Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[andymadmak]

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there,

Nope. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk when asked about Brexit said:

Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be, As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

[turbobloke]

andymadmak said:

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there,

Nope. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk when asked about Brexit said:

Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be, As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

Exactly.

[SilverSixer]

andymadmak said:

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there,

Nope. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk when asked about Brexit said:

Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be, As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

Well for one thing he wasn't part of the official Remain campaign, so it's like when your side distanced themselves from Nigel Farage's racist poster because he wasn't part of the official Leave campaign, and secondly time will tell. Tusk's statement is a bit extreme, but as I said above the consequences of such movements and lurches to the political right can be pretty damaging.

[///ajd]

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there, but we await with great nervousness the forthcoming elections in countries such as France and the Netherlands. Austria narrowly avoided a Fascist government shortly before the EU Referendum here. Extreme right-wing governments are somewhat likelier to rise across the continent, the Leave vote here is symptomatic of this but will also give confidence to other such forces in Europe and could turn out to be a contributing factor in a change to 'western political civilisation' which would not be a good one. Less related (but they are watching us), Trump is quite likely to win America also, a similar situation to the Leave vote here where those who are 'angry' about 'something' have been corralled in to a single movement against a perceived common enemy, i.e. a 'controlling establishment' or some such, based on 'you're angry with these guys, let's throw them out', but without a cohesive, planned, costed way of doing it - as we are seeing with us now having to negotiate our 'brexit' from scratch, with no guarantees it can work in our favour. Rabble rousers like UKIP and Leave are gaining popularity across the west, and if they take hold in large enough numbers then yes, we're pretty much done for and will regress in almost every aspect of life and civilisation.

-the sky falling in - not worth commenting on.

-a year-long recession - on its way
-three million unemployed - on its way
-more expensive mortgages - unlikely in the short term, granted. Phew, dodged that bullet for now.

-a revenge budget - revenge is your word, let's see what the next budget throws up.

I recall remain only said 3 million worked in jobs related to our EU exports, and as a result any negative impact on our EU export (e.g. by messing with SM access) would put these jobs at risk (not necessarily all of them).

If we do mess up SM access, an impact on these jobs seems likely - I can't see new Guatamalan trade deals making up a any kind of big dent in our £300m exports.

If they is any kind of downturn or recession, impacting our tax receipts, it is hard to see how that will not impact the next budget. It will be a brexit budget of some form.

[turbobloke]

SilverSixer said:

andymadmak said:

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there,

Nope. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk when asked about Brexit said:

Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be, As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

Well for one thing he wasn't part of the official Remain campaign...

If I may reply to that point - we don't know for sure that George didn't ask for it. It turns out he asked for a fib or two from the wider pro-EU side (e.g. Schauble) and as it's a campaign statement that wasn't repudiated it needs to be included.

[Fastdruid]

///ajd said:

I recall remain only said 3 million worked in jobs related to our EU exports, and as a result any negative impact on our EU export (e.g. by messing with SM access) would put these jobs at risk (not necessarily all of them).

If we do mess up SM access, an impact on these jobs seems likely - I can't see new Guatamalan trade deals making up a any kind of big dent in our £300m exports.

If they is any kind of downturn or recession, impacting our tax receipts, it is hard to see how that will not impact the next budget. It will be a brexit budget of some form.

Ah the 3 million jobs at risk, another lie.
http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publicat...

IEA said:

We can say with certainty that 3-4 million jobs are not at risk if the UK
leaves the EU. There may well be net job creation or a range of other
possible outcomes which should be debated rationally.

[SilverSixer]

turbobloke said:

SilverSixer said:

andymadmak said:

SilverSixer said:

-the collapse of western political civilisation - hyperbolic exaggeration on your part there,

Nope. Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk when asked about Brexit said:

Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be, As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety.

Well for one thing he wasn't part of the official Remain campaign...

If I may reply to that point - we don't know for sure that George didn't ask for it. It turns out he asked for a fib or two from the wider pro-EU side (e.g. Schauble) and as it's a campaign statement that wasn't repudiated it needs to be included.

The claim, wild and extreme as it is, could not reasonably be expected to have materialised within a month from the EU Referendum, could it? A month is hardly enough time to repudiate the statement entirely, is it?

[Tuna]

///ajd said:

I don't think for a minute that brexit is done and dusted - the outcome of negotiations will be key. If we get a land of milk and honey I'll happily eat my hat and say lets get on with it. If (as I believe) it turns into a woeful fudge keeping neither side happy, and the prospect of the UK being worse off on nearly all aspects - then things could get interesting. In this scenario I suspect n 65% confirmation of leave is unlikely, and furthermore the electoral suicide will not be in backtracking on brexit, but it trying to inflict it on the country despite the key failure to deliver in the main brexit arguments (£350m/alot of free cash, tighter control of immigration than in the EU already, wonderful new trade deals and no harm to our EU SM access cos BMW etc.)

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

A lot of the people I've talked to knew full well that the process of Brexit would be complicated, messy and would have short to medium term impact on our economy. It wasn't something to be taken lightly and it was an argument about shades of grey, not some black and white, good v's evil decision. However, the long term goals of the EU and our long term goals as a nation were sufficiently different that many of them voted for exit.

So, short term pain, and in the long term, just as much uncertainty as we ever had - I doubt any of the informed voters went into the vote believing anything else, regardless of which way they voted. Then for every uninformed voter who thought they were voting to throw the immigrants out, you can point to an uninformed voter who thought that the EU pays for the NHS.

[///ajd]

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

A lot of the people I've talked to knew full well that the process of Brexit would be complicated, messy and would have short to medium term impact on our economy. It wasn't something to be taken lightly and it was an argument about shades of grey, not some black and white, good v's evil decision. However, the long term goals of the EU and our long term goals as a nation were sufficiently different that many of them voted for exit.

