Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[andymadmak]

Hugo a Gogo said:

if you collected all possible 'ways forward' that people wanted, arguably 'staying in the EU as is' would have been the majority
all the remainers wanted that,

Yes, but I am afraid that that was not on the table either

[don4l]

Hugo a Gogo said:

if you collected all possible 'ways forward' that people wanted, arguably 'staying in the EU as is' would have been the majority
all the remainers wanted that, many of the leavers wanted one of several quite different options

Are you saying that a majority wanted to stay in the EU?

Were they too thick to put the cross in the correct box?

[FiF]

Hugo a Gogo said:

all the remainers wanted that

I'm sorry but that's plainly wrong. Even Cameron didn't want that, evidenced by his renegotiation and frequent use of the term reformed EU.

Remainers varied on every point of the spectrum from wanting full on political and fiscal union, through status quo exactly as is, as if that was on offer, which btw it wasn't, through reform from within, as if that also was on offer, which also wasn't, as evidenced by words of JCJ, through the stance of it's not that good, needs serious reform but better in than out, all the way through to it's in a real state but better than the fear and gloom portrayed as immediate result of an exit vote.

To say all Remainers wanted to stay as is is frankly flat out wrong and to believe it is delusional. Sorry but there it is

[Hugo a Gogo]

don4l said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

if you collected all possible 'ways forward' that people wanted, arguably 'staying in the EU as is' would have been the majority
all the remainers wanted that, many of the leavers wanted one of several quite different options

Are you saying that a majority wanted to stay in the EU?

Were they too thick to put the cross in the correct box?

various ways forward include, but would not be restricted to
stay in EU
vs
leave altogether
vs
stay in single market, keep FoM, but leave EU proper
vs
stay in single market, no FoM
vs
some other model

[WinstonWolf]

FiF said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

all the remainers wanted that

I'm sorry but that's plainly wrong. Even Cameron didn't want that, evidenced by his renegotiation and frequent use of the term reformed EU.

Remainers varied on every point of the spectrum from wanting full on political and fiscal union, through status quo exactly as is, as if that was on offer, which btw it wasn't, through reform from within, as if that also was on offer, which also wasn't, as evidenced by words of JCJ, through the stance of it's not that good, needs serious reform but better in than out, all the way through to it's in a real state but better than the fear and gloom portrayed as immediate result of an exit vote.

To say all Remainers wanted to stay as is is frankly flat out wrong and to believe it is delusional. Sorry but there it is

All x voted because y is completely wrong, that's why //ajd gets so much stick. Everyone voted for the reasons that were personally important to them, those reasons were many and varied...

[Hugo a Gogo]

FiF said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

all the remainers wanted that

I'm sorry but that's plainly wrong. Even Cameron didn't want that, evidenced by his renegotiation and frequent use of the term reformed EU.

Remainers varied on every point of the spectrum from wanting full on political and fiscal union, through status quo exactly as is, as if that was on offer, which btw it wasn't, through reform from within, as if that also was on offer, which also wasn't, as evidenced by words of JCJ, through the stance of it's not that good, needs serious reform but better in than out, all the way through to it's in a real state but better than the fear and gloom portrayed as immediate result of an exit vote.

To say all Remainers wanted to stay as is is frankly flat out wrong and to believe it is delusional. Sorry but there it is

all remainers wanted to stay in the EU, no? that's kind of the definition

[andymadmak]

Hugo a Gogo said:

all remainers wanted to stay in the EU, no? that's kind of the definition

How many people who voted Remain only did so because they believed the lies and intimidation at the heart of the Remain campaign? If Remain had told the truth the chances are that the majority in favour of Brexit would have been far larger....

(am I doing this right? )

[Jockman]

Hugo a Gogo said:

all remainers wanted to stay in the EU, no? that's kind of the definition

FiF didn't answer this question, he answered your original question which included the words 'as is'.

[turbobloke]

andymadmak said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

all remainers wanted to stay in the EU, no? that's kind of the definition

How many people who voted Remain only did so because they believed the lies and intimidation at the heart of the Remain campaign? If Remain had told the truth the chances are that the majority in favour of Brexit would have been far larger....

(am I doing this right? )

In the same vein...then there was Jo Cox a tragedy which according to the poll of polls charts we see, brought the two sides of the vote closer together almost immediately. Without that tragic incident the gap looked more like 8 or 10 points on a graphic seen in this or a similar thread.

[Mrr T]

andymadmak said:

What the Brexit voters I have spoken to do recognise is that our Government will negotiate a deal, and that deal will end up being scrutinised to death. Some will be disappointed in it, others will be euphoric about it, most will probably see the final deal as in some way acceptable.

