the most vocal in saying "well hang on a minute, we don't have to hurry this"!
We'll see.

I'd personally have been far more worried if they'd rushed into the Article 50 stuff. Everyone acknowledges these are going to be difficult negotiations in many respects, and it's now important that the detail that everyone needs is covered. Why trigger the 2yr timetable now and have to worry about getting the team together as well as do the negotiations. It makes no sense. Jumping the gun like this causes massive issues (I make a living out of repairing complex programmes of work and one of the main factors for them being in bad shape in the first place is lack of preparedness like this, and piss poor governance and resourcing structures).

I wish Cameron hadn't bottled it. It would have been far better if he'd kept his hand on the tiller for "BAU" while another team (preferably cross party) set to the details. But he had his own reasons for that (which I doubt he'll be remembered fondly for). And we are where we are. Rushing now is no one's interests.

MarshPhantom

9,658 posts

138 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Trading in Barclays [-10%] and RBS [-15%} shares suspended following big falls this morning.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/barclays-...

Mr Whippy

29,080 posts

242 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
Trading in Barclays [-10%] and RBS [-15%} shares suspended following big falls this morning.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/barclays-...
The tin foil hatter in me thinks this referendum 'crisis' has been the perfect catalyst and scapegoat for triggering the next systemic economic collapse.

Had that collapse occured in isolation at a random time, it'd be clear the banks had simply failed to get their act in order and no one could have made a bit of cash on the side.
But against a backdrop of the referendum all the bailouts for Italy and Spain, and perhaps UK banks, can go about because 'democracy badness', rather than because 'crap banks', and those with insider information can play it for a few squid.

Dave

Murph7355

37,768 posts

257 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
...
Here is the comment (presented for interest):
...
I read it over the weekend. The only person who really knows is Boris. The piece throws up some interesting thoughts but they're loaded with bias of course.

I'm sure all the potential candidates have nerves about some aspects. Something this massive is bound to generate that. But let's see what happens smile (As noted above, I don't think a leadership contest is a sensible thing to be doing right now, but Cameron has his own motives. Let's just hope toys and prams aren't at the top...personally I think he's been looking for a reason to depart sooner rather than later ever since noting he wouldn't be the leader into the next election (family reasons perhaps?). I don't want to believe it's weakness, but that could be another reason (as could many things).

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

125 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
lostkiwi said:
...
Here is the comment (presented for interest):
...
I read it over the weekend. The only person who really knows is Boris. The piece throws up some interesting thoughts but they're loaded with bias of course.

I'm sure all the potential candidates have nerves about some aspects. Something this massive is bound to generate that. But let's see what happens smile (As noted above, I don't think a leadership contest is a sensible thing to be doing right now, but Cameron has his own motives. Let's just hope toys and prams aren't at the top...personally I think he's been looking for a reason to depart sooner rather than later ever since noting he wouldn't be the leader into the next election (family reasons perhaps?). I don't want to believe it's weakness, but that could be another reason (as could many things).
Yes agreed (and that doesn't happen with us often!).
The leadership vacuum in both main parties is doing no one any good.

Kermit power

28,696 posts

214 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
John145 said:
How many more times do people have to repeat the same nonsense to themselves in the hope it becomes the truth?

"Vast swatches voted to kick out europeans"

"Immigration was the key issue for most voters"

"Those that vote leave are uneducated and destroying the future of the next generation"


It was a population of people that voted for Brexit.

To label a population as racist, stupid, ignorant, whatever else is wrong.

When I consider politics I don't think about an individual, there will always be individuals who are stupid, populations of people are not. Infact populations of people tend to be of average intelligence.

The simple fact of the matter is, the argument for remain as presented failed to defeat the argument for leave.

Now the argument was lost, the electorate decided sovereignty was more important than short term economics.

Immigration is not a root cause, it is a symptom of a lack of sovereignty. The population realised this. The argument for control was won.

Any person who I have spoken to who voted remain I managed to defeat their arguments quite swiftly. They were mostly based on hopes and dreams that made Disney seem like real life.

If remain had won, let me ask, what would we be hearing on the news now with regards to the referendum? Nothing.

Nothing would be changing. We would pursue every closer union at the continued detriment of our democracy.

I also believe CMD's "agreed reforms" would fail to be integrated to the cries of you sold us a lie. There would be no impetus for the EU to reform as the UK agreed to become one with the EU wholly. Atleast that is how the EU would've seen the decision.

This was the right decision to leave. The argument was won. More than 17 million people believed in it.More than 17 million people took the risk, I'd further argue not only was the argument won but it has done so well it defeated the typical "status quo" that I genuinely believe most remainers were hoping for.
As you say, the population is made up of individuals, but there is one massive difference in this referendum to every other campaign we've ever seen in this country, and you're failing to take it into account.

That difference is, of course, that they bulk of the people who voted to leave have totally different life experiences, world views, political mindsets and everything else that matters to the people who have been leading the campaign.

If a Labour government were to win at the next general election, I'd think it would be something of a disaster because I know that Labour won't be doing anything for the likes of me other than raising my tax bill, but at least the people who voted for them will be happy, because they've voted for people with their interests at heart. And yes, I know, Tony Blair! But you do need an exception to prove a rule.

What's happened in this referendum is that they people who effectively voted for Johnson and Gove (and that is effectively what they've done, as that's where the leadership of this country is now heading) have absolutely nothing in common with them. Do you really, honestly think that they will do anything at all with the best interests of the people of Hartlepool in mind?

The people of Hartlepool have voted for people whose view of them is "right, what's the minimum I can get away with to make sure they don't come and try and ransack my house"? There is no way that the Johnson/Gove view of post EU life is going to marry up to that of the people of Hartlepool, regardless of those people's individual motivations for voting.

blueg33

36,036 posts

225 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
John145 said:
How many more times do people have to repeat the same nonsense to themselves in the hope it becomes the truth?

