2nd Referendum please - I don't like how that one panned out
Discussion
Gogoplata said:
Diderot said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
CrutyRammers said:
Ireland did it. The Netherlands have just done it. Greece did it. It's not exactly unusual in matters eu for a public vote to be overridden.
No chance Westminster will try to over turn the will of 17,000,000 people.Besides a Major Party manifesto mightn't have quite a strong mandate given that Scotland & Northern Ireland voters would be out of the equation.
Robertj21a said:
VolvoT5 said:
OK, so the Tory leadership contest is going to take 3-4 months. Now just imagine during that time a political vacuum occurs and Nicola Sturgeon is pushing for independence / union break up, the uncertainty continues to hammer the markets and business, the press continue their relentless daily doomsaying, the promises the leave campaign made start to unravel and many Brexit voters start to realise the implications of leaving and the euphoria of 'victory' fades. During this time there will be regular polling showing that the support for Brexit has dropped well under 45% and many many 'Bregret' stories will be on the news.
By the time the new conservative leader has been crowned it would not be beyond possibility for them to decide the *must* hold a vote in parliament because of all the above changes. Alternatively they might say they will need to have another election before doing anything to get a mandate. After the election (now into 2017) they could invoke article 50, negotiate terms but then decide we *must* have a referendum on the exit terms. Remain problem solved.
Is it really that deluded to think events could unfold like this? When politicians and the media conspire it is possible for them to make almost anything seem reasonable and fair.
Have you been on the bottle this afternoon ?By the time the new conservative leader has been crowned it would not be beyond possibility for them to decide the *must* hold a vote in parliament because of all the above changes. Alternatively they might say they will need to have another election before doing anything to get a mandate. After the election (now into 2017) they could invoke article 50, negotiate terms but then decide we *must* have a referendum on the exit terms. Remain problem solved.
Is it really that deluded to think events could unfold like this? When politicians and the media conspire it is possible for them to make almost anything seem reasonable and fair.
article said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
It is ludicrous to think there'll be another referendum. That would essentially be like Parliament telling 17million UK voters many of whom apparently voted for Leave at least partly because they felt as if they no longer had a voice, sorry we aren't actually going to listen to you because you didn't vote the way we told you to. Whether the referendum is legally binding, whether 3, 5, 10 or 20 million people sign some petition and whether we like it or not, to ignore the result of a referendum that over 30 million people voted in would be the end of democracy as we know it here. It will never happen.
easytiger123 said:
It is ludicrous to think there'll be another referendum. That would essentially be like Parliament telling 17million UK voters many of whom apparently voted for Leave at least partly because they felt as if they no longer had a voice, sorry we aren't actually going to listen to you because you didn't vote the way we told you to. Whether the referendum is legally binding, whether 3, 5, 10 or 20 million people sign some petition and whether we like it or not, to ignore the result of a referendum that over 30 million people voted in would be the end of democracy as we know it here. It will never happen.
I voted remain and agree entirely. But I think something will happen to stop it. Maybe not a referendum but I think it'll just fade away through a long drawn out process somehow.
I don't put anything past any of them.
Zigster said:
I can't see another referendum happening, although it amuses me that the petition in question was started some time ago by a Brexiteer who thought we'd have a Remain vote and who is now trying to distance himself from the petition.
What I do think will happen is that we will leave the EU but in a Norway/Switzerland kind of way. So there will be no change in practice except that we will no longer have a place at the table in debating new rules and will simply accept whatever crap the EU comes up with. And that will still be a better outcome than a full-blown, toys out of the pram, exit from the EU which some Brexiteers might have envisaged.
I read somewhere that it had 22 signatures prior to the leave announcement What I do think will happen is that we will leave the EU but in a Norway/Switzerland kind of way. So there will be no change in practice except that we will no longer have a place at the table in debating new rules and will simply accept whatever crap the EU comes up with. And that will still be a better outcome than a full-blown, toys out of the pram, exit from the EU which some Brexiteers might have envisaged.