So, short term pain, and in the long term, just as much uncertainty as we ever had - I doubt any of the informed voters went into the vote believing anything else, regardless of which way they voted. Then for every uninformed voter who thought they were voting to throw the immigrants out, you can point to an uninformed voter who thought that the EU pays for the NHS.

Its not my criteria for success - its the list of promises made by brexit to get votes which now are admitted to be undeliverable. Or lies in other words. It seems you have no problem lying to get the democratic result you want.

Brexit will be a failure by its own promises as you admit - it was doomed by the lies of the brexit side before the vote was cast. Do you remember the faces on Gove & Boris on Friday morning?

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

Someone had better tell the government this, we wouldn't want them wasting their time.

[andymadmak]

///ajd said:

Its not my criteria for success - its the list of promises made by brexit to get votes which now are admitted to be undeliverable. Or lies in other words. It seems you have no problem lying to get the democratic result you want.

So you're still of the view that Remain didn't lie? You're firmly in a minority with that one.

And if Remain had won, would we now be looking at the list of promises made or, rather more accurately at the list of threats made by Remain? If Remain was such a compelling argument to make, why did it have to resort to lies, distortions and threats to try to win?

[dan98]

gizlaroc said:

I am dumbfounded at how anyone could have voted remain unless they had serious concerns over their personal position or to be quite blunt are just a bit ignorant.

Are you literally dumbfounded at the idea that a Brit might like to be able rock up in ANY eu destination of their choice and start to work and live there?
While at the same time utilising all their existing documents (driver's license, medical card, passport) to gain pretty much everything that the locals get?

Perhaps you could explain how somebody with that mindset be considered 'ignorant' and have 'serious concerns over their personal position'?

(Did you *ever* consider the fact that subjectively some countries in the EU might be far far far more attractive places to live than the UK?)

[andymadmak]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

Someone had better tell the government this, we wouldn't want them wasting their time.

Wow, fantastic. Someone with an inside track on what the Governments negotiating position is. Can you give us more details?

[anonymous-user]

andymadmak said:

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

Someone had better tell the government this, we wouldn't want them wasting their time.

Wow, fantastic. Someone with an inside track on what the Governments negotiating position is. Can you give us more details?

Perhaps you could enlighten me of what their objective is ?

[andymadmak]

dan98 said:

gizlaroc said:

I am dumbfounded at how anyone could have voted remain unless they had serious concerns over their personal position or to be quite blunt are just a bit ignorant.

Are you literally dumbfounded at the idea that a Brit might like to be able rock up in ANY eu destination of their choice and start to work and live there?
While at the same time utilising all their existing documents (driver's license, medical card, passport) to gain pretty much everything that the locals get?

Perhaps you could explain how somebody with that mindset be considered 'ignorant' and have 'serious concerns over their personal position'?

(Did you *ever* consider the fact that subjectively some countries in the EU might be far far far more attractive places to live than the UK?)

If a Brit has the right qualifications to live and work somewhere else in Europe I am sure they will still be welcomed. Otherwise, are you not simply making gizlaroc's point for him by complaining about loss of that right for the comparatively few unqualified individuals who would exercise it ? Is it not proof that only those who were concerned about there own personal position would have voted Remain?

[andymadmak]

Ghibli said:

Perhaps you could enlighten me of what their objective is ?

I dunno, I thought you were the expert? If I had to guess I'd say they would be looking to deliver the Referendum decision in the most sensible and pragmatic way. But hey, I could be wrong - hence why I asked you

[///ajd]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

Someone had better tell the government this, we wouldn't want them wasting their time.

Indeed, tell them to wind back on some of the inconsistent goals, all the brexiters knew they were just gobste to attract the masses!

Whats the priority by the way - our economy or keeping people out? Choose carefully, can't have both as all brexiters know!!

[Tuna]

///ajd said:

Brexit will be a failure by its own promises as you admit - it was doomed by the lies of the brexit side before the vote was cast. Do you remember the faces on Gove & Boris on Friday morning?

You're funny. I write a post saying that claiming every 'promise' made by either side is somehow binding would be a ridiculous position to take.. and you immediately take exactly that position.

I remember the look on Osbourne's face as he had to admit that an 'emergency budget' wouldn't have to happen. I remember the look on quite a few smug faces when they realised that calling people stupid was not a way to win an argument. I remember the claims that the NHS, schools, industry, business and all that we hold dear were utterly dependent on the EU. I remember the claims that voting out would cause riots and the rise of UKIP. How's your memory? Limited only to faces?

[anonymous-user]

andymadmak said:

Ghibli said:

Perhaps you could enlighten me of what their objective is ?

I dunno, I thought you were the expert? If I had to guess I'd say they would be looking to deliver the Referendum decision in the most sensible and pragmatic way. But hey, I could be wrong - hence why I asked you

What makes you think I had anymore say than you when I put X in the box ?

[andymadmak]

Ghibli said:

What makes you think I had anymore say than you when I put X in the box ?

well I suppose when you respond like this.......

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ah, so now your criteria for success is 'the land of milk and honey', '350m', 'tighter control of immigration' and anything else you can find from the many discussions on Brexit. You know full well that there are no circumstances under which all of those things will be delivered, and I doubt you will find a single pro-Brexit voter who believed all of those things would be delivered. But by taking that stance you can comfortably guarantee that you'll be able to state that Brexit has been a failure.

Someone had better tell the government this, we wouldn't want them wasting their time.

....it sort of implied that you knew what the Government negotiating positions were. After all, only someone who knew them could suggest that they might be wasting their time unless informed of these new facts..... Or maybe you were just trying to be clever. Never mind, it does not matter.