Lots of angry people today.
Discussion
don'tbesilly said:
In 1979 the majority of experts stated that the UK should join the ERM, and if we didn't the UK economy would collapse.
It didn't.
In 2016 we have experienced the same type of scaremongering that many experienced back in 1979, so perhaps you might be able to understand some of the doubts people have expressed in their views on 'experts'.
As for most brexiters taking into account what the experts said about a deal/conditions, I can't speak for all of them, there were simply too many, but of the brexiters I know personally, yes they knew what they were voting for and the potential pitfalls, if I asked them would they now change their vote, I don't think any of them would.
For the record no where have I said any trade deals with the EU will be better once negotiated now we have voted to leave, but I don't think for one moment that they will be any worse, I would hope they would be better.
My glass is half full, your glass is a quarter full despite clearly being at the mid point.
If you genuinely think we can get a better trade deal with the EU and that was (one) reason for you to brexit, I can respect that, even though I might ask "on what basis do you think that feasible?".It didn't.
In 2016 we have experienced the same type of scaremongering that many experienced back in 1979, so perhaps you might be able to understand some of the doubts people have expressed in their views on 'experts'.
As for most brexiters taking into account what the experts said about a deal/conditions, I can't speak for all of them, there were simply too many, but of the brexiters I know personally, yes they knew what they were voting for and the potential pitfalls, if I asked them would they now change their vote, I don't think any of them would.
For the record no where have I said any trade deals with the EU will be better once negotiated now we have voted to leave, but I don't think for one moment that they will be any worse, I would hope they would be better.
My glass is half full, your glass is a quarter full despite clearly being at the mid point.
If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
///ajd said:
don'tbesilly said:
In 1979 the majority of experts stated that the UK should join the ERM, and if we didn't the UK economy would collapse.
It didn't.
In 2016 we have experienced the same type of scaremongering that many experienced back in 1979, so perhaps you might be able to understand some of the doubts people have expressed in their views on 'experts'.
As for most brexiters taking into account what the experts said about a deal/conditions, I can't speak for all of them, there were simply too many, but of the brexiters I know personally, yes they knew what they were voting for and the potential pitfalls, if I asked them would they now change their vote, I don't think any of them would.
For the record no where have I said any trade deals with the EU will be better once negotiated now we have voted to leave, but I don't think for one moment that they will be any worse, I would hope they would be better.
My glass is half full, your glass is a quarter full despite clearly being at the mid point.
If you genuinely think we can get a better trade deal with the EU and that was (one) reason for you to brexit, I can respect that, even though I might ask "on what basis do you think that feasible?".It didn't.
In 2016 we have experienced the same type of scaremongering that many experienced back in 1979, so perhaps you might be able to understand some of the doubts people have expressed in their views on 'experts'.
As for most brexiters taking into account what the experts said about a deal/conditions, I can't speak for all of them, there were simply too many, but of the brexiters I know personally, yes they knew what they were voting for and the potential pitfalls, if I asked them would they now change their vote, I don't think any of them would.
For the record no where have I said any trade deals with the EU will be better once negotiated now we have voted to leave, but I don't think for one moment that they will be any worse, I would hope they would be better.
My glass is half full, your glass is a quarter full despite clearly being at the mid point.
If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
Your last sentence is quite illuminating, and goes hand in hand with what I actually wrote, and links quite nicely with my last comment.
I'd point you in the direction of your glass,it appears to have more content.
don'tbesilly said:
Please reread what I have written, before suggesting I stated something that I didn't.
Your last sentence is quite illuminating, and goes hand in hand with what I actually wrote, and links quite nicely with my last comment.
I'd point you in the direction of your glass,it appears to have more content.
You said you "don't think for one moment they'll be any worse & hope they would be better". I thought this meant you though there was a chance our EU trade deal could be better than it is now?Your last sentence is quite illuminating, and goes hand in hand with what I actually wrote, and links quite nicely with my last comment.
I'd point you in the direction of your glass,it appears to have more content.
I'd love to think we can persuade France and Germany to have better access to their own markets than their own Nation, but I have a feeling this possibility is just a tiny bit remote.
///ajd said:
If you genuinely think we can get a better trade deal with the EU and that was (one) reason for you to brexit, I can respect that, even though I might ask "on what basis do you think that feasible?".
If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
Why just focus on EU trade? As long as we remain within the EU, all our trade with the rest of the world must necessarily be conducted within a protectionist framework. If I'm right about protectionism being bad for trade (and I think that's a fairly mainstream view), logic would suggest that our RoW trade is underperforming. Think of it as a corporate restructuring for UK plc, ineptly planned and clumsily executed as such things usually are.If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
In any case, to say "the EU is our biggest market" is a little misleading. I doubt we sell very much to the EU at all - maybe a few high-tech massage chairs for the Commission offices. The rest of the trade is with individual companies in individual countries, and some of those markets will be tougher than others. High volume, low margin manufacturing would be heavily at risk, but are we really in that game any more? It would be interesting to know what we export to EU countries, and where, and most importantly why. That might give us some ability to start assessing the risk. At the moment it's just a big pile of unknowns, with fear and panic on one side and blind optimism on the other.
sidicks said:
Aren't you making the mistake that 'the City' is unanimous regarding the long term impact of Brexit.
Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
I don't think so. It looked to me like there was a strong consensus that the short to medium term impact would be significant on the downside, and 10 years out the economy would have adjusted and absorbed the slack, so the long term impact on potential growth is small. In effect a decade of pain for no gain. A few hedgers were more overly pro Leave, but I've yet to hear of anyone looking to a hedge fund for an economic forecast.Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
bmw535i said:
ATG said:
What makes you think any of the people on this thread who voted Remain are doing anything other than trying to improve the country?
Well I wouldn't say the widespread condemnation of leave voters as racist and thick is helpful to the country. Would you?
ATG said:
sidicks said:
Aren't you making the mistake that 'the City' is unanimous regarding the long term impact of Brexit.
Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
I don't think so. It looked to me like there was a strong consensus that the short to medium term impact would be significant on the downside, and 10 years out the economy would have adjusted and absorbed the slack, so the long term impact on potential growth is small. In effect a decade of pain for no gain. A few hedgers were more overly pro Leave, but I've yet to hear of anyone looking to a hedge fund for an economic forecast.Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
Nobody knows the future, the above post makes it appear signed sealed and delivered.
Ten years of don't know followed by more don't know - but then it was never all about economics.
ATG said:
bmw535i said:
ATG said:
What makes you think any of the people on this thread who voted Remain are doing anything other than trying to improve the country?
Well I wouldn't say the widespread condemnation of leave voters as racist and thick is helpful to the country. Would you?
ETA, I never said it hurt the country
turbobloke said:
ATG said:
sidicks said:
Aren't you making the mistake that 'the City' is unanimous regarding the long term impact of Brexit.
Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
I don't think so. It looked to me like there was a strong consensus that the short to medium term impact would be significant on the downside, and 10 years out the economy would have adjusted and absorbed the slack, so the long term impact on potential growth is small. In effect a decade of pain for no gain. A few hedgers were more overly pro Leave, but I've yet to hear of anyone looking to a hedge fund for an economic forecast.Isn't it simply the case that 'the markets' don't like uncertainty and, until Brexit terms are confirmed, that's exactly what we have...?
Nobody knows the future, the above post makes it appear signed sealed and delivered.
Ten years of don't know followed by more don't know - but then it was never all about economics.
PRTVR said:
blueg33 said:
Indeed, or didn't really understand the impact, or didn't listen to the warnings, or as is usual in this country just expected someone else to sort it out.
No doubt the Government will get the blame as the economy falters, unemployment rises etc
But it is the governments fault, not just this government but the previous government as well, who let manufacturing jobs go who let the economy become dependent on a single area, and not run a balanced economy, as an indication of how out of touch politicians are when the Redcar steel plant closed, the government sent Michael Heseltine along, there was an estimated 4000 job loses, he commented it was a good time to lose your job, I would imagine that there are a lot of areas of the UK really do not care, because they feel they have been ignored for a long time and maybe just maybe things will change now.No doubt the Government will get the blame as the economy falters, unemployment rises etc
230TE said:
///ajd said:
If you genuinely think we can get a better trade deal with the EU and that was (one) reason for you to brexit, I can respect that, even though I might ask "on what basis do you think that feasible?".
If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
Why just focus on EU trade? As long as we remain within the EU, all our trade with the rest of the world must necessarily be conducted within a protectionist framework. If I'm right about protectionism being bad for trade (and I think that's a fairly mainstream view), logic would suggest that our RoW trade is underperforming. Think of it as a corporate restructuring for UK plc, ineptly planned and clumsily executed as such things usually are.If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
In any case, to say "the EU is our biggest market" is a little misleading. I doubt we sell very much to the EU at all - maybe a few high-tech massage chairs for the Commission offices. The rest of the trade is with individual companies in individual countries, and some of those markets will be tougher than others. High volume, low margin manufacturing would be heavily at risk, but are we really in that game any more? It would be interesting to know what we export to EU countries, and where, and most importantly why. That might give us some ability to start assessing the risk. At the moment it's just a big pile of unknowns, with fear and panic on one side and blind optimism on the other.
The protectionism works for us too remember - we will feel that once outside. This is not a trivial matter on 44% of our exports.
Why do you doubt the EU takes 44% of our exports? Thats nearly £300Bn. "you doubt we sell very much?" Pardon?
Are we in the game of high volume low margin? Mini and Nissan are in that bracket I'd say. Possibly JLR and others.