"Vast swatches voted to kick out europeans"

"Immigration was the key issue for most voters"

"Those that vote leave are uneducated and destroying the future of the next generation"


It was a population of people that voted for Brexit.

To label a population as racist, stupid, ignorant, whatever else is wrong.

When I consider politics I don't think about an individual, there will always be individuals who are stupid, populations of people are not. Infact populations of people tend to be of average intelligence.

The simple fact of the matter is, the argument for remain as presented failed to defeat the argument for leave.

Now the argument was lost, the electorate decided sovereignty was more important than short term economics.

Immigration is not a root cause, it is a symptom of a lack of sovereignty. The population realised this. The argument for control was won.

Any person who I have spoken to who voted remain I managed to defeat their arguments quite swiftly. They were mostly based on hopes and dreams that made Disney seem like real life.

If remain had won, let me ask, what would we be hearing on the news now with regards to the referendum? Nothing.

Nothing would be changing. We would pursue every closer union at the continued detriment of our democracy.

I also believe CMD's "agreed reforms" would fail to be integrated to the cries of you sold us a lie. There would be no impetus for the EU to reform as the UK agreed to become one with the EU wholly. Atleast that is how the EU would've seen the decision.

This was the right decision to leave. The argument was won. More than 17 million people believed in it.More than 17 million people took the risk, I'd further argue not only was the argument won but it has done so well it defeated the typical "status quo" that I genuinely believe most remainers were hoping for.
I voted remain. No one I know that voted leave has been able to present a coherent argument that I haven't been able to defeat relatively easily.

Of all my circle of friends and colleagues, I only know of one person who voted leave. That encompasses people in London, Gloucestershire, Manchester, Coventry, Warwickshire.

The people I have spoken to who said they would vote leave, were single issue, and that issue was immigration



MarshPhantom

9,658 posts

138 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
AJS- said:
Funny to hear remainers complaining that 52% isn't much of a mandate, when you consider that they never had a mandate to be in the EU in the first place.
Possibly because Farage said previously a 52% vote to stay would be unfinished business and he would fight for a second referendum.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-ref...


One rule for your guys, a different one for ours.

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

125 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
blueg33 said:
John145 said:
How many more times do people have to repeat the same nonsense to themselves in the hope it becomes the truth?

"Vast swatches voted to kick out europeans"

"Immigration was the key issue for most voters"

"Those that vote leave are uneducated and destroying the future of the next generation"


It was a population of people that voted for Brexit.

To label a population as racist, stupid, ignorant, whatever else is wrong.

When I consider politics I don't think about an individual, there will always be individuals who are stupid, populations of people are not. Infact populations of people tend to be of average intelligence.

The simple fact of the matter is, the argument for remain as presented failed to defeat the argument for leave.

Now the argument was lost, the electorate decided sovereignty was more important than short term economics.

Immigration is not a root cause, it is a symptom of a lack of sovereignty. The population realised this. The argument for control was won.

Any person who I have spoken to who voted remain I managed to defeat their arguments quite swiftly. They were mostly based on hopes and dreams that made Disney seem like real life.

If remain had won, let me ask, what would we be hearing on the news now with regards to the referendum? Nothing.

Nothing would be changing. We would pursue every closer union at the continued detriment of our democracy.

I also believe CMD's "agreed reforms" would fail to be integrated to the cries of you sold us a lie. There would be no impetus for the EU to reform as the UK agreed to become one with the EU wholly. Atleast that is how the EU would've seen the decision.

This was the right decision to leave. The argument was won. More than 17 million people believed in it.More than 17 million people took the risk, I'd further argue not only was the argument won but it has done so well it defeated the typical "status quo" that I genuinely believe most remainers were hoping for.
I voted remain. No one I know that voted leave has been able to present a coherent argument that I haven't been able to defeat relatively easily.

Of all my circle of friends and colleagues, I only know of one person who voted leave. That encompasses people in London, Gloucestershire, Manchester, Coventry, Warwickshire.

The people I have spoken to who said they would vote leave, were single issue, and that issue was immigration
That was my experience as well. That said my circle of friends tends to be professionals and white collar workers so not representative of the Brexit voters.

blueg33

36,036 posts

225 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
AJS- said:
Funny to hear remainers complaining that 52% isn't much of a mandate, when you consider that they never had a mandate to be in the EU in the first place.
Possibly because Farage said previously a 52% vote to stay would be unfinished business and he would fight for a second referendum.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-ref...


One rule for your guys, a different one for ours.
And the petition for a new referendum that has 3m signatures was started before the vote by an exit supporter who wanted a majority of over 60% for leave with a 75% turnout.

He is now complaining, what a hypocrite

Mr_B

10,480 posts

244 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
MarshPhantom said:
AJS- said:
Funny to hear remainers complaining that 52% isn't much of a mandate, when you consider that they never had a mandate to be in the EU in the first place.
Possibly because Farage said previously a 52% vote to stay would be unfinished business and he would fight for a second referendum.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-ref...


One rule for your guys, a different one for ours.
Sure you can have another, but only after the same 40 year gap. See ya in 40 years

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

171 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Kermit power said:
How do you figure that one out?

We were taken into the EU by a democratically elected government to whom we had granted a mandate at the ballot box, and therefore there was a mandate for joining the EU. That's how British politics works.

If you want all decisions large or small to be decided by direct referendum to ensure that they have a recognisable individual mandate, we're all going to be rather busy moving forwards!
As you well know the nature of the EU was entirely altered by subterfuge, Maastrict, Lisbon (in detail if not in name), were some of the latter instruments.

No one ever voted for a British government intending them to cede sovereignty to an EU dictatorship.
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