Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result
Discussion
Sway said:
Indeed. Along with the fact that Norway does have single market access for financial services, yet applies import taxes on French cheese... Note that I mentioned a free trade deal, not SM access! These are fundamentally different, as is the difference between being a member of EEA and EFTA - chalk and cheese despite most EFTA members also being EEA members.
All these 'facts' show is that there is no basis for absolute assertions for any non EU member's relationship with the EU. Each has its own deal, nuanced and differentiated by different factors.
Which rather supports the view that prior to negotiations commencing, everything is truly on the table - the perfect solution in the eyes of many (full SM access, no FOM, no membership payments, freedom to deal and influence on a global level) through to the worst case.
You really think the cake and east it option is on the table? - SM, no FOM, no payments, ability to do own deals?All these 'facts' show is that there is no basis for absolute assertions for any non EU member's relationship with the EU. Each has its own deal, nuanced and differentiated by different factors.
Which rather supports the view that prior to negotiations commencing, everything is truly on the table - the perfect solution in the eyes of many (full SM access, no FOM, no membership payments, freedom to deal and influence on a global level) through to the worst case.
Which of the other nations would a) let that happen and b) not immediately demand it themselves?
There will be compromise without question. I think it 99% likely May and Hammond will insist on SM at any cost. There is enough info out there to join the dots on what will get compromised as a result.
Sway said:
jjlynn27 said:
Sway said:
Under EEA it's unlikely, although already mooted...
Under EFTA then there really isn't a basis for FMOL - other than the Swiss signing up to it but including their restrictions which they now want to increase further. The restrictions they've applied for years were acceptable to the EU, the newly proposed ones aren't.
Which demonstrates that there is a significant degree of flexibility in application of FOML when applied to an EFTA member with a free trade deal.
Apart from the fact that they don't have access to sm for most services including financial.Under EFTA then there really isn't a basis for FMOL - other than the Swiss signing up to it but including their restrictions which they now want to increase further. The restrictions they've applied for years were acceptable to the EU, the newly proposed ones aren't.
Which demonstrates that there is a significant degree of flexibility in application of FOML when applied to an EFTA member with a free trade deal.
All these 'facts' show is that there is no basis for absolute assertions for any non EU member's relationship with the EU. Each has its own deal, nuanced and differentiated by different factors.
Which rather supports the view that prior to negotiations commencing, everything is truly on the table - the perfect solution in the eyes of many (full SM access, no FOM, no membership payments, freedom to deal and influence on a global level) through to the worst case.
andymadmak said:
SilverSixer said:
Fast druid is re-writing history. Plenty of polls before 23rd June had Remain in the lead, and let's not forget it was a fairly major surprise to just about everyone that Leave won. Leave was only showing ahead in polls near the end of the campaign, it was never in the lead before Boris and chums started their full campaign of misinformation, including the NHS gibberish.
I think you are mistaken. In fact i think you may have it the wrong way round completely. All the detailed data I have seen showed that Brexit had a lead right up to the last minute. It was only the final polls before the vote itself that showed Remain in the lead (this was after the Jo Cox murder) and even then the lead was only narrow. The surprise on the day that Brexit won was, possibly, driven by the fact that the final polls had shown Remain in the lead, and many assumed that the Jo Cox effect would prove to be decisive.
Fastdruid has provided the link to the data I read.http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/eu-referendum-polls/
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
SilverSixer said:
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Blaa bla bla, and a Golden Unicorn will fly in through the window and give you £50 and a blowjob. Remain lost. No one is talking about an R2, or anything other than a BREXIT. The % of people supporting any kind of re-vote is collapsing. You the Guardian and the Ivory Tower at the BBC can think what you like, it's not going to happen. SilverSixer said:
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears.
Mr_B said:
This fighting the referendum result has more than a whiff of the Japanese guy still in the jungle 30 years after the end of the war and who only surrendered when his old commanding officer went in to tell him it was over. Maybe we need a PH broadcast from Nick Clegg to lay down those EU flags and let it go.
Calling Clegg! SilverSixer said:
Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement.
As posted previously, the lies from both sides appear to have done very little to influence the outcome. After the great heat and little light of the campaign, the 4% Leave margin is very close to what it was before the campaigning started.Here it is, from that very same LSE link.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/files/201...