Why put the market access for those successful companies at risk? They had no intention leaving whilst we were in the EU - lets hope we can give them the stability and conditions to want to stay. I hope that is a priority of brexit negotiations.
sidicks said:
blueg33 said:
Except Brexit supporters said the EU wasn't important as a market! Can't have it both ways.
'They' did? When?Several here parroted him accordingly.
///ajd said:
Hannan couldn't stop himself from talking it down as in decline etc. and was painting it as irrelevant and withering away to nothing.
Several here parroted him accordingly.
It is certainly on the decline - the figures spread for themselves, that doesn't meant it isn't important.Several here parroted him accordingly.
blueg33 said:
PRTVR said:
blueg33 said:
Indeed, or didn't really understand the impact, or didn't listen to the warnings, or as is usual in this country just expected someone else to sort it out.
No doubt the Government will get the blame as the economy falters, unemployment rises etc
But it is the governments fault, not just this government but the previous government as well, who let manufacturing jobs go who let the economy become dependent on a single area, and not run a balanced economy, as an indication of how out of touch politicians are when the Redcar steel plant closed, the government sent Michael Heseltine along, there was an estimated 4000 job loses, he commented it was a good time to lose your job, I would imagine that there are a lot of areas of the UK really do not care, because they feel they have been ignored for a long time and maybe just maybe things will change now.No doubt the Government will get the blame as the economy falters, unemployment rises etc
///ajd said:
The discussion is only about our EU trade relationship - 44% of our exports.
The protectionism works for us too remember - we will feel that once outside. This is not a trivial matter on 44% of our exports.
Why do you doubt the EU takes 44% of our exports? Thats nearly £300Bn. "you doubt we sell very much?" Pardon?
Are we in the game of high volume low margin? Mini and Nissan are in that bracket I'd say. Possibly JLR and others.
Why put the market access for those successful companies at risk? They had no intention leaving whilst we were in the EU - lets hope we can give them the stability and conditions to want to stay. I hope that is a priority of brexit negotiations.
Read my post again, properly this time. Then you can delete the questions which display a complete failure to understand what I wrote, and I'll respond to the remaining one. OK?The protectionism works for us too remember - we will feel that once outside. This is not a trivial matter on 44% of our exports.
Why do you doubt the EU takes 44% of our exports? Thats nearly £300Bn. "you doubt we sell very much?" Pardon?
Are we in the game of high volume low margin? Mini and Nissan are in that bracket I'd say. Possibly JLR and others.
Why put the market access for those successful companies at risk? They had no intention leaving whilst we were in the EU - lets hope we can give them the stability and conditions to want to stay. I hope that is a priority of brexit negotiations.
///ajd said:
230TE said:
///ajd said:
If you genuinely think we can get a better trade deal with the EU and that was (one) reason for you to brexit, I can respect that, even though I might ask "on what basis do you think that feasible?".
If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
Why just focus on EU trade? As long as we remain within the EU, all our trade with the rest of the world must necessarily be conducted within a protectionist framework. If I'm right about protectionism being bad for trade (and I think that's a fairly mainstream view), logic would suggest that our RoW trade is underperforming. Think of it as a corporate restructuring for UK plc, ineptly planned and clumsily executed as such things usually are.If I thought for one second we could get a better trade deal with the EU by brexiting, that may have even made me consider brexit.
In any case, to say "the EU is our biggest market" is a little misleading. I doubt we sell very much to the EU at all - maybe a few high-tech massage chairs for the Commission offices. The rest of the trade is with individual companies in individual countries, and some of those markets will be tougher than others. High volume, low margin manufacturing would be heavily at risk, but are we really in that game any more? It would be interesting to know what we export to EU countries, and where, and most importantly why. That might give us some ability to start assessing the risk. At the moment it's just a big pile of unknowns, with fear and panic on one side and blind optimism on the other.
The protectionism works for us too remember - we will feel that once outside. This is not a trivial matter on 44% of our exports.
Why do you doubt the EU takes 44% of our exports? Thats nearly £300Bn. "you doubt we sell very much?" Pardon?
Are we in the game of high volume low margin? Mini and Nissan are in that bracket I'd say. Possibly JLR and others.
Why put the market access for those successful companies at risk? They had no intention leaving whilst we were in the EU - lets hope we can give them the stability and conditions to want to stay. I hope that is a priority of brexit negotiations.
The original question was whether we would get a worse/same/better deal with the EU than we have now. Can you given your view on that?
///ajd said:
Are we in the game of high volume low margin? Mini and Nissan are in that bracket I'd say. Possibly JLR and others.
///ajd said:
You did try and say we're not in high volume low margin but that's not really the case is it? What would you call a Nissan Qashqai?
I haven't ignored your last response to the earlier posts,which I'll come back to, but I'm confused by your comments above.Whilst the cars you've mentioned above may well be produced in large volumes, it doesn't necessarily follow that they are low margin.
Are you suggesting that because a car has a low MRP that it automatically follows that it has a low margin?
Can you explain what point you are trying to get across in your two edited posts above please.
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