Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

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RizzoTheRat

25,162 posts

192 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Or what would happen if there was another referendum and the result was 52% in favour of remain? It's still just as close, will those calling for another referendum now still call for one if it goes their way but a slim margin?

For the record I think leaving will be a massive mistake, but I'm not convinced multiple referendums are the way forward, unless it's actually a referendum were we get to vote on some form of actual plan.

Graemsay

612 posts

212 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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A second referendum wouldn't be a bad idea.

Kenneth Rogoff argues that the bar was set too low for such a major constitutional change. He suggests two referenda separated by a year, and also a Parliamentary vote, ideally with a 60% threshold.

Pan Pan Pan

9,902 posts

111 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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RizzoTheRat said:
Or what would happen if there was another referendum and the result was 52% in favour of remain? It's still just as close, will those calling for another referendum now still call for one if it goes their way but a slim margin?

For the record I think leaving will be a massive mistake, but I'm not convinced multiple referendums are the way forward, unless it's actually a referendum were we get to vote on some form of actual plan.
The EU is not Europe, it is a corrupt crumbling Ponzi scheme, that benefits `some' countries at the expense of others.
The sh*t has not got any where near hitting the fan yet, when the basket case economies, which the EU should not have admitted in the first place, all come looking for multi billion pound hand outs from the EU.
Germany has been the financial power house of the EU, with the UK its second greatest contributor of funds INTO EU coffers now leaving, leaving Germany to shoulder all the bills.
Good though it is, do you believe that Germany alone can carry all the basket case economies indefinitely?

Blue62

8,853 posts

152 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.

Who do you think will have the cahona's to press the button on Article 50 in the current situation? It would be political suicide.

Tycho

11,589 posts

273 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Graemsay said:
A second referendum wouldn't be a bad idea.

Kenneth Rogoff argues that the bar was set too low for such a major constitutional change. He suggests two referenda separated by a year, and also a Parliamentary vote, ideally with a 60% threshold.
Personally I don't think the bar was too low. Would a 52%-48% result be ok if it was a 100% turnout? What happened was a 100% of people who actually could be bothered to vote voted. It wasn't as if you didn't know it was happening. Apathy isn't an excuse for a rerun.

This could have all been headed off if we had a referendum when the EU changed from a trade bloc to a political body with a hidden aim of European unification.

I totally agree with this:

MDMetal said:
The solution is simple, the EU needs to be clear that it's end goal is a single European country. Let it's members vote on if they agree, the ones that agree start the integration now and clearly separate the EU (country) from the EU periphery like the single market etc etc. There are several countries "stuck" in the EU at different membership levels, they don't want further integration and they're clogging up the process for those that do. The single market and other co-operative efforts shouldn't be the bait to be assimilated into a single EU country, let the members decide and split along those lines. Separate the institutions so the members who don't want to integrate aren't held to ransom and the exterior and interior can be reformed along the lines needed by those members.

That would be a clear mandated democractic action and it would be clear how countries can choose to integrate further later if they wish. It also allows the core EU to integrate faster and be more stable.

Esseesse

8,969 posts

208 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Graemsay said:
A second referendum wouldn't be a bad idea.

Kenneth Rogoff argues that the bar was set too low for such a major constitutional change. He suggests two referenda separated by a year, and also a Parliamentary vote, ideally with a 60% threshold.
We entered with no referendum at all, an equally major constitutional change.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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Blue62 said:
I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.

Who do you think will have the cahona's to press the button on Article 50 in the current situation? It would be political suicide.
I would have some sympathy with this approach.

Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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sidicks said:
Blue62 said:
I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.

Who do you think will have the cahona's to press the button on Article 50 in the current situation? It would be political suicide.
I would have some sympathy with this approach.
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.

RizzoTheRat

25,162 posts

192 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Blue62 said:
I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.
But some in the EU are saying they won't negotiate before Article 50 is declared, and once article 50 is declared there's no turning back. No idea how much power those people have though, Merkle and Hollande are have a conference in the near future which might give some direction from the EU side.

Tycho

11,589 posts

273 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Blue62 said:
I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.