Timmy40 said:
SilverSixer said:
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Blaa bla bla, and a Golden Unicorn will fly in through the window and give you £50 and a blowjob. Remain lost. No one is talking about an R2, or anything other than a BREXIT. The % of people supporting any kind of re-vote is collapsing. You the Guardian and the Ivory Tower at the BBC can think what you like, it's not going to happen. turbobloke said:
As posted previously, the lies from both sides appear to have done very little to influence the outcome. After the great heat and little light of the campaign, the 4% Leave margin is very close to what it was before the campaigning started.
Here it is, from that very same LSE link.
Here it is, from that very same LSE link.
(just put the picture inline rather than people have to click the link).
turbobloke said:
SilverSixer said:
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears.
Mr_B said:
This fighting the referendum result has more than a whiff of the Japanese guy still in the jungle 30 years after the end of the war and who only surrendered when his old commanding officer went in to tell him it was over. Maybe we need a PH broadcast from Nick Clegg to lay down those EU flags and let it go.
Calling Clegg! SilverSixer said:
Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement.
As posted previously, the lies from both sides appear to have done very little to influence the outcome. After the great heat and little light of the campaign, the 4% Leave margin is very close to what it was before the campaigning started.Here it is, from that very same LSE link.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/files/201...
Or are we in one-party-state territory now?
Edited by SilverSixer on Thursday 28th July 16:08
SilverSixer said:
I'm not proposing anyone "fights" the referendum result, other than by the means of legitimate political party policies, such as the LibDems/Labour/SNP standing on a platform of remaining in/returning to the EU
Well Labour from a lefty position should be anti-EU although they went pro-EU later (I don't have a clue what they are right now apart from in melt down), the Lib Dems are very pro-EU and utter hypocrites. IMO the SNP are just looking for any excuse to try for Independence again rather than actually want the EU and frankly the whole "We want to split from the union because we don't have control so we can join a larger union that'll give us less control" seems ridiculous to me.
Anyway, the Lib Dems are the only ones that are *really* pro-EU.
///ajd said:
andymadmak said:
And yet, without asking anybody, you remain contingent seem convinced that Brexit voters did so because of 350m for the NHS etc etc.
hypocrisy much?
Why if it was only an embarrassing lie was it the key brexit message?hypocrisy much?
All over the Battle bus, plastered infront of Gove, Boris et al. Clear message the cash would goto NHS.
They were even putting leaflets in hospitals with NHS logos making it look like the NHS agreed!
Had no impact on any brexit voter you reckon?
They spent alot of money on a message everyone would ignore - according to you - didn't they!!
SilverSixer said:
I'm not proposing anyone "fights" the referendum result, other than by the means of legitimate political party policies, such as the LibDems/Labour/SNP standing on a platform of remaining in/returning to the EU, but if you read my posts carefully you'll see what I'm saying is that I think the political situation will unfold in such a way that sees us remain in the EU, because the things people wanted to get out of the EU for will not be on offer after the negotiations, and that there will inevitably an election after that negotiation. I'm sure you're not proposing that the EU Referendum be the last vote the British people ever participate in, are you? Because, long shot though it may sound now, it's not outside the bounds of plausibility to envisage a non-Tory progressive government (possibly a coalition) being returned in 2020 which will have campaigned on the platform of continued EU membership. It's my feeling that the negotiation of our exit will result in a bad enough deal for the UK to make the GE result I'm speculating about happen. Long shots are starting to get a habit of happening - Leicester City, Trump........and none of what I say sounds like golden blow job giving, £50 note distributing unicorns, through my double glazing or anyone else's.
Or are we in one-party-state territory now?
Its quite a viable scenario other than I can't see Labour being electable by 2020 at the rate they are going.Or are we in one-party-state territory now?
Edited by SilverSixer on Thursday 28th July 16:08
I suspect the Tories will self identify how toxic the brexit outcome is going to be and find a way to reverse out whilst respecting democratic will etc.
One such ironic scenario is that they will blame the EU for not allowing the UK the favourable terms required by the vote leave team and as such they are frustarting our efficient exit - bloody foreigners!! Etc.
PS changing the subject now on the millions spent on the £350m claim that supposedly didn't affect a single brexit voter. I'm sure they are still many who voted brexit thinking we're gong to save lots of money.....and still believe it. They are going to love seeing how much our SM access is going to cost! They'll think they were lied to.....
And the suggestion there were lies about the remain outcome is risible. What lies were told by remain about what would happen if we stayed in the EU? We had Camerons little concession from the EU on migrants and benefits. That was about it. What else was lied about for what would happen with a remain vote? The brexit lies and false promises are several orders of magnitude worse than the pretty much non-existent lies from remain about continuing life in the EU.
///ajd said:
Its quite a viable scenario other than I can't see Labour being electable by 2020 at the rate they are going.
I suspect the Tories will self identify how toxic the brexit outcome is going to be and find a way to reverse out whilst respecting democratic will etc.
One such ironic scenario is that they will blame the EU for not allowing the UK the favourable terms required by the vote leave team and as such they are frustarting our efficient exit - bloody foreigners!! Etc.
PS changing the subject now on the millions spent on the £350m claim that supposedly didn't affect a single brexit voter. I'm sure they are still many who voted brexit thinking we're gong to save lots of money.....and still believe it. They are going to love seeing how much our SM access is going to cost! They'll think they were lied to.....
And the suggestion there were lies about the remain outcome is risible. What lies were told by remain about what would happen if we stayed in the EU? We had Camerons little concession from the EU on migrants and benefits. That was about it. What else was lied about for what would happen with a remain vote? The brexit lies and false promises are several orders of magnitude worse than the pretty much non-existent lies from remain about continuing life in the EU.
I suspect the Tories will self identify how toxic the brexit outcome is going to be and find a way to reverse out whilst respecting democratic will etc.
One such ironic scenario is that they will blame the EU for not allowing the UK the favourable terms required by the vote leave team and as such they are frustarting our efficient exit - bloody foreigners!! Etc.
PS changing the subject now on the millions spent on the £350m claim that supposedly didn't affect a single brexit voter. I'm sure they are still many who voted brexit thinking we're gong to save lots of money.....and still believe it. They are going to love seeing how much our SM access is going to cost! They'll think they were lied to.....
And the suggestion there were lies about the remain outcome is risible. What lies were told by remain about what would happen if we stayed in the EU? We had Camerons little concession from the EU on migrants and benefits. That was about it. What else was lied about for what would happen with a remain vote? The brexit lies and false promises are several orders of magnitude worse than the pretty much non-existent lies from remain about continuing life in the EU.
no lies here, the project fear lies were all just in the imagination
///ajd said:
Sway said:
Indeed. Along with the fact that Norway does have single market access for financial services, yet applies import taxes on French cheese... Note that I mentioned a free trade deal, not SM access! These are fundamentally different, as is the difference between being a member of EEA and EFTA - chalk and cheese despite most EFTA members also being EEA members.
All these 'facts' show is that there is no basis for absolute assertions for any non EU member's relationship with the EU. Each has its own deal, nuanced and differentiated by different factors.
Which rather supports the view that prior to negotiations commencing, everything is truly on the table - the perfect solution in the eyes of many (full SM access, no FOM, no membership payments, freedom to deal and influence on a global level) through to the worst case.
You really think the cake and east it option is on the table? - SM, no FOM, no payments, ability to do own deals?All these 'facts' show is that there is no basis for absolute assertions for any non EU member's relationship with the EU. Each has its own deal, nuanced and differentiated by different factors.
Which rather supports the view that prior to negotiations commencing, everything is truly on the table - the perfect solution in the eyes of many (full SM access, no FOM, no membership payments, freedom to deal and influence on a global level) through to the worst case.
Which of the other nations would a) let that happen and b) not immediately demand it themselves?
There will be compromise without question. I think it 99% likely May and Hammond will insist on SM at any cost. There is enough info out there to join the dots on what will get compromised as a result.
Every assertion has an example to contradict it:
Norway applies import duties on EU goods, whilst maintaining full SM access.
Liechtenstein has full SM access, without applying FOML.
Several nations have FTA, without subs or FOML.
Swiss are deemed to apply FOML, while actually applying restrictions deemed in violation of the principle if any EEA/EU member applied them.
Turkey has access to the SM for goods, without subs or FOML.
That's the playing field for our negotiation team. Will we get everything? No. But there are precidents that mean everything can justifiably debated.
Of course, the very last thing you should do prior or during negotiations is state what you must have - unlike the Scottish harridan. That just makes life very easy for the oppo.