TX.
VolvoT5 said:
Robertj21a said:
Are you being serious, or just amusing the rest of us ?
I'm serious...... I believe there is no bar below which our current politicians will crawl in order to get their own way. They will delay article 50 as long as possible and somehow find a way to ask the public again....... hey presto problem solved. I can just see Theresa May or Nicky Morgan lubing up the UK public ready for the re-entry negotiations now. Big companies like Ford, Nissan, Toyota Honda, the electonics manufacturers and the banks, insurance companies and hedge fund managers to make initial plans to move from the UK; Scotland and NI can kick up a s
tload of trouble, strife and instability whilst Spain can mess with Gibraltar; The EU Nations can play hardball with regards to free trade and the markets can sell sell sell driving down the values of our pensions and investments. Big business, big money, big government will prevail. I saw it at work on day one. I work in construction. Friday at my work we were called into a meeting where we were told that the company's core projects are inner city regeneration programs. A lot of the jobs involve the reclaimation and development of brownfield sites which are not financially viable due to prohibitive land remediation (soil decontamination) costs. Till now we have been able to make the jobs pay thanks to EU regional funding. All our ongoing work is safe but every contract for future works had a "Brexit" clause leaving them null and void and my employer with no work from about a year and a half on.
As all is now all up in the air we were informed that as of immediate effect and for an indefinite term there will be no training courses, no new plant, no replacing of any staff who leave, no promotions, no changes in terms and conditions, no pay rises, no new plant and that all car and van leases will be extended leaving us in our old vehicles rather than getting new ones.
The majority for Brexit isn't that big and within said group will be an element whose conviction isn't that strong. It wont take that many waverers who'll have the s
t scared out of them by employers, have seen investment funds take a hit, see instability in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar and think "fk this, this more trouble than it's worth". Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
Tannedbaldhead said:
Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
A new referendum is very unlikely.If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
In the previous referendum, the Leave vote was 51.9% so to your degree of accuracy that's 52% not 51% which was no doubt accidental.
In a referendum there doesn't have to be a specified margin, it's a binary choice and the winning side wins. To set aside a perfectly clear indication from a high turnout of over 30 million voters would stand democracy on its head. You may have voted Remain and be very disappointed at the result but what you and others are suggesting is little better than totalitarianism and that's what many people voted to Leave.
Democracy must not be allowed to be circumvented.
Tannedbaldhead said:
....
Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
^ This is what I was getting at. I know it sounds a bit tin foil hat but I'm pretty sure only 1 in 50 voters would have to change their mind in a second referendum. Plus turn out amongst young people who generally vote remain was poor, my guess is more of them could be mobilised a second time around once they realise the importance. There would probably not be as much enthusiasm in the leave camp second time around either. My guess is remain would win very easily. Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
Meanwhile, back in the real world ... before "Independence Day", there were numerous statements going around about new measures/announcements which the EU had put on hold until after the referendum. I think that one of them was about the proposed EU army. Can anyone remind me what they all were, and when they were to be expected ?
Tannedbaldhead said:
A sort of project fear phase 2.... Make it real.
Big companies like Ford, Nissan, Toyota Honda, the electonics manufacturers and the banks, insurance companies and hedge fund managers to make initial plans to move from the UK; Scotland and NI can kick up a stload of trouble, strife and instability whilst Spain can mess with Gibraltar; The EU Nations can play hardball with regards to free trade and the markets can sell sell sell driving down the values of our pensions and investments. Big business, big money, big government will prevail.
I saw it at work on day one. I work in construction. Friday at my work we were called into a meeting where we were told that the company's core projects are inner city regeneration programs. A lot of the jobs involve the reclaimation and development of brownfield sites which are not financially viable due to prohibitive land remediation (soil decontamination) costs. Till now we have been able to make the jobs pay thanks to EU regional funding. All our ongoing work is safe but every contract for future works had a "Brexit" clause leaving them null and void and my employer with no work from about a year and a half on.
