Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result

[Wills2]

Timmy40 said:

• puts tinfoil hat on

Who is doing this precisely because it's what CMD has asked her to do in order to hold the fort whilst Boris has been snookered by CMD resigning so that the mainly 'remain' politicians & civil servants of Westminster can figure out some kind of plan B to get around that fact that the British Public have done what no one expected them to do.

Yep MI5 and Prince Philip are cooking up a plan as we speak, just like in the Scottish referendum.

[ben5575]

Jockman said:

sidicks said:

Jockman said:

Somebody called Angela Merkel

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36637232

Fair enough, her previous comments seemed much more constructive!

I think her whole approach is a bit of carrot and stick tbh.

Agreed. As others have said above, we're never going to (full bhuna) leave, just negotiate a better position and ratify it through either R2 or a GE based on manifesto pledges. Ms Merkel knows this and is calling our bluff on pressing the button. She will wind up Juncker to publically spout the usual nonsense whilst we can happily leave Farage to spout his. All of it is white noise, whilst the UK and Germany have a stare down to see who's economy slides the most and who blinks first.

[Fastdruid]

Tycho said:

This could have all been headed off if we had a referendum when the EU changed from a trade bloc to a political body with a hidden aim of European unification.

Hardly hidden. From 1975 http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/a-lesson-from...

But we must recognise that the European Community has now set itself the objectives of developing a common foreign policy, a form of common nationality expressed through a common passport, a directly elected assembly and an economic and monetary union which, taken together, would in effect make the United Kingdom into one province of a Western European state.

[Jimbeaux]

Don't panic! The economic dip is normal. The investors went with the polls and loaded cash into what would have been the proper places, now they are trying to snatch it back. This is expected and will get better!

London did not become a world center of banking because of the E.U. it did so because of lighter regulation and well-managed U.K. institutions.

[ben5575]

SpeckledJim said:

I'm a leaver, but I agree we need to commit to leaving before negotiating.

It would not be cricket to have a 'will-they-won't-they' question hanging over the process.

The people said 'out', now it is time for the politicians to do likewise. Then everyone knows where they stand, and the EU reps can gauge accurately the cost to their countries and careers if they don't do a good job of keeping the UK spend flowing merrily in.

Sorry, but pushing the button now would be complete madness from a negotiation point of view and will only lead to additional uncertainty whilst people spend two years (hint, they won't, they'll spend 6 weeks at the end) negotiating a deal that at the 11th hour Germany says, oh you know that free movement issue you're struggling with? Well deal with it because you've run out of time.

Much better to get 'fudge leave' sorted in time for a GE in November this year and be done with it. We get a better deal, remainers happy, most leavers grudgingly accept it, we have a handful of irate PH'ers on the fringes but we avoid a global recession. problem is that if we can figure that out on PH, I'm fairly sure Ms Merkel has figured it out as well and the posturing has begun as outlined in my earlier post.

[Mrr T]

Jimbeaux said:

Don't panic! The economic dip is normal. The investors went with the polls and loaded cash into what would have been the proper places, now they are trying to snatch it back. This is expected and will get better!

London did not become a world center of banking because of the E.U. it did so because of lighter regulation and well-managed U.K. institutions.

Jim being an American you may not have heard of EU financail services passporting.

[Jimbeaux]

I have, but do you really think provisions will not be made for the world's 5th largest economy? The E.U. needs Britain more than Britain needs the E.U. Imo.

[Gary C]

p1stonhead said:

Gary C said:

don4l said:

p1stonhead said:

Except most of his items mentioned are EU rules and regulations and not European ones - Free Movement, Cooperation on services, Being able to live anywhere (and vice versa) etc.

All he wants removed are EU directives and rules, of which there are many very beneficial ones;

Equal opportunities
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid...

Working time
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid...

Use of personal data
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid...

Consumer rights
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid...

Do any of these things exist in the USA, Canada, Australia or Japan?

Pretending that we could not have these laws without the EU is just plain silly.

Bloody working time directive restricting my overtime !

You know you can opt out like most people (including myself) do?

it was a bit tounge in cheek.

Our company wont permit it. I know that really means its the company, but they are implementing the WTD as they see it.

[Timmy40]

Mrr T said:

Jimbeaux said:

Don't panic! The economic dip is normal. The investors went with the polls and loaded cash into what would have been the proper places, now they are trying to snatch it back. This is expected and will get better!

London did not become a world center of banking because of the E.U. it did so because of lighter regulation and well-managed U.K. institutions.

Jim being an American you may not have heard of EU financail services passporting.

To be fair passporting is not the be all and end all. It makes compliance cheaper because you only need to go through the regs of one country to trade across all areas, but before the passporting came in you just registered a trading office in each country you wanted to trade in.

Whether that additional cost outweighs the huge talent pool, lower taxes, relaxed regulation etc that London has always enjoyed is very much a moot point.

I can see some staff being relocated to the EU. But probably not huge numbers and given the sheer scale of the UK FS industry I don't think the damage will be great.

[Tycho]

Fastdruid said:

Tycho said:

This could have all been headed off if we had a referendum when the EU changed from a trade bloc to a political body with a hidden aim of European unification.

Hardly hidden. From 1975 http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/a-lesson-from...

But we must recognise that the European Community has now set itself the objectives of developing a common foreign policy, a form of common nationality expressed through a common passport, a directly elected assembly and an economic and monetary union which, taken together, would in effect make the United Kingdom into one province of a Western European state.

Hidden in the sense that it is never mentioned to the electorate in any treaties up front, the central EU leadership is trying to get unification by stealth.

As per this quote by Junker:
“Of course there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?,”

[Tycho]

Graemsay said:

sidicks said:

I would have some sympathy with this approach.