I am sure our Government will want to negotiate a deal.

The question is what will the rEU members do. Will they agree to some form of per Art 50 negotiation?

Or do they insist we invoke Art 50 before any negotiations take place.

If they do then the Government will negotiate at a disadvantage.

What happens then is not down to those who voted leave its about politics.

andymadmak said:

Were I to be a betting man I would say that FMOL may well end up looking something at least a bit like this :

EU citizens already here and with a job can stay indefinitely
EU citizens already here for at least 10 years can stay regardless of job status (i.e., those with roots here, although how this is defined will probably need more thought than just my 10 years example)
EU citizens that own property in the UK can stay
Some form of preferential fast track system for visa applications from within the EU (maybe even a "come first and review retrospectively" type system)
EU citizens coming in the future wanting to work will require either evidence of a job waiting for them or will apply for a work visa in a skill area identified by the Government as desirable (The NHS option) or may be admitted for a defined period under flexible temporary schemes designed to accommodate short term needs within the economy (the oft quoted example being seasonal fruit pickers, but there are others)
Student and other educational type visas can also be administered relatively easily

Those Brexiters for whom uncontrolled immigration was an issue to some degree will probably be happy with some sort of scheme based on the above.

I would take a big bet against that not happening.

Not only is the FOML a fundamental core of the EU the idea of negotiating a separate deal with the rEU on exit is a pipe dream. Not because its immpossible but because it will take years. The Swiss treaties, which include FOML but not financial services passporting took 7 years to negotiate.

[FiF]

Jockman said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

all remainers wanted to stay in the EU, no? that's kind of the definition

FiF didn't answer this question, he answered your original question which included the words 'as is'.

Exactly thank you, let's be clear and kill the doubtful nature of the denial. This is what was said,

Hugo a Gogo said:

if you collected all possible 'ways forward' that people wanted, arguably 'staying in the EU as is' would have been the majority all the remainers wanted that, many of the leavers wanted one of several quite different options

That's what he said, in short arguing that Leavers had many opinions as to the desired exit strategy, which is true, and it was a major problem for the leave campaign that better coordination and agreement could not be achieved, but he claims that the Remain campaign all wanted one solution, to Remain as is, which plainly wasn't true. What Remain did was hide these divisions within their ranks, and appear to be still trying to do so. Despite that, and the serial incompetence of some of the Leave campaigners, Remain still lost.

[Murph7355]

Mrr T said:

...
Not only is the FOML a fundamental core of the EU the idea of negotiating a separate deal with the rEU on exit is a pipe dream. Not because its immpossible but because it will take years. The Swiss treaties, which include FOML but not financial services passporting took 7 years to negotiate.

Using past negotiations as a barometer is only marginally meaningful and by no means indicative of what may or may not ensue when we start negotiations fully.

Our position vv the EU is very, very different to Switzerland's.

And there are already now a couple of arrangements (Switzerland's being one) that could, if both parties so desired, be used as a start point. Or even end point.

Much of the minutiae may well take years. But my bet would be on agreement on the larger, material factors pretty quickly as regardless of the rhetoric from both sides (both internally in the UK and UK<>EU), not hanging about on the larger items is very much in the interests of both the UK and rEU.

[Jockman]

turbobloke said:

In the same vein...then there was Jo Cox a tragedy which according to the poll of polls charts we see, brought the two sides of the vote closer together almost immediately. Without that tragic incident the gap looked more like 8 or 10 points on a graphic seen in this or a similar thread.

[turbobloke]

Thanks Jockman! That's the badger

[don4l]

Hugo a Gogo said:

don4l said:

Hugo a Gogo said:

if you collected all possible 'ways forward' that people wanted, arguably 'staying in the EU as is' would have been the majority
all the remainers wanted that, many of the leavers wanted one of several quite different options

Are you saying that a majority wanted to stay in the EU?

Were they too thick to put the cross in the correct box?

various ways forward include, but would not be restricted to
stay in EU
vs
leave altogether
vs
stay in single market, keep FoM, but leave EU proper
vs
stay in single market, no FoM
vs
some other model

I voted Leave because I wanted to, er, leave.

TBH, I wouldn't even bother trying to negotiate a "deal" with the EU. I'd get on with negotiating deals with India, Australia, NZ and Canada as a matter of priority.

[Mrr T]

Murph7355 said:

Using past negotiations as a barometer is only marginally meaningful and by no means indicative of what may or may not ensue when we start negotiations fully.

Our position vv the EU is very, very different to Switzerland's.

And there are already now a couple of arrangements (Switzerland's being one) that could, if both parties so desired, be used as a start point. Or even end point.

