2nd Referendum please - I don't like how that one panned out

[Hub]

desolate said:

Pesty said:

adam quantrill said:

There's an emergency eu summit this weekend or next week.

By bet is they will discuss terms to put to the UK to remain.

The deal will be put to the UK.

Then you will get your second referendum.

No deals would start a flood of others leaving to get better deals. It's not like sky say you're leaving and get 3 months free.

My 'bet' is that they keep telling us to fk off, and to fk off quickly. this will go on for a bit and people will get all shirty.
then after what feels like a lifetime we will all agree a cobbled together compromise and life will go on almost exactly the same as before, just with one less star on the blue flag.

I really hope I am wrong.

Yes, you mean like a trade deal that includes free movement of labour? Would probably be their terms and we'd probably have no choice but to agree.

[anonymous-user]

Cameron is a smart guy, By handing in his notice yas meaht that the start of the EU leave process is delayed, until after a hasty GE in the autumn,
I reckon that EU remain pledge will be on offer by one of the major parties, Not a new referendum, Just tear up the referendum 'advice'

Could easily see labour or even Liberal democrats having a say

[speedy_thrills]

adam quantrill said:

There's an emergency eu summit this weekend or next week.

By bet is they will discuss terms to put to the UK to remain.

The deal will be put to the UK.

Then you will get your second referendum.

One certainty now is that people hoping that an out vote would lead to further negotiations definitely miscalculated the feeling in other EU countries. They want to rip the plaster off as quickly as possible and have requested the UK expedite it's notification to the European Council to invoke Article 50.

Worth a reread of the articles:

Article 50 said:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Article 238 said:

3. The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union's negotiating team.

[turbobloke]

Jimboka said:

Cameron is a smart guy, By handing in his notice yas meaht that the start of the EU leave process is delayed, until after a hasty GE in the autumn,
I reckon that EU remain pledge will be on offer by one of the major parties, Not a new referendum, Just tear up the referendum 'advice'

Could easily see labour or even Liberal democrats having a say

As in, losers don't like losing twice so look to circumvent the will of the people. That'll work well. CMD tried hocus pocus with the recent referendum and that went south. The new Conservative Party leader / PM is just as likely to do a John Major: see the term out, then win the next GE with the odds, polls, 'experts' and handful of PH left-field players getting it wrong once more.

[272BHP]

All that jazz said:

My predictions :

- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.

I think something along those lines could well happen. I do expect Corbyn to be replaced with Miliband (the real one) by the party conference. Him and Hillary Clinton are best buddies apparently and they will have been putting some plans together.

[silent ninja]

Mr Tidy said:

Sorry to disagree, but I read somewhere last week that the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.

Would the EU still be number 2 without us?

If I ran a business I would target at least the top 10 anyway, so that if one goes elsewhere you still have significant market share!

As a net EU contributor I think the EU needs us more than we need them!

Since we buy more from the EU than they buy from us I would have thought they might quite like to continue trading with us!?

In the economic world the UK is still a major player - we just need to grow some b*lls, then use them!

Our buying power is dwindling day by day. The EU is much larger than us and can absorb the small loss versus us absorbing a massive shock. Bottom line is yes they'd like to continue doing business, but it's absolutely not in their interest to do it on terms that favour us, nor on terms that encourage other member states to follow suite. So essentially , what we will get is a worse deal than we have now. The big question is how much worse this deal will be and what will the fallout be? The working class who voted out of Europe will be hit first and hardest. Dismissing these genuine issues as 'project fear' was a despicable move by Leave. I feel a good portion of the electorate were misled, but we're all in it together now.

We all hate bankers, but once London is stripped of it's rights to sell financial services on behalf of Europe , which provide astronomical income to the treasury, we're gonna see major reverberations around the country. Our economy is likely to shrink and fall behind France and India. All the credit agencies are already downgrading us.

Edited by silent ninja on Saturday 25th June 08:50

[Steve H]

All that jazz said:

My predictions :

- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.

In these circumstance the UKIP vote would be absolutely huge.

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

Jimboka said:

Cameron is a smart guy, By handing in his notice yas meaht that the start of the EU leave process is delayed, until after a hasty GE in the autumn,
I reckon that EU remain pledge will be on offer by one of the major parties, Not a new referendum, Just tear up the referendum 'advice'

Could easily see labour or even Liberal democrats having a say

As in, losers don't like losing twice so look to circumvent the will of the people. That'll work well. CMD tried hocus pocus with the recent referendum and that went south. The new Conservative Party leader / PM is just as likely to do a John Major: see the term out, then win the next GE with the odds, polls, 'experts' and handful of PH left-field players getting it wrong once more.

Effectively the Conservative leadership contest could be a second referendum.. Boris wins, press the self destruct button. Theresa wins, thinks this is madness, back to the country GE.
LDs gain a shed load of MPs in some Conservative & Labour areas. Tear up the referendum advice note. Back to normality!

[Pan Pan Pan]

ash73 said:

The country is suffering from buyer's remorse!

And a hefty dose of sour grapes it would seem/

[wiggy001]

R8Steve said:

Ironically, Farage was calling for this last week if they lost 52-48.

Did he? Link?

I thought he said there would be "unfinished business" if the result was close. The call for a second vote proves him right doesn't it?