Likewise.

The Leave camp hasn't articulated its position yet. A second referendum giving options to Remain, join the EFTA, or withdrawing completely would be a sensible approach.

That is a referendum designed to give a remain result pure and simple. Try and split the leave vote and the remainers will get the result they and the EU wanted. Would never work.

[mclwanB]

Jimbeaux said:

I have, but do you really think provisions will not be made for the world's 5th largest economy? The E.U. needs Britain more than Britain needs the E.U. Imo.

No longer- dropped to 6th on the back of this within 24hrs. EU needs to not be seen to be about to fragment far more than it needs the UK. A cautionary tale would be what they want out of this the most

[Mrr T]

Timmy40 said:

Mrr T said:

Jimbeaux said:

Don't panic! The economic dip is normal. The investors went with the polls and loaded cash into what would have been the proper places, now they are trying to snatch it back. This is expected and will get better!

London did not become a world center of banking because of the E.U. it did so because of lighter regulation and well-managed U.K. institutions.

Jim being an American you may not have heard of EU financail services passporting.

To be fair passporting is not the be all and end all. It makes compliance cheaper because you only need to go through the regs of one country to trade across all areas, but before the passporting came in you just registered a trading office in each country you wanted to trade in.

Whether that additional cost outweighs the huge talent pool, lower taxes, relaxed regulation etc that London has always enjoyed is very much a moot point.

I can see some staff being relocated to the EU. But probably not huge numbers and given the sheer scale of the UK FS industry I don't think the damage will be great.

I suggest your knowledge of financial services regulations is out of date. You cannot register a company and with a couple of employees its become a regulated entity. Regulators require most sales staff, all key individuals, from senior management to risk and compliance to be based in the country of the regulated entity. Regulator do not like the idea of finding a regulated entity is in breach of regulations and the managers are outside its jursdiction.

My guess is 400/500k jobs moving. Which in my view is a lot.

[SpeckledJim]

ben5575 said:

SpeckledJim said:

I'm a leaver, but I agree we need to commit to leaving before negotiating.

It would not be cricket to have a 'will-they-won't-they' question hanging over the process.

The people said 'out', now it is time for the politicians to do likewise. Then everyone knows where they stand, and the EU reps can gauge accurately the cost to their countries and careers if they don't do a good job of keeping the UK spend flowing merrily in.

Sorry, but pushing the button now would be complete madness from a negotiation point of view and will only lead to additional uncertainty whilst people spend two years (hint, they won't, they'll spend 6 weeks at the end) negotiating a deal that at the 11th hour Germany says, oh you know that free movement issue you're struggling with? Well deal with it because you've run out of time.

Much better to get 'fudge leave' sorted in time for a GE in November this year and be done with it. We get a better deal, remainers happy, most leavers grudgingly accept it, we have a handful of irate PH'ers on the fringes but we avoid a global recession. problem is that if we can figure that out on PH, I'm fairly sure Ms Merkel has figured it out as well and the posturing has begun as outlined in my earlier post.

But 'fudge leave' won't mean anything if it is negotiated in an environment where the UK could just walk away from it. Not to mention the resentment it will generate in the EU, the potential peevishness that might engender, and the cost to both parties of the lengthy uncertainty.

The point (beauty, even) of article 50 is that both parties are committed to something that WILL happen, and all they have to work out is the HOW, with fairly balanced jeopardy for both parties.

I think we should pull the pin on article 50 and lock our team and Merkel's team into Chequers for a fortnight and see what comes out.

If whatever results is agreeable to us and to the Germans, then I expect it can be steam-rollered into effect.

[Jimbeaux]

mclwanB said:

Jimbeaux said:

I have, but do you really think provisions will not be made for the world's 5th largest economy? The E.U. needs Britain more than Britain needs the E.U. Imo.

No longer- dropped to 6th on the back of this within 24hrs. EU needs to not be seen to be about to fragment far more than it needs the UK. A cautionary tale would be what they want out of this the most

Come on, that is a temporary thing and disingenuous. Even if he E.U. nations were to all leave, they would be natural trading partners due to many reasons, proximity being only one. NATO cohesion is actually the most important face to put on now, seeing as Vlad P. is sure to test the edges soon.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Monday 27th June 15:07

[tarnished]

Jockman said:

Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.

Good. Now we just need someone to press it.

[p1stonhead]

tarnished said:

Jockman said:

Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.

Good. Now we just need someone to press it.

But no one will because politicians are selfish and it would be suicide.

[loafer123]

Mrr T said:

I suggest your knowledge of financial services regulations is out of date. You cannot register a company and with a couple of employees its become a regulated entity. Regulators require most sales staff, all key individuals, from senior management to risk and compliance to be based in the country of the regulated entity. Regulator do not like the idea of finding a regulated entity is in breach of regulations and the managers are outside its jursdiction.

My guess is 400/500k jobs moving. Which in my view is a lot.

Given there are only 400k people working in the City of London, I think you are an idiot.

[tarnished]

p1stonhead said:

tarnished said:

Jockman said:

Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.

Good. Now we just need someone to press it.

But no one will because politicians are selfish and it would be suicide.

It might be, if badly handled.

Not pressing it would be suicidal for the whole party.

[p1stonhead]

tarnished said:

p1stonhead said:

tarnished said:

Jockman said:

Germany has confirmed today - no prelim talks.

The button has to be pressed before negotiations.

Good. Now we just need someone to press it.

But no one will because politicians are selfish and it would be suicide.

It might be, if badly handled.

Not pressing it would be suicidal for the whole party.

I think this whole thing looks like suicide for all of the parties