Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result
Discussion
The peers don't have a say in the matter if no new legislation is required.
If new legislation is required, which I don't believe is the case, that's when the Salisbury convention kicks in, that convention allows the Commons to bypass the Lords, as the manifesto held the commitment to a referendum and the results of that would be carried out.
The only aspect that is in question, as far as I can see, is if the PM needs to have a vote in the commons before Art50 is invoked. That's what the case is about in October.
The case is not for introducing any new law that would allow Art50 to be invoked.
If new legislation is required, which I don't believe is the case, that's when the Salisbury convention kicks in, that convention allows the Commons to bypass the Lords, as the manifesto held the commitment to a referendum and the results of that would be carried out.
The only aspect that is in question, as far as I can see, is if the PM needs to have a vote in the commons before Art50 is invoked. That's what the case is about in October.
The case is not for introducing any new law that would allow Art50 to be invoked.
jsf said:
The peers don't have a say in the matter if no new legislation is required.
If new legislation is required, which I don't believe is the case, that's when the Salisbury convention kicks in, that convention allows the Commons to bypass the Lords, as the manifesto held the commitment to a referendum and the results of that would be carried out.
The only aspect that is in question, as far as I can see, is if the PM needs to have a vote in the commons before Art50 is invoked. That's what the case is about in October.
The case is not for introducing any new law that would allow Art50 to be invoked.
Would that be the same Salisbury Convention that's been ignored in the past or another one?If new legislation is required, which I don't believe is the case, that's when the Salisbury convention kicks in, that convention allows the Commons to bypass the Lords, as the manifesto held the commitment to a referendum and the results of that would be carried out.
The only aspect that is in question, as far as I can see, is if the PM needs to have a vote in the commons before Art50 is invoked. That's what the case is about in October.
The case is not for introducing any new law that would allow Art50 to be invoked.
However, the main point is, as always, the parliament is a law unto itself, almost literally. There is a majority of MPs who feel the best for the UK is to stay in the EU. Yet what procedure occurs in down entirely to them.
There are all sorts of ways we could stay in the eu. Indeed, you could probably list them as much as anyone who wants to remain. It is not difficult.
We already have mps pushing their version of what the vote meant. We also have big business, which funds the tories, wanting their own option.
The thread is whether the UK could U-turn on the result, or presumably remain in the eu. It is possible. All it needs if for MPs to believe that it is, in reverse order, best for the UK, best for their party and/or best for them. If there are enough that feel the risk of voting to remain then all sorts of things can happen.
May's not stupid. She's already said brexit means brexit without any explanation, so she's washed her hands of any situation which leaves us still in the eu.
Do you imagine that lobbyists, those creatures that Cameron said he would reduce (they've increased), are not at this moment putting pressure on the government for what they want? Or that those who fund the tory party are pointing out what they want from their investment? Everybody on here suggests that labour is in the pocket of the unions, but how do you think the tories are funded? And they will want quid pro quo.
This is not an open and shut case.
May has her own problems. She's got what she wanted, to lead the party, but it is a bit of a poisoned chalice. Everything, for her future, will depend on the next couple of years, with one of the most difficult problems any pm has had in peacetime.
We'll know what her intent is when leaks start being released. Softening up and checking responses.
MPs are individuals. Whilst they make up a party, they are not averse to being in a little enclave of their own. There are dozens of little groups in the party, each with their own little selection of groupies. It has been clear that mps normally see their loyalty to these groups before that of the party. Subject to whips of course.
But is there going to be a three-line on any vote? What if there is a sizeable number of mps expressing a desire to vote their own way?
As I said, I think it highly unlikely we will remain in the eu under the same conditions we are now. It is, however, a possibility. I think it much more likely that we will remain in the eu under some other form, like a number of other countries. Brexit means brexit and May can, justifiably, suggest that something akin to the Norwegian option, which was touted by the leavers on more than one occasion, is exactly that. An exit. Is that a u-turn? Some will class it as such.
If you read the newspapers you will see that some read all sorts of things into the vote to leave. They are trying to exert pressure on the government. But brexit is brexit, so what have they got to worry about?
I don't know what will happen but at this stage all options are open. May has shown herself to be the master of the misleading statement. One only has to look at what she did when dealing with the police. Say one thing, mean another. Throw something of no relevance into an argument and make that the big decision.
Johnson wants to pick up the pieces from a backlash against her from the parliamentary party. She's got a number of enemies, as every pm in the party has had. She's in a cleft stick. Whatever happens in the negotiations will be her fault, despite putting the leavers in the negotiating team. She is hoping, I assume, that any problems will be blamed on them. They too are in a situation that whatever they come up with will have adverse consequences and therefor criticism.
Whatever happens in the next two or three years, careers will probably be destroyed. May will want to ensure it is not hers. She will not want the funders of the party to brief against her if she goes against their wishes. If they do, she dead in the Channel.
If it wasn't so critical it could be quite fun. But the consequences are much too serious for voyeurism. And much too serious for dependence on protocol. This is going to be a big fight, a squabble, and it is going to be internal as much as external for the party.