As all is now all up in the air we were informed that as of immediate effect and for an indefinite term there will be no training courses, no new plant, no replacing of any staff who leave, no promotions, no changes in terms and conditions, no pay rises, no new plant and that all car and van leases will be extended leaving us in our old vehicles rather than getting new ones.
The majority for Brexit isn't that big and within said group will be an element whose conviction isn't that strong. It wont take that many waverers who'll have the st scared out of them by employers, have seen investment funds take a hit, see instability in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar and think "fk this, this more trouble than it's worth".
Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
I wouldn't so much call it Project Fear 2 as Project Stark Reality. Voting Leave and risking hypothetical job losses, pay cuts/freezes, loss of business etc in the short term for potential long term (5+ years) benefits is one thing, but when it knocks on your door it must be quite another. I wouldn't be at all surprised that if Brexit is binned, in a few years the majority of the country looks back and breathes a collective sigh of relief, with a fair few of that number thinking "yes I would have liked to leave, was passionate about it and still am, but staying is the lesser of 2 evils".Big companies like Ford, Nissan, Toyota Honda, the electonics manufacturers and the banks, insurance companies and hedge fund managers to make initial plans to move from the UK; Scotland and NI can kick up a s
tload of trouble, strife and instability whilst Spain can mess with Gibraltar; The EU Nations can play hardball with regards to free trade and the markets can sell sell sell driving down the values of our pensions and investments. Big business, big money, big government will prevail. I saw it at work on day one. I work in construction. Friday at my work we were called into a meeting where we were told that the company's core projects are inner city regeneration programs. A lot of the jobs involve the reclaimation and development of brownfield sites which are not financially viable due to prohibitive land remediation (soil decontamination) costs. Till now we have been able to make the jobs pay thanks to EU regional funding. All our ongoing work is safe but every contract for future works had a "Brexit" clause leaving them null and void and my employer with no work from about a year and a half on.
As all is now all up in the air we were informed that as of immediate effect and for an indefinite term there will be no training courses, no new plant, no replacing of any staff who leave, no promotions, no changes in terms and conditions, no pay rises, no new plant and that all car and van leases will be extended leaving us in our old vehicles rather than getting new ones.
The majority for Brexit isn't that big and within said group will be an element whose conviction isn't that strong. It wont take that many waverers who'll have the s
t scared out of them by employers, have seen investment funds take a hit, see instability in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar and think "fk this, this more trouble than it's worth". Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
VolvoT5 said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
....
Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
^ This is what I was getting at. I know it sounds a bit tin foil hat but I'm pretty sure only 1 in 50 voters would have to change their mind in a second referendum. Plus turn out amongst young people who generally vote remain was poor, my guess is more of them could be mobilised a second time around once they realise the importance. There would probably not be as much enthusiasm in the leave camp second time around either. My guess is remain would win very easily. Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
When Bliar was elected we had that Devil's Eyes election poster, he kept smiling and got elected, can those of us who said 'I told you so' get him de-elected and 13 years of Labour incompetence erased - no.
The willingness of some folks to abandon the democractic process until it delivers their preferred result, for a series of irrelevant reasons, is shameful. There's no better alternative available and we abandon it at our peril.
One of the reasons people move to do business in the UK and/or invest here in other ways is because we have a stable political system in terms of how democracy is exercised. Abandoning democracy for expedience at the hands of people who are basically sore losers would be disastrous.
turbobloke said:
Tannedbaldhead said:
Don't believe me? Think about it. We were looking at a 51/49 majority on Thursday. Of that 51% how many shat themselves on Friday after thinking it would never happen? How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds? How many partners or wives who voted leave "coz they weren't sure but it felt right" will maintain their resolve if their significant other comes home and says "pay rise and bonus has been cancelled and I might be out a job with a year".