Much of the minutiae may well take years. But my bet would be on agreement on the larger, material factors pretty quickly as regardless of the rhetoric from both sides (both internally in the UK and UK<>EU), not hanging about on the larger items is very much in the interests of both the UK and rEU.

I quoted the Swiss agreements because they are the closet to a "special" EU deal. I suspect even the heads of agreement will take some time since I assume the UK will reject FOML and the rEU will demand it. The detail of the treaty would then need to be negotiated before we even triggered Art 50. With the rEU now 26 nations all of whom will want to comment on every clause of the treaty I would suspect 7 years is fast. Further, during the period there are elections in all 26 countries, with no guarantee a new government will agree items accepted by it predecesor. We may even potentially have a new government in the UK with no commitment to brexit.

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

I voted Leave because I wanted to, er, leave.

TBH, I wouldn't even bother trying to negotiate a "deal" with the EU. I'd get on with negotiating deals with India, Australia, NZ and Canada as a matter of priority.

EU financial services passporting?

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

I voted Leave because I wanted to, er, leave.

TBH, I wouldn't even bother trying to negotiate a "deal" with the EU. I'd get on with negotiating deals with India, Australia, NZ and Canada as a matter of priority.

EU financial services passporting?

Not my area of expertise.

[///ajd]

andymadmak said:

...
Were I to be a betting man I would say that FMOL may well end up looking something at least a bit like this :

EU citizens already here and with a job can stay indefinitely
EU citizens already here for at least 10 years can stay regardless of job status (i.e., those with roots here, although how this is defined will probably need more thought than just my 10 years example)
EU citizens that own property in the UK can stay
Some form of preferential fast track system for visa applications from within the EU (maybe even a "come first and review retrospectively" type system)
EU citizens coming in the future wanting to work will require either evidence of a job waiting for them or will apply for a work visa in a skill area identified by the Government as desirable (The NHS option) or may be admitted for a defined period under flexible temporary schemes designed to accommodate short term needs within the economy (the oft quoted example being seasonal fruit pickers, but there are others)
Student and other educational type visas can also be administered relatively easily

Those Brexiters for whom uncontrolled immigration was an issue to some degree will probably be happy with some sort of scheme based on the above. I've not met a single Brexiter who did not see the merit in continuing at least some immigration. The golden part is to understand who is being let in and for what reasons, rather than the mass uncontrolled scramble that we had before. (oh dear, is that a "dark idea" appearing )

....

So I expect single market access will be found in some way, albeit with some blurring on FMOL (as set out above) and a continuing (much much smaller) contribution to the EU financial pot (possibly dressed up as subscriptions to continued cooperation in some areas)

I agree with your prediction. The top bit sounds like a plausible ambition. It also sounds quite complicated & expensive to administer - and what difference will it make to the 300,000 EU migrants a year? Given it seems nearly all EU migrants come here to work, will we still let in say 280,000? If we are letting in those with a job that our economy needs - i.e. including fruit pickers etc. - they who are we keeping out? Are they worth all the effort? This could make virtually no practical difference, and indeed perhaps there is an argument not to for GDP reasons.

The second bit also sounds plausible, and quite possibly likely to restrict what is possible on FMOL as you say. Contributions could be quite high - say 60-80% of now - is it based on GDP? - and we end up with SM membership but no say.

Do you think that's a good deal for the UK, and a "step forward" from being in the EU?

Edited by ///ajd on Monday 22 August 20:02

[Derek Smith]

don4l said:

I voted Leave because I wanted to, er, leave.

TBH, I wouldn't even bother trying to negotiate a "deal" with the EU. I'd get on with negotiating deals with India, Australia, NZ and Canada as a matter of priority.

And the total amount of trade with your selection of god's own countries is how much? How does that equate with the trade we will lose if we stick two fingers up to the EU?

The remarkable thing about this thread is that there are dozens of preferred options put forward seemingly with the suggestion that each is what the poster wants. What is clear is what has been repeated in may articles in the press, that many of those who voted to leave the EU will be disappointed, is spot on.

That's the problem. There was no detail in the vote yet the small print is what it is all about. There are some silly suggestions and some which are supported by commentators. However, what we need is an option that is best for the UK. I'm not sure trading with NZ is going to maintain my standard of living. I like lamb but don't want it every day.

There are tory politicians suggesting they know what the vast majority of voters want, that regardless of whether they voted in the referendum or not.

There must be many criteria on which the government, whatever the result of the negotiations, will be criticised about, and no doubt blamed. I'm not sure that any party could come out of the exit with as much support as they went in.