Who do you think will have the cahona's to press the button on Article 50 in the current situation? It would be political suicide.
I think another referndum on the terms would cause a lot of uncertainty and waste a lot of time. Cameron was just another coward who thinks that people have forgotten his speeches on how England isn't populated by quitters and this is the first thing he did. He should have pulled the trigger immediately IMO.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.
Someone in Germany that has the power to make that decision, or just some EU-loving German politician?!

Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Jockman said:
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.
Someone in Germany that has the power to make that decision, or just some EU loving German politician?!
Somebody called Angela Merkel wink

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36637232

confused_buyer

6,615 posts

181 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
RizzoTheRat said:
But some in the EU are saying they won't negotiate before Article 50 is declared, and once article 50 is declared there's no turning back. No idea how much power those people have though, Merkle and Hollande are have a conference in the near future which might give some direction from the EU side.
I can kind of see their point. I'm sure they'd love to have 2 years hard fought negotiations, come to a deal, then the UK turn around and say "gotcha! it was all a joke! We're staying just as we were" as some people here seem to be suggesting by way of another referendum once the deal was done.

Blue62

8,853 posts

152 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.
That is a tactic at this stage, not that it in any way proves the theory.

But seriously folks, who is going to press the button? If the leadership contest is a straight fight (as seems likely) between May and Johnson, would the winner really take the gamble?

Graemsay

612 posts

212 months

Monday 27th June 2016
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sidicks said:
I would have some sympathy with this approach.
Likewise.

The Leave camp hasn't articulated its position yet. A second referendum giving options to Remain, join the EFTA, or withdrawing completely would be a sensible approach.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

198 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
sidicks said:
Blue62 said:
I could see a situation emerging whereby there is a second referendum based on whatever terms are now negotiated for our exit, that would at least enable the UK populace to make a more informed decision on an issue that will have implications for our country (good or bad), for years to come.

Who do you think will have the cahona's to press the button on Article 50 in the current situation? It would be political suicide.
I would have some sympathy with this approach.
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.
And given CMD isn't going to press it cause he's resigned, and Boris hasn't pressed it and is unlikely to without becoming Tory Leader first, it might not be. Because guess what, someone other than Boris might become leader.

The other material fact that has now emerged, and could be cited as a reason for R2, is that it is now clear that a leave vote is also very likely a break the UK up vote. So the two questions could be combined into one.

I have a strong sense the MPs in Westminster and the Civil Service will be working manically behind the scenes to try and plot a way to defy the R1 result without ensuig riots across the Midlands, North England and Welsh Valleys.

sidicks

25,218 posts

221 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
Fair enough, her previous comments seemed much more constructive!

Jockman

17,917 posts

160 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Jockman said:
Fair enough, her previous comments seemed much more constructive!
I think her whole approach is a bit of carrot and stick tbh.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

198 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Jockman said:
sidicks said:
Jockman said:
Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.
Someone in Germany that has the power to make that decision, or just some EU loving German politician?!
Somebody called Angela Merkel wink

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36637232
  • puts tinfoil hat on
Who is doing this precisely because it's what CMD has asked her to do in order to hold the fort whilst Boris has been snookered by CMD resigning so that the mainly 'remain' politicians & civil servants of Westminster can figure out some kind of plan B to get around that fact that the British Public have done what no one expected them to do.

SpeckledJim

31,608 posts

253 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
confused_buyer said:
RizzoTheRat said:
But some in the EU are saying they won't negotiate before Article 50 is declared, and once article 50 is declared there's no turning back. No idea how much power those people have though, Merkle and Hollande are have a conference in the near future which might give some direction from the EU side.
I can kind of see their point. I'm sure they'd love to have 2 years hard fought negotiations, come to a deal, then the UK turn around and say "gotcha! it was all a joke! We're staying just as we were" as some people here seem to be suggesting by way of another referendum once the deal was done.
I'm a leaver, but I agree we need to commit to leaving before negotiating.

It would not be cricket to have a 'will-they-won't-they' question hanging over the process.

The people said 'out', now it is time for the politicians to do likewise. Then everyone knows where they stand, and the EU reps can gauge accurately the cost to their countries and careers if they don't do a good job of keeping the UK spend flowing merrily in.



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