If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
A new referendum is very unlikely.If a new referendum is engineered can you be confident Brexit will be the result?
In the previous referendum, the Leave vote was 51.9% so to your degree of accuracy that's 52% not 51% which was no doubt accidental.
In a referendum there doesn't have to be a specified margin, it's a binary choice and the winning side wins. To set aside a perfectly clear indication from a high turnout of over 30 million voters would stand democracy on its head. You may have voted Remain and be very disappointed at the result but what you and others are suggesting is little better than totalitarianism and that's what many people voted to Leave.
Democracy must not be allowed to be circumvented.
Tannedbaldhead said:
How many boys are in the same boat as our soil samplers and analysts who have been told that the Leave vote cost them their new Nissan Navaras leaving them stuck in their 3 year old Berlingos might change their minds?
Oh the humanity!How will the world survive when soil samplers have to plod around in Citroen Berlingo's!
If you're that easily bribed into casting your vote then maybe you shouldn't really have a say.
turbobloke said:
A new referendum is very unlikely.
In the previous referendum, the Leave vote was 51.9% so to your degree of accuracy that's 52% not 51% which was no doubt accidental.
In a referendum there doesn't have to be a specified margin, it's a binary choice and the winning side wins. To set aside a perfectly clear indication from a high turnout of over 30 million voters would stand democracy on its head. You may have voted Remain and be very disappointed at the result but what you and others are suggesting is little better than totalitarianism and that's what many people voted to Leave.
Democracy must not be allowed to be circumvented.
Sounds bout right.In the previous referendum, the Leave vote was 51.9% so to your degree of accuracy that's 52% not 51% which was no doubt accidental.
In a referendum there doesn't have to be a specified margin, it's a binary choice and the winning side wins. To set aside a perfectly clear indication from a high turnout of over 30 million voters would stand democracy on its head. You may have voted Remain and be very disappointed at the result but what you and others are suggesting is little better than totalitarianism and that's what many people voted to Leave.
Democracy must not be allowed to be circumvented.
Imagine if it has ended with Remain on 51.9% and the Leavers wanting a re-run. They'd all be branded hopeful loons.
There's a large number of people who need a slap in the chops at the moment.
VolvoT5 said:
^ This is what I was getting at. I know it sounds a bit tin foil hat but I'm pretty sure only 1 in 50 voters would have to change their mind in a second referendum. Plus turn out amongst young people who generally vote remain was poor, my guess is more of them could be mobilised a second time around once they realise the importance. There would probably not be as much enthusiasm in the leave camp second time around either. My guess is remain would win very easily.
My guess is you are dead wrong. Telling people sorry, you didn't do what you were told by the grown-ups the first time so now we're having a do-over, will spark a complete revolt against all forms of political parties and government in this country and vote Leave would become a vast popular movement that would win by a bigger margin just to see if some career politicians would dare defy the electorate a second time. easytiger123 said:
VolvoT5 said:
^ This is what I was getting at. I know it sounds a bit tin foil hat but I'm pretty sure only 1 in 50 voters would have to change their mind in a second referendum. Plus turn out amongst young people who generally vote remain was poor, my guess is more of them could be mobilised a second time around once they realise the importance. There would probably not be as much enthusiasm in the leave camp second time around either. My guess is remain would win very easily.
My guess is you are dead wrong. Telling people sorry, you didn't do what you were told by the grown-ups the first time so now we're having a do-over, will spark a complete revolt against all forms of political parties and government in this country and vote Leave would become a vast popular movement that would win by a bigger margin just to see if some career politicians would dare defy the electorate a second time. If people voted the way they did because they were fed up of being told what to do and taken for granted and - in some cases - lied to, the idea that abandoning the democractic process simply because in the final analysis the losers don't like losing is nothing but foolishness. Being told that they got it wrong and do it again until you get it right...it sounds like the EU, and with that thought the Leave vote may well increase due to more anger at being told what to do yet again and not being listened to yet again. Madness.
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