Don't forget -the end proposal will not take unanimity across the remaining EU nations, QMV will apply and no one will have a unilateral veto. It's looking very possible that France and the Netherlands will have governments that will be more on our side than the EU project's. Germany will be entirely pragmatic, as will Scandinavia.
Has anyone accused Remain of telling lies about what would happen if we had voted to Remain? The only lies were Cameron's about his negotiation. If so, I must have missed it, because I think they didn't tell any lies about anything else. In reality they didn't say anything about what would happen in the event of a Remain vote, they just let the gullible assume that status quo would be the order of the day, or that nothing bad could happen, at all.
The above being despite there beingany views in the Remain campaign about desired outcome, from full on union, through closer union but at a slow pace, or it's OK as it is now, or reform from within, through to well it's all a bit of a mess frankly but the alternatives are just too scary, and finally the selfish only looking at a microscopic personal angle usually based on the status quo stance.
So imo Remain didn't tell any lies about staying in, except perhaps by omission, maybe, stretching a point. The lies they told about other stuff though were staggering, even to the point that the Prime Minister of the day was openly scoffed and ridiculed on live prime time television.
Sorry if that view doesn't accord with certain strawman viewpoints.
The above being despite there beingany views in the Remain campaign about desired outcome, from full on union, through closer union but at a slow pace, or it's OK as it is now, or reform from within, through to well it's all a bit of a mess frankly but the alternatives are just too scary, and finally the selfish only looking at a microscopic personal angle usually based on the status quo stance.
So imo Remain didn't tell any lies about staying in, except perhaps by omission, maybe, stretching a point. The lies they told about other stuff though were staggering, even to the point that the Prime Minister of the day was openly scoffed and ridiculed on live prime time television.
Sorry if that view doesn't accord with certain strawman viewpoints.
Edited by FiF on Thursday 28th July 19:16
///ajd said:
And the suggestion there were lies about the remain outcome is risible. What lies were told by remain about what would happen if we stayed in the EU? We had Camerons little concession from the EU on migrants and benefits. That was about it. What else was lied about for what would happen with a remain vote? The brexit lies and false promises are several orders of magnitude worse than the pretty much non-existent lies from remain about continuing life in the EU.
Remain didn't make a single claim about what would happen if we remained in, it was Project Fear, about what would happen if we left. If you want "Remain" lies you might want to read this:
Measurement without Theory: On the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU Referendum debate
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5...
SilverSixer said:
Hmm. Maybe I have got it wrong. I bow to the boffins at LSE. It had been my impression that Remain had consistently led right up to the last.
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Here here. By quitting, Cameron bought enough time for the Brexit liars to be exposed to those daft enough to believe them at the time. The government will govern & avoid national suicide thankfully.Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Jimboka said:
SilverSixer said:
Hmm. Maybe I have got it wrong. I bow to the boffins at LSE. It had been my impression that Remain had consistently led right up to the last.
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Here here. By quitting, Cameron bought enough time for the Brexit liars to be exposed to those daft enough to believe them at the time. The government will govern & avoid national suicide thankfully.Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Pan Pan Pan said:
Jimboka said:
SilverSixer said:
Hmm. Maybe I have got it wrong. I bow to the boffins at LSE. It had been my impression that Remain had consistently led right up to the last.
Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
Here here. By quitting, Cameron bought enough time for the Brexit liars to be exposed to those daft enough to believe them at the time. The government will govern & avoid national suicide thankfully.Either way, I smell a U-turn in the middle distance when the Referendum is far enough in the past - and there will be tears. Many Leave voters will have done so on the basis of things promised or even imagined which will never materialise, such as and end to freedom of movement. No, I can't provide evidence for that and no, I can't provide you with 10 Leave voters to support that statement because I don't know 10 Leave voters (happily for me my circle of friends and family are 99% remainers). But it is abundantly clear from TV voxpops and the like that people did indeed vote Leave to stop immigration rather than to enhance UK democracy or whatever other intangible benefit you may think people were voting for. And I reckon that when the next vote comes, be it GE2020 or Referendum 2, we will still be in the EU and it will be very clear that an exit from the EU will be on the basis of a negotiation which will not deliver both single market access and an end to free movement, and we will then vote to remain in the EU accordingly.
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