[turbobloke]

Jimboka said:

turbobloke said:

Jimboka said:

Cameron is a smart guy, By handing in his notice yas meaht that the start of the EU leave process is delayed, until after a hasty GE in the autumn,
I reckon that EU remain pledge will be on offer by one of the major parties, Not a new referendum, Just tear up the referendum 'advice'

Could easily see labour or even Liberal democrats having a say

As in, losers don't like losing twice so look to circumvent the will of the people. That'll work well. CMD tried hocus pocus with the recent referendum and that went south. The new Conservative Party leader / PM is just as likely to do a John Major: see the term out, then win the next GE with the odds, polls, 'experts' and handful of PH left-field players getting it wrong once more.

Effectively the Conservative leadership contest could be a second referendum.. Boris wins, press the self destruct button. Theresa wins, thinks this is madness, back to the country GE.
LDs gain a shed load of MPs in some Conservative & Labour areas. Tear up the referendum advice note. Back to normality!

Then the alarm clock goes off, wake-up time, dreams fade away.

[Crafty_]

chow pan toon said:

Joratk said:

Someone on my Facebook shared the petition to have a rerun and I questioned would they sign the petition if the vote went in their favour (ie. remain), they replied "no because I would have got the result I wanted" and that they are only signing the petition as it's in favour of their views. Seems a democracy only works when the lefties get their way. Couldn't make it up (or could you?).

Yeah, fking lefties

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-...

Funnily enough this was exactly what Farage was asking for if the vote han't gone his way. Don't kid yourself for aone moment that the "fknig righties" are any better.

[CrutyRammers]

All that jazz said:

My predictions :

- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.

I called that a month or so ago. It'd certainly be a brave move, but I think it's a definate possibility. Enough people would never dream of voting ukip to make it viable, I think.

[adam quantrill]

Hub said:

Yes, you mean like a trade deal that includes free movement of labour? Would probably be their terms and we'd probably have no choice but to agree.

I didn't want to get drawn back into this but...

My preference is "no trade deal" == WTO standard terms.

This means bilateral tariffs for EU import/exports.

At the moment we are running a £93bn/yr deficit with the EU in trade in tangible goods. Around £1.8Bn sterling a WEEK flows out of the UK into the EU to pay for this. (Kind of dwarfs the £350m argument doesn't it?)

A dose of trade tariffs will reduce our appetite for imports from the EU.* Downsides are a 3-6% one-off blip in the cost of living, maybe a little less, and to-EU exports will suffer a little too.

Do note that services exports are intangible by definition. You will need to look up the use of tariffs under WTO deals to get a feel for how much this sector will be affected.

Politicians have started waking up to this notion, I heard Salmond allude to it yesterday.

• The reason I came to this conclusion is that our UK-world trade volume (excluding the EU part) is a little higher but the deficit here is only £12Bn/yr

Edited by adam quantrill on Saturday 25th June 12:20

[speedy_thrills]

A lot of modern trade deals are collectivized agreements have been favored where groups of countries negotiate FTAs on a regional basis (the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement for example) but unfortunately for the UK these usually come with political agreements about such things as labour rights, state ownership of industry and environmental standards. So I don't know how eager the UK would be to enter such binding agreements as these where concerns expressed about being in the EU, the UK may have already precluded itself from such large scale agreements.

[eharding]

Steve H said:

All that jazz said:

My predictions :

- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.

In these circumstance the UKIP vote would be absolutely huge.

Probably large enough to put the Conservatives out of office, and install a post-Corbyn Labour / SNP coalition with a pro-EU mandate.

At which point, PH will detonate with a force not seen since Krakatoa went pop.

[alfie2244]

Steve H said:

All that jazz said:

My predictions :

- Article 50 won't happen.
- Vote of no confidence in the government will happen.
- Election will be called with Labour and Con both supporting EU in.
- One or the other of them will predictably win so we'll be back in the EU.
- Much toy throwing and dummy spitting will happen.
- The EU Party Bus will continue with the "unification process" and ultimately nothing will have changed.

In these circumstance the UKIP vote would be absolutely huge.

Huge indeed and the cynic in me thinks his predictions will not be far off coming true..... bit of a stitch up all round that went a bit wrong when the vote went leave IMO.

[Mr GrimNasty]

A petition for a second referendum is as stupid as a petition for a rerun of a general election, just because you don't like the result.

Of course loads of people have signed it, there's lots of sore losers who can't accept democracy.

They're the same ones that moan that the Tory government has a democratic deficit, and yet didn't moan when the Labour democratic deficit was even greater.

As for us not being out of the EU until we're out, I too wouldn't be surprised by any establishment chicanery.

[turbobloke]

Mr GrimNasty said:

A petition for a second referendum is as stupid as a petition for a rerun of a general election, just because you don't like the result.

If it helps the Remainians feel better let them get on with signing a petition - meaningless stuff but it may do some good.

Mr GrimNasty said:

Of course loads of people have signed it, there's lots of sore losers who can't accept democracy.

The teddy-out-of-pram reaction is hardly a surprise. As you say, there are people still whining about the General Election result.

Mr GrimNasty said:

As for us not being out of the EU until we're out, I too wouldn't be surprised by any establishment chicanery.

Me neither and CMD's delay may be an early aspect of this. However come what may our relationship with the EU has changed for the better from the UK perspective. The mix of arrogance and incompetence at EU HQ is sticking its brass neck out to poohpooh the UK while pooing its pants at the queue of nations building up at the exit.

Self-inflicted.

[Smollet]