I'm not sure whether we u turn or not will hinge on protocol - in my view it will hinge on the deal we get.
a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
///ajd said:
I'm not sure whether we u turn or not will hinge on protocol - in my view it will hinge on the deal we get.
a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
Brexit means Brexit. Your desperation is funny...a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
///ajd said:
I'm not sure whether we u turn or not will hinge on protocol - in my view it will hinge on the deal we get.
a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
Have you ever had those moments when you feel embarrassed for somebody that doesn't have the ability to recognise what a fool they are making of themselves a la X factor type of thing?a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
alfie2244 said:
Have you ever had those moments when you feel embarrassed for somebody that doesn't have the ability to recognise what a fool they are making of themselves a la X factor type of thing?
So you don't think there is any chance of a poor deal?And you don't think that might not make the govt consider the best options?
And I'm the fool?
LOL
///ajd said:
alfie2244 said:
Have you ever had those moments when you feel embarrassed for somebody that doesn't have the ability to recognise what a fool they are making of themselves a la X factor type of thing?
So you don't think there is any chance of a poor deal?And you don't think that might not make the govt consider the best options?
And I'm the fool?
LOL
WinstonWolf said:
Brexit means Brexit. Your desperation is funny...
But you carry on Norman the wise one.///ajd said:
So you don't think there is any chance of a poor deal?
And you don't think that might not make the govt consider the best options?
And I'm the fool?
LOL
I don't think anyone should hang their hat on the option that we will be able to withdraw our resignation once submitted if we don't like the terms on offer.And you don't think that might not make the govt consider the best options?
And I'm the fool?
LOL
Elysium said:
WinstonWolf said:
Brexit means Brexit. Your desperation is funny...
It's like some sort of zen poem. Does Brexit have any meaning other than itself?Theresa May is clearly an evil genius given the weight and power that people are ascribing to this glib tautology.
king stupid concatenation but //ajd loves it.Mrr T said:
WinstonWolf said:
Brexit means Brexit. Your desperation is funny...
And custard is custard. The differance is I know what custard is you have no idea what brexit means.It's not a difficult concept, the UK had a referendum, and the result was that the UK voted to leave = Brexit.
///ajd said:
I'm not sure whether we u turn or not will hinge on protocol - in my view it will hinge on the deal we get.
a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
The deal is the critical thing I think. May will want to come out of this with some form of victory.a) If its great, we'll brexit.
b) if it is a bit poor, with high cost to stay in SM and very limited FMOL control, with no veto, then I suspect the grown ups might frown a bit and collectively say - er this week s a bit pants.
Public sentiment will be key - if he mood is that b) is a big let down for obviously >50% then a u turn is on the cards by some mechanism (e.g. vote leave lied, no £350m or boarder control etc.).
If however it seems >50% are in "don't care lets just go" mode then we might well brexit anyway.
A variation on b) is if we go full brexit and WTO. This could be the real tricky outcome as we could push the button whilst the hardcore keeping saying SM membership is not a big deal etc. Our car industry could be gone due to factors outside our control and it would all be too late.
The negotiation team is not pick of the litter and I would guess that they have been given the job as a sort of defence if they come up with a failure. May can point to them as the instigators of the crisis.
This is unknown territory. It is unpredictable.
I don't know if public opinion is the key to the reaction of the government. Let's face it, they've never bothered before. I'd agree with you if you suggested that the reaction of the normal tory voter and that of the floating voter will be critical.
I think we will get a few pointers as to what May is considering in the next couple of months. Just tid bits initially, but it will show a trend. If the Telegraph gets its nickers in a twist over something then that might suggest a direction. Or if the likes of IDS come out with some dubious comments. What's the likelihood of that, eh?
There are no signs of conflict at the moment, a sure sign of things bubbling underneath.
We await developments.
don'tbesilly said:
Brexit: Brexit is the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU).
It's not a difficult concept, the UK had a referendum, and the result was that the UK voted to leave = Brexit.
If May was not indulging in spin and wanted to convey a specific concept, you'd have thought that she would have said: "Brexit means the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union."It's not a difficult concept, the UK had a referendum, and the result was that the UK voted to leave = Brexit.
But she did not. It is often what people refuse to say, or are unable to, which carries the most dependable message. I know about statements. Putting words into peoples' mouths is self-indulgence.
Brexit means brexit is a nonsensical phrase. It means nothing. It is spin. I would have said it was quite crude, but some people are interpreting it to mean all sorts of things so perhaps not so silly.
She's a politician. She's inherited a dismembered party, thanks to her idiot predecessor. She needs to keep everyone on side. She has said something that neither side can argue against. Not because the meaning is clear - that would have left one side much upset - but because it is vague.
In essence, she could not be clearer in her meaning.
///ajd said:
The blind faith that brexit will be amazeballs is almost quaint but sadly might not be sufficient to butter many parsnips.
What is slightly more worrying is that some genuinely don't seem bothered at what the deal looks like as like as we leave.
Posting about it on a motoring forum won't change a thing. There will not be a U turn no matter how many posts you make...What is slightly more worrying is that some genuinely don't seem bothered at what the deal looks like as like as we leave.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff